Manny Machado (Part 2)

[paul253]

According to John Heyman the Dodgers are now the leaders.

[Eye Black]

Weird that only hours after the Yankees are said to be "out" on Machado, a reporter known as Scott Boras' mouthpiece would report the team in the other biggest market in baseball is now totally interested and in the lead for Machado.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My personal feeling is that the Brewers stepped up and offered the best package from the outset, but haven't budged off that package. However, the Phillies and Dodgers are likely cycling players in and out of their offers. I truly believe that the leaks regarding who is the leading contender to acquire Machado are a blatant and not-so-veiled attempt to scare the Brewers' young GM into, essentially, bidding against himself and increasing his offer.

 

And I think he sees right through it.

[jonescm128]

My personal feeling is that the Brewers stepped up and offered the best package from the outset, but haven't budged off that package. However, the Phillies and Dodgers are likely cycling players in and out of their offers. I truly believe that the leaks regarding who is the leading contender to acquire Machado are a blatant and not-so-veiled attempt to scare the Brewers' young GM into, essentially, bidding against himself and increasing his offer.

 

And I think he sees right through it.

 

That would be cool. Unfortunately, we have not really seen Stearns in this type of situation before so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Last year we made marginal upgrades by trading fringe prospects with no future in Milwaukee. Curious to see how he handles this situation. I am sure missing the playoffs by one game last year still sits with him.

 

Luckily, there are still plenty of impact players outside of Machado to be had.

 

#InStearnsWeTrust

[Madhawk23]

I'm really torn on this whole MM situation and what Stearns should do here. Last July, we saw Theo get really aggressive out of the break and went out and picked up Quintana (the best SP on the market with years of control left). It was reported that the Brewers were very interested in Q, but Theo made the big offer (and probably overpaid) to get him during the break. That move seemed to give the underperforming Cubs all the juice they needed to go on that 2nd half run that they went on to win the division, and I think they made up the 5.5 game deficit in what seemed like two weeks.

 

With this still in Stearn's mind, you'd think that he'd want to make the aggressive move this July by getting the best guy out there in MM, at a position of huge need. However, we're also talking about a guy that we'll only have for 2+ months - not a guy like Q who you'd control for a few years. We know Stearns likes controllable assets, and probably doesn't feel like he can gut the farm system for a rental player. The other question you have to ask: are the Brewers only a MM away from having a championship team? Seems like we might need a SP, perhaps another RP and probably even another bat - even if we got Machado.

 

I'd love to see Stearns be aggressive and go get us MM, but I also understand how difficult it would be to see us give up a guy like Burnes for a 2+ rental, if there's no guarantee that MM will even be that guy that now makes us a championship caliber team.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Manny Machado at best, gives the Brewers a few extra wins. I don't think that is the difference between first and second place in the central. We have the unfortunate circumstance of playing besides the best team in the NL. At the end, I see the Cubs with something like 96 wins, and us hovering around 88-90.

 

If I thought our talent gap was smaller with CHC, I'd be more inclined to bite. The prospect of giving up anything of value for a player that we can lose after losing a one-game playoff, IF we even get there, is not something I like to entertain. I'll be very excited if they get him, but I'm totally fine with walking away from this and I wouldn't criticize Stearns at all.

 

Burnes for that? Absolutely not.

[jonescm128]

It's also important to consider that if we make a wild card game, Machado could be the difference in winning/losing that game. Then, once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen. Just need to get hot at the right time and the Brewers can beat anyone.

 

I don't see a need for a SP as much as others. Yes, it would be great to have a DeGrom/Syndegaard but it doesn't look like they will be available. With our bullpen (even if they have faltered a bit) you can have a starter get through 5 and turn it over to the bullpen to shorten the game. That has become the recipe for success in recent playoffs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Manny Machado at best, gives the Brewers a few extra wins. I don't think that is the difference between first and second place in the central. We have the unfortunate circumstance of playing besides the best team in the NL. At the end, I see the Cubs with something like 96 wins, and us hovering around 88-90.

 

If I thought our talent gap was smaller with CHC, I'd be more inclined to bite. The prospect of giving up anything of value for a player that we can lose after losing a one-game playoff, IF we even get there, is not something I like to entertain. I'll be very excited if they get him, but I'm totally fine with walking away from this and I wouldn't criticize Stearns at all.

 

Burnes for that? Absolutely not.

 

I think if Burnes was on the table for Machado, the deal would already be done. The fact that it's not tells me that Burnes isn't in the conversation. In fact, the frontrunner leaks could very well be an attempt by the Orioles to con Stearns into including Burnes in a package.

 

Burnes is MLB ready and Medina is not. Even if the two of them profiled similarly, the fact that Burnes is MLB ready makes him more valuable as a prospect. Diplan and Ortiz are both much closer comparibles to Medina.

 

No idea what the Dodgers are offering, but I can't imagine it includes MLB-ready starting pitching either.

[brewmann04]

I agree any young Arms should not be going back to Balt for a rental. I pretty sure this is not the only deal DS is working on which we don't know about because he does not let these moves leak out

[Jenkins5]

Baltimore & this All-Game crap just stringing it out. As soon as the game is over I bet Manny is informed on who his new team is.... With Hiura, Burnes, Peralta.... think Ray as of right now should be off table as well for rental... hasn’t been rumored or talked about in this deal but think he is building way back to a center piece & a good chip for a pitcher now or in off season. Outside of Average, his overall numbers are looking really good with good improvement in all areas of his game.

[JCREW]

Manny Machado at best, gives the Brewers a few extra wins. I don't think that is the difference between first and second place in the central. We have the unfortunate circumstance of playing besides the best team in the NL. At the end, I see the Cubs with something like 96 wins, and us hovering around 88-90.

 

If I thought our talent gap was smaller with CHC, I'd be more inclined to bite. The prospect of giving up anything of value for a player that we can lose after losing a one-game playoff, IF we even get there, is not something I like to entertain. I'll be very excited if they get him, but I'm totally fine with walking away from this and I wouldn't criticize Stearns at all.

 

Burnes for that? Absolutely not.

 

I agree about the few extra wins and about not wanting to include Burnes. However, I do think there's an intangible aspect when management says, "We're going for it," that leads to a better clubhouse atmosphere and better production. Manny may bring 2 or 3 wins, but the emotional boost for the rest of the team may bring a few more.

 

Now, I'll grant that it is an unquantifiable speculation on my part, but it is the reason I'm bullish on a Machado trade that doesn't involve Hiura, Burnes, and Peralta. (HBP)

[82brewcrew82]

Dodgers lead the Manny derby

 

 

So much blowing smoke. Yankees were in the lead up until yesterday, then the Phillies, then we heard rumors of the Brewers being up there, not the Dodgers. I think it's all a load of crap.

 

I'm not going to believe that Machado is traded, and who he's going to, until it's announced with certainty. Until that happens, I'm going to continue to believe that the Brewers stand a good chance of acquiring him.

I'm with you except I'm going to assume the won't get him until they do.

[mlloyd10]

Erceg / Ortiz / Woodruff for Machado

[JosephC]

I am having trouble understanding why Adonis Medina is such a heralded prospect. I mean, I look at his frame, numbers and stuff, and I see Marcos Diplan.

Unfortunately that is the part of the "prospect evaluation" process that us armchair folks struggle with. There are a lot of folks on here that look at a stat line and think they can make an informed decision on what kind of prospect a guy is. Corey Ray and Luis Ortiz are examples. The concepts of tools and projection is a difficult one for us to grasp especially in this age of instant information so we tend to focus on production.

 

I don't disagree that Diplan is an interesting comp, which might say more about the quality of Diplan and our reliance on stat lines to evaluate players than it does about the mediocrity of Medina. Either way, the Phillies value Medina highly (assuming reports are correct) and there appears to be an industry consensus around his projection. Corbin Burnes is probably the better comp when talking about trade value.

 

At least people could look at the entire stat line and a player's performance over his career to make a judgement instead of just picking out the 2018 ERA. Medina's ERA is high but the BB/K ratio is 2.88 and the numbers over his professional career are very good. 327 1/3 innings, 3.27 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.85 K/BB ratio, 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. There is not a single alarming number there. Going to Diplan and his WHIP was 1.45 last year and has gone up to 1.54 this year. K/BB ratio under 2 this year and under 2 for his career. BB/9 ratio is a hideous 5.5 this year and is a fairly ugly 4.7 over his professional career.

 

I had made the mistake a couple days ago of saying Medina might have slipped into the Luis Ortiz class and out of the top 100. But after doing a review, which was not only looking at the stat line but also going around the internet and looking at scouting reports (+ the Baseball America handbook), I think Medina is firmly in the back half of the top 100 prospects.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Erceg / Ortiz / Woodruff for Machado

 

Trading the team's top 3B prospect from a system otherwise pretty much completely devoid of 3B prospects seems like an odd choice.

 

Also, I think giving up both Woodruff and Ortiz would be a kick in the nuts.

[YelichPosse]

Manny Machado at best, gives the Brewers a few extra wins. I don't think that is the difference between first and second place in the central. We have the unfortunate circumstance of playing besides the best team in the NL. At the end, I see the Cubs with something like 96 wins, and us hovering around 88-90.

 

If I thought our talent gap was smaller with CHC, I'd be more inclined to bite. The prospect of giving up anything of value for a player that we can lose after losing a one-game playoff, IF we even get there, is not something I like to entertain. I'll be very excited if they get him, but I'm totally fine with walking away from this and I wouldn't criticize Stearns at all.

 

Burnes for that? Absolutely not.

 

I agree about the few extra wins and about not wanting to include Burnes. However, I do think there's an intangible aspect when management says, "We're going for it," that leads to a better clubhouse atmosphere and better production. Manny may bring 2 or 3 wins, but the emotional boost for the rest of the team may bring a few more.

 

Now, I'll grant that it is an unquantifiable speculation on my part, but it is the reason I'm bullish on a Machado trade that doesn't involve Hiura, Burnes, and Peralta. (HBP)

 

 

This is exactly why I've started to drift as FOR IT.

 

2 or 3 wins in the NL this year will be the difference between 2nd place behind the wild card, and a wild card spot, I do believe. He is a difference maker.

 

The question is what is a playoff appearance worth to us... or to DS.

 

After the fade last year, I think there is more pressure to be a little outside the box.

 

As long as its not Burnes I'm all for adding some 40 man roster crunch "fodder" so to speak. Which in and of itself may be some good talent. We just can't keep it all!

 

I am, however, thinking Philadelphia does seem to have the best chance here. There are an awful lot of reports saying this from all over. Smoke and mirrors though. So who knows.

[brewmann04]

I don't give up two Pitchers and I agree by all account Erceg is our only top 3rd base prospect.

[82brewcrew82]

I am having trouble understanding why Adonis Medina is such a heralded prospect. I mean, I look at his frame, numbers and stuff, and I see Marcos Diplan.

Unfortunately that is the part of the "prospect evaluation" process that us armchair folks struggle with. There are a lot of folks on here that look at a stat line and think they can make an informed decision on what kind of prospect a guy is. Corey Ray and Luis Ortiz are examples. The concepts of tools and projection is a difficult one for us to grasp especially in this age of instant information so we tend to focus on production.

 

I don't disagree that Diplan is an interesting comp, which might say more about the quality of Diplan and our reliance on stat lines to evaluate players than it does about the mediocrity of Medina. Either way, the Phillies value Medina highly (assuming reports are correct) and there appears to be an industry consensus around his projection. Corbin Burnes is probably the better comp when talking about trade value.

 

At least people could look at the entire stat line and a player's performance over his career to make a judgement instead of just picking out the 2018 ERA. Medina's ERA is high but the BB/K ratio is 2.88 and the numbers over his professional career are very good. 327 1/3 innings, 3.27 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2.85 K/BB ratio, 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9. There is not a single alarming number there. Going to Diplan and his WHIP was 1.45 last year and has gone up to 1.54 this year. K/BB ratio under 2 this year and under 2 for his career. BB/9 ratio is a hideous 5.5 this year and is a fairly ugly 4.7 over his professional career.

 

I had made the mistake a couple days ago of saying Medina might have slipped into the Luis Ortiz class and out of the top 100. But after doing a review, which was not only looking at the stat line but also going around the internet and looking at scouting reports (+ the Baseball America handbook), I think Medina is firmly in the back half of the top 100 prospects.

Exactly. Sometimes those scouting reports are hard to find if the prospect isn't really highly touted, but they do exist and they add a TON of context.

[dhoffman19]

Weird that only hours after the Yankees are said to be "out" on Machado, a reporter known as Scott Boras' mouthpiece would report the team in the other biggest market in baseball is now totally interested and in the lead for Machado.

 

Honest questions -- why would Boras be interested in leaking this info and driving up the return? (Maybe somehow it makes his client appear more valuable?).

 

Also, why would the Orioles be keeping Boras or Machado up to date, minute-by-minute, on who is in the "lead."

[82brewcrew82]

Erceg / Ortiz / Woodruff for Machado

No, absolutely not.

[TURBO]

Erceg / Ortiz / Woodruff for Machado

No, absolutely not.

 

yup, ridiculous.

[JackNicholson1974]

Its gotta be a package around Phillips and Woodruff OR Ortiz. Toss in a prospect or twi in the 30ish range as lotto tickets and thats it.

[82brewcrew82]

This team has had issues developing pitching and now that we finally have something of a pitching pipeline people can't get rid of it fast enough. I'd have a hard time parting with any of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta or Ortiz at this point. Medeiros and Brown are quickly approaching that territory as well for me.

[mlloyd10]

Your acting like Erceg is really good. He is an above average 3b prospect who is already 23 yrs old. I fully expect Shaw to be here for 3 more season after this one and Erceg is block by him.

 

Ortiz is a guy that "can" be very good, but conditioning is a huge concern.

[adambr2]

Erceg / Ortiz / Woodruff for Machado

No, absolutely not.

 

yup, ridiculous.

 

I really don't think that's ridiculous or probably that far off at all.

 

No top 100s, we keep Burnes, Peralta and Arcia -- isn't that what people wanted to avoid #1, giving up Burnes? Woodruff is probably the "headliner", which if he's the headliner, you're going to need to include some quantity as well, and Ortiz is probably a fair addition to that package.

 

Erceg is tough to give up but his last season's worth or so in the minors haven't progressed quite as we hoped, and we're well set at 3B for the next 4 years.

 

I won't tell anyone that they should or should not want to make that deal but I doubt it is far off from reality at all especially if the Dodgers or Phillies have better headliners. The Rangers got a much better headliner for a Darvish rental last year. You're not getting Machado for Ortiz+Phillips.