Conventional closer vs. Situational approach

[SomewhereInTime]

Good Baseball Prospectus article on our pen usage.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/21/the-brewers-cant-afford-to-be-dumb/

 

Great article, agree completely. Noonan articles are usually very good.

[adambr2]

Good Baseball Prospectus article on our pen usage.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/21/the-brewers-cant-afford-to-be-dumb/

 

Great article, agree completely. Noonan articles are usually very good.

 

Also, not really pen related but I've been on the fence about getting Arcia back up -- Noonan sold me on it. I'd get him back up and generally go with Saladino at 2nd. Not only is that rock solid defensively but not that bad offensively if Arcia continues to build on his recent success in AAA.

[coolhandluke121]

Good Baseball Prospectus article on our pen usage.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/21/the-brewers-cant-afford-to-be-dumb/

 

Good article. I do agree that they've gone away from the things that were working well. I don't fully agree that it was just dumb luck that they applied those strategies in the first place though. There's some regression involved, which does make their slump coincide with making different decisions but isn't fully a result of making different decisions. Seems the guy is pushing his favorite explanation/agenda over several other important factors.

 

I mostly agree about Knebel. He's never had the command to be anointed the closer, even last year when he was an all-star. This is just inevitable regression. They should be using him on a match-up basis more. That said, there are many save opportunities where it would have been him even if they didn't care about the "closer" role, simply because the match-ups were favorable and other guys had been used already. He's been quite a bit worse than even the Knebel Regressionists expected, but you don't know that until it's too late so you can't blame them for using him in a lot of high leverage situations. Again, that's just hindsight; the real story is that he's been a disappointment and that Hader and Jeffress have come back to earth a little lately. Most of the pen has regressed lately, and that's not Knebel's fault. Jennings, Williams, Barnes, etc weren't gonna be terrific all year.

 

I'd say now is about the right time to start weaning him off that closer role, but I respect Counsell for generally giving guys the right amount of leash. I think fans in general call for changes too impatiently, but Counsell is actually less stubborn than most managers when it comes to changing personnel in response to changes in production. You can't just make changes every time a guy slumps a little. In a way, talking so much about the closer situation instead of recognizing all the issues causing the slump just reinforces how much the closer role is magnified beyond it's true importance, which is what most of us are trying to dispel.

[Thurston Fluff]

Good Baseball Prospectus article on our pen usage.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/21/the-brewers-cant-afford-to-be-dumb/

 

Good article. I do agree that they've gone away from the things that were working well. I don't fully agree that it was just dumb luck that they applied those strategies in the first place though. There's some regression involved, which does make their slump coincide with making different decisions but isn't fully a result of making different decisions. Seems the guy is pushing his favorite explanation/agenda over several other important factors.

I mostly agree about Knebel. He's never had the command to be anointed the closer, even last year when he was an all-star. This is just inevitable regression. They should be using him on a match-up basis more. That said, there are many save opportunities where it would have been him even if they didn't care about the "closer" role, simply because the match-ups were favorable and other guys had been used already. He's been quite a bit worse than even the Knebel Regressionists expected, but you don't know that until it's too late so you can't blame them for using him in a lot of high leverage situations. Again, that's just hindsight; the real story is that he's been a disappointment and that Hader and Jeffress have come back to earth a little lately. Most of the pen has regressed lately, and that's not Knebel's fault. Jennings, Williams, Barnes, etc weren't gonna be terrific all year.

 

I'd say now is about the right time to start weaning him off that closer role, but I respect Counsell for generally giving guys the right amount of leash. I think fans in general call for changes too impatiently, but Counsell is actually less stubborn than most managers when it comes to changing personnel in response to changes in production. You can't just make changes every time a guy slumps a little. In a way, talking so much about the closer situation instead of recognizing all the issues causing the slump just reinforces how much the closer role is magnified beyond it's true importance, which is what most of us are trying to dispel.

 

You hit pretty much everything very well but I think the highlighted part is spot on. He ignored some of the relievers were probably not as good as they appeared even while talking about the starters not be as good as they appeared which is the definition of confirmation bias. It kind of took away from the greater point he was making. Sad because I don't think he needed to do that to make his point.

[benji]

Its a good article. I will say the DRA/ERA difference is all of the defense. Bringing back Arcia wont make as much difference for the fly ball pitchers. I want Arcia back because he is hitting better.

 

 

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[coolhandluke121]

Its a good article. I will say the DRA/ERA difference is all of the defense. Bringing back Arcia wont make as much difference for the fly ball pitchers. I want Arcia back because he is hitting better.

 

 

 

Yeah, that's just another thing where some inevitable regression to the mean and some injuries just happened to coincide with some minor changes in usage. Can't put so much blame on the personnel decisions.

 

I do agree that the Brewers were using some progressive strategies and looked brilliant at the start of the year. I liked the bullpen usage, shuttle service, and defense. I agree that they should be more flexible with the "closer" role. But they have much bigger problems lately. It's been a perfect storm of a lot going wrong and they just have to weather it.

[Eye Black]

I had my doubts this would ever be the case, but Craig Counsell admits that Corey Knebel is now likely to pitch in innings other than strictly the 9th going forward and he makes it sound like he will just pitch whoever makes sense for specific situations regardless of the inning. Also mentions Knebel will be better off pitching more frequently.

 

VIDEO of Craig Counsell with Adam McCalvy

[adambr2]

I am glad to hear he is going to be flexible on this now.

[nate82]

I had my doubts this would ever be the case, but Craig Counsell admits that Corey Knebel is now likely to pitch in innings other than strictly the 9th going forward and he makes it sound like he will just pitch whoever makes sense for specific situations regardless of the inning. Also mentions Knebel will be better off pitching more frequently.

 

VIDEO of Craig Counsell with Adam McCalvy

 

I think this is a good idea as it will allow Counsell to spread out the innings between the Jeffress, Hader, Knebel, Soria, and Albers. Hopefully this means less multi innings for Hader.

[pacopete4]

So Soria will be closing now.

[brewmann04]

Thankfully he open to this now

[Bobafett89]

I had my doubts this would ever be the case, but Craig Counsell admits that Corey Knebel is now likely to pitch in innings other than strictly the 9th going forward and he makes it sound like he will just pitch whoever makes sense for specific situations regardless of the inning. Also mentions Knebel will be better off pitching more frequently.

 

VIDEO of Craig Counsell with Adam McCalvy

 

I think this is a good idea as it will allow Counsell to spread out the innings between the Jeffress, Hader, Knebel, Soria, and Albers. Hopefully this means less multi innings for Hader.

Why? Luv the Haderade in the multi-innings role. Dude's 24 his arm is electric. Consell should be riding him like a horse. It's simple: when hader appears brewers win. I do like the idea of a closer by comittee tho

[adambr2]

Curious as to how many games Counsell plans on costing us sticking with the conventional approach before making some adjustments that we were told he was already planning to make.

[Eye Black]

Despite earlier indications it seems like Corey Knebel is still considered "the closer" at this point.

 

After today's outing Knebel's WHIP is 1.69 in save situations this season. Soria's apparent injury may complicate things further, but it seems like a good time to revisit not having a set closer role.

[homer]

Imagine there's no blown saves.

It's easy if you try.

[Warning Track Power]

Knebel has been trash for awhile and Counsell should’ve pulled him after he walked he first two guys in the ninth. Very frustrating to watch today.

[Eye Black]

Imagine there's no blown saves.

It's easy if you try.

I believe today was the Brewers 18th blown save this season which would put them in a tie for 5th most in MLB (granted that's tied with four other teams).

[adambr2]

Imagine there's no blown saves.

It's easy if you try.

 

It's not even so much the blown saves but how Corey is blowing them.

 

When 3 straight batters need to do nothing but stand there and wait and all end up scoring, you have given the game away, plain and simple.

 

Very few things are more infuriating to watch in baseball than a pitcher on your side who gives a game away on something as simple as a total inability to throw a pitch in the strike zone.

[Bulldogboy]

I ask again what team in history has two all star set up men on the roster but has another dude who is the closer? It is madness. It is madness.

[bill hAll Star]

I ask again what team in history has two all star set up men on the roster but has another dude who is the closer? It is madness. It is madness.

 

Ones that prefer using the superior pitchers in more important/higher leverage situations.

[adambr2]

I remember years ago on this board we had a debate of the hypothetical value of a reliever who would be guaranteed to go 1 inning and give up exactly 1 run in every single outing.

 

I would have liked to have that guy today.

[bill hAll Star]

I remember years ago on this board we had a debate of the hypothetical value of a reliever who would be guaranteed to go 1 inning and give up exactly 1 run in every single outing.

 

I would have liked to have that guy today.

 

He’d be the perfect “closer” instead of Knebel.

 

I think most 1-run games lately, Counsell has found a way to use someone else to close the game. So if we just had Knebel with less volatility (exactly 1 run) it would’ve perfect for that role.

[Boomer5]

This was a low leverage spot. Bottom of the order against a weak team. Knebel and Soria just blew it. Nothing more to say.

[bill hAll Star]

This was a low leverage spot. Bottom of the order against a weak team. Knebel and Soria just blew it. Nothing more to say.

 

Amen.

 

I can understand the “he didn’t have it, make an earlier call” or maybe being made that Hader likely wasn’t available, but the point does remain that Jeffress was used in a more important spot. Maybe they should’ve let him finish it, I don’t know. Then you burn him for game 1 with Atlanta, though.

[YelichPosse]

Long day at work. Glad I didn’t get to tune in today . I’d of worn out the cuss filter today .

 

Can we just erase this game thread and pretend today didn’t happen my gosh sickening VS the worst NL team....