Max Scherzer

[Eye Black]

Before you roll your eyes (probably too late), just hear me out here. The Nationals have been hovering around .500. Lets say hypothetically they have a horrible next three weeks and fall several games below .500. In this hypothetical scenario they decide to take offers for both Bryce Harper as a rental as well as Max Scherzer. If your initial reaction is, “this is stupid and could never happen,” then fair enough, but this probably isn’t the thread for you. If you are willing, however, to entertain the hypothetical...

 

My specific question: What is Max Scherzer’s realistic trade value if the Nationals made him available, but refused to take on any of his remaining salary? He is obviously a no doubt front of the rotation ace. Beyond the $10 million he will make for the remainder of this season, he is also owed an AAV of just over $42 million for each of the next three seasons. Those will be his age 34-36 seasons.

 

I am having trouble balancing these competing positives and negatives. On one hand you are getting arguably the best current starting pitcher in MLB. On the other hand it is a $137 million payroll commitment over the next 3.5 years for an aging pitcher. I lean towards him still having plenty of value, but I am curious what type of return trade value others think Scherzer would bring back in this hypothetical scenario (whether in terms of a Brewers offer and just a general framework such as “two top 50 prospects”)?

 

For those willing to humor me on this topic, thanks!

[nate82]

The Verlander trade from last year would be your starting point, but after that I am not sure what you would have to add.

[MrTPlush]

Well $42 mil AVG a year IS NOT happening. So they will have to eat money for us to even fit it in our payroll. Honestly $30mil a year is nuts. By the time they eat enough money to make it possible he is probably a bargain...not expensive. So you are talking one huge package plus a lot of money to the payroll.

 

They would never consider trading him and we are not going to even think about trying to acquire him.

 

In general not specific to us, probably Verlander is a starting point. While getting old his production is nuts. Probably a risky venture for any team.

[Jenkins5]

Nationals trade Max, they automatically lose any hope of bringing back Harper. Clear cut sign they give up on competing. They are still a team right now who like Dodgers can pop off a big hot streak & climb. They are most talented team in that division. Phillies & Braves are up & coming teams & both could easily take steps back in 2nd half.

 

It’d make zero sense to trade one of the top 3 pitchers in the game right now. You don’t even consider it until Harper leaves & if they decide to tear it all down to rebuild

 

If they were to trade, prospects all depend on how much of that contract you are willing to eat. You eat a lot of it, you get discount on prospects. Still will be big haul

[pacopete4]

Max Scherzer would be the one pitcher I would think of moving Hiura for. That dude is the ultimate competitor and can put a team on his back.

[adambr2]

Nationals better be eating a lot of salary if we're sending back Hiura, because that's the only way we can afford it. If as the OP proposed, the Nats aren't taking salary, we can't afford it. Braun is still on the books here through 2020.

 

It's an interesting line of thought here, I just don't think there's any way Scherzer becomes close to available. I think the Nats are still really good odds to win the East, and even if they don't, they won't know that by the deadline.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Are you sure on those Scherzer numbers? He signed 7/210 with $105 million deferred, it’s essentially a 14 year contract.

[MrTPlush]

Are you sure on those Scherzer numbers? He signed 7/210 with $105 million deferred, it’s essentially a 14 year contract.

 

Okay so then it is:

 

$7.143mil next 3 years (While he is playing)

 

$15mil the following 7 years (NOT EVEN PLAYING)

 

 

Yah, not happening. The Nationals would have to eat all the deferred money from the time he pitched for the Nationals. So no team is paying him $42mil a year. It’s more like $30mil a year after the deferred money the Nationals should be responsible for is paid for by the Nationals.

[KeithStone53151]

We should all remember that this would be a bad year. The luxury tax cap is going to keep teams from acquiring the high end contracts. That alone may end all discussion of trading him mid-season.

 

This is also generally tough. The contract is so expensive, you definitely aren't getting any surplus value from him unless he's a top 3 cy young pitcher until it ends, and even then you are barely getting fair value. This type of move may make sense for the Dodgers or Yankees after the season when they can add virtually unlimited payroll, but not mid-season

[reillymcshane]

Are you sure on those Scherzer numbers? He signed 7/210 with $105 million deferred, it’s essentially a 14 year contract.

The numbers are kind of crazy. This is from Cot's contracts:

 

http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

 

signed by Washington as a free agent 1/21/15

- $50M signing bonus - $5M in 2015 and $15M each in 2019, 2020, 2021 payments in equal semiannual installments, April-September

- salaries: 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually

2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028

 

This plays out as follows:

 

2015: $15M total ($5M bonus and $10M salary)

2016-18: $15M total annually - all salary

2019-21: $15M total annually - all bonus $15M bonus money ($35M annual salary is deferred each year - total of $105M)

2022-28: $15M annually in deferred salary (total of $105M)

 

Essentially he gets $15M a year from 2015-2028.

 

The key is that his salary from 2019-21 is $35M PLUS he gets installments from his signing bonus, which is $15M a year. You'd have to figure out who owes what. Is the signing bonus owed by the team that originally signed him? Or is the team that acquires him required to pay that check.

 

In the end, Scherzer gets $50M a year from 2019 to 2021 (although $105M is deferred from 2022-28).

[Boomer5]

We don't have enough to get him and we can't afford his contract.

 

Not a fit.