Corey Ray Is Nobody's Throw-In

[splitterpfj]

Season ranks among all Brewers outfielders, from the big club down to the teenagers, not including Sunday’s games ....

 

Doubles, Home Runs, and RBI - Ray is first

Stolen Bases - Ray is second, trailing Keon Broxton

Runs and Bases on Balls - Ray is third - trails Yelich and Stokes in runs, trails Stokes and Cain in bases on balls

Triples - fourth - Ray has six, three players have seven

 

The one remaining bugaboo - he trails only Broxton and Stokes in Ks, which in turn holds his batting average down. Ray's OBP is 93 points above his batting average, because of the walks.

 

A year ago, Ray was a guy who had hurt his knee, and had not hit a lick - right now, he's a guy who is showing his very obvious skills. As a "college bat" taken so highly in the draft, Ray entered pro ball with huge expectations, which he did not meet. I get that.

 

This year though, Ray has taken an enormous step forward, he has speed, power, plate discipline, work ethic and a positive attitude, if he improves his contact rate, he will, "check all the boxes."

 

I've seen Ray mentioned a few times in this forum as a sort of, "throw in", or, "lower rated" player to add to a deal - these things, he is not. If the Brewers trade Corey Ray, that's one thing, but if they just throw him at someone to complete a trade, they are taking an enormous gamble. The Brewers think he's a center fielder, I think he's a left fielder - but in any case, if he's a perennial 20/20 man, that's an outstanding player, even if it isn't what you had hoped for in the first round of 2016.

 

Don't convict an excellent ballplayer of not being even better than that - it could lead to a truly regrettable decision.

[Lathund]

I've seen Ray mentioned a few times in this forum as a sort of, "throw in", or, "lower rated" player to add to a deal - these things, he is not. If the Brewers trade Corey Ray, that's one thing, but if they just throw him at someone to complete a trade, they are taking an enormous gamble. The Brewers think he's a center fielder, I think he's a left fielder - but in any case, if he's a perennial 20/20 man, that's an outstanding player, even if it isn't what you had hoped for in the first round of 2016.

 

Don't convict an excellent ballplayer of not being even better than that - it could lead to a truly regrettable decision.

 

Well said. It bothers me too when all he's being viewed as is as a minor trade chip. Guys like him with the speed/power combination and the ability to play a premium defensive position are the ones you should stick with and see what you end up with. If he was putting up these numbers last year, everyone would be delighted. Last year was bad, but Corey responded to that year and a promotion to AA by improving basically every area of his game. That's exactly what you want to see. Age is just a number. He's still on track to (if he mkaes it) spend his peak years under Brewers team control.

 

He'll be in AAA next year, with an ETA of second half 2019 (If injuries and such necessitate it) or more likely 2020. 2020 is Braun's last year, but injuries and decline could mean that he'll not spend much time on the active roster. Santana and Phillips have disappointed, while Brinson and Harrison are gone. There's certainly room for a RF or 4th OF on this roster for those years even with Cain and Yelich there. Another LH bat and speed on the bases adds further value.

 

So to me he's someone you keep. But let's look at the case for trading him. His trade value isn't high at this point. On his own he won't get us more than maybe a rental reliever (Along the lines of Cordell for Swarzak perhaps). At best he'd be a 2nd piece in a trade for a decent rental starter (Someone like Happ). As a "throw-in" for a major trade, there are other players with lower ceilings (Or high-ceiling A/Rookie level players) we can add instead. So the upside of trading him is that we get some minor return now, any eliminate the "risk" of him never becoming a productive MLB player. He's not someone who's going to need Rule 5 protection this year or next, so there's no real clock on things, no real downside to letting him develop.

[paul253]

He'll be in AAA next year, with an ETA of second half 2019 (If injuries and such necessitate it) or more likely 2020

 

I appreciate the year he’s having but I’d like to see more of a track record before I get too excited. People have good years all the time. He has to build on it next year. He also has to cut down on his Ks and get that average up. Guys who hit .240 and strikeout every 3-4 at bats aren’t what the offense needs right now.

 

But no doubt he is having a pretty decent year. This franchise can’t afford to have duds with their first round picks, as they’ve been having way too often lately. Hopefully this is a breakout year and not a fluke.

[Boomer5]

The hit and defenensive tools are still troubling though he has certainly taken himself off the bust list.

[brewmann04]

I sure DS values him more than some here .

[reillymcshane]

Corey is a really talented player - the speed/power combo has emerged - now the hit tool and defense have to follow. I'm more confident of the latter than the former, but the next year or so will be interesting.

 

As trade bait, I wouldn't sell Ray short because if the hit tool can improve - even a little - he could be a really valuable player.

 

Again, doesn't mean he is a sure thing. Still work to be done, but it's great to see him putting together some success. I'd love to see him get more consistent - and avoid those really bad stretches where his strike out rate just soars.

 

When the Brewers drafted Ray, they envisioned a guy who could hit 15-20 HR, steal 30 bases, hit .280 and play a decent CF. As a pro, the power and speed are there. But it may be that he's selling out his batting average for more power. Just a guess. But if he can hit .260 with a .350 OBP, 20-25 HR, and steal a bunch of bases - that's a really good player. Maybe not an all-star, but a really good regular.

[benji]

Interesting thing is signing Cain for 5 years. Ray wont be playing center for a few years at least. Is he good enough for RF?

 

 

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[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Interesting thing is signing Cain for 5 years. Ray wont be playing center for a few years at least. Is he good enough for RF?

 

 

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Corey Ray is 100% trade currency at this point. Yes, I would say he is good enough defensively for RF, and if he can hit 20-25 HRs while reducing his Ks, he has a chance to be good enough offensively there. His true value as a trade chip, though, is that ability to play a good CF.

 

I would say that with how well he's played this season, he is a no-doubt trade package headliner, rather than a secondary piece.

[JohnBriggs12]

Teams usually can live with the K's if the power's there and he projects as a 30+ HR hitter in the majors.

[And That]

The hit and defenensive tools are still troubling though he has certainly taken himself off the bust list.

He was never on a bust list.

[jerichoholicninja]

Interesting thing is signing Cain for 5 years. Ray wont be playing center for a few years at least. Is he good enough for RF?

 

 

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I doubt Cain will be the best defensive option for CF in 3 or 4 years.

[Boomer5]

The hit and defenensive tools are still troubling though he has certainly taken himself off the bust list.

He was never on a bust list.

 

Guys who are picked 5th in the draft who hit 240 with way too many strike outs and don't play solid D aren't on the elite list.

[And That]

Guys who are picked 5th in the draft who hit 240 with way too many strike outs and don't play solid D aren't on the elite list.

That's fine, but no serious professional analysis I have found has used the word "bust" with Ray. There is a whole lot of territory in-between "elite" and "bust" - it's not a binary choice. The word "bust" has a pretty distinct connotation that comes along with it. He's not that, or even approaching that.

 

And I would call his defense solid, especially in the corners. He's probably never going to win a Gold Glove in center, but he's been fine there from what I've seen. Certainly not a Corey Hart or Mark Kotsay running around out there.

[splitterpfj]

Be very careful with that, "guys who are picked 5th overall stuff" - that's where mistakes are made.

 

I get it, everybody gets it, Ray didn't shoot straight to the big leagues, and he has some stuff left to improve on, so no, he's not a franchise changing bat out of college, picked 5th overall, like Ryan Braun was. That absolutely does not mean he won't have an excellent career in the big leagues.

 

Ray may never make it, his contact rate is going to tell this whole story - but he might, too, and if you've got a twenty homer, 30 steal left fielder on your hands, that's an outstanding player, even if he isn't a future Hall of Fame type.

 

The Brewers may have benefitted from this same scenario in this year's draft. Milwaukee's first-round pick, Brice Turing, was squarely in the discussion to go first overall this year, but in his senior HS year, he was just, "him", he didn't take an obvious step forward, in front of scouts that had been all over him since he was in 9th grade.

 

"Over scouting" worked its way into the mix, "expectations" got overblown, and a kid who's physical skills absolutely should have kept him from reaching the Brewers .... reached the Brewers.

 

As I said in my initial post, trading Corey Ray is one thing, but dumping him into a deal because he wasn't incredible in the first ten minutes would be a huge gamble.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At this point his skillset fits somewhere between Polanco and Marte with the pirates if Ray continues his current development curve...with the potential to be better in some aspects and weaker in others as a player.

 

If his contact rate improves, Ray's glass half full projection is still an all-star caliber talent, and an elite level talent if he can stick at CF defensively.

[TURBO]

As far as I'm concerned, we still have an opening in RF in the future.

 

At some point, we have to realize Braun is a shell of his former self, and should not be guaranteed playing time.

We have no idea what we have in Santana.

Thames is such a bad fielder defensively.

I don't believe that Broxton will ever pan out as a regular starting player in MLB. Hopefully we can entice another team to think he is!

Phillips appears to be good trade bait.

 

If one of these younger guys in the minors can separate himself and earn RF, it would be awesome, but looking at all the guys we have in the minors that could one day take that spot, it seems we have a surplus. That is where we need to trade from, our surplus.

[reillymcshane]

As far as I'm concerned, we still have an opening in RF in the future.

 

At some point, we have to realize Braun is a shell of his former self, and should not be guaranteed playing time.

We have no idea what we have in Santana.

Thames is such a bad fielder defensively.

I don't believe that Broxton will ever pan out as a regular starting player in MLB. Hopefully we can entice another team to think he is!

Phillips appears to be good trade bait.

 

If one of these younger guys in the minors can separate himself and earn RF, it would be awesome, but looking at all the guys we have in the minors that could one day take that spot, it seems we have a surplus. That is where we need to trade from, our surplus.

Nicely said. You're list is spot on. The collapse of Santana is mystifying.

[MrTPlush]

The hit and defenensive tools are still troubling though he has certainly taken himself off the bust list.

He was never on a bust list.

 

Guys who are picked 5th in the draft who hit 240 with way too many strike outs and don't play solid D aren't on the elite list.

 

His draft placement is completely irrelevant. Are those stats elite if you are a 40th rounder? Why would that make them any better or worse?

 

Years later and you are still stuck on where he was drafted. That is a rookie evaluation mistake.

[NievesNoNO]

As far as I'm concerned, we still have an opening in RF in the future.

 

At some point, we have to realize Braun is a shell of his former self, and should not be guaranteed playing time.

We have no idea what we have in Santana.

Thames is such a bad fielder defensively.

I don't believe that Broxton will ever pan out as a regular starting player in MLB. Hopefully we can entice another team to think he is!

Phillips appears to be good trade bait.

 

If one of these younger guys in the minors can separate himself and earn RF, it would be awesome, but looking at all the guys we have in the minors that could one day take that spot, it seems we have a surplus. That is where we need to trade from, our surplus.

Nicely said. You're list is spot on. The collapse of Santana is mystifying.

 

I'm not sure the collapse of Santana is super mystifying. I really believe this time it's a human reaction sort of thing other than a collapse of skill. He was on the trade block (publicly or not after acquiring Yelich and Cain.), essentially being thrown aside after a breakout season. After not raking the first month they pretty much put him in the back of their plans. I'm not saying the decision was wrong but from a humanistic perspective I can certainly see how the mental side of things might be getting to him.

 

As far as Ray, he certainly appears to have righted the ship. I agree, not a throw-in at this point. I don't think he was too far off though. If he had repeated last season you'd really have to start questioning his future... thankfully that's not the case

[jonescm128]

As far as I'm concerned, we still have an opening in RF in the future.

 

At some point, we have to realize Braun is a shell of his former self, and should not be guaranteed playing time.

We have no idea what we have in Santana.

Thames is such a bad fielder defensively.

I don't believe that Broxton will ever pan out as a regular starting player in MLB. Hopefully we can entice another team to think he is!

Phillips appears to be good trade bait.

 

If one of these younger guys in the minors can separate himself and earn RF, it would be awesome, but looking at all the guys we have in the minors that could one day take that spot, it seems we have a surplus. That is where we need to trade from, our surplus.

Nicely said. You're list is spot on. The collapse of Santana is mystifying.

 

Santana never SEEMED like a guy who was a hard worker. Obviously, this is a very naive statement, but his body language just came off as a guy who is lazy. Maybe after his great year last year he thought he could be successful just doing what he was doing and not working harder at his craft.

[Brew Crew Buster]

Ray is the third most valuable outfielder in the system, and that includes the MLB club, behind Yelich and Cain. if the Brewers are looking to trade him they should value him as such.

 

He has slightly more value than Phillips and is much more valuable than Santana or Braun at this point. (I don't really consider Thames an outfielder, he is a first baseman that can fill a void where an outfielder typically stands.) This is somewhat based on production and scouting reports; but also based upon potential future control.