Syndergaard and Merrifield trades connected.

[KeithStone53151]

I am just going to have to kind lay disagree.

 

I will say averaging out Merrifields WAR the last two seasons is not painting an accurate picture. That is a half year plus a a full year compared to Dee Gordon’s three full years and a half year.

 

Using BR.net and making the half years full years more accurately you get something closer to this:

 

Dee Gordon 2014-2017 = 3.2 WAR

 

Whit Merrifield 2017-2018 = 4.1 WAR

 

 

Dee Gordon also had a PED suspension that probably knocked his trade value a little bit and the money is a big deal. The surplus value Merrifield will hold the next 2.5 years is really really high. Not being an All Star player makes his trade value dependent on the market. Just looking at the cost and production no doubt he is worth giving up a Top 100 prospect. What are Peralta/Burnes these days generally speaking, #80ish? Woodruff is maybe a fringe guy?

 

If a team can land him not using a Top 100 prospect (or really close to it) that team is getting quite a value addition and the numbers would say that. You will get your moneys worth before a possible decline that may not happen for years.

 

I’d like to see us make a deal involving the Phillips/Woodruffs of the world, sweet deal for us. I just don’t see that being enough.

 

Clearly you like Merrifield more than me, and that's fine. For my numbers, I used full seasons just to simplify and baseball reference.

 

I view Merrifield as a guy that WAR really likes, but isn't nearly as valuable as WAR makes them look. Kinda like when Gomez was worth something like 8 WAR in 2013 with his low 800s OPS and probably 30 stolen bases or something. That's very valuable...but 8 WAR? That's fringe Mike Trout territory, all sorts of no. Point being, WAR seems to give some guys more credit than it should and I think Merrifield is one of those.

[MrTPlush]

Maybe tone it down a bit? Thanks.

 

I just caught up reading the various forums here and kid you not, I saw 4 instances where the same poster was either belittling someone or being asked by another to chill or being warned by a mod. What the heck does it take? It's the same guy over and over again. I apologize in advance for adding another unwanted post to this topic, but for heaven's sake please clean this up.

 

It's been this way since he started posting.

 

Actually, no. Occasionally, sure...but don’t starting inferring I do it all the time. I can think of a lot more posters who are 1000x worse and constantly go after other posters.

 

So I’m sorry for my apparent attitude for a few posts. Now we can stop talking about it and Brewer Fever can stop policing my posts. If you have a problem there is a private message feature that you can use to message the mods know. It’s uneccessary to continue to post about your displeasures in the actual threads.

[Humans Need Water]

I think Phillips has probably lost a pretty good amount of value. He's reverted back to his 2016 numbers which is an especially bad thing for Colorado Springs.

 

He has value still, no doubt, but I don't see anyone valuing him as a borderline top 100 anymore. I would agree that Woodruff is pretty frequently undervalued.

 

As you think Whit is being strongly overvalued I think you're strongly undervaluing him. Goodness, he was a 3.8 WAR player in 2017, is improving on that again in 2018, and is far cheaper and better than Gordon. There isn't much not to like besides age and lack of infield versatility.

 

Look how we valued Villar post 2016, and imagine he had another great 1st half in 2017 instead of falling flat on his face. Would you have traded him for a Dubon type then? I think not.

 

Speaking of Dubon, if we think he can be 285/335/720 with good defense at SS (and I'm not saying he can't,) if we think Arcia still has strong value, we should be shopping the hell out of Orlando.

In 2017 Whit was 3.8 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR while Gordon was 3.1 bWAR and 3.4 fWAR. And, as I mentioned, Gordon has a better track record (2x AS, SS, GG). This season Whit is no doubt the better player. You don't think we should be having comparables at the time trades occur (post 2017 Gordon)? That's the only way to do. What they do post trade is irrelevant - when people compare the Sale trade to a potential deGrom trade are they citing what Sale did pre-trade or post-trade???

 

Villar's 2016 across the board was better than Whit's 2017 and he did it at SS while being 3yrs younger. WAR has Villar the same for them those years yet on paper - across the board - Villar was better and did it from SS. It's not even a legitimate comparable.

 

For all we know Stearns has explored Arcia in trades or Dubon for that matter. I was the one who said Arcia should be in a package because he has value. But if Arcia gets back to what he did last year he's absolutely more valuable than Dubon (if Dubon hypothetically reaches those numbers). And If Dubon reaches those numbers will it happen in 2019 or 2021? I just said I think he's capable of it. I didn't say he was doing it from day 1. And it I recall correctly, Dubon was somewhere around a Top 120, which helps. He was going to be our starting SS the day after he was injured...maybe he would have done well, maybe he would have struggled. But he has a high floor because he does everything well he just doesn't do anything super well.

[Humans Need Water]

Did you really just compare Whit Merrifield to Mauricio Dubon and Dee Gordon.

 

Dee Gordon is a pretty questionable example. Not only was he incredibly expensive when traded, but his OPS only got past .750 once in his entire career...three years before the trade. His production and price aren’t comparable at all...so why compare the return.

 

Mauricio Dubon has 100 good ABs this year and suddenly he gets penciled in as a starter despite a pretty horrid 2017 campaign. I’m not really trying to discount Dubon as a prospect, I like him, but saying his value is as comparable as 4 years of Whit Merrifield is quite a statement.

 

At this point I’m just going to chalk it up as you really hate Merrifield for some reason. We all have those players I guess.

Not comparable? I literally laid out exactly how they're comparable and what the differences are. They're the same age. Had the same number of years of control (4 Gordon, 4.33 Whit). Play the same position. Whit has more gap/HR power whereas Gordon stole twice as many bases, was a 2x AS also winning a SS and GG (I left out batting title). I gave the system comparables to the Gordon trade and said adjust accordingly due to the contract and Gordon being the more accomplished player at the time of the trade. The 3yrs prior to the trade Gordon slashed 309/340/724 while Whit over his brief career thus far has slashed 287/333/763 stealing half as many bases playing worse defense. His value over the Gordon trade is his cheap control.

 

But according to you, all that gets swept under the rug because Gordon was more expensive and had an OPS above 750 once in his career. (because OPS is the final barometer for a Gordon type player who's actually built to get on base and disrupt vs hit gaps/HR).

 

Who's your comparable and why?

 

"Dubon has the potential to post 285/335/720 while stealing 30+ bases (from the SS position, not 2b) so why would we give up a package of extreme value for Whit?" - Me (above). I believe he can post those numbers at some point within the first 3yrs of his career and if he does that it means he's done so with 3-4yrs of cheap control still. Hence my question of why would we trade one of Peralta/Burnes *or* Woodruff/Phillips + others for Whit. I also mentioned *why* Dubon leading a package there makes sense (ie Yelich trade) as Merrifield is a known whereas Dubon might take 1-2yrs to get there.

 

Also, you're going to chalk it up to me really hating Merrifield for some reason when I specifically stated "there's a lot to like about Whit"? You're hearing what you want to hear because you're enamored with him based on WAR and that's fine, because like I said, he's a fine player with a lot to like. But find us a comparable trade that makes sense for a package that's better than Woodruff/Phillips *or* leading with one of Peralta/Burnes.

 

Finally, regarding that other poster calling you out. I don't get that - I saw nothing wrong with what or how you posted your opinion. There was nothing escalated in any way

[homer]

 

It's been this way since he started posting.

 

It’s uneccessary to continue to post about your displeasures in the actual threads.

 

 

Yet you found it necessary to post your displeasure in the thread.

 

To everyone, please flag offending posts when you see them. Speaking for myself I don't read every single thread from start to finish. If a post is flagged, then any mod that's logged in sees that there is an issue. Otherwise, things have the potential to escalate. Just an FYI, we are looking into giving a few folks a "time out" from posting for a little while. Hopefully that settles things down.

[Boomer5]

It is really unlikely that Dubon will be a centerpiece of any trade for a 3+ WAR player.

[adambr2]

Perspective of Merrifield's value seems to be all over the place. I suspect it has some something to do with him being a late blooming player. I think we'd have similar difficulty valuing Shaw (and I'm not comparing Merrifield to Shaw in any other way but that.)

[Boomer5]

The guy already has 2.1 WAR and won’t be a FA until 2023.

 

No we won’t be getting him for cheap.

[adambr2]

I think Phillips has probably lost a pretty good amount of value. He's reverted back to his 2016 numbers which is an especially bad thing for Colorado Springs.

 

He has value still, no doubt, but I don't see anyone valuing him as a borderline top 100 anymore. I would agree that Woodruff is pretty frequently undervalued.

 

As you think Whit is being strongly overvalued I think you're strongly undervaluing him. Goodness, he was a 3.8 WAR player in 2017, is improving on that again in 2018, and is far cheaper and better than Gordon. There isn't much not to like besides age and lack of infield versatility.

 

Look how we valued Villar post 2016, and imagine he had another great 1st half in 2017 instead of falling flat on his face. Would you have traded him for a Dubon type then? I think not.

 

Speaking of Dubon, if we think he can be 285/335/720 with good defense at SS (and I'm not saying he can't,) if we think Arcia still has strong value, we should be shopping the hell out of Orlando.

 

Villar's 2016 across the board was better than Whit's 2017 and he did it at SS while being 3yrs younger. WAR has Villar the same for them those years yet on paper - across the board - Villar was better and did it from SS. It's not even a legitimate comparable.

 

Villar 2016 and Merrifield's 2017 were very comparable. FWAR was the same, bWAR had Merrifield as easily the more valuable player. Basically identical power and slugging. Both can take a base, Villar took more and got caught more. Villar's biggest offensive advantage over Merrifield was OBP -- .369 to .324, which isn't a small number, but this advantage was totally negated by Villar's defensive deficiencies. I don't understand how you can twice cite Villar doing it from SS as a good thing when his defense at SS was atrocious. Yes, a bat at SS is more valuable than a bat at 2nd, but not when that bat at SS is a defensive hack. If he was in any way serviceable at SS, he'd probably be playing there every day right now.

[Humans Need Water]

I think Phillips has probably lost a pretty good amount of value. He's reverted back to his 2016 numbers which is an especially bad thing for Colorado Springs.

 

He has value still, no doubt, but I don't see anyone valuing him as a borderline top 100 anymore. I would agree that Woodruff is pretty frequently undervalued.

 

As you think Whit is being strongly overvalued I think you're strongly undervaluing him. Goodness, he was a 3.8 WAR player in 2017, is improving on that again in 2018, and is far cheaper and better than Gordon. There isn't much not to like besides age and lack of infield versatility.

 

Look how we valued Villar post 2016, and imagine he had another great 1st half in 2017 instead of falling flat on his face. Would you have traded him for a Dubon type then? I think not.

 

Speaking of Dubon, if we think he can be 285/335/720 with good defense at SS (and I'm not saying he can't,) if we think Arcia still has strong value, we should be shopping the hell out of Orlando.

 

Villar's 2016 across the board was better than Whit's 2017 and he did it at SS while being 3yrs younger. WAR has Villar the same for them those years yet on paper - across the board - Villar was better and did it from SS. It's not even a legitimate comparable.

 

Villar 2016 and Merrifield's 2017 were very comparable. FWAR was the same, bWAR had Merrifield as easily the more valuable player. Basically identical power and slugging. Both can take a base, Villar took more and got caught more. Villar's biggest offensive advantage over Merrifield was OBP -- .369 to .324, which isn't a small number, but this advantage was totally negated by Villar's defensive deficiencies. I don't understand how you can twice cite Villar doing it from SS as a good thing when his defense at SS was atrocious. Yes, a bat at SS is more valuable than a bat at 2nd, but not when that bat at SS is a defensive hack. If he was in any way serviceable at SS, he'd probably be playing there every day right now.

I have several issues with this. 1) defensive metrics are unreliable 2) WAR is unreliable and no GM uses it in any decision making process because there's a lot of other metrics combined that paint a much better picture

 

The SS position is the most difficult to play on the field and it's the most valuable. His WAR was very similar to Whit because of that negative defensive scoring (was a 5 DRS and -12 UZR so which is correct....Segura is a starting SS still and he's never had above a 2-3 DRS and has had a negative UZR 5yrs). Shift Villar over to 2b that year instead and what would his WAR be given they're both slightly above average defensive 2b or what if Whit was shifted over to SS - how much would his WAR have taken a hit? Villar on pace for 2 WAR this year and his offense isn't in the same stratosphere as 2yrs ago. Hence my point. They're not comparable - adjust the defensive scoring over to 2b, OBP by 45pts, OPS by 42pts, twice as many SB and 3yrs younger. Villar was also a better SS than the metrics say and what fans say (ie unbelievably brutal). The *only* reason he was moved to 2b was because Arcia was up and is a GG caliber defender there, no different than Albies going to 2b because of Dansby. The better defender stays at SS.

[Humans Need Water]

It is really unlikely that Dubon will be a centerpiece of any trade for a 3+ WAR player.

Maybe that's where my thought process differs from others. I don't look at packages and see a centerpiece + others. I look at the value of the entire return as a whole. I also don't create opinions based on WAR and I'd guess neither do GMs.

 

Logan Forsythe for Jose de Leon is the only other trade that comes to mind for a potential comparable but he has outproduced Whit offensively the 2yrs prior to his trade (and showed in career previously he has that potential) and has played *every* position on the field except catcher. So, at the time of that trade, Logan was better offensively, played every position in the field making him extremely valuable on the defensive side and was still owed 2/16M. Now adjust accordingly with Whit's 4/? (cheap) playing 2b/corner OF spots (not SS/CF if needed). There was an article written in LA after the trade on what the Dodgers thought-process was and it said de Leon was traded because the Dodgers knew he was overrated and thought of him as the 4th best pitching prospect in the org (Urias, Alvarez 92 and Buehler unranked) and, most importantly, *not* a TOR prospect (like his ranking indicated) even though he was the 2nd highest rated in org and Top 30 overall by publications. It's why, instead of having him up during a playoff run after producing very good AAA numbers, they brought up Brock Stewart who wasn't even in their org Top 30 heading into the season. He didn't fair too well so they finally brought up de Leon for 4 starts and that didn't go well either. That would be like us calling up Derby instead of Peralta (and Woodruff/Burnes for that matter).

 

I compared the Gordon trade to what we'd be giving up if matching that then talked about how I could see Dubon going there (ie Yelich trade logic). I never gave an actual trade proposal. And since people love WAR - maybe go check out the list of 2b who are on pace for a 3 WAR (Whit on pace for same as last season maybe slightly above) and re-evaluate targeting Whit in general let alone giving up 2 org Top 10s + another Top 15. Villar is on pace for 2 WAR for heaven's sake and he's been nothing but *fine*. Miller's outproducing Whit offensively this year and he could easily be the 2b down the stretch (he's also posted the same OPS+ in 2016 that Whit is posting right now and tied him another year). Miller also plays SS, unlike Whit.