Managing innings -- Peralta and Burnes

[adambr2]

With Freddy Peralta, assuming 150 is the magic shutdown number (120 last year), he's well on his way to hitting it before the end of the regular season. He is already at almost 93.

 

Burnes' situation is much more manageable, especially given his current role in the pen. He's at about 80 innings and could presumably throw 170-175 this season -- I'd probably guess 170 is the limit of their comfort zone with him. But he could certainly stay in the pen indefinitely, and even as a starter still probably help the team late in the year and potentially even in the postseason.

 

So what's the best solution here? Start cutting Freddy off at 5 innings, skipping his starts, having Peralta and Burnes switch roles at some point with Freddy spending the rest of the year in the pen and Burnes getting stretched back out for the rotation?

[Brewer Fever]

It's hard to admit and a huge bummer but I think Freddy goes back down via either a combo of healthy returning starters or ones acquired in trades. If they continue to lose starters to injury or come up empty on the trade market, they might have to skip some of his starts so he's still available come October.

 

What I'd love to see is Freddy just flat out dominate and force their hand. As things stand, it feels like he'll get sent back down the second he has another sub par outing. From there I imagine they'll scale him back and have him return in the Brewers' pen come September.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Freddy to the pen and Burnes to the rotation after the All Star break. Piggy back them in September to keep innings low.

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta isn't going down anytime soon. It'll likely be 10 days between his start tonight and his first start after the ASG. I could see a 6 man rotation at some point too that would limit his innings somewhat.

[KeithStone53151]

I think you roll with Peralta in a starting role into early-mid september and shut him down. I wouldn't try getting fancy and keep him pitching too long. He's very young, we shouldn't take risks with his arm. In September, we have enough minor league bullpen arms that we can do 3 or 4 bullpen games down the stretch. Definitely not ideal, but it's doable if we happen to be short on SP options. I think by then we may have Nelson or Davies back to go with the guys we have...should be ok.

[Roderick]

Keep rolling Peralta out there for the foreseeable future. Skip his spot in the rotation when possible, around ASG and days off.

 

If Davies comes back, then Peralta can take off a couple of starts and then evaluate the best five. If Davies doesn't come back, then skip a start or two in mid-late August.

 

But if Peralta is pitching like he has been, I don't completely shut down.

 

I am thinking the Nationals wish they had a do-over on Strasburg.

[bensheeps]

I think by then we may have Nelson or Davies back

 

Not to derail this discussion too much, but what is the latest on a timetable for Davies? I've seen nothing.

[tmwiese55]

Peralta isn't going down anytime soon. It'll likely be 10 days between his start tonight and his first start after the ASG. I could see a 6 man rotation at some point too that would limit his innings somewhat.

 

I was thinking the other day he might get optioned after this start for another BP arm (or I guess for Miley to start Thursday). Just out of roster management type things, similar to what they did with Davies a few years ago.

 

Still, my best guess is that yes once Davies, Suter, Mileys are back that he might start getting optioned down here and there to give breaks and limit innings. Not out of some the tone said in posts above that they necessarily think the other guys are better, but just out of innings limitation and managing the roster. If those guys are back they can handle a few while he takes a break and waits for someone else to get hurt. That type of thing.

 

My best guess on Burnes would be a plan to use him similar to Hader last year and this year. I suppose if some injuries occur to starters he coudl step in but you still have Woodruff for that too assuming he's not traded.

[homer]

Burnes and Peralta could potentially switch roles at some point.

[FVBrewerFan]

Burnes and Peralta could potentially switch roles at some point.

 

I just don't see it, and I don't see a 6 man rotation either. Both have merit, and I get the arguments for both.

 

But I don't think they want to jerk around with Burnes in the middle of a pennant chase, or Peralta to a lesser degree. Burnes had been starting, now bullpen, then ramp him up as starter again? It can be done, but probably not worth the exercise.

 

6 man rotation would mean getting 6 guys out of their comfort zone. Doesn't sound like much, but starting pitchers get very uncomfortable when their routine is messed with. Not to mention you would be losing another spot in the bullpen. Mostly though, they're going to struggle filling 5 spots in the rotation let alone 6.

 

Shutting Peralta down early isn't a good idea either. I want him pitching in September/ October. We're assuming his limit would be around 150 innings, but we don't know that. If he stays in the rotation all year though, that's at least another 15 starts not even counting the playoffs. So even if you limit his starts to 5 innings he's close to 170 innings by the end of the regular season. Add in playoffs, and he's close to 200. No bueno.

 

So what's the answer? I guess I would split the difference and have him miss at least a couple starts, maybe limit his innings in games where they have the full BP available. He'll still likely go over 150, but maybe if it's more like 170 they can live with that.

[YelichPosse]

I'm spitballing here , but maybe they feel he can handle the extra innings?

 

I mean, let's be honest - innings limits were never a thing. Then they were huge. Now I feel it's dependent on the player weather or not their strength and conditioning can allow an innings jump.

 

Certain guys style (violent vs smooth delivery) can translate to less wear and tear than others. There has to be some curve for this.

 

I've never bought the "there is a magic number each year" thing... maybe just my Brewers bias from the late 90s-2010 as every pitching prospect flamed out at some point at 25-200 innings - didn't matter, they all got hurt lol.

[jerichoholicninja]

Moving Burnes and Peralta into a Hader-like multi inning role would work fine too. Call it piggybacking or Rays-ing or whatever, but the veteran starters are good enough to get through the order twice and keep you in a game. Relying on the bullpen to get your 4 innings has been working. Adding those two guys to the mix and you have a very deep pitching staff on the front and back ends.

[FVBrewerFan]

Moving Burnes and Peralta into a Hader-like multi inning role would work fine too. Call it piggybacking or Rays-ing or whatever, but the veteran starters are good enough to get through the order twice and keep you in a game. Relying on the bullpen to get your 4 innings has been working. Adding those two guys to the mix and you have a very deep pitching staff on the front and back ends.

 

Problem with that is Peralta can be wild for an inning, not sure I want him coming out of the pen. He's best working 5-6 innings at a time where he can comfortable and get on a roll.

[liveforoctober]

Moving Burnes and Peralta into a Hader-like multi inning role would work fine too. Call it piggybacking or Rays-ing or whatever, but the veteran starters are good enough to get through the order twice and keep you in a game. Relying on the bullpen to get your 4 innings has been working. Adding those two guys to the mix and you have a very deep pitching staff on the front and back ends.

 

Problem with that is Peralta can be wild for an inning, not sure I want him coming out of the pen. He's best working 5-6 innings at a time where he can comfortable and get on a roll.

 

Then he is the perfect piggyback to Suter. Suter can't go 3 times through the order... so Brent should start and pitch the first 4-5 innings and Freddy can finish the game. The difference in pitching styles is pretty drastic too, should be a nice combo.

[bork]

I think by then we may have Nelson or Davies back

 

Not to derail this discussion too much, but what is the latest on a timetable for Davies? I've seen nothing.

 

His shoulder was feeling better, but then his back started acting up. Not sure there is a timetable until his back is better.

[Brewer Fever]

Not out of some the tone said in posts above that they necessarily think the other guys are better, but just out of innings limitation and managing the roster. If those guys are back they can handle a few while he takes a break and waits for someone else to get hurt. That type of thing.

 

 

I don't see anyone saying those other guys are better. There's only one person on this site who had Peralta rated as a higher prospect than I coming into this season.

 

I'll try putting this another way...

 

If the Brewers starting options are healthy at the same time. Davies comes back, Suter comes back, Miley comes back. A high end starter could be added via trade as well. You add in Peralta's jump in innings and what's the easy solution to the dilemma of too guys for too few spots? They very well might send Peralta back down at the next hiccup and limit his innings piggybacking in AAA.

 

I hate the idea of Peralta being dropped in favor or any of those guys but you have to face the possibility it might happen.

[tmwiese55]

Not out of some the tone said in posts above that they necessarily think the other guys are better, but just out of innings limitation and managing the roster. If those guys are back they can handle a few while he takes a break and waits for someone else to get hurt. That type of thing.

 

 

I don't see anyone saying those other guys are better. There's only one person on this site who had Peralta rated as a higher prospect than I coming into this season.

 

I'll try putting this another way...

 

If the Brewers starting options are healthy at the same time. Davies comes back, Suter comes back, Miley comes back. A high end starter could be added via trade as well. You add in Peralta's jump in innings and what's the easy solution to the dilemma of too guys for too few spots? They very well might send Peralta back down at the next hiccup and limit his innings piggybacking in AAA.

 

I hate the idea of Peralta being dropped in favor or any of those guys but you have to face the possibility it might happen.

 

We're on the same page. Semantics issue I think. When I said "they think others are better" I was referring to the Brewars, not any poster saying it. Yea I agree they're likely to shuffle to manage innings and injuries. I dont' recall seeing stuff like this before where a team is frequently shuffling guys and kind of using like a 35 man team. Really creative way for a small market to get things done

[jerichoholicninja]

Moving Burnes and Peralta into a Hader-like multi inning role would work fine too. Call it piggybacking or Rays-ing or whatever, but the veteran starters are good enough to get through the order twice and keep you in a game. Relying on the bullpen to get your 4 innings has been working. Adding those two guys to the mix and you have a very deep pitching staff on the front and back ends.

 

Problem with that is Peralta can be wild for an inning, not sure I want him coming out of the pen. He's best working 5-6 innings at a time where he can comfortable and get on a roll.

 

Then he is the perfect piggyback to Suter. Suter can't go 3 times through the order... so Brent should start and pitch the first 4-5 innings and Freddy can finish the game. The difference in pitching styles is pretty drastic too, should be a nice combo.

 

Yes, they have enough contrasting styles and handedness they can make some things work with a piggyback-like system. Suter and Burnes/Peralta, Davies and Hader.

[Brewer Fever]

 

We're on the same page. Semantics issue I think. When I said "they think others are better" I was referring to the Brewars, not any poster saying it. Yea I agree they're likely to shuffle to manage innings and injuries. I dont' recall seeing stuff like this before where a team is frequently shuffling guys and kind of using like a 35 man team. Really creative way for a small market to get things done

 

I don't recall seeing it either, certainly not to this extent. The fan side of me hates seeing more talented players shuffled out for a journeyman or lesser prospect. And the idea of Peralta being sent out for a Miley or Davies is gross. But I do get why they do it. One thought that gives me comfort is I really do believe they see what they have in Peralta. I expect them to do so something with him soon that will make people scratch their heads and protest. But I think it will be with the idea of having him available for important innings in October.

[FVBrewerFan]

It would be great if Milwaukee had media who followed the team. Maybe a newspaper, radio station, or TV stations? If we had something like that, they could be asking these questions about Peralta.

 

Edit: Nevermind, foolish thinking. Even if we had media that followed the team, they would probably stick to questions like "That was a nice win wasn't it Craig?"

[liveforoctober]

It would be great if Milwaukee had media who followed the team. Maybe a newspaper, radio station, or TV stations? If we had something like that, they could be asking these questions about Peralta.

 

Edit: Nevermind, foolish thinking. Even if we had media that followed the team, they would probably stick to questions like "That was a nice win wasn't it Craig?"

 

We do have a few reporters that are pretty responsive on Twitter though. If you are giving them intelligent and relevant questions to pass along to team personnel they run into ... they aren't against it. Start tweeting at Tom

[Lathund]

Managing innings for those two isn't something I worry about at all tbh. Plenty of ways to do it, whether through skipping starts, shorter starts, temporary bullpen move or whatever it might be. Not a difficult problem to solve, and some combination of Miley/Davies/Nelson/Wilkerson can pick up the "lost" innings. DS and CC will manage it just fine.

[long ball]

They have an off day every week in in August and September. They will have opportunities to skip or push back starts as needed.

 

The Brewers are in a tricky position of likely needing to win games to make the playoffs, but also preserve innings for potentially helping in the playoffs as well.

 

If we get to September/October and Peralta is still one of their best 3 starters it will be tough to lose him to an innings limit.

[istanbultaye]

I personally think that more of the issue is batters faced / pitches thrown in a given month/rolling window. If, through a combination of keeping his starts more in the 5 inning range, and giving him priority for the extra rest days to push back his starts while keeping the other starters on regular rotation will keep him from being overtaxed at any given time. With that sort of model, I think the risk in pushing past the "book" on innings increase per year wouldn't be all that high. Granted, there is truth to "hitting the wall" as players go into September/October when they never have before, but I think having a rolling look at his workload so that he's never getting to a point of being overworked at any given time would help alleviate that as well. If at any point it seems his hitting that wall a bit with fatigue even at all, 10 day DL and skip a start or 2, and that would help all around as well. We just have to make sure not to "Eldred" him to 250 innings or something ridiculous.

[MrTPlush]

The Brewers have already been toying with innings of some MiLB players haven’t they? Obviously the current front office limits innings so thinking Peralta is going to blow by 150ish innings is a total pipe dream and not realistic.