Jesús Aguilar -- What do we have here?

[Bulldogboy]

What do we have here in Jesus?? Is he Prince Fielder?? Is he a flash in the pan?? Is getting 40 hr and 120 rbis from a guy making 500k change the calculus for what this organization can and should do?? I am not sure if he is a guy you lock up or wait and see. The bad body not withstanding he seems to be able to hold up day to day kinda like Prince. I know it's only been a season but is it time to recalibrate just what we have here?? Thoughts?

[markedman5]

I am,perfectly comfortable letting Stearns make that determination.

 

He has another year left before he is in arbitration.....plenty of time to evaluate him.

[SRB]

I definitely don't think he's Prince Fielder longterm. It's very hard to maintain a .400+ wOBA with Aguilar's BB/K numbers, in my opinion.

 

That being said, he's made a strong claim to being at worst a 30 HR, .330+ OBP first baseman with acceptable defense and no significant platoon issues. That's a solid everyday 1B, and extremely valuable.

[wildcat2237]

The Brewers control Aguilar through 2022....

 

I would sit tight through at least 2019.

 

The good news is...if the league was going to adjust to Aguilar, that should have happened by now...

 

The question now is whether he can play full time at 1B and keep this up.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

I think he will hit 45 homers now if he doesn't get hurt.

His average may dip but I don't see him hitting under .280, probably .290 to .300

I think the RBIs will keep coming if cain and yelich stay healthy.

I say .295 average. 45 homers and 110 RBIs.

A prince fielder type year but he will have to do it again next year

[JackNicholson1974]

Go take a look at David Ortiz's career through age 28. Ortiz was released (or non-tendered perhaps?) by Minnesota at AGE 26.

 

AGE 27 .288/.369/.592 31 Hrs 101 RBI in 128 Games and 448 at bats

AGE 28 .301/.380/.603 41 HRs 139 RBI in 150 games an 582 at bats

[Roderick]

I don't think you extend him. Just pay him year to year for what arby cost is. We have him for four more years. By the time that runs its course, it will time to move on.

 

I could see tacking on a year and buying out arby, so you have a known cost - if the DH was added to NL. That way in case he grows out of 1B, you have other options.

 

As for hitting. All you have to mention is that Aguilar is regressing in the in-game thread and he usually comes through with some hits and bumps his average to .300 again.

[OnaBadger58]

I have been wondering this same thing recently. I think what he is doing is relatively sustainable. The dude is massive, so he will get his HRs. He has a great approach and is willing to take the ball to the opposite field. He will strike out and walk a fair amount as well. I think a .280 .330 .510 (give or take) is reasonable to expect from him in the future.

[AKCheesehead]

Did anybody else catch the Aguilar segment on Intentional Talk today? I've never watched that show before, so I have no idea if those guys always ask athletes such idiotic questions or if today was their goofy pills day. They made sure to ask him which Brewer would be the worst boxer. It sounded like he answered "Brown" which makes about as much sense as the question. They also asked whether or not Jesus would slide down Bernie's slide naked. It doesn't sound like he plans on doing so.

[Ennder]

I didn't see it today but yeah they always ask really silly questions. It is supposed to be a fun look at the game rather than the normal serious look. They'll ask them things like who is the most famous person they have in their phone etc.

[tmwiese55]

Go take a look at David Ortiz's career through age 28. Ortiz was released (or non-tendered perhaps?) by Minnesota at AGE 26.

 

AGE 27 .288/.369/.592 31 Hrs 101 RBI in 128 Games and 448 at bats

AGE 28 .301/.380/.603 41 HRs 139 RBI in 150 games an 582 at bats

 

Almost assuredly aided by PEDs in real deal PED era though.

 

Someone just said he's controlled through 2022, if that's true you have him until age 32. You don't have to be in a rush to decide anything. his prime is likely over by the time he'd be gone. If he keeps it up through say 2020 maybe buy out a year or two of FA to give him some financial security. But the Brewers didn't create this terrible arbitration/control system and weren't the ones holding him down in AAA for years, it's not their fault they'd be paying him so little.

[brewerfan82]

Yep, at that point if he's still mashing enough you can offer the QO (or whatever's in place at that time) and either get a draft pick or have him for one more year into his age 33 season. Or if he's not worth enough to offer a QO, you either let him walk or make a play for him for less, but probably no need to extend a guy into his mid-30's regardless. The way age is discounted, you'd likely get him as cheap or cheaper at that point than whatever you offer in an extension anyways.

[Jenkins5]

Disagree strongly. He was tested often from 2003 til retirement & never failed a test. His name popped up in a report in early 2000s before he ever really bursted into the scene. With Twins he was actually solid. OPS around .800.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/when-it-comes-to-david-ortiz-ped-talk-should-be-very-very-limited/amp/

 

Ortiz always was a big boy like Jesus.... like fielder, and others who just have natural power there. Big, strong boys. He was solid prospect who could hit. He got first call up at 21. Not like he came out of nowhere. Some guys just take longer to find there stride. He really took off around 27/28 (like Jesus) which is entering a players prime when most start to click. Love that everyone who was good will have to have people say “must of used PEDs.” No failed tests for 13 years during all of his all-star seasons. Yet must of been the PEDs....

 

[sarcasm]With this logic, my guess is Jesus must be on PEDs.... it is impossible to for big, strong, guy to put things together in their primes without using PEDs[/sarcasm]

 

Sorry for rant but love Big Papi & will debate to my death of him as a natty guy. Article says it all. Hopefully Aguilar follows his path! Babe Aguilar!

[tmwiese55]

Sooo, he failed a PED test yet he didn't do PEDs, OK. Just happened to get good once he got next to fellow multi time caught PED user Manny Ramirez. If you remember me on here I'm one who doesn't really care and think things should be lightened up and all the hatred is overblown. But this guy failed a test yet flies under the radar and is gonna walk into the HOF because he's on the Sawx. As I think we all know these guys have found ways to get around tests for years, I'd have my money that he was one of them. Also, maybe he did quit once it actually became illegal, good for him if he did but I'd be shocked if he never touched the stuff and in that case then yes the longevity and all that is a heck of an accomplishment. And again, back then it was real deal steroids. But remember that like two year stretch in his mid 30s when he was truly awful, then all of a sudden figured it out again in his late 30s, yea that's not normal.

 

Long story short, I think it's overblown to bash these guys like they do. I'm mostly just pointing out that I think the hypocrisy of how he doesn't get bashed and he'll walk into the HOF while other don't is unfair. Overall, I think all the elite guys should be in.

[MrTPlush]

So even after biogenesis where I am pretty sure players were caught never failing a test we still assume a player was definitely clean because he never failed a test. Not sure about that.

[Jenkins5]

Sooo, he failed a PED test yet he didn't do PEDs, OK. Just happened to get good once he got next to fellow multi time caught PED user Manny Ramirez. If you remember me on here I'm one who doesn't really care and think things should be lightened up and all the hatred is overblown. But this guy failed a test yet flies under the radar and is gonna walk into the HOF because he's on the Sawx. As I think we all know these guys have found ways to get around tests for years, I'd have my money that he was one of them. Also, maybe he did quit once it actually became illegal, good for him if he did but I'd be shocked if he never touched the stuff and in that case then yes the longevity and all that is a heck of an accomplishment. And again, back then it was real deal steroids. But remember that like two year stretch in his mid 30s when he was truly awful, then all of a sudden figured it out again in his late 30s, yea that's not normal.

 

Long story short, I think it's overblown to bash these guys like they do. I'm mostly just pointing out that I think the hypocrisy of how he doesn't get bashed and he'll walk into the HOF while other don't is unfair. Overall, I think all the elite guys should be in.

 

“In 2009, a report came out that David Ortiz's sample test from 2003 was one of more than 100 flagged to showing positive for a substance that is now banned. It wasn't banned at the time. “

 

1st, he tested positive for a substance that at the time was allowed..... if you are going to make a case that a guy used PEDs to get good (doesn’t work that way, no substance is going to take you from okay to hall of famer.... way to much involved with hitting) you should talk about guys who tested positive for things NOT allowed! If you go to your check to see if you can take a supplement and it be fine & it is..... is that cheating? They add supplements and substances to banned list every year. Just because they decided to ban it 6 years later doesn’t mean he cheated. That is only time in his career he was flagged. He was often tested for 13 years after and never once had a positive test..... his teammate you mentioned failed tests.

 

Not normal for a guy in his mid 30s to hit a wall and figure it out again? Disagree. You are claiming he started taking PEDs late in career .... every test missed it, and all of a sudden he was hitting for average again? Mind you.... you are talking about late 2000s & 2010s where mlb was on a witch hunt to find & punish anyone was touches PEDs. Btw his “awful season” he hit .240, .800 ops, 35 doubles, 28 hrs 99 rbis. That was 2009 and really his only “bad” season.

 

Look at his numbers with Twins he was improving and showing growth. He was an .800 OPS prior to prime. No substance in the world will make you hit for average. It may add strength & power but isn’t going to improve contact or being a good overall hitter. If you don’t believe a 6’3 250 guy can naturally hit for power.... then Jesus must be on something. Remember he almost didn’t make team last year & this year it was in question. Yet all of a sudden he is MVP candidate. If Ortiz couldn’t have done it without PEDs.... how could Jesus?

 

Also PEDs isn’t steroids..... you can go GNC right now, buy a diet pill, and test positive. All it takes is one ingredient. Prescription & over the counter are often flagged as drug policies have gotten stricter.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Papi roided. Who cares. That's not the topic.

[tmwiese55]

Sooo, he failed a PED test yet he didn't do PEDs, OK. Just happened to get good once he got next to fellow multi time caught PED user Manny Ramirez. If you remember me on here I'm one who doesn't really care and think things should be lightened up and all the hatred is overblown. But this guy failed a test yet flies under the radar and is gonna walk into the HOF because he's on the Sawx. As I think we all know these guys have found ways to get around tests for years, I'd have my money that he was one of them. Also, maybe he did quit once it actually became illegal, good for him if he did but I'd be shocked if he never touched the stuff and in that case then yes the longevity and all that is a heck of an accomplishment. And again, back then it was real deal steroids. But remember that like two year stretch in his mid 30s when he was truly awful, then all of a sudden figured it out again in his late 30s, yea that's not normal.

 

Long story short, I think it's overblown to bash these guys like they do. I'm mostly just pointing out that I think the hypocrisy of how he doesn't get bashed and he'll walk into the HOF while other don't is unfair. Overall, I think all the elite guys should be in.

 

“In 2009, a report came out that David Ortiz's sample test from 2003 was one of more than 100 flagged to showing positive for a substance that is now banned. It wasn't banned at the time. “

 

1st, he tested positive for a substance that at the time was allowed..... if you are going to make a case that a guy used PEDs to get good (doesn’t work that way, no substance is going to take you from okay to hall of famer.... way to much involved with hitting) you should talk about guys who tested positive for things NOT allowed! If you go to your check to see if you can take a supplement and it be fine & it is..... is that cheating? They add supplements and substances to banned list every year. Just because they decided to ban it 6 years later doesn’t mean he cheated. That is only time in his career he was flagged. He was often tested for 13 years after and never once had a positive test..... his teammate you mentioned failed tests.

 

Not normal for a guy in his mid 30s to hit a wall and figure it out again? Disagree. You are claiming he started taking PEDs late in career .... every test missed it, and all of a sudden he was hitting for average again? Mind you.... you are talking about late 2000s & 2010s where mlb was on a witch hunt to find & punish anyone was touches PEDs. Btw his “awful season” he hit .240, .800 ops, 35 doubles, 28 hrs 99 rbis. That was 2009 and really his only “bad” season.

 

Look at his numbers with Twins he was improving and showing growth. He was an .800 OPS prior to prime. No substance in the world will make you hit for average. It may add strength & power but isn’t going to improve contact or being a good overall hitter. If you don’t believe a 6’3 250 guy can naturally hit for power.... then Jesus must be on something. Remember he almost didn’t make team last year & this year it was in question. Yet all of a sudden he is MVP candidate. If Ortiz couldn’t have done it without PEDs.... how could Jesus?

 

Also PEDs isn’t steroids..... you can go GNC right now, buy a diet pill, and test positive. All it takes is one ingredient. Prescription & over the counter are often flagged as drug policies have gotten stricter.

 

Relax. I didn't say that Jesus is on PED because Papi was. Maybe his massive horrible stretch was only like a half season then and I remembered wrong, I don't wanna dig that deep. Again, I'm fine with these guys and that they did it. But you're arguing that what he failed for wasn't illegal at the time, well neither was anything Sosa/McGuire and Bonds were doing before they put in testing. If they did after the new rules, who knows but what they were doing in the late 90s wasn't against baseball rules yet they're all POS according to the public.

 

And again, not failing a test doesn't prove anything. First when it started for him there wasn't testing and after it's been proving guys have been cheating tests. In this case the guy did fail one and then throw in all the circumstantial stuff and I know where I'd put my money.

 

And your last point is one that I often make, this is all overblown as people have witch hunts and love to hate. I apologize for bringing it up but to me it's just pointing out the double standard he's receiving.

 

Back to Jesus. Would have been perfect for him to drive in that run and get the media push from it tonight/tomorrow.

[Jenkins5]

On topic, Aguilar is just on a roll. Another HR.... barehand defensive play... sad he wasn’t put on team & needs to do final vote

[superfly]

Papi "being mediocre" in Minnesota was a product of Minnesota being a terrible organization at baseball who ruins prospect after prospect (and then ships them out). Hit it to the opposite field for singles David. Not really that hard to understand.

[jerichoholicninja]

Papi "being mediocre" in Minnesota was a product of Minnesota being a terrible organization at baseball who ruins prospect after prospect (and then ships them out). Hit it to the opposite field for singles David. Not really that hard to understand.

 

This. I specifically remember an interview where he said while he was playing for the Twins he grounded out but moved a runner from second to third and was praised like he just won the game when he got back to the dugout. Their organizational hitting philosophy was stuck in the 1920's.

[igor67]

Ortiz is about the only exception I can think of where just going year to year arby or not with Aguilar isn't the smart move. I thought Fielder for sure was going to bust the curve on big guys and... Perhaps at some point you trade him, but certainly not now.

[reillymcshane]

Aguilar is a wonderful, wonderful story, and I hope and pray he keeps mashing in the coming years. In addition to more power, he has improved his K rate and walk rate - a great sign he is learning and adapting.

 

All that said, you don't do anything about Jesús regarding a contract (unless it was extremely team friendly). At least not now. We control him through age 32, meaning we get his prime years. Body types like Jesús don't usually age that well, so I wouldn't want to lock him into any sort of long term deal. Just ride out the six years we get the guy and enjoy things. If he keeps hitting like he is, he'll get paid handsomely in arbitration, which is fine. If he's hitting .300 and 40 HRs - I'll gladly pay for those years on a year-by-year basis.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, that's pretty much what I said on it yesterday as well. I hope they don't get ahead of themselves and try to lock him up this offseason when they don't really need to

[jerichoholicninja]

Agree, that's pretty much what I said on it yesterday as well. I hope they don't get ahead of themselves and try to lock him up this offseason when they don't really need to

 

I don't know why they would. They have 2 more years before arbitration. Any extension now would wind up costing the Brewers a lot more than just going year to year.