Stars and Scrubs Offense

[Eye Black]

Looking at the 2018 season results thus far which hitters still on the 40-man roster that have played with some regularity this season would you place into each of the following categories:

 

Star Production (or at least Above Average)

 

 

Average Production

 

 

Below Average Production

 

 

I did this exercise and came up with the what is included below. Feel free to draw your own conclusions and share them if you disagree with my assessments. It is hard to believe this roster is performing with such a significant gap between the high end performers and the low end performers. I wasn’t able to come up with a single player that I would currently classify as giving “average offensive production” at their position.

 

Star Production

Jesús Aguilar (159 wRC+ / .996 OPS)

Eric Thames (135 wRC+ / .901 OPS)

Lorenzo Cain (129 wRC+ / .833 OPS)

Christian Yelich (119 wRC+ / .814 OPS)

Travis Shaw (114 wRC+ / .808 OPS)

Tyler Saladino (126 wRC+ / .841 OPS) - Small Sample Size

 

 

Average Production

???

 

 

Below Average Production

Jonathan Villar (86 wRC+ / .693 OPS)

Ryan Braun (84 wRC+ / .711 OPS)

Manny Piña (78 wRC+ / .671 OPS)

Domingo Santana (78 wRC+ / .667 OPS)

Hernán Pérez (77 wRC+ / .671 OPS)

Orlando Arcia (27 wRC+ / .482 OPS)

Brad Miller (83 wRC+ / .698 OPS) - Small Sample Size

Erik Kratz (74 wRC+ / .656 OPS) - Small Sample Size

[Eye Black]

Another way to illustrate the point is to compare the performance this season with the competition to win the division, the Cubs. The Cubs roster construction is ultimately where the Brewers want to be in terms of not having glaring positions of weakness. The odds of consistent run production increase significantly if you can shore up having the last third of your lineup being a black hole offensively.

 

Below is a by position comparison to the Cubs so far this season using the 2018 MLB Team Position Performance by Baseball-Reference Wins Above Average:

 

[Devinep]

Some of those below average guys have s lot of at bats too. That’s why if they go big and get Machado, it would help to get someone like Wilson Ramos, because decent C production would be soooo much better than what they’ve had

[YelichPosse]

Few things....

 

Shows that the eye test is correct where there are holes.

 

Rizzo and 1b is a -1.0 WAA player this year??? thats somewhat shocking. (Must have been from his injury time), but that is there one offensive hole and their other little lower is 3b? Bryant? Really? So their two best players seem to have their lowest WAA/'s?

 

Though we are one spot behind the Cubs - you can see why they think they are the better squad. Well, they really are better. By a larger margin.

 

I do think Machado would flip shortstop to the positive side, thus closing the gap between us and the Cubs to closer to 1.0 instead of almost 3. Upgrading C 2B SS with smaller pieces can have the same effect too. I think you either have to go Machado, or fix 2 of the 3 minimum. That is what would help the offense.

 

Great insight here!

[Boomer5]

Looking at the 2018 season results thus far which hitters still on the 40-man roster that have played with some regularity this season would you place into each of the following categories:

 

Star Production (or at least Above Average)

 

 

Average Production

 

 

Below Average Production

 

 

I did this exercise and came up with the what is included below. Feel free to draw your own conclusions and share them if you disagree with my assessments. It is hard to believe this roster is performing with such a significant gap between the high end performers and the low end performers. I wasn’t able to come up with a single player that I would currently classify as giving “average offensive production” at their position.

 

Star Production

Jesús Aguilar (159 wRC+ / .996 OPS)

Eric Thames (135 wRC+ / .901 OPS)

Lorenzo Cain (129 wRC+ / .833 OPS)

Christian Yelich (119 wRC+ / .814 OPS)

Travis Shaw (114 wRC+ / .808 OPS)

Tyler Saladino (126 wRC+ / .841 OPS) - Small Sample Size

 

 

Average Production

???

 

 

Below Average Production

Jonathan Villar (86 wRC+ / .693 OPS)

Ryan Braun (84 wRC+ / .711 OPS)

Manny Piña (78 wRC+ / .671 OPS)

Domingo Santana (78 wRC+ / .667 OPS)

Hernán Pérez (77 wRC+ / .671 OPS)

Orlando Arcia (27 wRC+ / .482 OPS)

Brad Miller (83 wRC+ / .698 OPS) - Small Sample Size

Erik Kratz (74 wRC+ / .656 OPS) - Small Sample Size

 

That’s a pretty old group of players. That’s why we need Santana and Arcia to come back to 2107 levels because that is not a 5 year window roster.

[coolhandluke121]

Always hated the stars and scrubs thing, going back to Braun/Fielder and Yuni/McGehee. It doesn't work. There's not enough guys on base for the top of the lineup to drive them in, and there's not enough guys who can drive in the 3/4 hitters when they're on base. Offense in baseball is like a chain, and you need to avoid weak links. That's why OBP is king, despite some lingering fixations with slugging. But all else being equal, I'm willing to bet it's better to have your team OBP distributed relatively evenly throughout the lineup, as opposed to having it skewed in favor of your 1-4 hitters.

 

The good thing about this team, as opposed to 5-10 years ago, is that this isn't the finished project; they're building towards having stars and great depth. They're not there yet because they're only 1.5 years removed from an all-out rebuild, but I'm confident they will get there. I just don't expect them to have a good player for every roster spot yet.

[istanbultaye]

Where are you marking the lines for star/average/scrub? Yeah, it's a bit odd that we don't have anyone sitting at 100 OPS+, but if they have to be at exactly that to be in the "average" list not many teams are actually going to have a lot of those players. Villar, Miller, Shaw and Yelich could be construed as sliding into an "average" bucket going by OPS+, though clearly some would be at the higher end, and some would be at the lower end. Even though Braun is similar, I'm fine with leaving him as below, since he really has to at least be holding an .800 OPS to be even partially carrying his weight on the payroll.

[JosephC]

I think the Brewer's left field wins above average is over-inflated by Yelich's defense. Yelich's overall slash line is good, but when playing LF it's .299/.349/.395/.744. Nothing wrong with that OBP but the SLG is a bit on the low side. Add in Braun's terrible OBP and a .473 OPS by Perez when playing LF, and in total the Brewer left fielders have slashed .266/.318/.416/.734 (and that's with Thames 1.542 OPS in 18 at-bats). MLB average LF is hitting .257/.329/.423/.752 and in the NL it's .260/.329/.432/.761. They have not gotten top 10 production out of LF this year, despite what is supposed to be plus-plus defense out of Yelich.

[A Swing and A Drive]

My guess is that teams with Zero WAR starting pitching don't go too deep into the playoffs.

 

[A Swing and A Drive]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

[JosephC]

I think the Brewer's left field wins above average is over-inflated by Yelich's defense. Yelich's overall slash line is good, but when playing LF it's .299/.349/.395/.744. Nothing wrong with that OBP but the SLG is a bit on the low side. Add in Braun's terrible OBP and a .473 OPS by Perez when playing LF, and in total the Brewer left fielders have slashed .266/.318/.416/.734 (and that's with Thames 1.542 OPS in 18 at-bats). MLB average LF is hitting .257/.329/.423/.752 and in the NL it's .260/.329/.432/.761. They have not gotten top 10 production out of LF this year, despite what is supposed to be plus-plus defense out of Yelich.

[Eye Black]

Where are you marking the lines for star/average/scrub? Yeah, it's a bit odd that we don't have anyone sitting at 100 OPS+, but if they have to be at exactly that to be in the "average" list not many teams are actually going to have a lot of those players.

I would call average somewhere between 90-110 wRC+ and between .725-.800 OPS. Either way, there seems to be a pretty significant drop off from the top group to the bottom currently.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The great advantage (?) of this, if you're looking for optimism, is that it's very clear where improvements are needed, and it doesn't take much to improve upon some of those performances. It's easier to improve this team than it would be if they had average players across the board with no stars. Sadly the league average at catcher is below replacement level, so there's not exactly a bunch of good catchers for the taking. (Oddly, the league average at 1b is similarly poor.). Stearns has already been digging through the scrap pile for infielders and catchers, of course, but the cases for Machado and Realmuto are pretty easy to make, if you can stomach the cost.

 

Also, heck, the Brewers are fifth in overall WAR, even with some major holes. That's really good.

 

Like Boomer said, there's some hope for Santana and Arcia, but the rest of the guys in that category in the original post are not exactly growth stocks. Though in fairness, defense does count, too, and Pina, Arcia, and Santana have at least have some value with the glove this year.

[TURBO]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

[TURBO]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

[TURBO]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

[TURBO]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

[Baldkin]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

 

I'd say at least 4 holes in there.

[trwi7]

Where are you marking the lines for star/average/scrub? Yeah, it's a bit odd that we don't have anyone sitting at 100 OPS+, but if they have to be at exactly that to be in the "average" list not many teams are actually going to have a lot of those players. Villar, Miller, Shaw and Yelich could be construed as sliding into an "average" bucket going by OPS+, though clearly some would be at the higher end, and some would be at the lower end. Even though Braun is similar, I'm fine with leaving him as below, since he really has to at least be holding an .800 OPS to be even partially carrying his weight on the payroll.

 

This was going to be my point. The only players you could argue are in the star category offensively are Aguilar, Thames and maybe Cain. And Thames and Aguilar in the star category is a problem because Thames shouldn't be an outfielder but we have to play him there if we want to get his bat in the lineup.

 

Shaw, Yelich and Saladino (and who knows if Saladino can even continue what he's done so far) would be in the average or slightly above category for me. Not stars but not a drag on the lineup like Perez, Pina, Arcia etc. are.

[Boomer5]

My guess is that teams with Zero WAR starting pitching don't go too deep into the playoffs.

 

 

I wish we had a like button. Great use of the Dude.

[Boomer5]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

 

Have you ever been a WAR guy?

[sveumrules]

My guess is that teams with Zero WAR starting pitching don't go too deep into the playoffs.

 

The posted totals are Wins Above Average, so the zero means the Brewers starters have been around league average by BRef's methodology. FanGraphs has the Brewers starters 13th in MLB by FIP based WAR & 8th by Runs Allowed based WAR.

 

2015 Royals starters finished the season 24th by FIP based WAR & 19th by Runs Allowed based WAR.

 

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

Rangers bullpen has a 3.48 ERA (79 ERA-) in 328 innings.

 

Brewers bullpen has a 3.33 ERA (81 ERA-) in 353 innings.

 

Looks pretty evenly matched to me.

[TURBO]

Also, somehow the Rangers crap of a bullpen has the same WAR as the Brewers this year?

 

This makes me wanna toss aside the WAR stat altogether. Pure garbage.

 

I have never been a WAR guy, too many holes in that stat for my liking.

 

Have you ever been a WAR guy?

 

nope

[Jaylyn]

WAR? What is good for? I'm sorry, can't help myself!

[Eye Black]

Not to completely belabor the point (probably too late), but the first lineup back from the All-Star break illustrates the distinct divide between the top half and the bottom half of the lineup. I know they are facing lefties and have some guys on the DL, but it seems like you are starting each game in a big hole if you have an NL lineup with 3 non-pitchers that are below average hitters for their position. There is so much pressure on the top 1-5 in the order to deliver runs because the bottom provides such little hope for production. Now I will be very glad to have this age terribly while the bottom of the lineup gets hot, but I wouldn't bet on it happening.