Most Likely Brewers Trade Chips

[Eye Black]

With the trade deadline just over a month away I thought it might be interesting to look at things a little differently. Obviously we don’t know which players the Brewers are going to target. We also don’t know whether they will ultimately make a big splash or stick with smaller moves. One thing I am fairly confident about, however, is the Brewers will make trades prior to this year’s deadline.

 

Who do we think are the players in the organization most likely to be traded prior to the deadline? This is obviously a subjective thing. There are players other teams will be more interested in than others, just as there are players the Brewers are going to be more willing to part with than others. I took a stab identifying which players I thought had some combination of both of those two factors.

 

Below is the list of players I settled on. Players that I think offer decent value to non-contending organizations, but also players that the Brewers could stand to part with if it makes the current MLB team stronger. I included some select stats (which were current going into Sunday) as well as the players status regarding either Rule 5 draft eligibility or 40-man roster spot.

 

1. Jake Gatewood, 1B/3B (Double-A: .236 BA, .746 OPS, 28.3 K%; Rule 5 Eligible)

2. Troy Stokes Jr., OF (Double-A: .248 BA, .808 OPS, 29.1 K%; Rule 5 Eligible)

3. Bubba Derby, RHP (Triple-A: 69.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 8.09 K/9; Rule 5 Eligible)

4. Marcos Diplan, RHP (Now in Double-A; High-A: 61.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 8.80 K/9, 40-Man Roster)

5. Luis Ortiz, RHP (Double-A: 42.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 9.86 K/9; Rule 5 Eligible)

6. Brett Phillips, OF (Triple-A: .246 BA, .750 OPS, 32.0 K%; 40-Man Roster)

7. Cody Ponce, RHP (Double-A: 58.0 IP, 4.81 ERA, 6.98 K/9, Rule 5 Eligible)

8. Kodi Medeiros, LHP (Double-A: 77.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 9.19 K/9, Rule 5 Eligible)

9. Trent Grisham, OF (Double-A: .241 BA, .693 OPS, 21.1 K%)

10. Adrian Houser, RHP (MLB; 40-Man Roster/Active Roster)

 

Some others I closely considered included:

 

Corey Ray, OF (Double-A: .245 BA, .781 OPS, 27.4 K%)

Brandon Woodruff, RHP (Triple-A: 40.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 7.75 K/9; 40-Man Roster)

Quintin Torres-Costa, LHP (Double-A: 30.1 IP, 1.19 ERA, 12.76 K/9, Rule 5 Eligible in 2018)

Thomas Jankins, RHP (Double-A: 73.0 IP, 4.44 ERA, 7.40 K/9)

Lucas Erceg, 3B (Double-A: .235 BA, .634 OPS, 15.5 K%)

Zack Brown, RHP (Double-A: 85.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 8.86 K/9)

Phil Bickford, RHP (High-A; Rule 5 Eligible)

Nate Griep, RHP (Double-A: 2.87 ERA, 7.76 K/9; Rule 5 Eligible in 2018)

Trey Supak, RHP (Double-A: 26.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 9.69 K/9, Rule 5 Eligible)

Nathan Kirby, LHP (High-A; Rule 5 Eligible)

 

Would be interested to hear what others think including a top 5 or top 10 most likely to be moved in your opinion?

[rickh150]

Making a big deadline trade usually involves well thought of prospects with tools that not only have performed well in the past, but also the present. Harrison, Diaz, and Brinson had above avg years last season, and that made them even more attractive. So, the guys that either haven't played this year or are hitting low avg/ low ops are out now for me.

Here's my top 3..

1. Hiura

2. Brown

3. Medeiros

 

 

 

More than anything, we should be dealing some MLB players or 2018 Rule 5 eligible players just to open up a few spots on the 40 man.

[LouisEly]

Really surprised Corey Ray isn't on your list. Is it because they don't have to protect him this offseason? Ray's resurgence could tempt some, and his June is looking like his past two seasons. Plus he's blocked by Cain and Phillips.

 

I think that guys coming off of injuries (Kirby, Houser, Bickford) won't have full value yet and won't be worth trading. Other than that, I think your list is solid.

 

1) Stokes

2) Phillips

3) Gatewood

4) Santana

5) Ray

6) Diplan

7) Ortiz

8) Griep

9) Ponce

10) Segovia

 

Others I could see as spare parts or smaller deals: Jankins, J. Lopez, Wilkerson, Ramirez. I believe Segovia is Rule 5 eligible.

[trwi7]

We're not going to get a whole lot if those are our most likely trade candidates.

[LouisEly]

I think that they are much more likely to take on salary and/or get a rental than make a big splash for a young player with multiple years of control. They can get quality if they will take on salary.

[Eye Black]

Really surprised Corey Ray isn't on your list. Is it because they don't have to protect him this offseason? Ray's resurgence could tempt some, and his June is looking like his past two seasons. Plus he's blocked by Cain and Phillips.

I actually made a mistake. I had Corey Ray on my list at #9 then shuffled around a couple of guys before I posted it and apparently unwittingly deleted him. I am going to add him the top of my “just missed” list.

 

Also, good point about the guys coming off injuries. I think they are players that will intrigue other teams, but might not return full value as you mentioned.

 

Regarding Segovia he is Rule 5 eligible, I am just lower on him being an asset that other teams would desire.

[JohnBriggs12]

Making a big deadline trade usually involves well thought of prospects with tools that not only have performed well in the past, but also the present. Harrison, Diaz, and Brinson had above avg years last season, and that made them even more attractive. So, the guys that either haven't played this year or are hitting low avg/ low ops are out now for me.

Here's my top 3..

1. Hiura

2. Brown

3. Medeiros

 

 

 

More than anything, we should be dealing some MLB players or 2018 Rule 5 eligible players just to open up a few spots on the 40 man.

 

I don't see Hiura as a guy the Brewers will move. He's arguably the best system bat since Ryan Braun came along and you just don't let those guys go.

[long ball]

I actually tend to agree with your list. Basically I don't see them parting with Huira or Burnes. I think it's unlikely they need to trade Peralta, Ray, Ortiz, or Woodruff too.

 

I don't think deGrom ends up getting moved and that's really the only guy rumored to be potentially available who I'd be interested in at a premium price.

 

I think Stearns will upgrade this team, but the players he's likely to target just aren't likely going to require highly touted prospects or even multiple top prospects. Ever since the change in draft pick compensation for free agents, rentals just haven't commanded major returns. Yu Darvish only managed Willie Calhoun who was 50-100+ on mid season lists last year. JA Happ isn't Yu Darvish.

 

We've already seen the return for Herrera wasn't crazy. The return for Darvish and Martinez wasn't crazy last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think that they are much more likely to take on salary and/or get a rental than make a big splash for a young player with multiple years of control. They can get quality if they will take on salary.

 

Agreed. Brewers can and probably will take on salary and they would prefer that to losing guys at the top of their prospect list.

[Eye Black]

We're not going to get a whole lot if those are our most likely trade candidates.

I was trying to keep in mind overall probability, and I believe there is a higher likelihood the Brewers make somewhat smaller moves than high profile ones. I could certainly be wrong, but I think it is more likely the front office looks to improve the margins rather than the core this deadline. I think you could acquire a player like Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, or even possibly JA Happ by putting together some combination of the prospects listed. I am skeptical the Mets are really going to move deGrom or Syndergaard, and even if they do I am not sure the Brewers are going to part with the entire top of their farm system which would almost certainly be necessary. I’m also skeptical the Brewers would consider Machado a serious possibility unless the Orioles significantly lower the “two top starting pitchers” type asking price.

 

I don’t think the Brewers are going to be willing to move Keston Hiura because there is such a clear path for his bat to be in the lineup by this time next year. I could see them possibly moving Freddy Peralta or Corbin Burnes, but it would likely have to be for a player with multiple seasons of control if you are moving those guys, and I am not sure how many of those type of players that would be able to provide a significant upgrade beyond just this season are going to be available this deadline? Outside of J.T. Realmuto I’m having trouble coming up with many.

[MrTPlush]

We acquired Christian Yelich on a pile of prospects selling high on them. I could definitely see that as something we do as an organization. So I would venture to guess Corey Ray being somewhat of a sell high guy and at a position of strength he should be a very likely trade chip.

 

I will say he is basically our golden boy during the Stearns era when it comes to the draft...so maybe we are still very very high on him.

[Eye Black]

We acquired Christian Yelich on a pile of prospects selling high on them. I could definitely see that as something we do as an organization. So I would venture to guess Corey Ray being somewhat of a sell high guy and at a position of strength he should be a very likely trade chip.

 

I will say he is basically our golden boy during the Stearns era when it comes to the draft...so maybe we are still very very high on him.

Personally I would be fine if they choose the “sell high” route, but you bring up a good point. Ray is a curious case from the standpoint the Brewers have been so high on him previously that it is possible they may still place a higher valuation on him than other teams are willing to (obviously just a guess).

[rickh150]

Making a big deadline trade usually involves well thought of prospects with tools that not only have performed well in the past, but also the present. Harrison, Diaz, and Brinson had above avg years last season, and that made them even more attractive. So, the guys that either haven't played this year or are hitting low avg/ low ops are out now for me.

Here's my top 3..

1. Hiura

2. Brown

3. Medeiros

 

 

 

More than anything, we should be dealing some MLB players or 2018 Rule 5 eligible players just to open up a few spots on the 40 man.

 

I don't see Hiura as a guy the Brewers will move. He's arguably the best system bat since Ryan Braun came along and you just don't let those guys go.

 

If we can get de Grom or Syndegaard for a Hiura centered package, it's on the table.

[Jkromb]

IF we have a chance at DeGrom or Syndergaard, we are doing whatever it takes to get one of them imo.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Making a big deadline trade usually involves well thought of prospects with tools that not only have performed well in the past, but also the present. Harrison, Diaz, and Brinson had above avg years last season, and that made them even more attractive. So, the guys that either haven't played this year or are hitting low avg/ low ops are out now for me.

Here's my top 3..

1. Hiura

2. Brown

3. Medeiros

 

 

 

More than anything, we should be dealing some MLB players or 2018 Rule 5 eligible players just to open up a few spots on the 40 man.

 

I don't see Hiura as a guy the Brewers will move. He's arguably the best system bat since Ryan Braun came along and you just don't let those guys go.

 

If we can get de Grom or Syndegaard for a Hiura centered package, it's on the table.

 

Yep. If those guys are in play, I imagine anyone not on the MLB roster (and likely a majority of the guys who are) for the Brewers would be in play. If the Mets want a package centered around Hiura, see ya Keston.

 

I don't understand those people who argue that making moves like this would gut the system and set the team back. Yes, they would take a tumble in the farm system rankings for awhile, but how about having some faith in Stearns and the scouting staff to keep replenishing the system? He's proven so far that he and his scouting staff are terrific talent evaluators, and these prospects traded off can and will be replaced by new high-end talent. A World Series is the goal ... not having the top ranked farm system.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

IF we have a chance at DeGrom or Syndergaard, we are doing whatever it takes to get one of them imo.

 

What makes you so sure of this? Both have had some injury issues. Noah usually doesn’t go deep into games. DeGrom is going to get very expensive very fast. I would be cautious with “whatever it takes” on these two. Granted, I’d love to have either. Just cautious on what we’d have to sell away. Hiura is off limits for me.

[adambr2]

Holding onto Keston has nothing to do with a desire to have a top ranked farm system. It has to do with losing 6-7 years of control over a possibly game changing bat at 2nd.

 

Yes, the goal is a World Series. This offense is not currently good enough to win a World Series.

 

DeGrom and Syndergaard do nothing to fix a feast or famine offense that has been shut out double digit times and held to 2 or less runs in over 40% of their games.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Holding onto Keston has nothing to do with a desire to have a top ranked farm system. It has to do with losing 6-7 years of control over a possibly game changing bat at 2nd.

 

Yes, the goal is a World Series. This offense is not currently good enough to win a World Series.

 

DeGrom and Syndergaard do nothing to fix a feast or famine offense that has been shut out double digit times and held to 2 or less runs in over 40% of their games.

 

It’s funny you mention the offense lacking. ESPN had Jim Bowen on talking about how the Brewers offense makes them a true contender. I couldn’t help but chuckle. He clearly hasn’t watched them enough.

[Dadbauer]

Milwaukee sports reporter Paul Imig just reported he had a luncheon with Stearns who said he was quite high on Zack Brown - I would cross him off the list as I'm sure a prospect like that doesn't move the needle enough in a trade to want to give him up if you value him highly. What it DOES do is make you wonder if a Burnes, Peralta, or Woodruff are more expendable as he is another guy who could be on the cusp at AA.

[OnaBadger58]

Holding onto Keston has nothing to do with a desire to have a top ranked farm system. It has to do with losing 6-7 years of control over a possibly game changing bat at 2nd.

 

Yes, the goal is a World Series. This offense is not currently good enough to win a World Series.

 

DeGrom and Syndergaard do nothing to fix a feast or famine offense that has been shut out double digit times and held to 2 or less runs in over 40% of their games.

Agreed. At this point, I'm not sure why pitching would be considered a priority. The season is old enough to understand that this offense is not going to be consistent.

[markedman5]

https://twitter.com/paulimig/status/1011676910143844352?s=21

 

Attended a luncheon w/ Brewers GM David Stearns. Few takeaways:

* “Not my style to mortgage the future.”

* Role of starting pitching is evolving, though it varies team-to-team. Points out it’s clearly different for Astros given their staff.

* Really high on AA pitcher Zack Brown

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://twitter.com/paulimig/status/1011676910143844352?s=21

 

Attended a luncheon w/ Brewers GM David Stearns. Few takeaways:

* “Not my style to mortgage the future.”

* Role of starting pitching is evolving, though it varies team-to-team. Points out it’s clearly different for Astros given their staff.

* Really high on AA pitcher Zack Brown

 

I guess I read that as any player who is traded is going to be one deemed expendable by Stearns. Of course, we have no idea who he deems expendable. While many of us are prospect hugging Keston Hiura, who knows if Stearns sees him as part of the team's longterm future, or as a high-end trade chip? If the David Stearns regime has taught me anything, it's that no prospect trade is going to really mortgage the future, as the scouting staff is much improved on what they had a decade ago, and even high-end prospects are replaceable.

[markedman5]

I took that to mean no blockbuster that will cost us our top 3 prospects.

 

Will trade from position of depth.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I took that to mean no blockbuster that will cost us our top 3 prospects.

 

Will trade from position of depth.

 

We have no idea who the Brewers deem as their top 3 prospects. All we know is what Baseball America tells us to believe.

[dacrew101]

Add Arcia, Zach Davies, and Corey ray