Corey Ray

[cesser000]

Ray went 5 for 9 the last 2 games and his average is now up to .265 - just 18 days ago he had bottomed out to a season-low .240

 

Unfortunately the strikeouts continue to pile up - the only 4 outs he made in those 2 games were via K's.

[splitterpfj]

I exchanged PMs with Jonathan Mayo this morning, it's this simple - the K rate kept him off the Top 100 list - otherwise, scouts love this young man.

 

His future will come down to one thing, it seems ....

[Boomer5]

If I'm the Brewers he is THE trade chip I'm selling high on.

 

If I learned anything following the minors the past 4 years (22 now) it's to not scout the stat line. Numerous scouts have rated his hit tool as low as 30-35 maybe that progresses to a 40-45 FV if he continues shortening up his swing, but I don't see him making enough consistent contact to tap into his above average power. His K rate is another reason for concern. Right now I think his ceiling is about a Keon Broxton 4th OF role with a little worse defense. A guy that can also come in a game late and swipe bags with ease. That can change, but that has value! I just think his value is gonna be highest now as he's approaching a 25-40 season in AA.

 

That’s the issue with Ray. He hit tool currently is 30 which means that is that. He should be a sell high trade chip.

[igor67]

He's made too much improvement in the K rate to stick with a 30 rating. His floor is Keon. If there was an amazing premium talent available for a long time maybe I'd deal him but Ray is the kind of prospect you need to keep around and hope develops to keep extending that competitive window. Otherwise you are stuck cycling through the short 3 or maybe 4 years when you have enough young guys in their prime and cheap enough.

[And That]

That’s the issue with Ray. He hit tool currently is 30 which means that is that. He should be a sell high trade chip.

Both MLB Pipeline and FanGraphs have the FV of his hit tool at 45. I’ve seen between 40-50 in general. The statement “30 which means that is that” is not accurate.

 

And actually if you think his hit tool is currently 30 but could be 45, that’s the opposite of selling high. The lengths people seem to want to go to discredit Corey is... fascinating.

[djd1228]

I wonder with the Maverick trade if he takes his spot in Colorado.

[Jenkins5]

I wonder with the Maverick trade if he takes his spot in Colorado.

 

You’d have to think so. I feel after the deadline there will be an August shake up with some players moving up.

 

His bat is just electric. He has made strides with contact this year & hopefully he continues to make adjustments. MLB players can still be very productive with a 26-27% K mark, def when BB rate is kept over 10%. He just needs to continue to make strides with contact. I’m fine with him being a Mike Cameron .240-.250 hitter as long as he keeps walking at a 10% or higher clip & is electric on the bases & with pounding out XBHs. He has that Rickie Weeks explosive bat... just have to pray it isn’t as hot or cold as Weeks. One month .400 hitter & best player on field to next month .150 looks lost & wondering how he is MLB player. Weeks was drastically streaky (like Broxton as well) Ray has to be more consistent than them.

[JosephC]

I thought Ray had a pretty good chance to be a Starling Marte type player when he was drafted, but now it looks like his hit tool will be a bit less but the power will be a bit more. Is it unreasonable to think his upside might now be comparable to Curtis Granderson? That's kind of what he looks like to me.

[nate82]

I think Jackie Bradley Jr. is still a fair comp for Ray offensively.

 

Ray at 23 in AA

.264 .352 .521 .873

 

Bradely at 22 in AA

.271 .373 .437 .809

 

Bradley did that in less games in AA than Ray has but I believe offensively they are rather identical with Ray having the edge power wise.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ray's K rate needs work, but he's exploded from a slugging standpoint compared to last season - he's turning into a modified 3TO type of hitter but with more speed than your typical slugger would have. He's essentially either striking out or destroying baseballs right now, and I maintain that it would take a huge return via trade for Stearns to include his 1st draft pick in a deal sending Ray out of the organization - particularly when his development as a hitter appears to be catching up with his substantial physical gifts.

[MrTPlush]

One of the biggest concerns with Ray was his power translating. Now that his power isn’t in question anymore he really should get more credit than he does. Could his K-rate use work? Sure, but it isn’t a dealbreaker and I could say that about many prospects below AAA.

[OnaBadger58]

I thought Ray had a pretty good chance to be a Starling Marte type player when he was drafted, but now it looks like his hit tool will be a bit less but the power will be a bit more. Is it unreasonable to think his upside might now be comparable to Curtis Granderson? That's kind of what he looks like to me.

 

That was the first comp. that came to my mind in Curtis Granderson. Seems to fit that mold pretty well right now.

[OldHeidelberg]

I don't think many believe Ray is going to develop into a .300 major league hitter, if they did he would be a top 10 prospect. But looking at his AA numbers and skill set it's tough to see why he wouldn't be top 100 right now but to be fair I have no idea about all the guys ranked ahead of him as I only follow the Brewers prospects. Sure the K rate is concerning but in this days game it is hardly a huge red flag, I am sure they are working on his swing but like a lot of players his power is an OK trade off with the K's. I agree with whoever said Broxton is his floor, not his ceiling.

[splitterpfj]

Mr Ray hit his 11th home run of the month tonight.

[clancyphile]

I thought Ray had a pretty good chance to be a Starling Marte type player when he was drafted, but now it looks like his hit tool will be a bit less but the power will be a bit more. Is it unreasonable to think his upside might now be comparable to Curtis Granderson? That's kind of what he looks like to me.

 

That was the first comp. that came to my mind in Curtis Granderson. Seems to fit that mold pretty well right now.

 

My thinking?

 

Russel Branyan - with speed.

 

3TO in terms of HR, K, BB, but he steals 30+ bases.

[jjfanec]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

[NYChez]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

 

Every prospect above spot 62 has a lower K rate than Ray. Once you get to 62-100, there are several players with similar or worse K rates.

 

One interesting comparison Monte Harrison. Ray's K rate and every other stat are significantly better than Harrison's, but Harrison is the 80th ranked prospect while Ray is unranked. Harrison is one year younger than Ray, and they both have been in AA all season.

[adambr2]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

 

Every prospect above spot 62 has a lower K rate than Ray. Once you get to 62-100, there are several players with similar or worse K rates.

 

One interesting comparison Monte Harrison. Ray's K rate and every other stat are significantly better than Harrison's, but Harrison is the 80th ranked prospect while Ray is unranked. Harrison is one year younger than Ray, and they both have been in AA all season.

 

Yeah, Harrison being 80th makes the whole "We love Ray, he just strikes out too much to make top 100" argument look pretty silly.

 

Harrison: 37.2% K rate, .233/.315/.382/.697, 13 HR, 22 SB

Ray: 27.9% K rate, .263/.350/.523/.873, 22 HR, 32 SB

 

Same level, same league, nearly same age with Harrison being 11 months younger. Explain to me how Harrison is the better prospect than Ray.

[NYChez]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

 

Every prospect above spot 62 has a lower K rate than Ray. Once you get to 62-100, there are several players with similar or worse K rates.

 

One interesting comparison Monte Harrison. Ray's K rate and every other stat are significantly better than Harrison's, but Harrison is the 80th ranked prospect while Ray is unranked. Harrison is one year younger than Ray, and they both have been in AA all season.

 

Yeah, Harrison being 80th makes the whole "We love Ray, he just strikes out too much to make top 100" argument look pretty silly.

 

Harrison: 37.2% K rate, .233/.315/.382/.697, 13 HR, 22 SB

Ray: 27.9% K rate, .263/.350/.523/.873, 22 HR, 32 SB

 

Same level, same league, nearly same age with Harrison being 11 months younger. Explain to me how Harrison is the better prospect than Ray.

Only thing I can think of is that Harrison is seen as been raw and Ray as refined, and therefore Harrison has more room for improvement.

[JosephC]

I have to admit, I'm one of those who only thinks K rate matters if a player makes too many outs. If a player maintains a good enough OBP, I really don't care how he makes the outs. If Ray can maintain a .340+ OBP, I really could care less about the K rate.

[MrTPlush]

A decent comparison would be Carlos Gomez in 2017. His K-rate was almost 30% last year, but still managed an acceptable average with a good OBP%. Corey Ray would also provide better speed and power than a 2017 Gomez did, leading to notably better stats.

 

So yah, a higher K-rate isn’t disasterous to a player like Ray. He can be an impact player at the MLB level.

[jjfanec]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

 

Every prospect above spot 62 has a lower K rate than Ray. Once you get to 62-100, there are several players with similar or worse K rates.

 

One interesting comparison Monte Harrison. Ray's K rate and every other stat are significantly better than Harrison's, but Harrison is the 80th ranked prospect while Ray is unranked. Harrison is one year younger than Ray, and they both have been in AA all season.

 

That is what I figured. It is hard for me to believe there are 100 better prospects than Ray. So much prospect rankings seem like they didn't view a guy highly at the start of the year so they are trying to justify why the guy still isn't worth a ranking.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Like most things, if they tried 50 times to put together a top 100 prospect list they would get 50 different lists. If they re-did the list tomorrow Ray could easily be in the top 100. People were down on Ray at the beginning of the year and that probably played into that.

[jjfanec]

How much worse is Ray's K rate than other top prospects in the game?

 

Every prospect above spot 62 has a lower K rate than Ray. Once you get to 62-100, there are several players with similar or worse K rates.

 

One interesting comparison Monte Harrison. Ray's K rate and every other stat are significantly better than Harrison's, but Harrison is the 80th ranked prospect while Ray is unranked. Harrison is one year younger than Ray, and they both have been in AA all season.

 

Yeah, Harrison being 80th makes the whole "We love Ray, he just strikes out too much to make top 100" argument look pretty silly.

 

Harrison: 37.2% K rate, .233/.315/.382/.697, 13 HR, 22 SB

Ray: 27.9% K rate, .263/.350/.523/.873, 22 HR, 32 SB

 

Same level, same league, nearly same age with Harrison being 11 months younger. Explain to me how Harrison is the better prospect than Ray.

 

Yeah Harrison would need to drop his k rate 7 to get to Ray. If Ray drops his k rate 7 percent he might be a top 30 prospect

[Lathund]

What's promising about the K rate is that Ray moved up a level, and the K% went down 3%. An ability to adapt, even when challenged, is promising.