Syndergaard and Merrifield trades connected.

[MrTPlush]

Man I always see how draining the farm made us quickly suck after 2011. That was not the problem at all. Most of the players we traded flamed out into nothing. Lawrie, Escobar, and LaPorta...the three premium guys became nothing. Sure, Cain became pretty good and Brantley eventually became something.

 

The real problem was terrible drafting, it was way past pathetic. Those trades hardly made a dent in our farm system and the results of the people who left were mostly zero. Our farm system turned to trash once we failed to draft well for half a decade straight causing little reinforcements from within. Heck the only reason, until recently, our farm system rebounded was by trading away talent...not actually developing it.

 

If we kept those guys instead of trading them we would have had two sweet hitters and probably...zero postseason appearances.

[wallus]

Man I always see how draining the farm made us quickly suck after 2011. That was not the problem at all. Most of the players we traded flamed out into nothing. Lawrie, Escobar, and LaPorta...the three premium guys became nothing. Sure, Cain became pretty good and Brantley eventually became something.

 

Jake Odorizzi is definitely not someone that should have been left out of this.

[buckybrewer232]

FWIW, in Rosenthal's latest column on The Athletic he noted that the Brewers pursued Merrifield this past offseason, and have "expressed interest" in him again recently.

[OnTheBlack]

Jeepers. My first instinct when I saw the offer for Whit was to really hate it. Are we enamored with WM because of the defensive upgrade and control? That is where the big upgrade comes with him over Villar I think.

 

I'm not saying Villar is as good offensively as Merrifield ... but he is younger than WM. WM's career OBP is only like 12 points higher or something. Villar has a bit more pop. The strikeout ratios are similar, neither one walks much.

 

Merrifield is a better player... but Phillips, Woodruff, and Supak better?

 

 

Yes, a guy who'd start on many teams in Center Field, the pitcher who last year many were touting as a future TOR arm and Supak, yet another guy who has a good arm and may or may not be worth anything, but the exact type of player you need to try to fill your system with in the hopes that you can find enough of those good arms to develop enough home grown pitching to sustain success. That's my problem with the list of players we'd have in 2 years. Very few ever reach their ceiling. So give me all the Corbin Burnes(even going back to 2016), Supak, Woodruff, Brown, Peralta types because most of them won't pan out. So I'd rather pin my hopes on 12 guys with upside than 2 or 3(obviously).

 

Now if you're talking about Degrom or Thor, that's different, but not Merrifield.

[cesser000]

What we don’t have though is that shutdown pitcher who can consistently stop losing streaks and can shoulder the load in the playoffs.

The Brewers to this point have been shutout 10 times on offense. They've scored just 1 run eight times, and just 2 runs thirteen times. And despite all that, they are STILL in 1st place, with the second-best record in the NL, and 6th-best in baseball. Pitching ain't the problem.

 

Even if you were to plug Sandy Koufax in his prime into the rotation, you can't win if you can't score. The offense is far and away what needs improvement.

[OnTheBlack]

The issue is (and was, in the 2008-2014 run) our continued inability to develop quality pitching of our own. Yes, Peralta and/or Burnes could break that mold. But if they don't, the Brewers will have to continue to acquire quality arms via trade or free agency. Free agency leads to overpaying for mediocrity, and trading for quality means you have to give up prospects to get it.

 

Until the team can put multiple self-developed arms into the majors and have THEM have sustained success, the team will always have to weigh the odds of shortening a window by trading prospects to fill holes vs. the possibility that you miss out on playoff success because you have those holes that you can't fill internally.

 

It's been a problem for 20 years, and shows few signs of getting better.

 

 

I actually think it does show signs of getting better. We have talented arms across every level and have had a rookie make some spectacular starts for us this year(the2nd best pitching prospect on that Colorado Springs team BTW).

 

None of this is to mention the relievers that have come from our system that now to give us one of the best bullpen's in baseball.

[CanOfCorn]

Someone mentioned in one of the threads that perhaps the Brewers were looking to get Merrifield to make it more comfortable to trade Hiura. This makes a lot of sense to me and here's my proposals.

 

MIL gets Merrifield

KC gets Woodruff Villar Phillips and Supak

 

MIL get Syndergaard

NYM get Hiura Burnes Santana and Ray

 

I think very fair for all teams involved.

 

MIL is left with this for players available to help in 2020

 

C Pina

Nottingham

Bandy

 

1b Thames

Aguilar

Gatewood

 

2b. Merrifield

Perez

Dubon

 

3b. Shaw

Perez

 

SS Arcia

Perez

Dubon

 

OF Cain

Yelich

Braun

Broxton

Thames

Stokes

Grisham

Merrifield

 

SP. Syndergaard

Nelson

Anderson

Guerra

Peralta

Surer

Davies

Ortiz

Z Brown

Wilkerson

Derby

 

RP. Knebel

Hader

Jeffress

Williams

Barnes

Lopez

Houser

N Ramirez

QTC

Griep

any of the above mentioned starters should the need arise.

 

We would still be pretty set both offensively, defensively and starting and relief pitching

 

Thoughts??

 

 

 

 

This is actually pretty close to what I think might happen. I think KC might want a lower-level prospect with a higher ceiling/lower floor but this is a good starting point. I also disagree with many people thinking that offer is too low for Thor. I think that's pretty spot-on! I was texting a friend of mine earlier today and told him we should start the offer with Burnes, Hiura, Ray and Woodruff. If they say no, throw in Carmona or Rodriguez to seal the deal. That is likely three top 150 MLB prospects along with a solid, mid-rotation, MLB-ready starter in Woodruff. The Mets are more likely to want some talent that is ML-ready. I think that offer is plenty good enough to get Thor from the Mets. No other team can match that.

 

Merrifield I would think an offer including Phillps and Dubon would be about what they're looking for. If they want Santana, I say give them Santana over Phillips then and maybe you can keep Dubon and throw in a couple low-level guys like Carmona or Rodriguez as mentioned above. Either way, I think these are both moves that keep the eye on the prize. Stearns basically created a 5-year window with the moves he made this offseason. This would keep that window very much in tact. You would have Merrifield thru 2022 and Thor thru 2021 and we'd have plenty of excess in MLB SPs to trade in the offseason to refill some of the void in our prospect pool. Davies, Suter, and Woodrufff (if not already traded) would immediately become expendable. At least two of them should be traded. You'd still have plenty of MLB-ready SPs on the roster.

 

Our rotation depth would look like:

Syndergaard (thru 2021)

Nelson (thru 2020)

Anderson (thru 2020)

Guerra (thru 2022..but he's already 30)

Peralta (thru TBD but at least thru 2023)

Chacin thru 2019, then Ortiz should be ready in 2020

 

 

I don't see how we'd be giving up too much and I don't see how anyone wouldn't consider us legitimate World Series contenders for the next 4 years. If the prize is a World Series and clearly our window is 5 years with the Yelich/Cain deals, this makes the most sense. Also keep in mind that we wouldn't be paying Syndergaard $20 million until probably the last year of arbitration for him. That's an absolute steal and it allows us to maintain some financial flexibility. Think of how bad off we'd be if we made a deal for Cobb or Darvish. Syndergaard isn't Cobb or Darvish. This kid is an absolute beast and he's only 25 years old! We'd have plenty of $$ left to spend on Free Agents over the next few years to fill in a void that the now missing prospects would've filled.

 

Do it, Stearns!!

[adambr2]

If the Mets say no to Hiura, Burnes, Ray and Woodruff, I really don't think Carmona or Rodriguez is going to be the guy that moves the needle and changes their mind.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I like what Miller has shown offensively thus far, and think a quasi platoon of him + Villar at 2nd would be solid. With Saladino nearing a potential return, Miller could still fill in occasionally at SS depending on pitching matchups, too. Where this roster could take a huge leap forward offensively is not by acquiring Merrifield - it's by going after Machado to play SS if they're open to a rental, or it's by bringing in Realmuto if they can come up with a palatable prospect package in return for multiple years of control for a difference-making C.

 

I really like Thor, but I just don't see this season as the year a trade materializes unless some team is willing to blow the Mets away. He has so much team control left but also has the injury ?'s that both drive his value into the stratosphere and hamstring teams from wanting to pony up. If Thor is dealt, there's almost no chance it would wind up as a win-win for both teams - either the Mets get hosed or the team trading for him gets hosed, and it all depends on health. I'm still not sure why the Mets even are seriously considering moving him unless they are expecting an injury blow up and figure his value will only plummet like Harvey's did.

 

I don't want to include Hiura in any trade - there is just too much upside in having a middle of the order bat holding down 2B for the Brewers as early as next season. I think DS is much more likely to see what he can bring in to help the 2018 MLB club using prospects and young MLB players they're going to struggle to keep on next year's 40 man that do have value. He's only had a couple years of drafts, but to this point I don't think DS has traded anyone prominent he drafted during this organizational rebuild - and I expect that to continue.

[coolhandluke121]

Don't buy high on Merrifield. Don't get into a bidding war over Syndergaard. I'm fine with trading some top prospects but I don't see either of those guys being the right target unless I'm completely wrong about how much the Mets will get for Syndergaard.

[KeithStone53151]

I like what Miller has shown offensively thus far, and think a quasi platoon of him + Villar at 2nd would be solid. With Saladino nearing a potential return, Miller could still fill in occasionally at SS depending on pitching matchups, too. Where this roster could take a huge leap forward offensively is not by acquiring Merrifield - it's by going after Machado to play SS if they're open to a rental, or it's by bringing in Realmuto if they can come up with a palatable prospect package in return for multiple years of control for a difference-making C.

 

I really like Thor, but I just don't see this season as the year a trade materializes unless some team is willing to blow the Mets away. He has so much team control left but also has the injury ?'s that both drive his value into the stratosphere and hamstring teams from wanting to pony up. If Thor is dealt, there's almost no chance it would wind up as a win-win for both teams - either the Mets get hosed or the team trading for him gets hosed, and it all depends on health. I'm still not sure why the Mets even are seriously considering moving him unless they are expecting an injury blow up and figure his value will only plummet like Harvey's did.

 

I don't want to include Hiura in any trade - there is just too much upside in having a middle of the order bat holding down 2B for the Brewers as early as next season. I think DS is much more likely to see what he can bring in to help the 2018 MLB club using prospects and young MLB players they're going to struggle to keep on next year's 40 man that do have value. He's only had a couple years of drafts, but to this point I don't think DS has traded anyone prominent he drafted during this organizational rebuild - and I expect that to continue.

 

I like this, pretty much agree across the board. Especially the notes about Syndergaard that I bolded. I know we have a 40 man crunch coming this offseason, so utilizing some of those prospects to make trades would seem to make a ton of sense.

[KeithStone53151]

That would be utter highway robbery for Merrifield. Just looking at his stats he has a good bat and above average defense. That’s good for ~4 WAR a year.

 

And we are going to get that for spare parts? He has 4.5 years of control! Yah, good luck with that. Merrifield will require one of Burnes/Peralta to lead a deal and it won’t be cheap.

 

If we can get him without Peralta, Burnes, or Hiura why isn’t it being done yet?

 

Light hitting 2b that can play outfield and is an above average defender and can steal bases. I highly highly doubt this guy hits 19 HR ever again, I think it's unlikely he ever breaks 15 again. I don't see this guy as enough of an upgrade over what we have to give up Peralta or Burnes for him. He's definitely one of those guys that WAR really likes, but he really isn't as valuable as WAR seems to think he is...not even close.

[Swizzul]

Thank GOD you are not David Sterns.

 

For the fact that you think we'd have to give all of that up to get Whit Merrifield should basically just cancel out the rest of what you said.

 

Take my advice, we aren't getting either one of them. Keston Hiura wasn't drafted to be traded. He WILL be our 2B for a while to come as long as he can stay healthy.

 

Brewers and Mets won't be making a trade this season/offseason. You can bet the farm on that.

[paul253]

gainst you here, Paul. That 1 WC and 1 division title came after numerous sacrifices made to the top rated farm system you are speaking of. It didn't come as a result of organically building from the farm, we don't know what the result would

 

My point is that we had the number one ranked system and it took trades

for top of rotation pitchers to even sniff the playoffs. Without Sabathka and without Greinke our #1 ranked farm system gets us nothing. People seem like they want to hold onto all of our prospects so that we’ll have a highly ranked system. My point is that ultimately a highly ranked system means squat.

 

? As soon as those players left, the Brewers became a middling team with no real chance to win moving forward

 

Of all the guys we traded only Brantley Cain and Odorizzi had any real success. Jeffress eventually improved after bouncing around KC and Toronto but I highly doubt we’d have been all that much better had hung onto them. The only real argument you can make is that we’d have gotten higher draft picks because the major league team wouldn’t have been as good.

I think our middling major league team can be blamed as much on Mark and Doug refusing to deal players that needed to be dealt and instead making desperate moves to try to stay relevant.

 

 

The offense is far and away what needs improvement

 

Absolutely the offense has to get better. But why does it have to be an either or? We can’t improve the offense if we trade for Syndergaard? Any moves we make for the offense will likely be more low key moves. We have established starters at almost every position. Any upgrade we have will likely be more of the Walker/Hairston variety than of the Manny Machado variety. I don’t see why we can’t improve both.

[MrTPlush]

Heck we already made a nice upgrade to the offense in Brad Miller. If we were healthy this offense would be pretty nice. Not having Cain, Yelich, and Braun is bad. That’s the real problem right now and that is before we consider the possibility of Shaw struggling due to injury.

 

We have a solid core on offense and could use an upgrade to the infield. I think the Brewers might be looking for the best deal and figure out where everyone will play afterwards. That’s what I get from trying Shaw at 2nd and Aguilar at 3B.

[djd1228]

Heck we already made a nice upgrade to the offense in Brad Miller. If we were healthy this offense would be pretty nice. Not having Cain, Yelich, and Braun is bad. That’s the real problem right now and that is before we consider the possibility of Shaw struggling due to injury.

 

We have a solid core on offense and could use an upgrade to the infield. I think the Brewers might be looking for the best deal and figure out where everyone will play afterwards. That’s what I get from trying Shaw at 2nd and Aguilar at 3B.

 

Well good news is we could have Cain, Yelich and Salad man as early as tomorrow.

[lcbj68c]

If we are trading three players for a second basemen it better be for Altuve. What the hell are we doing here...

 

This.

[Humans Need Water]

That would be utter highway robbery for Merrifield. Just looking at his stats he has a good bat and above average defense. That’s good for ~4 WAR a year.

 

And we are going to get that for spare parts? He has 4.5 years of control! Yah, good luck with that. Merrifield will require one of Burnes/Peralta to lead a deal and it won’t be cheap.

 

If we can get him without Peralta, Burnes, or Hiura why isn’t it being done yet?

I'd venture a guess in saying that Sterans isn't giving up Woodruff/Phillips leading a package for Merrifield because he believes that's a massive overpay....because it is.

 

If Whit is traded this month he and Dee Gordon would have been the same age at the time of their trades - Dee had 4/52 remaining and was a relatively recent 2x AS, SS, GG at 2b and he brought back *zero* Top 100 players let alone a Top 60 MLB ready rotation arm in Burnes or Peralta or a package that starts with *two* Top 100 MLB ready prospects in Woodruff/Phillips. The top piece in that Gordon trade was a really good young pitcher that was in A+ the majority of that year. The 2nd/3rd pieces of that trade are dead ringers for Carmona and a Ponce type. The equivalent to the Gordon trade is Zack Brown, Carmona, Ponce so adjust accordingly based on that given no two players are the same (ie Gordon is more accomplished whereas Whit has an extra 2 months control and significantly cheaper).

 

In saying that, I see Stearns giving up 6yrs of Dubon for 4yrs of Merrifield (known commodity). Merrifield starts at 2b until Hiura is up then becomes the backup 2b/corner OF....4yrs+ of cheap control for that type of player is excellent value, gives us an upgrade at 2b immediately and boosts the heck out of our bench once Hiura takes over. Stearns wants a deep team due to late game matchups, injuries, etc. We still have Miller another year too so Miller/Merrifield on bench spelling Arcia/Hiura would be nasty good for 2019 while also being our starting middle IF down the stretch this year. Dubon's injured but it's not career threatening by any means and he's MLB ready so KC could have their middle IF set for the next 6yrs between Lopez/Dubon. If there's no package and it's one for one it'll be a better prospect on our end probably maxing out at Phillips but it most certainly won't be Peralta or Burnes.

 

Also, Woodruff and Phillips aren't spare parts. They're MLB ready Top 100 (pre-2018) starting talents with 5-6yrs control. Woodruff is pitching very well in AAA and posted a 0.5 WAR in 8 starts last year (5 really good ones) and this year he's had 1 bad start in CO ruining his overall line (ERA would be 2.66 otherwise) plus he's been shuffled back and forth between needing an arm in the pen for multiple innings or spot starting. Even though Phillips numbers are down he was shuffled back and forth earlier this year getting inconsistent PT sitting on our bench basically for 5-10 days at a clip (also a 1.4 WAR player in 100 games in MLB last year). One's value doesn't drop hard due to 2-3 months of slightly below average production offensively while still very good defensively with a hose. Also, if you think Whit is around a 4 WAR player moving forward then Hiura will be at least a 6 WAR player because he'll murder Whit offensively. Whit will never touch 19HR again and most likely won't exceed 10 moving forward and as he ages his SB total will drop. There's a lot to like about Whit but there's a slim chance he produces similar to what he's doing last/this year over the final 2yrs of the deal - in the meantime Hiura would still have 4yrs of control remaining at that point in time. Dubon has the potential to post 285/335/720 while stealing 30+ bases (from the SS position, not 2b) so why would we give up a package of extreme value for Whit? He's being overvalued hard core in this thread.

[adambr2]

I think Phillips has probably lost a pretty good amount of value. He's reverted back to his 2016 numbers which is an especially bad thing for Colorado Springs.

 

He has value still, no doubt, but I don't see anyone valuing him as a borderline top 100 anymore. I would agree that Woodruff is pretty frequently undervalued.

 

As you think Whit is being strongly overvalued I think you're strongly undervaluing him. Goodness, he was a 3.8 WAR player in 2017, is improving on that again in 2018, and is far cheaper and better than Gordon. There isn't much not to like besides age and lack of infield versatility.

 

Look how we valued Villar post 2016, and imagine he had another great 1st half in 2017 instead of falling flat on his face. Would you have traded him for a Dubon type then? I think not.

 

Speaking of Dubon, if we think he can be 285/335/720 with good defense at SS (and I'm not saying he can't,) if we think Arcia still has strong value, we should be shopping the hell out of Orlando.

[MrTPlush]

Did you really just compare Whit Merrifield to Mauricio Dubon and Dee Gordon.

 

Dee Gordon is a pretty questionable example. Not only was he incredibly expensive when traded, but his OPS only got past .750 once in his entire career...three years before the trade. His production and price aren’t comparable at all...so why compare the return.

 

Mauricio Dubon has 100 good ABs this year and suddenly he gets penciled in as a starter despite a pretty horrid 2017 campaign. I’m not really trying to discount Dubon as a prospect, I like him, but saying his value is as comparable as 4 years of Whit Merrifield is quite a statement.

 

At this point I’m just going to chalk it up as you really hate Merrifield for some reason. We all have those players I guess.

[homer]

Maybe tone it down a bit? Thanks.

[KeithStone53151]

Did you really just compare Whit Merrifield to Mauricio Dubon and Dee Gordon.

 

Dee Gordon is a pretty questionable example. Not only was he incredibly expensive when traded, but his OPS only got past .750 once in his entire career...three years before the trade. His production and price aren’t comparable at all...so why compare the return.

 

Mauricio Dubon has 100 good ABs this year and suddenly he gets penciled in as a starter despite a pretty horrid 2017 campaign. I’m not really trying to discount Dubon as a prospect, I like him, but saying his value is as comparable as 4 years of Whit Merrifield is quite a statement.

 

At this point I’m just going to chalk it up as you really hate Merrifield for some reason. We all have those players I guess.

 

This is going to make me feel dirty all over as I hate WAR, but for a quick and easy comparison I'll do it. Gordon posted 11.5 WAR from 2014-2017 which is just under 3 WAR per season. Merrifield posted 5.5 over the last 2 seasons, which is just under 3 WAR per season. Merrifield's career OBP is .334, Gordon's is .326. Their k rates are relatively similar and they play similar positions(2b first and can play CF/other outfield spots). That's very comparable. Merrifield has slightly more power, Gordon has a bit more speed. The contract is also very different, but you never are going to find an absolute perfect comparison when trying to determine trade value. If contracts didn't matter and I had to pick one of the 2, I'm taking Gordon. Since contracts matter greatly, Merrifield has a decent amount more value than Gordon...but we shouldn't be giving up a top 100 player for him. A 2 or 3 player package of of guys in the middle of our top 30 is probably about right.

 

I think the Dubon comparison is moreso what Dubon has a pretty good chance to become if he pans out. Dubon's skill set is fairly similar to Merrifields, except Dubon can play SS which makes him more versatile. I generally don't find Merrifield to be all that special of a player. He's a decent player with a lot of cheap team control, but are we even sure he'll be a good player and worth the arbitration cost in the last 2 years of that team control? I personally don't. His obp and slg are fringy as is, but his speed and versatility make up for it to a large degree. This guy is already almost 30, those SB number and ability to play CF is going to go away relatively quickly. If you take his 750 ops and reduce his SB total from 35 to 10...that's a very fringy player, barely worth rostering at 2b. With Hiura coming, this doesn't make sense. If we do trade Hiura for SP help(which is the whole point of this thread I believe), then Merrifield in my opinion should be valued as a guy we expect to get 2 years of solid yet unspectacular production from on a league min contract. Definitely not worth a top 100 player.

[MrTPlush]

I am just going to have to kind lay disagree.

 

I will say averaging out Merrifields WAR the last two seasons is not painting an accurate picture. That is a half year plus a a full year compared to Dee Gordon’s three full years and a half year.

 

Using BR.net and making the half years full years more accurately you get something closer to this:

 

Dee Gordon 2014-2017 = 3.2 WAR

 

Whit Merrifield 2017-2018 = 4.1 WAR

 

 

Dee Gordon also had a PED suspension that probably knocked his trade value a little bit and the money is a big deal. The surplus value Merrifield will hold the next 2.5 years is really really high. Not being an All Star player makes his trade value dependent on the market. Just looking at the cost and production no doubt he is worth giving up a Top 100 prospect. What are Peralta/Burnes these days generally speaking, #80ish? Woodruff is maybe a fringe guy?

 

If a team can land him not using a Top 100 prospect (or really close to it) that team is getting quite a value addition and the numbers would say that. You will get your moneys worth before a possible decline that may not happen for years.

 

I’d like to see us make a deal involving the Phillips/Woodruffs of the world, sweet deal for us. I just don’t see that being enough.

[Brewer Fever]

Maybe tone it down a bit? Thanks.

 

I just caught up reading the various forums here and kid you not, I saw 4 instances where the same poster was either belittling someone or being asked by another to chill or being warned by a mod. What the heck does it take? It's the same guy over and over again. I apologize in advance for adding another unwanted post to this topic, but for heaven's sake please clean this up.

[yfinn6]

Maybe tone it down a bit? Thanks.

 

I just caught up reading the various forums here and kid you not, I saw 4 instances where the same poster was either belittling someone or being asked by another to chill or being warned by a mod. What the heck does it take? It's the same guy over and over again. I apologize in advance for adding another unwanted post to this topic, but for heaven's sake please clean this up.

 

It's been this way since he started posting.