Derek Dietrich

[superfly]

Buy high much?

[brewmann04]

wow overpay IMO

[MrTPlush]

Buy high much?

 

Meh, he has years of not crazy production since 23. A good first half at the age of 28 isn’t going to skyrocket your value. If they think there is anything to it they will hold onto him. The offers they get will reflect what he has done before this year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dietrich only makes 2.9 million and there is no future obligation as he's in arbitration. I don't see them trading him unless they get an offer they like.

 

If he continues on his current pace this season, from 2016-2018 he will have averaged 1.9 WAR per season between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. He turns 29 in the near future so there is no reason to expect any significant regression from him through the remainder of his "controlled" seasons.

 

So crediting him with 4.6 wins over the next 2.5 seasons (0.8 + 1.9 + 1.9) would put his total value at 45.88 million...then I'd guess he makes something like 12.65 million over that span which brings his surplus value to around 33 million. Seems a bit high to me but it's a pretty strong indicator that the Marlins probably get 20 million in surplus value back and that number could push towards 25 million. Again, no reason that I can see where the Marlins should move him for any less than that.

 

IMO, fair deals would be something like:

-Derek Dietrich for Corbin Burnes plus Demi Orimoloye

-Derek Dietrich for Lucas Erceg plus Tristen Lutz plus Braden Webb

-Derek Dietrich for Brett Phillips plus Cody Ponce plus Zack Brown

 

I would think about trading one of Demi Orimoloye, maybe Lutz, maybe Webb, Maybe Phillips or maybe Ponce. The rest of those guys aren't worth Dietrich by himself, let alone as part of a package. No way on Burnes, Erceg or Brown.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The trade proposals in this thread... yikers.

[dacrew101]

Meh..

[Outlander]

I do think it could take a decent prospect like Burnes to get Dietrich because of the additional two years of control. Would certainly make Santana even less valuable however unless the Brewers really think Dietrich can play 2B everyday. Also do think the probability of a career year is high and regression in 2019.

[JosephC]

Not really sure why folks would consider 2018 to be any sort of plus-plus anomaly for Dietrich. He has a career high OPS of .833, but he posted an .800+ OPS back in 2015 in nearly 300 plate appearances. Completely removed 2018 and just look at 2016 and 2017, in those two seasons he posted a .263/.353/.424/.777 slash line. That's not "decent" MLB production, a .353 OBP and .777 OPS is pretty darn good and that's not even including what he's done this season. And consider this if he's plugged in at second base. So far this season there has been 45 players that have logged 100+ plate appearances as a second baseman in MLB. A .353 OBP would rank 6th on the list of second baseman and the .777 OPS would rank 11th. And again, that's totally ignoring the 2018 "career year."

 

Moving back to 2018. Dietrich has played mostly left field, obvious a position that is offense first. As a left fielder this season Dietrich has totaled 232 at bats and has slashed .319/.372/.509/.880...that OPS is 6th among qualifying left fielders. Compare these numbers to Christian Yelich. I'm not saying Dietrich is nearly as good a player as Christian Yelich. But go back and look at the 2018 offensive numbers between the two player and then come back and explain why it's a good idea for the Marlins to trade Dietrich for a package like Demi Orimoloye some other prospect that might scrape the bottom of the Brewer's top 30 prospect list. Dietrich is not some bat-off-the-bench utility player. Since the beginning of 2015, in nearly 1500 major league plate appearances, this guy has slashed .269/.351/.443/.794. That is not "just marginal" type offensive production.

 

And yet someone like Lucas Erceg isn't even considered for the discussion? A guy that has totaled a .272/.324/.430/.754 in over 1100 MiLB plate appearances as a corner infielder and clearly, without question has the down arrow on him (.310 OBP from last year has dropped to .299 this year). Yeah, I don't think I am over-valuing Dietrich, especially since my post with the proposals stated that the straight 33 million surplus value calculation seems high and I "fudged" it down to the 20-25 million dollar range. I think many of the fans here have an unrealistic view of where the Brewer prospects stand. Take a look at those prospects again, good chance that the majority of MLB GMs would look at what has happened this year and would say all but Brown and Orimoloye are "droppers." Unless the Marlins have some crazy obsession with players like Jake Gatewood or Trey Supak, I think it's totally unreasonable to think the Brewers could land a player like Dietrich while protecting all the top 10 organizational prospects. Just doesn't seem realistic at all to me.

[tmwiese55]

As long as he can play 2B it more than makes sense. Backup OF and 1B/3B then it's probalby not worth the cost since you already have a Thames at those other than 3B. Plus Santana if needed. Has to play 2B to get a lot of ABs.

[chuckiehacks]

Stearns seems to run a pretty tight ship when it comes to info leaking out about potential moves, so I take any reports like this with a huge, HH19-sized grain of salt. That being said, I think it's interesting that they might be looking at guys that can also play 3B. I hope that's not a sign that Shaw's injury might be worse than they're letting on.

[And That]

I think just focusing on the offensive side of it ignores that Dietrich is a pretty bad defender no matter where you put him. He's an above average offensive player, I don't think there's much denying that, but the defensive side weighs on his value.

 

I'd offer Domingo Santana and Cody Ponce. I realize it's kind of/sort of selling low on Santana but it would be worth the upgrade to the more consistent bat in Dietrich even if the defense goes backward a little. I'm not a huge fan of Ponce; maybe the Marlins are. You also have to consider that the Marlins have already done comprehensive work on the Brewers' farm due to the Yelich trade. They probably have a good idea of who they like.

[pacopete4]

Toss in the fact that he’s going to get a lot more expensive starting next season.

[JosephC]

Dietrich is a horrible defender in the outfield but I'd personally say the metrics just have him as slightly below average in the infield. His career -4.3 UZR/150 at second base is below average but not terrible. The DRS at 2B is a bad -18 but -14 of that came in 2012 and 2013. Since that time he's a -4 DRS in a bit over 600 innings. Not good but not horrible. Numbers at 3B are similar...show a below average defender but not a train-wreck.

 

That's why the 3 year numbers have him as a 1.9 WAR player...the defensive aspect definitely played into the evaluation. Can't imagine how much higher the WAR would be if he was actually a plus defender? Over the last 3 1/2 years he's OBP'ed .350+ and OPS'ed just under .800.

[And That]

Subpar, pretty bad, below average, whatever semantics you want to use - he's not an asset as a defender. He probably makes the team worse in that capacity.

 

His offensive profile worries me a bit as he's at a career low for BB%, a career high for K%, and a career high for BABIP. His XBH/H% is down and his K/BB ratio is more than double what it was last year. All of those things in relation to what is likely an unsustainably high BABIP would make him (for me) a likely candidate for some in-season regression. ZiPS and Steamer have him at 0.4 and 0.3 WAR for the remainder of the season, and it wouldn't shock me if that's how he ended up. Because of that, I'm also dubious that he's a 1.9 WAR player in 2019 and 2020.

 

I think I also just talked myself out of giving up Santana for him.

[Devinep]

I imagine the Brewers lineup with Dietrich and Realmuto and get a little moist

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Not much of an update, but Heyman speculates that the Brewers would/should be in on Dietrich. He is versatile, but I'm not real sure where he would play or who he would replace. Is he really an upgrade on our 2B/SS hodgepodge of Villar/Miller/Saladino/Perez/Orf?

[YelichPosse]

he's a little better than Hernan Perez. Not sure what he would do here? That's a move for the sake of making a move and no real upgrade to anywhere, in my opinion.

[JosephC]

I like Dietrich's bat but I'd pass. I still think his price-tag will be fairly high considering the offensive production, remaining control and reasonable salaries. But the only position where he would get regular at-bats is second base, and I think the odds are high that a move is made at shortstop and Miller gets bounced to second base. Making a move for Dietrich would probably cost a fair bit and then he'd probably be taking Hernan Perez's spot. While there is no question Dietrich would be a major upgrade offensively, Perez brings a far better glove and can play at shortstop and right field and Dietrich likely can't play either of those two positions (does have 1 2/3 innings as a MLB right fielder). Not worth even worth a 10 million dollar surplus value investment, and frankly the Marlins should be looking for twice that number to move him.

 

I have to disagree with Heyman on this one. But Milwaukee's middle infield has been so bad that it's pretty obvious that any warm body who has taken ground balls at 2B or SS is going to be linked to the Brewers from now until the end of the month.

[brewmann04]

I don't think he going to help get us to the playoffs and would cost to much IMO

[Eye Black]

Huh, the Marlins DFA’d Utility Player Derek Dietrich.

 

I assume they are going to work out a trade involving Dietrich.

 

From NBC Sports:

 

Dietrich, 29, is coming off another strong season in which he hit .265/.330/.421 with 16 home runs, 45 RBI, and 72 runs scored in 551 plate appearances. He played all over the diamond, spending most of his time in left field and at first base. Dietrich also played some second base, third base, and right field.

 

Dietrich is entering his third of four years of arbitration eligibility. He earned $2.9 million this past season and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $4.8 million in 2019. Cutting Dietrich represents a bit more than 4 million in savings for the rebuilding and perennially small-market Marlins. Dietrich should draw some interest, so the Marlins could end up trading him rather soon.

 

Wonder how J.T. Realmuto, now the longest-tenured Marlin, is feeling right about now.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

His versatility is nice on the surface, but he's below average defensively wherever you put him it appears. They could probably get away with hiding him at 2B, but the fact that he kills righties but is horrible against lefties would be a big issue.

 

But if Stearns was showing legit interest back in July, I imagine there is probably still some interest there. Because he was DFA'd, the cost would not be much. Actually probably close to nothing, as his arbitration number is going to be pretty significant.

[RWeeksFan23]

He's Scooter Gennett before his breakout seasons. (Not that that's a bad thing, I think we should look into him)

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He would be significantly cheaper than Schoop, and his versatility in the IF and OF would fit as a utility guy should Hiura prove ready to make the jump in 2019.

[JohnBriggs12]

He's Scooter Gennett before his breakout seasons. (Not that that's a bad thing, I think we should look into him)

 

He's a little older than Scooter was when he broke out, but considering the jump Yelich had moving to Miller Park, there's a good chance he'd put up bigger numbers. He had a pretty big jump in K's last year, but a big part of that was he wasn't hitting in front of guys like Stanton and Yelich. I always kind of liked him. He seemed to be a gamer. Gets hit by pitches a lot. Definitely would need to platoon him likely with Perez.

[JosephC]

Dietrich was terrible at the plate over the last two months of the season. .232/.289/.362/.651. Simply, I think this gave the Marlins a great chance to cheap out yet again and dump what will be an estimated 4.8 million contract next season. Dietrich has averaged 1.3 fWAR/bWAR over the last 4 seasons and last year was a down year for him after the last two months. I can understand why they had to move Stanton's contract, but I'd have a real hard time accepting this if I was a Marlins fan. 4.8 million for a 1.3 WAR player is not a bad investment by any means. They will likely have the payroll under 75 million next year, and it really looks like they'll be shooting for sub-50 million payroll in 2020.

 

Hopefully all the folks in south Florida will send a message to this team and completely ignore all the new logo/colors merchandise. Being a Marlins fan has to be a tough thing.

 

And I sure hope that instead of expansion, MLB owners first look at moving one of those two Florida teams out of the state because it's obvious, despite the number of good-sized markets in that state, that Florida has absolutely no business having two MLB teams. The real shame is that it probably can't be the Marlins because of the new stadium they just put up. It would be interesting how good that Tampa front office would if they got into a market where there was more support and they ended up with significantly more money to play with.