Conventional closer vs. Situational approach

[adambr2]

I have no idea why they continue to force a conventional closers' role, particularly with a reliever who is prone to control problems and blowup outings when he is off. They were so successful as a unit in Knebel's absence with a situational approach. It's not a coincidence that they've regressed since they went back to a conventional approach, even with Knebel.

 

And part of the consequence of having a defined closer is that the manager typically seems to feel obligated to ride them out for the inning to the bitter end regardless of whether or not they have it working on a particular day. Williams, by contrast, was pulled quickly for a matchup. Knebel was never going to be pulled in the 9th regardless of how he looked or what his pitch count was. It was "his" inning.

[MrTPlush]

They refuse to go conventional any other spot in the game, but then suddenly the 9th roles around and it must be Knebel.

 

It’s brutal to watch.

[buckybrewer232]

I was thinking about posting on this exact same topic. Counsell said earlier in the year he didn't want defined roles, but that's exactly what he's done.

 

The bullpen was at it's best when Knebel was on the DL. Not that Knebel has been THAT bad, but since he's been back CC put all the relievers in defined roles.

 

Hader only pitches when they are winning and almost always the 6th and 7th inning, even if the starter is rolling along through 5. Jeffress gets the 8th and Knebel the classic Closer role. The rest of the pen pitches when they are losing. It's all defined.

 

You don't have to go to Hader in the 6th if the starter is rolling, ride the hot reliever for a few games or innings when they're dealing, Knebel doesn't have to get every save situation when he hasn't been sharp recently, etc.

[Bulldogboy]

When Knebel was out Barnes Jeffress Albers and Hader all had saved. Hot hand and fresh arm made the call. Counsell was managing his butt off and things went great. Now he is a slave to the rules and chaos. Knebel of last year ok. Knebel of this year mistake. The bottom line is brewers are turning over the final inning to maybe their 4 or 5th best reliever. The Hader situation needs to be resolved during the break. He has to be available more and should be swapped with Knebel. If Albers isn't coming back they need two more arms at the deadline.

[Bulldogboy]

What team in history has sent two setup men to the all star game?? Meanwhile the closer is blowing games left and right. Madness I say!!

[JohnBriggs12]

When you become a slave to the book, it's almost as if you stop watching the game. Williams might have the best stuff in the pen. When he has his command, it's closer type stuff and it doesn't matter if he's facing RH or LH batters. Williams looked to me that he had his command after coming back from a 3-0 count to get the leadoff hitter. Instead of letting him finish, Counsell stops the game, lets the Pirates regroup and he brings in Jennings, who's done a solid job but isn't a guy who's got lock down stuff. My guess is Pirates were happy to see Williams go. Leave Williams in there, get the game over and get the heck out of town. The longer that game went time wise, the more the weight of a losing streak starts to factor in.

[Thurston Fluff]

While I agree with the sentiment let's not forget that the only reliever that didn't give up a run last night was Hader. Who BTW didn't come in with the lead so he doesn't only come in when we are winning. In fact last night Jeffress only made it 2/3 of an inning and got bailed out by Knebel. Jeffress hasn't been as good lately as he was for most of the season. Of all the pen guys he's the one I worry about regression the most. Setting aside all that I agree this team doesn't seem to need defined roles.

[Pugger]

I don't mind having a conventional closer but when your guy can't throw anything other than a fast ball for strikes in a particular game you can't sit in the dugout and hope he "finds" it before your lead is gone. There is nothing wrong with having more than one guy warm up before the 9th 'just in case'. We needed that win yesterday big time. I hope that terrible loss doesn't haunt the team going forward.

[Thurston Fluff]

As yesterday's game shows, there is no guarantee the next guy is going to be better.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

They refuse to go conventional any other spot in the game, but then suddenly the 9th roles around and it must be Knebel.

 

It’s brutal to watch.

1000% agree. Absolutely infuriating. 4.53 FIP ridiculous he still has the closer's job. JJ has the demeanor, experience, and stuff to shut a game down. Let him have the job.

[istanbultaye]

If we're going to have a reliever be the "dedicated closer" I'd as soon it be knebel as any of the other guys. I certainly agree that Hader, Jeffress and Williams are better relievers, but they are guys that I want coming in during the "true" high leverage spots that get you TO the 9th. Knebel is still good enough to get you 3 outs in the 9th without "blowing the save", 85% of the time, which is about all you can ask for if you're going to have a dedicated closer role.

 

That said, I'd be happier if they ditched the closer role, and if one of hader or jeffress was available and it's a 1 run game in the 9th against the 3-4-5, run them out there instead of knebel. But, considering they are pretty free with the roles outside of that 9th inning, I'm not sure that would really add up to more than 1 extra win the rest of the way (unless Knebel goes full Turnbow after the break).

[TURBO]

They refuse to go conventional any other spot in the game, but then suddenly the 9th roles around and it must be Knebel.

 

It’s brutal to watch.

 

It's beyond brutal, it is gut-wrenching.

[danzig6767]

What team in history has sent two setup men to the all star game?? Meanwhile the closer is blowing games left and right. Madness I say!!

If hypothetically Knebel was moved back instead to pitching in the 7th or 8th inning in close games and blows a lead in those innings vs blowing the lead in the 9th inning, what is the big difference unless people want Knebel pushed back into a garbage man role in the pen?

 

Sure it stings more for fans when a lead is blown in the 9th inning instead of the 7th or 8th inning, but either way, the lead is still lost.

 

Move either of Jeffress or Hader into the main closer role, and it takes away their ability to snuff out rallies in say the 6th or 7th innings as they've done so many times.

 

Our starters rarely go beyond six innings. Many leave in the 6th inning. So once one of them leaves a game with a small lead, those 6th, 7th, and 8th innings which need to be covered are just as important as the 9th inning to keeping that lead.

[adambr2]

What team in history has sent two setup men to the all star game?? Meanwhile the closer is blowing games left and right. Madness I say!!

If hypothetically Knebel was moved back instead to pitching in the 7th or 8th inning in close games and blows a lead in those innings vs blowing the lead in the 9th inning, what is the big difference unless people want Knebel pushed back into a garbage man role in the pen?

 

Sure it stings more for fans when a lead is blown in the 9th inning instead of the 7th or 8th inning, but either way, the lead is still lost.

 

Move either of Jeffress or Hader into the main closer role, and it takes away their ability to snuff out rallies in say the 6th or 7th innings as they've done so many times.

 

Our starters rarely go beyond six innings. Many leave in the 6th inning. So once one of them leaves a game with a small lead, those 6th, 7th, and 8th innings which need to be covered are just as important as the 9th inning to keeping that lead.

 

Because if he were entering in the 6th or 7th inning with a fresh pen he would not be throwing 34 pitches if he didn't have it, he would have been replaced by then. Yet another consequence as I mentioned of a conventional closer, for whatever reason the manager feels obligated to give him the entire inning no matter what and live with the result.

 

And for me the inning is totally irrelevant, it's about situation. String of free swinging righties coming up? Sure, go with Knebel or William's. In a jam and looking for a groundball or K? Jeffress or Hader is good. Top of the order up with a couple lefties due? Hader. To me the idea of going with a certain guy because of what number happens to be in front of "inning" is antiquated and insane, yet precisely what they do with Knebel.

[danzig6767]

If hypothetically Knebel was moved back instead to pitching in the 7th or 8th inning in close games and blows a lead in those innings vs blowing the lead in the 9th inning, what is the big difference unless people want Knebel pushed back into a garbage man role in the pen?

 

Sure it stings more for fans when a lead is blown in the 9th inning instead of the 7th or 8th inning, but either way, the lead is still lost.

 

Move either of Jeffress or Hader into the main closer role, and it takes away their ability to snuff out rallies in say the 6th or 7th innings as they've done so many times.

 

Our starters rarely go beyond six innings. Many leave in the 6th inning. So once one of them leaves a game with a small lead, those 6th, 7th, and 8th innings which need to be covered are just as important as the 9th inning to keeping that lead.

 

Because if he were entering in the 6th or 7th inning with a fresh pen he would not be throwing 34 pitches if he didn't have it, he would have been replaced by then. Yet another consequence as I mentioned of a conventional closer, for whatever reason the manager feels obligated to give him the entire inning no matter what and live with the result.

 

And for me the inning is totally irrelevant, it's about situation. String of free swinging righties coming up? Sure, go with Knebel or William's. In a jam and looking for a groundball or K? Jeffress or Hader is good. Top of the order up with a couple lefties due? Hader. To me the idea of going with a certain guy because of what number happens to be in front of "inning" is antiquated and insane, yet precisely what they do with Knebel.

I don't care if there is a set closer or not, in the end it's about getting outs with the back end of the pen and situations often to don't work out like you posted.

 

Look how often for example Jeffress has been brought in to snuff out unplanned for trouble as early as the 5th inning and not based on any situation except kill the trouble brewing, which he'd do. Not long ago at all, a reliever as dominant as Jeffress has been, he'd be pigeon holed into an 8th inning setup guy or closer, yet Counsell went outside the box and has used Jeffress in every situation possible. Hader also used much earlier in games than other managers typically used a dominant reliever.

 

Knebel is really the only guy who has been used in a set role and i'm fine with that changing, but to think all Counsell has to do is to wait only for the exact perfect times in select games where 2 or 3 straight free swingers will be up BAM, problem solved, well, that strikes me as a bit naive. He was dominant last year with an even higher walk rate and similar WHIP, the K's are down a bit though so more contacted balls are finding holes. That can happen in any situation or inning he's used in.

[adambr2]

Danzig I agree that Knebel is the only guy being used conventionally, and I think that's really part of the frustration here. Counsell is fairly innovative in his pen use, with the complete and total exception of the 9th. The 9th belongs to Knebel. Why would you be generally unconventional and then change your philosophies for one specific inning? Even more maddening, when they were forced to do it unconventionally in April/May, it worked wonderfully.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

All of you advocating for the situational approach don't seem to remember that week of games in April after Knebel went down. I remember a bunch of blown saves, including I believe 3 in one single game at one point. Yes, things got much better after that, but the situational approach isn't the "be all, end all" either.

 

Fact is, Knebel is one of the top relievers in the pen, and he needs to continue getting work in critical spots. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't get every save chance coming out of the break, but I would imagine he'll get the majority. Which is as it probably should be. The guy was a light-out All Star closer last year. Every reliever goes through tough stretches. Hader and Jeffress have had them as well this year.

[joepepsi]

The problem with saving Knebel for save situations is he's not getting enough regular work to remain effective. His command seems much weaker if he's not pitching every 2-3 days. Hader should have been used in one of Saturday's games. Those were close games they had a chance of winning. Using your best relievers in a 2-1 game is good strategy whether your team is behind or ahead.

 

I think Counsell is the best manager this team has had in a long while. Part of my belief is based on the way he has effectively used his bullpen. The last few weeks though, he's seemed tentative. It's like he's falling back on traditional bullpen roles like managers often do to cover their decisions. "We had our guy in there at the end and he didn't get the job done. Not my fault."

[Pugger]

All of you advocating for the situational approach don't seem to remember that week of games in April after Knebel went down. I remember a bunch of blown saves, including I believe 3 in one single game at one point. Yes, things got much better after that, but the situational approach isn't the "be all, end all" either.

 

Fact is, Knebel is one of the top relievers in the pen, and he needs to continue getting work in critical spots. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't get every save chance coming out of the break, but I would imagine he'll get the majority. Which is as it probably should be. The guy was a light-out All Star closer last year. Every reliever goes through tough stretches. Hader and Jeffress have had them as well this year.

 

Yes, having Knebel or whomever as your traditional closer is fine. Corey usually is effective but what about like Sunday when he isn't? Shouldn't a manager have someone else up "just in case"?

[jerichoholicninja]

Reading through all the people questioning the bullpen management and short leashes for starters and I can't help but think, none of this would matter if the offense wasn't utter crap. The Brewer's have allowed the 4th fewest runs per game in the league. That stat blew my mind. The Astros are running away with that stat but the Brewers are .1 r/g out of second. The current combination of pitching and defense has led to the best run prevention this team has had in years, probably decades. The team ERA and ERA+ are right around 5th.

 

On the other side of the ball, they are in the bottom half of the league for runs per game, AVG, OBP, OPS, and OPS+. They are exactly league average for slugging.

 

You can complain about pitching management for specific situations but based on run prevention, the Brewers are one of the best in the league. If the offense could at least get to average, pitching decisions should be a lot easier and less "controversial".

[adambr2]

All of you advocating for the situational approach don't seem to remember that week of games in April after Knebel went down. I remember a bunch of blown saves, including I believe 3 in one single game at one point. Yes, things got much better after that, but the situational approach isn't the "be all, end all" either.

 

Fact is, Knebel is one of the top relievers in the pen, and he needs to continue getting work in critical spots. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't get every save chance coming out of the break, but I would imagine he'll get the majority. Which is as it probably should be. The guy was a light-out All Star closer last year. Every reliever goes through tough stretches. Hader and Jeffress have had them as well this year.

 

I remember one particular game after Knebel went down in which Albers basically blew it, but that was about it. There was not 'a bunch of' blown saves after Knebel went down -- at least not a bunch of blown games. The fact is that the pen as a whole was far better in Knebel's absence.

 

Knebel is arguably the 4th best reliever in the pen right now, and yet he's being pigeonholed for the 9th. Yes he was a "lights out All Star closer last year", but this ignores how extremely volatile relievers are from year to year. You could have made similar arguments about John Axford and Derrick Turnbow at one time.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

All of you advocating for the situational approach don't seem to remember that week of games in April after Knebel went down. I remember a bunch of blown saves, including I believe 3 in one single game at one point. Yes, things got much better after that, but the situational approach isn't the "be all, end all" either.

 

Fact is, Knebel is one of the top relievers in the pen, and he needs to continue getting work in critical spots. It wouldn't surprise me if he didn't get every save chance coming out of the break, but I would imagine he'll get the majority. Which is as it probably should be. The guy was a light-out All Star closer last year. Every reliever goes through tough stretches. Hader and Jeffress have had them as well this year.

 

I remember one particular game after Knebel went down in which Albers basically blew it, but that was about it. There was not 'a bunch of' blown saves after Knebel went down -- at least not a bunch of blown games. The fact is that the pen as a whole was far better in Knebel's absence.

 

Knebel is arguably the 4th best reliever in the pen right now, and yet he's being pigeonholed for the 9th. Yes he was a "lights out All Star closer last year", but this ignores how extremely volatile relievers are from year to year. You could have made similar arguments about John Axford and Derrick Turnbow at one time.

 

April 6 - Blown Save (Jeffress), Brewers won on Arcia walk-off

April 7 - Blown Save (Barnes), Cubs score 4 in the 9th, win 5-2

April 9 - Blown Save (Albers), Brewers won 5-4 on walk-off walk

April 10 - 3 Blown Saves (Drake, Barnes and Hoover), Brewers lose 5-3 in extras

April 15 - No blown save, but Albers lost it in the 9th

 

Yes, the bullpen had a rough first week or so after Knebel went down before righting the ship. A couple dramatic walk-offs kept the torches and pitchforks at bay. Effective bullpens are cyclical, and I would argue that the situational approach, again, is not a sure-fire solution either. The best solution is to get Knebel to a point where he's dominant again. If that doesn't happen, look to Williams or Jeffress to start closing games more often.

[Pugger]

Reading through all the people questioning the bullpen management and short leashes for starters and I can't help but think, none of this would matter if the offense wasn't utter crap. The Brewer's have allowed the 4th fewest runs per game in the league. That stat blew my mind. The Astros are running away with that stat but the Brewers are .1 r/g out of second. The current combination of pitching and defense has led to the best run prevention this team has had in years, probably decades. The team ERA and ERA+ are right around 5th.

 

On the other side of the ball, they are in the bottom half of the league for runs per game, AVG, OBP, OPS, and OPS+. They are exactly league average for slugging.

 

You can complain about pitching management for specific situations but based on run prevention, the Brewers are one of the best in the league. If the offense could at least get to average, pitching decisions should be a lot easier and less "controversial".

 

Yes, our offensive production has been pretty offensive. Perhaps a change in our hitting coach is needed?

[jerichoholicninja]

Reading through all the people questioning the bullpen management and short leashes for starters and I can't help but think, none of this would matter if the offense wasn't utter crap. The Brewer's have allowed the 4th fewest runs per game in the league. That stat blew my mind. The Astros are running away with that stat but the Brewers are .1 r/g out of second. The current combination of pitching and defense has led to the best run prevention this team has had in years, probably decades. The team ERA and ERA+ are right around 5th.

 

On the other side of the ball, they are in the bottom half of the league for runs per game, AVG, OBP, OPS, and OPS+. They are exactly league average for slugging.

 

You can complain about pitching management for specific situations but based on run prevention, the Brewers are one of the best in the league. If the offense could at least get to average, pitching decisions should be a lot easier and less "controversial".

 

Yes, our offensive production has been pretty offensive. Perhaps a change in our hitting coach is needed?

 

They can fire Coles if they want, but nothing will change until they get better hitters.

[adambr2]

Good Baseball Prospectus article on our pen usage.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/21/the-brewers-cant-afford-to-be-dumb/