Conventional closer vs. Situational approach

[Ennder]

You can make a weak case for the fact Counsell should have gotten Soria up after the second walk instead of after ball 2 of the 3rd batter faced. Then maybe he is ready to come in for the 4th batter in the inning. The thing is Knebel actually got exactly the result he wanted on that 4th guy. A week grounder that could have easily been a double play if hit even a little bit harder. Trying to blame this all on Counsell just isn't logical. No matter what relievers he used they should be able to get through the bottom of the order of a bad team with a 2 run lead the vast majority of the time. Sometimes the players just blow it.

[adambr2]

"But at some point, we're going to try to work to get him back to big spots in the game. I think we function best when Corey has the ninth"

 

-- Counsell

 

Why is Counsell abandoning the "closer " role kicking and screaming when he does so well at being innovative about everything else?

[adambr2]

You can make a weak case for the fact Counsell should have gotten Soria up after the second walk instead of after ball 2 of the 3rd batter faced. Then maybe he is ready to come in for the 4th batter in the inning. The thing is Knebel actually got exactly the result he wanted on that 4th guy. A week grounder that could have easily been a double player if hit even a little bit harder. Trying to blame this all on Counsell just isn't logical. No matter what relievers he used they should be able to get through the bottom of the order of a bad team with a 2 run lead the vast majority of the time. Sometimes the players just blow it.

 

No, I think you can make a pretty strong case that Soria should have been up after the second walk.

[LouisEly]

You can make a weak case for the fact Counsell should have gotten Soria up after the second walk instead of after ball 2 of the 3rd batter faced. Then maybe he is ready to come in for the 4th batter in the inning. The thing is Knebel actually got exactly the result he wanted on that 4th guy. A week grounder that could have easily been a double player if hit even a little bit harder. Trying to blame this all on Counsell just isn't logical. No matter what relievers he used they should be able to get through the bottom of the order of a bad team with a 2 run lead the vast majority of the time. Sometimes the players just blow it.

 

No, I think you can make a pretty strong case that Soria should have been up after the second walk.

Yep, you make the mound visit so that your guy has more time to warm up. You don't get the guy up two pitches after the mound visit.

[SomewhereInTime]

You can make a weak case for the fact Counsell should have gotten Soria up after the second walk instead of after ball 2 of the 3rd batter faced. Then maybe he is ready to come in for the 4th batter in the inning. The thing is Knebel actually got exactly the result he wanted on that 4th guy. A week grounder that could have easily been a double player if hit even a little bit harder. Trying to blame this all on Counsell just isn't logical. No matter what relievers he used they should be able to get through the bottom of the order of a bad team with a 2 run lead the vast majority of the time. Sometimes the players just blow it.

 

Exactly this, if you're going to go a situational approach, Knebal needs to be able to pitch in a low stress save situation like this one. With this organizational approach, you need just about the whole bullpen to get a lot of use. If three pitchers are going to suck in the 9th, there's nothing you can do.

[homer]

Imagine there's no blown saves.

It's easy if you try.

 

This is a spoof of a John Lennon lyric. I wasn't really making a point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Imagine there's no blown saves.

It's easy if you try.

 

This is a spoof of a John Lennon lyric. I wasn't really making a point.

Bed-in for nontraditional bullpen roles

[Ennder]

You can make a weak case for the fact Counsell should have gotten Soria up after the second walk instead of after ball 2 of the 3rd batter faced. Then maybe he is ready to come in for the 4th batter in the inning. The thing is Knebel actually got exactly the result he wanted on that 4th guy. A week grounder that could have easily been a double player if hit even a little bit harder. Trying to blame this all on Counsell just isn't logical. No matter what relievers he used they should be able to get through the bottom of the order of a bad team with a 2 run lead the vast majority of the time. Sometimes the players just blow it.

 

No, I think you can make a pretty strong case that Soria should have been up after the second walk.

 

No you really can't. It was back to back full counts with decently located strike 3's that just weren't swung at. You can make a weak case since Knebel has struggled in general but few managers are going to warm up a pitcher in that situation with their closer. If it had been 2 very clear cut walks that is completely different, but that isn't what actually happened here. On a different day that is 2 strike outs and not two walks.

 

The case that someone else should be the closer is way better than the 9th should have been handled differently once you use him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

"But at some point, we're going to try to work to get him back to big spots in the game. I think we function best when Corey has the ninth"

 

-- Counsell

 

Why is Counsell abandoning the "closer " role kicking and screaming when he does so well at being innovative about everything else?

 

I will repeat my post from July 17, as it is very relevant today:

 

April 6 - Blown Save (Jeffress), Brewers won on Arcia walk-off

April 7 - Blown Save (Barnes), Cubs score 4 in the 9th, win 5-2

April 9 - Blown Save (Albers), Brewers won 5-4 on walk-off walk

April 10 - 3 Blown Saves (Drake, Barnes and Hoover), Brewers lose 5-3 in extras

April 15 - No blown save, but Albers lost it in the 9th

 

Yes, the bullpen had a rough first week or so after Knebel went down before righting the ship. A couple dramatic walk-offs kept the torches and pitchforks at bay. Effective bullpens are cyclical, and I would argue that the situational approach, again, is not a sure-fire solution either. The best solution is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again. If that doesn't happen, look to Williams or Jeffress to start closing games more often.

[adambr2]

"But at some point, we're going to try to work to get him back to big spots in the game. I think we function best when Corey has the ninth"

 

-- Counsell

 

Why is Counsell abandoning the "closer " role kicking and screaming when he does so well at being innovative about everything else?

 

I will repeat my post from July 17, as it is very relevant today:

 

April 6 - Blown Save (Jeffress), Brewers won on Arcia walk-off

April 7 - Blown Save (Barnes), Cubs score 4 in the 9th, win 5-2

April 9 - Blown Save (Albers), Brewers won 5-4 on walk-off walk

April 10 - 3 Blown Saves (Drake, Barnes and Hoover), Brewers lose 5-3 in extras

April 15 - No blown save, but Albers lost it in the 9th

 

Yes, the bullpen had a rough first week or so after Knebel went down before righting the ship. A couple dramatic walk-offs kept the torches and pitchforks at bay. Effective bullpens are cyclical, and I would argue that the situational approach, again, is not a sure-fire solution either. The best solution is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again. If that doesn't happen, look to Williams or Jeffress to start closing games more often.

 

If the "best solution" is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again, wouldn't that apply to any reliever? I mean, that's kind of obvious. If we can get Taylor Williams to the point where he's dominant, that would make him a good closer too.

 

No one said the pen was perfect with Knebel out, but it sure was a lot better than what we're doing now.

 

I honestly just think Knebel is kind of overrated here. His ERA is approaching 5 and we're still looking for a way to pigeonhole him into the 9th?

 

Sure, he's nasty when he's right, but guys that can throw 98 grow on trees in the league these days. If you can't hit your spots on your secondary pitches, you'll end up prone to both walks and homeruns, which fits Knebel to a tee.

 

I don't see how he's much different than Barnes, only more HR prone. People fall in love with the "All-Star" next to a closer's name far too much. Derrick Turnbow was an All-Star. Relievers are extremely volatile, and baseball history is literred with closers who were dominant for one year only to fade into obscurity (Turnbow), or simply became just another reliever. (Axford).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

"But at some point, we're going to try to work to get him back to big spots in the game. I think we function best when Corey has the ninth"

 

-- Counsell

 

Why is Counsell abandoning the "closer " role kicking and screaming when he does so well at being innovative about everything else?

 

I will repeat my post from July 17, as it is very relevant today:

 

April 6 - Blown Save (Jeffress), Brewers won on Arcia walk-off

April 7 - Blown Save (Barnes), Cubs score 4 in the 9th, win 5-2

April 9 - Blown Save (Albers), Brewers won 5-4 on walk-off walk

April 10 - 3 Blown Saves (Drake, Barnes and Hoover), Brewers lose 5-3 in extras

April 15 - No blown save, but Albers lost it in the 9th

 

Yes, the bullpen had a rough first week or so after Knebel went down before righting the ship. A couple dramatic walk-offs kept the torches and pitchforks at bay. Effective bullpens are cyclical, and I would argue that the situational approach, again, is not a sure-fire solution either. The best solution is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again. If that doesn't happen, look to Williams or Jeffress to start closing games more often.

 

If the "best solution" is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again, wouldn't that apply to any reliever? I mean, that's kind of obvious. If we can get Taylor Williams to the point where he's dominant, that would make him a good closer too.

 

No one said the pen was perfect with Knebel out, but it sure was a lot better than what we're doing now.

 

I honestly just think Knebel is kind of overrated here. His ERA is approaching 5 and we're still looking for a way to pigeonhole him into the 9th?

 

Sure, he's nasty when he's right, but guys that can throw 98 grow on trees in the league these days. If you can't hit your spots on your secondary pitches, you'll end up prone to both walks and homeruns, which fits Knebel to a tee.

 

I don't see how he's much different than Barnes, only more HR prone. People fall in love with the "All-Star" next to a closer's name far too much. Derrick Turnbow was an All-Star. Relievers are extremely volatile, and baseball history is literred with closers who were dominant for one year only to fade into obscurity (Turnbow), or simply became just another reliever. (Axford).

 

You are right concerning Knebel. It's such a volatile position. I guess the point was more that the "matchup committee" approach that many hear seem to think is the magic bullet is not necessarily a great solution either, as evidenced by the week or so after Knebel went down in April, when it most certainly did not work especially well. yeah, they got better, but pen success is cyclical.

[adambr2]

Its not necessarily that the approach just didn't work though, it was still early in the season and we were still finding our way in the pen as to what we had. Look at the guys getting big innings that week -- Hoover, Albers, Drake, Barnes. Probably not coincidental that improvement also coincided with Hoover and Drake being DFA.

[NYChez]

Knebel may still be feeling the effects of the hamstring injury he suffered several months ago. That may be slightly impacting his flexibility, which then slightly impacts his mechanics, etc.

[ilikewisco]

Knebel may still be feeling the effects of the hamstring injury he suffered several months ago. That may be slightly impacting his flexibility, which then slightly impacts his mechanics, etc.

 

I would have to think the injury is still playing somewhat of a role here. Unlike Turnbow and Axford, Knebel came into the league as a high draft pick even as a reliever. I don't think Knebel is the type of player to just lose it. Either that or this is a pretty rough stretch in his career, though I am confident it's not the end of good Knebel. If it is still lingering effects from the injury he shouldn't be trusted in high leverage situations until he proves he's over it. Probably shouldn't be trusted either way until he shows he's got it back for a few appearances.

[buckybrewer232]

Knebel is just another in the long line of relievers who have the one and done elite years. Has great stuff, but will never be consistent due to lack of control.

 

Honestly, I'm surprised more teams don't deal guys like Knebel right after they have one good year. They are so extremely volatile from year to year, if you can get a ransom for them, deal them. Relievers who stay really good year after year are extremely rare.

[bill hAll Star]

Knebel is just another in the long line of relievers who have the one and done elite years. Has great stuff, but will never be consistent due to lack of control.

 

Honestly, I'm surprised more teams don't deal guys like Knebel right after they have one good year. They are so extremely volatile from year to year, if you can get a ransom for them, deal them. Relievers who stay really good year after year are extremely rare.

 

I'm guessing other GMs also know this.

 

I know that some relievers have gone for a king's ransom in recent years, but a lot of GMs may have been pretty cautious on Knebel's 2017 season given the fire he played with a lot.

[SeaBass]

Knebel is just another in the long line of relievers who have the one and done elite years. Has great stuff, but will never be consistent due to lack of control.

 

Honestly, I'm surprised more teams don't deal guys like Knebel right after they have one good year. They are so extremely volatile from year to year, if you can get a ransom for them, deal them. Relievers who stay really good year after year are extremely rare.

We should definitely trade Hader after the season then, right? Or could it be that while a guy is having a great season it's super easy to imagine that guy continuing to have great seasons?

 

What are the differences between a guy like Derrick Turnbow and a Craig Kimbrel?

 

And don't look now but Kimbrel is going through some issues right now himself. It's amazing how human a closer can be but because he's a closer everyone expects near perfection every single outing.

 

I'm not saying this to excuse Knebel, he's clearly been on a noticeable downturn since early to mid July, but he was being regularly criticized on this board even before July and he was having pretty consistent success back then.

[xisxisxis]

Knebel has never been a pitcher who can play with the edges of the strike zone. He just doesn't have the control, what he does have is a very fast fastball and a wicked knuckle curve... So many times I see the Brewers catcher trying to get pinpoint location of his pitches... Knebel has the stuff that he should be hammering the strike zone, pitch after pitch after pitch. Make the other team swing and hit his best stuff. What are the chances that the 3 weak hitters on the Padres would all get hits off Knebel if he actually challenged the hitters? close to zero... Pina/Kratz should be setting up middle of the plate about mid thigh and let Knebel go... With the movement on his pitches very few would be down the middle.... Sure the Brewers have a bunch of marginal pitchers where location is critical to their success... I don't think Knebel is in that category and if he is, then we need him pitching the 6th inning and not the 9th inning...

[NievesNoNO]

There isn't much difference between Knebel this season or last season. Really, your last reliever on the roster should be able to hold a 4 run lead against the bottom of the Padres order. You just can't walk the bases loaded. You can debate bullpen strategy all you want. There's nothing wrong with the strategy/roles, whatever... you can't walk 3 guys.

 

What I DO wonder with Knebel (and some other relievers) is when they're warming up you'd think it's be fairly apparent that he doesn't have the feel for his curve that day. How hard would it be for the bullpen coach to just rely that the guy doesn't have it today and either get somebody else loose or stick with the previous guy? I mean especially with Knebel, you pretty much can see it the first batter whether he has it or not; he only throws two pitches.

[Bulldogboy]

We all agree his curve was mia yesterday so the question is why throw it 3-2 to a guy hitting less than 200?? This makes even less sense than Counsell keeping him in the game.

[Thurston Fluff]

Knebel has never been a pitcher who can play with the edges of the strike zone. He just doesn't have the control, what he does have is a very fast fastball and a wicked knuckle curve... So many times I see the Brewers catcher trying to get pinpoint location of his pitches... Knebel has the stuff that he should be hammering the strike zone, pitch after pitch after pitch. Make the other team swing and hit his best stuff. What are the chances that the 3 weak hitters on the Padres would all get hits off Knebel if he actually challenged the hitters? close to zero... Pina/Kratz should be setting up middle of the plate about mid thigh and let Knebel go... With the movement on his pitches very few would be down the middle.... Sure the Brewers have a bunch of marginal pitchers where location is critical to their success... I don't think Knebel is in that category and if he is, then we need him pitching the 6th inning and not the 9th inning...

 

Overall I agree with you, but considering how much success Knebel had with Pina catching him last season I don't think the problem is where the catcher wants him to throw the pitch.