Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018

[Roderick]

Highly unlikely they gave up what they did to jettison Schoop and Soria. If they win the WC game and get into the NLDS I think they'll have more than enough revenue to carry a $100M payroll next season, maybe a little more, and Shaw is the only arby guy who should get a significant raise. I think Vogt won't be back and Anderson will be traded, freeing up basically enough to pay Schoop. They need Schoop next year as a bridge to Hiura, and Soria is the type of reliever you look to acquire at the trade deadline so why not keep him?

 

That being said, as good as Knebel has been since returning from AAA, I could see them letting Soria go and keeping Lyles instead. Lyles has been pretty good as a reliever - walks much higher than career average so those should come down, but much higher K rate and 3.07 FIP.

 

Barring trades sending contracts out, the Brewers are already at $100M without Soria, Schoop, and Moose on next years roster. I do assume they try to trade Anderson and Thames to free up $12M.

 

Shaw may be the only one to get a huge raise in arby, but there are still 8-9 guys that are going to be eligible for arby or get arby raises next year.

 

I assume they keep Lyles for the year at the $1M salary, that is a cheap insurance policy. And keep Albers until at least late March to see if he can return to a decent bullpen option.

 

Yes, I don't see Vogt back on the 40 man roster. I assume retirement.

 

I realize the Brewers probably bring back Schoop (~ $9M arby cost though), but I wasn't sure when the timing of those options mesh with the rule 5 deadline. I assume the options on those contracts have to be exercised before the December rule 5 draft?? Also worried about losing a lefty stick in the lineup if we keep Schoop.

[reillymcshane]

Using Cot's contracts, here's a rundown of 2019 salaries. There are 30 guys on here, so not all of these players will be on the roster. Suter will be on the IR. Albers' contract is guaranteed, so we owe him if we cut him.

 

Arbitration eligible players are listed with an asterisk (*). Each asterisk next to their name shows the year of arbitration they are in. The arby numbers are guesses, so you can tweak those in your brain as you like. Arby eligible players are not guaranteed a contract, so if don't want to pay the money, we just can cut them loose. Guys like Jennings, Kratz and Perez are guys who might not be kept.

 

I've included Jonathan Schoop, but that's a big contract and I don't know if they will keep him.

 

This does not include money for guys with options, including Soria and Moustakas.

 

Braun - 19.0 ($4M is deferred, but all $19M counts against our salary structure)

Cain - 15.0

Chacin - 6.75

Yelich - 9.75

Thames - 6.0

Anderson - 6.5

Nelson** - 4.0

Knebel** - 5.0

Albers - 2.5

Perez** - 3.0

Jeffress - 3.2

Santana* - 2.0

Davies* - 2.5

Shaw* - 4.0

Pina* - 2.0

Arcia - 0.6

Barnes - 0.6

Aguilar - 0.6

Hader - 0.6

Suter - 0.6

Woodruff - 0.6

Broxton - 0.6

Guerra* - 2.0

Kratz*** - 1.0

Burnes - 0.6

Jennings**** - 2.0

Cedeno*** - 1.5

Peralta - 0.6

Williams, T - 0.6

Schoop - 10.0

30 PLAYERS TOTAL: $113.7M

 

This team could easily trim $13-17 million (Schoop, Jennings, Kratz, Perez), but we will still need to replace some of their positions - such as backup catcher.

 

Trades can, obviously, have a big effect as well.

 

Just thought I'd share this. I'm not advocating for specific moves - just trying to understand where will be salary-wise for 2019.

[Roderick]

I've included Jonathan Schoop, but that's a big contract and I don't know if they will keep him.

 

This does not include money for guys with options, including Soria and Moustakas.

 

.....

30 PLAYERS TOTAL: $113.7M

 

This team could easily trim $13-17 million (Schoop, Jennings, Kratz, Perez), but we will still need to replace some of their positions - such as backup catcher.

 

Trades can, obviously, have a big effect as well.

 

Just thought I'd share this. I'm not advocating for specific moves - just trying to understand where will be salary-wise for 2019.

 

I would hope Nottingham gets backup catcher position - so min. wage. If he can't handle it, then you have to find a trade. But, this is unclear considering that Kratz is getting a lot more time than Pina (if Pina is not limited by injury).

 

You basically have to add $2.2M for Jeffress incentives that we assume he will earn. And if you like total accounting, include the Garza payment of $2M.

 

I would actually rather keep Moose at $14M (net cost) versus Schoop at $9-$10M arby amount (assuming Shaw is okay with 2B and the double switches out of game in late situations for defense). I think Moose's defensive advantage on Shaw more than makes up for Shaw at 2B. And I love having another lefty bat. I am assuming that Moose will be at .800 OPS rather than the .770 so far for us.

[ZBTMP]

A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.

[And That]

A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.

I feel as though people are completely glossing over the season Jon Olczak has had. His curve is nasty.

[Outlander]

LOL, if And That gives the seal of approval I imagine quite a few other teams are looking at him as well. Not that I have any idea what Stearns is thinking but I think Olczak gets protected.

[ZBTMP]

A quick examination of this thread, I came up with only Clancy advocating for Olczak or even mentioning his possibility. Given his recent AFL effort on top of a strong season at AA, seems more and more likely to be protected.

I feel as though people are completely glossing over the season Jon Olczak has had. His curve is nasty.

 

I said quickly not thoroughly.

[JohnBriggs12]

LOL, if And That gives the seal of approval I imagine quite a few other teams are looking at him as well. Not that I have any idea what Stearns is thinking but I think Olczak gets protected.

 

If Stearns did what he did in 2018, he'll want 4-5 interchangeable rostered arms to fill the last spot in the pen, rotating them often. Olczak logically likely fits into those plans. It's a proving ground for young arms and it saves the pen overall.

[Mass Haas]

Here's a list of the Brewers' players eligible for Rule 5 this fall.

 

Alphabetical within current level.

 

SAN ANTONIO:

 

RHP Tristan Archer

RHP Bubba Derby

INF Jake Hager

UT Nate Orf

LHP Quintin-Torres-Costa

RHP Dan Reynolds

 

BILOXI:

 

IF Blake Allemand

SS Luis Aviles, Jr.

1B Jake Gatewood

RHP Preston Gainey

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Conor Harber

LHP Brad Kuntz

C Carlos Leal

C Max McDowell

RHP Jon Olczak

RHP Cody Ponce

RHP Tyler Spurlin

OF Troy Stokes, Jr.

RHP Trey Supak

OF Dillon Thomas

 

CAROLINA:

 

RHP Rodrigo Benoit

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Nattino Diplan

LHP Jake Drossner

RHP Alec Kenilvort

LHP Nathan Kirby

IF Tucker Neuhaus

RHP Jorge Ortega (would normally be a minor league free agent, but signed a deal through 2019 as he was rehabbing Tommy John)

LHP Drake Owenby

LHP Angel Perdomo

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez

OF Joantgel Segovia

LHP Christian Trent

RHP Josh Uhen

RHP Devin Williams

 

WISCONSIN:

 

OF Jay Feliciano

RHP Nelson Hernandez

RHP Carlos Herrera

RHP Christian Meister

RHP Michael Petersen

OF Nic Pierre

 

COLORADO SPRINGS / MARYVALE:

 

RHP Jesus Brea

RHP Carlos Luna

IF Julio Mendez

 

Brewers current 40-man roster is at 37, players must be protected for Rule 5 on November 20th.

 

The deadline to non-tender arbitration eligible players follows that date by ten days, November 30th, so unless the Brewers take action in that regard early, there is only room for limited adds.

 

With Torres-Costa sidelined by Tommy John, other names of consideration are certainly worthy of discussion -- Derby, Gatewood, Harber, Olczak, Ponce, Stokes, Supak.

 

In the end, I'll roll with the Supak and Olczak prediction only.

 

2018 proved how valuable having 40-man pitchers with options who can contribute in the current year is. With scarce room overall, others may not get the additions some fans predicted.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Kratz and Suter could easily be moved off the 40 man. Wilkerson too. However, I agree there are not too many players that need to be added. Only ones for sure, IMO, are Supak and Stokes. I could get on board with Olzak and even Derby to help fill out the pen rotation.

[Mass Haas]

In the end, I'll roll with the Supak and Olczak prediction only.

 

OK, I see you, Troy Stokes

[clancyphile]

In the end, I'll roll with the Supak and Olczak prediction only.

 

OK, I see you, Troy Stokes

 

Stokes is someone they need to protect, even if they have to DFA someone to do it.

[RollieTime]

I am thinking that Stokes will either be protected or packaged in a trade prior to the draft. He is too talented to risk being exposed in the draft. Stokes has quite a bit of value as a second or third piece in a bigger trade.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I’ll guess:

Lock: Trey Supak

Likely: Troy Stokes

Pick one of two: Jon Olczak, Conor Harber

Wild card: QTC

25/75 against: Jake Gatewood, Nathan Kirby, Max McDowell, Cody Ponce

Unlikely but not inconceivable: Devin Williams, Phil Bickford, Bubba Derby

[clancyphile]

I am thinking that Stokes will either be protected or packaged in a trade prior to the draft. He is too talented to risk being exposed in the draft. Stokes has quite a bit of value as a second or third piece in a bigger trade.

 

Someone earlier noted that Stokes to the A's might be a match... in a way, Stokes is arguably a Khris Davis who can play defense. The big difference: Stokes was drafted by the Brewers out of high school, and developed his power later in his professional career (years three and four).

 

If anything, he is a legit OF bench option... and I like him over Taylor for his OBP skills.

[billymac]

I am thinking that Stokes will either be protected or packaged in a trade prior to the draft. He is too talented to risk being exposed in the draft. Stokes has quite a bit of value as a second or third piece in a bigger trade.

 

Someone earlier noted that Stokes to the A's might be a match... in a way, Stokes is arguably a Khris Davis who can play defense. The big difference: Stokes was drafted by the Brewers out of high school, and developed his power later in his professional career (years three and four).

 

If anything, he is a legit OF bench option... and I like him over Taylor for his OBP skills.

 

Clancy, I remember you were in on Stokes years ago when no one was talking about him, good call

[clancyphile]

Someone earlier noted that Stokes to the A's might be a match... in a way, Stokes is arguably a Khris Davis who can play defense. The big difference: Stokes was drafted by the Brewers out of high school, and developed his power later in his professional career (years three and four).

 

If anything, he is a legit OF bench option... and I like him over Taylor for his OBP skills.

 

Clancy, I remember you were in on Stokes years ago when no one was talking about him, good call

 

Stokes has managed to exceed my expectations. I had him pegged as a Brady Clark type, a 4th OF who could bring OBP skills, some speed, and doubles power. I didn't expect him to develop the power he has.

[JDBrewCrew]

Robert Murray

Verified account

@ByRobertMurray

1m1 minute ago

#Brewers have added OF Troy Stokes Jr. and RHP Trey Supak to the 40-man roster, protecting them from Rule 5 eligibility, source tells The Athletic.

[clancyphile]

Robert Murray

Verified account

@ByRobertMurray

1m1 minute ago

#Brewers have added OF Troy Stokes Jr. and RHP Trey Supak to the 40-man roster, protecting them from Rule 5 eligibility, source tells The Athletic.

 

Mark my words, I bet it will be Taylor, not Stokes, who is dealt.

 

Interestingly, they have an open 40-man space...

[CheeseheadInQC]

Robert Murray

Verified account

@ByRobertMurray

1m1 minute ago

#Brewers have added OF Troy Stokes Jr. and RHP Trey Supak to the 40-man roster, protecting them from Rule 5 eligibility, source tells The Athletic.

Interesting. I really thought a second pitcher would be added as well, assuming this is the full list. There are a fair number of guys who it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see picked, but no one like Diaz who was nearly a lock.

[Outlander]

Would not be surprised if Stearns still adds another player, by the end of the day either within the organization or by trading for a 40 man guy from another team that would otherwise be DFA.

[clancyphile]

Would not be surprised if Stearns still adds another player, by the end of the day either within the organization or by trading for a 40 man guy from another team that would otherwise be DFA.

 

One high-contact catcher I've liked isn't on the Mets' 40-man roster, though...

[Roderick]

Question? If they put Olczak on the 40 man roster, and then loved someone from another team they wanted to draft. Could they then drop a Jennings/Kratz/Saladino/Wilkerson to draft that player? Or if you are at 40 today, you can't draft anyone?

[And That]

You can draft as many players in the Rule 5 as you have open 40-man spots. You can clear 40-man space up to the day of the draft.

[And That]

Here are the players the Brewers protected from the AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft, but can be selected in the MLB phase: