Yearly strategic proposal

[colbyjack]

Every year I propose that the Brewers should "reach" a little bit for a player, save a little bonus money that could be used elsewhere, and select a player that is a little more proven, or at least what is perceived as a safer pick, while filling an area of need. Last year I suggested Blake DeWitt given his hitting prowess and ability to play 3B, and given the recent conversations involving Taylor Teagarden and Ryan Zimmerman, both may be candidates to fit that role this year. My fave lefty Ricky Romero could also be a candidate, and all three could move relatively quickly given their polish. While they don't have the upside Jack Z. typically looks for with his first-rounders, they seem to be fairly good locks to be productive big-leaguers.

 

Given the high number of supplemental picks this June, our second actual pick (in the third round) won't take place until the 88th overall pick (assuming Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver don't sign with the D-Backs and Angels respectively). Last year we took Josh Wahpepah with the 76th overall selection, and our 4th round pick and beyond will end up beng 12 slots lower than last year given the amount of supplemental picks.

 

Naturally, the talent is going to fall as far, and while the team doesn't have a 2nd round pick this year, that doesn't automatically mean the team will have an extra $725,000 (the bonus Yovani Gallardo received) or so to play with later.

 

If the value for the #5 overall pick still is in the $2.2 million dollar neighborhood, the team could save some bonus money for later by reaching for a player and offering them $1.8-2 million dollars, fill a need, and attempt to sign a high potential player later that has dropped. By using in theory about $200,000-400,000 plus about $700,000 from the lack of a 2nd rounder, the usual $450,000 or so that could be spent on the third rounder could be as much as $1.5 million.

 

Unfortunately, this could be perceived as a similar tactic that was used under the watch of Sal Bando, although he didn't take the money that was "saved" and use it on a player that had fallen elsewhere. I do know that the Brewers have at least thought about this at one point in time, as it was rumored in 2002 that Jack Z. and his staff had focused on Khalil Greene briefly after signing Manny Parra so that two larger signings wouldn't effect the rest of their draft as much as it did.

 

Or, in theory you could roll the 2nd round money into your first-round bonus and throw a $3 million dollar bonus at a player with your first-round pick. Neither Upton nor Gordon would sign for that kind of money even if they did fall, but it could be the difference of being in a position to not only draft but sign someone like Luke Hochevar.

[clancyphile]

Jeff Clement.

 

Catcher, fills the need, advanced bat (with power potential) and defense (he'll keep baserunners honest).

 

Roll in the first round money, and the Crew pries him out of USC.

[bjkrautk]

Just to point it out, last year the Mariners spent nearly $2.3 million in bonus money on their third round selection, ss Matt Tuiasosopo (sp?). Of course, they had forfeit their second (to KC for Ibanez) and first-round (to MN for Guardado) picks.

 

It's an interesting discussion, but I have a hard time believing that Mark A. is going to be sold on the idea of signing a lesser player to spend more down the line. The notion of 'going cheap' on an early pick sounds too Selig-esque, IMO.

 

That said, there are a few wild cards in play in this year's draft, starting with the players who went unsigned from the first round last year. Stephen Drew (via Boras) rejected $3 million from the D-Backs as the 15th pick, but his decision not to return to FSU would normally suggest a further loss of negotiating power. That said, we all know the Drew family has a certain history of holding out. A deal for under slot-money at 5 may be workable (if such a deal could be made before the draft....I'm not sure where tampering rules factor in here) for both sides. (IIRC, J.D. Drew was the fifth pick in the draft when the Cardinals selected him in 1998.)

 

Jered Weaver is even more likely to be available with the Brewers pick. Wade Townsend will be there as well, but I'd rather not get a guy that most scouts project as a reliever. While College Seniors are generally considered more signable, these players carry more risk (as none of them are playing for their old teams, AFAIK), and could sign at a discount.

 

Of course, the main danger in selecting a Boras client in the first round is that any 1-2 rounder who falls to the Brewers' next pick will likely have the same agent. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/devil.gif

 

Of the current year's draft class, Ricky Romero would strike that interesting compromise of being good enough to be a high-mid first rounder, but probably not good enough to warrant the fifth pick. (Then again, I can always find an excuse to advocate signing the best college lefty in the draft. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ) Considering BA ranks Zimmerman 5th in their mid-season collegiate rankings, he might not sign for much of a discount. Regardless, I don't see the Brewers cutting corners on Mark A's first draft pick.

[colbyjack]

A guy like Tuiasosopop is kind of who I was targeting in the 3rd round bjkrautk. Someone like him or maybe a Mark Trumbo, Nick Adenhart, or using our own draftees, a Sean Morgan or Drew Bowman.

 

I pointed out that the savings wouldn't be that big of a difference, possibly only $100,000-200,000, so people may not even notice. And how much is Mark A. going to get involved with the draft? It's not like they would be spending less just for the sake of being cheap, or cutting corners as you put it. They would be spending less to spend more later, while still getting a very good player with their first-round pick. If they pitched the whole notion to Mark A., he may even be all over that. They only have so much money to work with, so trying to maximize the number of high-level players they are able to sign could be particularly advantageous, especially when first-round caliber players have a much greater chance of sticking in the big leagues than draftees from any other round.

 

I can tell you for a fact that neither Stephen Drew nor Jered Weaver is going to sign for anything close to $3 million dollars, much less slot value at #5 (probably around $2.3 million). They would take the current deals on the table with the D-Backs and Angels respectively before doing that.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Drew...A deal for under slot-money at 5 may be workable ...

 

Jered Weaver is even more likely to be available with the Brewers pick. Wade Townsend will be there as well, but I'd rather not get a guy that most scouts project as a reliever.

 

...these players carry more risk (as none of them are playing for their old teams, AFAIK), and could sign at a discount.

 

Um, if these guys were willing to sign at a discount, why would they re-enter the draft? Their apparent lack of leverage is more than compensated for by their agents' willingness to engage in brinkmanship and lengthy holdouts...Weaver and Drew left millions on the table with the expectation of getting more, not less...

[bjkrautk]

The reason that I see the Boras guys as potentially willing to settle is that, after sitting out their senior years, they've lost what leverage they had. Correct me if I'm wrong, but only one of the three is in school right now, and he (Townsend) isn't playing for his college team.

 

Traditionally, college seniors sign for less money than high schoolers or college juniors, as they don't have the option of going back to college. As long as the teams that drafted them in 2004 still have control over their rights, they have built-in leverage, as the team will generally prefer a first-round talent to a sandwich pick. Once the player is returned to the draft, however, the potential payoff from holding out falls off. It's either sign with the second team, or spend another year playing independent league baseball, and watching your status fall off the table. Ask Matt Harrington if that sounds like a good idea.

 

Since J.D. Drew is the poster boy for this sort of holdout, I ran a quick search on his draft history. He went to college instead of signing with the Giants out of high school in 1994. In '97, as a college junior, he was selected with the Phillies....and opted for the St. Paul Saints instead. In '98, he signed as the 5th overall pick by the Cardinals for a $7 million bonus, down from the $11 million he demanded from the Phillies.

 

If J.D. Drew would sign for less money, despite dropping from the 2nd to the 5th pick, why is it so difficult to imagine Stephen Drew settling for $2 million instead of 3, when he'd actually end up moving up the draft board in doing so? Agreeing to this sort of deal beats being selected in the late first / sandwich round (given the risk of selecting a player who didn't play that season).

 

Wherever these three players are selected, odds are they'll sign for less than they were asking for in '04 (assuming they all end up back in the draft, that is). It sure beats the alternative....

[colbyjack]

First of all, Townsend isn't a Boras client. He may end up getting less than what the Orioles were offering last year, and his plan to return to school while giving up his athletic eligibility back-fired on him. If he were advised by Boras he wouldn't have made such a mistake, at least not without knowing the ramifications beforehand. Basically, he turned pro while returning to school hoping to slip through some kind of loop-hole, but MLB has specific rules about drafted players that return to school, regardless if they retain their athletic eligibility.

 

As for Drew & Weaver, as SoCal and I pointed out, why would they even return to the draft, when they already have very generous offers on the table (much more than $3 million) and end up signing for less, regardless of their status as college seniors? It's just not going to happen. Do you think leverage really plays as big of a factor with Scott Boras clients?

 

I guarantee you the only reason J.D. Drew went into the draft after being drafted by the Phillies was because the Cardinals ended up giving him more than what the Phillies were offering. The only reason Stephen Drew or Weaver will re-enter the draft is if another team is offering more than what is currently on the table. They wouldn't take such a risk otherwise, and it's a sign that pre-draft deals, or at least the foundation for such deals, are a lot more prevalent than people think.

 

And without citing specifics, because I'm unable to reveal my sources, I can assure you that is a fact, not speculation.

[bjkrautk]

Do you think leverage really plays as big of a factor with Scott Boras clients?

 

Maybe not with Boras clients, but leverage means everything to Boras himself. Rarely do clients with first round grades get more than one shot at the MLB draft; Boras gets ~ 5 chances per year. There are only two reasons why he can push for greater-than-slot value for his players:

1) MLB teams can't trade draft picks / drafted players

2) Holding out and re-entering the draft is a viable option.

 

Until J.D. Drew refused to sign with the Phillies, option # 2 wasn't viable, as long as the player stays out of school. Once a college junior leaves his program, he was going to sign; the only question was when. Since then, it's become at least a possibility that these players might hold out a full season and re-enter the draft. It's been done.

 

Ask BA (3/9/2005) suggested that Stephen Drew would be signed by the end of the month. Well we're there now, and he still isn't suiting up for the D-backs. Does that mean that another team is offering more if he goes back into the draft? As they get closer to the deadline, the threat of losing the individual player (Drew or Weaver - with whom the Angels have cut off negotiations) becomes more and more real, and the alternatives (sandwich pick) becomes relatively less desirable. The more often a Boras player gets to the cutoff date and returns to the draft, the more credible the threat.

 

Even if those players make less money in the following year's draft, Boras himself more than makes up for those losses from the players who do sign their first time around. It's the repeat player advantage that gives Boras his edge....and if it means losing a million or two for a few kids along the line, no skin off his back.

 

As is, Drew and Weaver fell to the 15th and 19th picks in 2004. Sure, they both had top 5 talent, but the Boras factor dropped them to the bottom half of the first round. Will their draft stock be improved or hurt from sitting out a full season? (Is there a player I can't think of who held out a season and was drafted in a higher slot the following year? First rounders....not DFE's.) They're not going to make more money as redrafts, and while I believe that Boras does a disservice by holding these players out, I'm not the one asking him to negotiate my deal.

 

So, if Drew does fall back into the draft, and the Brewers offer him below-slot money for the fifth pick ($2.2 million, based on the Rogers deal last year), but higher than that of the 15th pick (~1.6 million), it's better than watching the player end up in freefall, and the potential of falling out of the first round altogether. It may depend on what other teams offer up to Boras, but remember that half the league has already passed on the guy for the offering price. Given that no player has sat out two seasons after leaving his college team (IIRC, Harrington was coming out of HS), the threat of sitting out another season is much less credible.

[SoCalBrewfan]

In '98, he signed as the 5th overall pick by the Cardinals for a $7 million bonus, down from the $11 million he demanded from the Phillies.

 

 

I think you're making the wrong comparison. He got less than he asked for, but you know he got more than the Phillies offered. They were talking about Kris Benson money...Benson got $2M as the #1 overall choice in '96. Matt Anderson, #1 in '97, went down to the wire and got $2.5M...and the Phils were having nothing to do with the talk of eight figures. OTOH, Boras was trying to bust the draft, and had done so the previous year with the infamous 'loophole' free agents.

 

When Drew returned to the '97 draft, he did so knowing full well that the cards were sitting at #5, with the Phils (who could not redraft without permission), two small-market teams (Oakland and KC), and the Cubs ahead of them. Boras had done a successful deal with the Cards the previous year for Ankiel ($2.5M, a record for a 2nd round pick at the time). As it turned out, Drew signed quickly...there was an agreement in place sure as shooting. On the other hand, Oakland and KC had tough negotiations, with Mulder demanding (but ultimately not getting) a major league deal, and KC's choice Jeff Austin holding out over 6 months.

 

Similarly, you have to believe that Weaver would sign now or even shortly before the draft if he (or Boras) thought he would not get more than the $4M or whatever that the Angels had in their final offer. He won't get Prior money, which is what he initally asked for, but the odds are good that he'll get more than what's on the table now....or that there will be a sudden breakthrough in negotiations.

[xisxisxis]

My suggestion for this years strategic proposal is to NOT pick a relative of a major league player.

[colbyjack]

Bjkrauktk, your reasoning is solid, but I don't think you're truly keeping in mind who you're talking about. Do you really think a Boras client is going to sign for somewhere in between $2.2 and $1.6 million this year, when they have a lot more on the table right now? Boras is a smart guy, and you rarely, if ever, see him getting burned. The decision to re-enter the draft won't be made unless he's 100% sure he can get a better deal.

 

When Drew returned to the '97 draft, he did so knowing full well that the cards were sitting at #5, with the Phils (who could not redraft without permission), two small-market teams (Oakland and KC), and the Cubs ahead of them. Boras had done a successful deal with the Cards the previous year for Ankiel ($2.5M, a record for a 2nd round pick at the time). As it turned out, Drew signed quickly...there was an agreement in place sure as shooting.

 

Well stated SoCal. J.D. Drew did sign really quickly, so it's no surprise that there already was a deal on the table. Who knows how long that deal had been worked on. Sure, there are some tampering issues, but who is to know if everyone keeps their mouth shut?

 

These players don't just magically "fall" in the draft. They fall for a reason, and Boras clients don't just sign for slot value, or a fair amount, because they fear what they may make the next year.

 

Weaver may not end up making Prior money, and Drew may not make Weeks or Teixeira money, but they're not going to settle either just because they seemingly have little to no leverage left.

[UWRyan428]

Quote:

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My suggestion for this years strategic proposal is to NOT pick a relative of a major league player.

---

So, if by some small miracle, Justin Upton were to fall to us (contract demands/injury), you're still not a fan, xisxisxis? I just like to play devil's advocate.

[UWRyan428]

And one other question, how would Stephen Drew project to 3rd base? He has a fairly high offensive ceiling, albeit, not quite the desired power one would expect (or so I had heard). Just curious if he could be the second best MAJOR LEAGUE-READY, 3B prospect in this draft.

[colbyjack]

David of course was referring to Tony Gwynn Jr., but I think he would even agree that it's good to have Prince Fielder in our system. Justin Upton and John Mayberry Jr. are the most notable relatives of current/former MLB players.

 

Drew could play 3B just fine, but I'd rather keep him at SS for a while or move him to 2B. While he doesn't have true corner IF power, he has the potential to hit 10-15 dingers relatively soon, and he could be a 20-25 HR guy within a few years, plus he should hit for a high average and he knows how to draw his fair share of walks. He might even be closer to MLB ready than Gordon, but Gordon IMO is the better player just because he's going to be one heck of a true slugger.

 

But then again, the Boras factor plays in, and he still could be signed by the Diamondbacks.

[dadofandrew]

The funny thing is, if Gwynn makes it as a reserve OF with speed and defense, as many of us think he will, he will have a career in the top 10-20% of 2nd rounders.

 

I'd take the best player in every round I thought I could sign...while taking a risk or five in later rounds, knowing I had about an extra million to spend. With our top players in the higher levels of the system, I might look to take 4-5 players and hope to sign a 2-3 of them, not stars, but guys with 5th-10th round talent that have stated they want to go to college. Taken in the 35th round, pursue them hard, talk about the system with them, etc.

 

Or, just go after a Latino player with that $750K.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif