Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018

[Mass Haas]

Removed from the initial list in this thread:

 

LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Luis Ortiz (traded)

 

RHP Jose Cuas (released)

[Outlander]

The 40 man has certainly gotten more manageable. I would protect Costa, Stokes, Supak and Ponce with Devin Williams being borderline.

[OnaBadger58]

The 40 man has certainly gotten more manageable. I would protect Costa, Stokes, Supak and Ponce with Devin Williams being borderline.

I think I'd take Bickford over Ponce, but I agree with everything else.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For Sure Protect:

Ponce

Supak

Stokes

 

Maybe:

Derby

Torres-Costa

McDowell

Kirby

D. Williams

Herrera

 

This list has gotten a lot more manageable lately. I think Supak and Stokes are taken for sure if left unprotected, and Ponce wouldn't surprise me, as he profiles as an eventual durable mid-rotation innings eater. Derby isn't special, but he has youth on his side, and has been holding his own at AAA. Torres-Costa could be easily kept as a LOOGY. McDowell is such a terrific defender (maybe the best defensive C in the minors) that anything he adds with the bat may be gravy. I know Kirby hasn't done much, but it would be horrible to lose that arm after he finally made it back. Williams and Herrera are exactly the type of guys teams look for in the Rule 5 that can be hidden as the 7th or 8th reliever. Electric arms.

[Hammer]

Question: if the Brewers are having these issues there have to be other, more highly rated, teams that have it worse...right? Wouldn't the top rated minor league lists have the same (or worse) issue? What about San Diego, Atlanta, Toronto...etc?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Question: if the Brewers are having these issues there have to be other, more highly rated, teams that have it worse...right? Wouldn't the top rated minor league lists have the same (or worse) issue? What about San Diego, Atlanta, Toronto...etc?

 

Not necessarily. San Diego and Atlanta have a ton of lower level minor leaguers that are highly ranked that they don't have to worry about losing for awhile. I know the Yankees are in a very similar situation to the Brewers regarding Rule 5 protection, and they have probably been even more proactive in moving some of those guys.

[CheeseheadInQC]

With the number of guys who have to be protected pared down a bit, one thing this will do is give an idea of how the Brewers evaluate their own guys. It wouldn't even shock me if someone like Harber gets protected over bigger names like Bickford, Ponce, Williams and Kirby. It should be interesting.

 

I'll add that I kind of hope Harber either gets protected or doesn't get selected just because I find him bizarrely compelling to follow. I can't remember ever seeing a guy shift from start to start between high strikeout, high walk and extreme pitch to contact the way he was earlier in the season.

[angel peña]

segovia could be protected is an interesting project

[JosephC]

I don't see this as a issue at all. A couple months back I took at the 40 man and figured they would only be one spot short if Burnes was promoted early. That happened but since then at least five spots have opened up and only one more taken for next year. Villar, Phillips and Lopez all off the 40-man. Ortiz and Medeiros now out of the equation. Schoop has to be accounted for, assuming he isn't traded again this off-season (Brewers might want to move his salary).

 

40 man probably looks something like this once it gets into the off-season:

Pitchers (19) = Albers, Anderson, Barnes, Burnes, Chacin, Davies, Diplan, Guerra, Hader, Houser, Jeffress, Jennings, Knebel, Miley, Nelson, Peralta, Suter, Williams, Woodruff (Soria option unlikely to be picked up, Asher and Wilkinson off the 40 man)

Catcher (3) = Nottingham, Pina (Kratz likely off and a different veteran catcher picked up)

Infield (7) = Aguilar, Arcia, Dubon, Perez, Schoop, Shaw, Thames (Moustakas option unlikely to be picked up, Orf and Saladino off the 40 man)

Outfield (5) = Braun, Broxton, Cain, Santana, Yelich

 

Approximate total = 34

 

Not really interested in debating any particular player or off-season acquisitions here. For example, if the Brewers go for a big pitching upgrade, that add would probably knock Wade Miley off of the list, etc. On the flip side, they could look to upgrade catcher but then a MLB piece (maybe someone like Schoop or Thames) that has value could be included in the deal. There are many different variations and moves that will be made but I think 34 is a pretty fair estimate of how it will shake out.

 

Currently there are only 4 players that I would protect. Cody Ponce, Troy Stokes, Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa. Regarding Stokes, I like him but I don't think there is a future for him in Milwaukee with Yelich and Cain being long-term commitments. He only gets protected due to the speculated trade value he may have. I would have included Gatewood strictly for trade value as well, but I just can't see a team Rule 5'ing an injured first baseman who struggles to post a .300 OBP. Many of the other names that get thrown in there, like Phil Bickford, frankly I'm a bit surprised that names like that come up at all. Other names I can understand, like Perrin, but I just don't see there being enough MLB upside there to lose sleep over if he would get Rule 5'ed by another team.

 

Personally, I think the Brewers are in pretty decent shape to have 38 players on the 40 man roster when the Rule 5 draft arrives.

[And That]

Miley is a free agent.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I agree Derby and Perrin are unlikely to be taken so no need to be protected. However, a team could select them with the intent of putting them in the bullpen and if it does not work out, no harm just return them to the brewers. They are both close enough to the majors that they could be considered for a bullpen role.

 

This is similar to a waiver claim of a player that is out of options. So I guess it is possible the Brewers might want to protect them. Even so, they should have room on the 40 to protect who they need.

[LouisEly]

The Brewers are not in a position to carry a Rule 5 pick on the roster next year (or likely any of the next four years for that matter), so no reason to go into the Rule 5 draft with less than a full 40-man roster unless there is some type of imminent trade that would send an unprotected player for a 40-man roster player. Worry about NRIs making the team in late March if it happens.

 

Miguel Diaz had a disastrous 2017 in the majors, but pitched really well at AA this year before the callup to AAA. Still wish the Brewers had him in the fold, as those AA numbers could have made for a decent trade chip (or perhaps allowed the Brewers to keep Medeiros).

 

As historically bad as BAL and KCR are, and with CHW and SDP not that far behind (ahead?), I could see a few more Rule 5 guys than normal being kept next year. Not worth the risk of losing anyone. Add Bethancourt (need 3 catchers) and as many pitchers as possible.

 

Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.

 

Edit: forgot they have to re-add Nelson. 50/50 on Suter as he will miss all of 2019, but I could see the Orioles/Royals claim him and 60-day DL him for all of 2019. So that makes 4/5 adds.

[markedman5]

Not sure how many spots will be open, but if I were to force rank them - with the caveat that it's easier to hide pitchers, especially lefties, than position players on a 25-man roster:

 

Ortiz

Medeiros

Supak

Kirby

QTC (this is the end of the "must-protect" list)

Ponce

D. Williams

Derby

Stokes

Bickford

Perrin

Gatewood

Harber

 

No way they'll have that many spaces available. Would be nice to package a few of the borderline guys in a trade; better than losing them. With so many bad teams this year I think a few more Rule 5 guys will be kept next year than usual.

 

If I were DS I'd offer two of anyone on that list between Derby and Harber in front of the Rays and see if that could rent Ramos.

 

Just traded one of the borderline guys

 

[MoreTrife]

Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

[MoreTrife]

Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.

 

 

 

Called it.

[djoctagone]

Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

if they were rule 5 draft eligible coming in to the 2018 offseason, if not protected by their new team by the fall deadline, they could be drafted by another team--including the brewers.

[MoreTrife]

Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

if they were rule 5 draft eligible coming in to the 2018 offseason, if not protected by their new team by the fall deadline, they could be drafted by another team--including the brewers.

 

Interesting, thanks. And does protecting them mean 25 man or 40 man roster?

[bork]

They have to be protected on their team's 40 man roster to avoid being taken in the rule 5 draft. But if they aren't protected and the Brewers were to select one of them, then they would have to stay on the Brewers' 25 man roster all year.

[LouisEly]

Right now I see six openings - drop: Asher, Kratz, Orf, and one of Saladino/Perez. Add Bethancourt, Supak, Kirby, QT-C, and two of Ponce/D. Williams/Bickford/Harber, and try to deal Stokes and others (Perrin, Derby) for lower-level prospects who don't need to be protected.

 

Called it.

Now for my next trick, Stokes to the A's for a lower-level prospect.

 

The A's did alright the last time they acquired a short, weak-armed LF with some power from the Brewers.

[Greenleaf1]

Quick question: If any of our Rule 5 guys are traded, like Medieros and Ortiz and now Perrin was, do they have to be on their new team's 40 man roster next year?

 

Yes.

[Roderick]

Looks to me, we could be freeing up to 9 spots on roster.

 

Soria, Miley, Gio, Kratz, Moose, Saladino, Schoop, Grandyman and Suter (yes take that risk). Not sure on the timing of the options for Moose, etc and how they relate to Rule 5 timeline.

 

Would keep: QTC, Supak, Derby, Gatewood, Ponce, Stokes Bubble guys: Bickford, Kirby, Williams, Harber.

 

What would be the deal with Nick Ramirez? I assume he would have to be protected also, right? Or is he so far past this point already, it is more of a free agent, year to year thing?

[Outlander]

Ramirez is a free agent but could be rule 5 eligible if he signs a minor league contract before the draft.

[LouisEly]

Highly unlikely they gave up what they did to jettison Schoop and Soria. If they win the WC game and get into the NLDS I think they'll have more than enough revenue to carry a $100M payroll next season, maybe a little more, and Shaw is the only arby guy who should get a significant raise. I think Vogt won't be back and Anderson will be traded, freeing up basically enough to pay Schoop. They need Schoop next year as a bridge to Hiura, and Soria is the type of reliever you look to acquire at the trade deadline so why not keep him?

 

That being said, as good as Knebel has been since returning from AAA, I could see them letting Soria go and keeping Lyles instead. Lyles has been pretty good as a reliever - walks much higher than career average so those should come down, but much higher K rate and 3.07 FIP.

[Mass Haas]

By the way, the initial post in this thread has been kept updated and is accurate.

[clancyphile]

I see them dropping:

Lyles, Granderson, Kratz, Albers, Wilkerson, Jennings, Vogt, and Saladino

 

Suter and Nelson return from 60-day DL, taking the Lyles ans Granderson spots

 

They put QTC, Stokes, Gatewood, Supak, Olczak, and Derby on.