The costs of an inconsistent boom or bust offense

[adambr2]

I was curious to see how much it's hurting us in the standings to have such an inconsistent offense that breaks out on some days and completely disappears on others.

 

While it's obviously impossible to have a completely consistent offense, I noticed that we have now scored 2 or less runs after 9 innings in a shocking 31 of our games this season, or over 40%! To see if it was simply my own bias at work that that number seemed so high, I compared it to a random NL team that compared close to us in terms of total offense, so I went with the Phillies, and found that they have been held to 2 or less runs in just over 28% of their contests (21 out of 74), so our number does seem very high.

 

So I wanted to see how much that such inconsistency costs us -- where exactly would we be in the standings with a completely consistent, yet average, offense? No more 11 run outbursts, no more being shutout. I credited us for 4 runs per game. I gave us a win in any game that we had allowed less than 4 runs after 9 innings, and a loss if more. I gave us 50% wins and 50% losses in any game we allowed exactly 4 runs after 9, though one could argue our generally superior bullpen should allow for better than that rate.

 

I came up with 312 runs scored, a full 22 less than we have now, but a total record of 50-27, 5 games better than our actual performance.

 

It's hard for me to blame starting pitching when I see that number. 40% nearly matched our loss percentage. You are not going to win games very often scoring 2 runs.

 

What is my point? I guess that to me, fixing this lineup so it isn't so bottom deficient, is a bigger priority to me than pitching. Yes, I get that you can't perform with complete consistently like this but it's clear that our performance compared to average MLB teams is indeed extreme when it comes to inconsistency.

[LouisEly]

[sarcasm]The cost is a handful of fans who overreact to every single game.[/sarcasm]

 

It's a long season, things will ebb and flow. I wonder though how much of it has to do with guys showing up to the park not knowing if they'll be in the lineup because it changes from day to day.

 

It's been said that most relievers prefer to know their role because they can anticipate when they will be used and when they will need to start getting ready to come in. Mental preparation is just as important as physical preparation. I'd imagine the same thing goes for position players. Different lineup every day, lefties sometimes sitting versus righties, righties sometimes sitting against lefties. The closest thing to consistency has been Yelich in the #2 hole (but not knowing what OF spot he'll be playing), Cain in CF every game (but sometimes he bats leadoff and sometimes third), and Shaw hitting cleanup (maybe sitting against tough LHP). Maybe Pina in the #7 spot.

 

Braun doesn't know if he'll be in the lineup. Thames doesn't know if he'll be in the lineup (or what position he'll play). Villar sure as hell doesn't know if he'll be in the lineup. The Lazy Susan OF/1B and 2B/SS random lineups... has to be mentally challenging not knowing if they'll be in the lineup or what Counsell is going to do.

 

Maybe the solution if for Counsell to make it clear to the team what everyone's role is and who is going to be playing when.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm pretty sure guys know if they are playing the next day or not before they leave stadium after a game. And even if that's not the case, that's not an excuse. You need to show up with the mindset that you are starting and then adjust accordingly. And this isn't a new thing, Counsell has been doing this for over a year. The players know what's going on.

[Boomer5]

Counsel is probably the NL manager of the year. He has had this team over achieving for two years.

 

I suppose any manager can be questioned for individual moves, but he has earned our respect, or at least he should have.

[YelichPosse]

I was curious to see how much it's hurting us in the standings to have such an inconsistent offense that breaks out on some days and completely disappears on others.

 

While it's obviously impossible to have a completely consistent offense, I noticed that we have now scored 2 or less runs after 9 innings in a shocking 31 of our games this season, or over 40%! To see if it was simply my own bias at work that that number seemed so high, I compared it to a random NL team that compared close to us in terms of total offense, so I went with the Phillies, and found that they have been held to 2 or less runs in just over 28% of their contests (21 out of 74), so our number does seem very high.

 

So I wanted to see how much that such inconsistency costs us -- where exactly would we be in the standings with a completely consistent, yet average, offense? No more 11 run outbursts, no more being shutout. I credited us for 4 runs per game. I gave us a win in any game that we had allowed less than 4 runs after 9 innings, and a loss if more. I gave us 50% wins and 50% losses in any game we allowed exactly 4 runs after 9, though one could argue our generally superior bullpen should allow for better than that rate.

 

I came up with 312 runs scored, a full 22 less than we have now, but a total record of 50-27, 5 games better than our actual performance.

 

It's hard for me to blame starting pitching when I see that number. 40% nearly matched our loss percentage. You are not going to win games very often scoring 2 runs.

 

What is my point? I guess that to me, fixing this lineup so it isn't so bottom deficient, is a bigger priority to me than pitching. Yes, I get that you can't perform with complete consistently like this but it's clear that our performance compared to average MLB teams is indeed extreme when it comes to inconsistency.

 

 

This was a fantastic post. It puts to words what we feel in the IGT's.... where there are days where you just know you can turn it off and that's that... we have to shake that up somehow.

 

Either we score a dozen or we are down 5-0 and might as well go to a movie or cut the grass. ESPECIALLY on Sundays!

[adambr2]

Now instead of using a comparable offense I decided to compare us to the worst offense in the American League (Royals) and worst offense in the National League (Marlins) to see the results there.

 

The Royals are 29 for 77 (37.6%) in getting held under 3 runs and the Marlins are 30 for 76 (39.4%).

 

STILL not as bad offensively as we are in terms of total percentage of games held to 2 or less runs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ask the cubs about an inconsistent offense - when they win they bludgeon teams, but when they lose they look alot like the brewers do when they aren't scoring. Today was a rarity for them - they scored a bunch but still lost because their strained pitching blew up.

 

It's a mlb-wide issue that has been brought about by how the game has evolved.

[adambr2]

Ask the cubs about an inconsistent offense - when they win they bludgeon teams, but when they lose they look alot like the brewers do when they aren't scoring. Today was a rarity for them - they scored a bunch but still lost because their strained pitching blew up.

 

It's a mlb-wide issue that has been brought about by how the game has evolved.

 

But I have provided statistical examples of why we may be at the extreme end of inconsistency/boom or bust offenses.

 

Cubs - 25 of 75 games at 2 runs or less. 33.3%.

[sveumrules]

Inconsistency is hard to gauge because every team has a different baseline to deviate from. We score 4.37 runs per game compared to 4.77 for the Cubs, so naturally we should have a higher percentage of games with 2 or less runs scored because we score less runs overall.

 

Why just focus on the bust games with 2 or less runs scored? An inconsistent offense will also in theory have a higher percentage of boom games with 6+ runs scored.

 

Chicago has 54 of 75 games so far with 2 or less/6 or more runs scored, 72%.

 

We are at 52 of 77 games so far with 2 or less/6 or more runs scored, 67.5%.

[adambr2]

Inconsistency is hard to gauge because every team has a different baseline to deviate from. We score 4.37 runs per game compared to 4.77 for the Cubs, so naturally we should have a higher percentage of games with 2 or less runs scored because we score less runs overall.

 

But -- again -- I didn't start out using the Cubs as an example. I started out using the Phillies as an example because I wanted to use a comparable offense for data, then even compared us to the 2 worst offenses to show we STILL have a higher percentage of 2 or less run games.

[Brewer Fever]

Before I'm going to point in the direction of the uncertainty of playing everyday, I'm going to chalk it up to 4 consecutive black holes in the lineup most days. I think the number of days the offense doesn't show up has entirely to do with counting on half the lineup to produce the offense. Plug a SS, C, or 2B who can hit and I think there will be more consistency. Hopefully at least 2 of those 3 spots are filled soon.

[clancyphile]

One of the things to consider is this team still hasn't finished the "rebuild."

 

There is still no young catcher or second baseman, and Braun is declining, but still productive. The rotation is arguably patchwork.

 

When you think about it, 2017 was over-achieving in some ways (they hit on a couple of surprises, like Brent Suter, who has held down a spot in the rotation), and that is carrying over to 2018 (with Villar's partial rebound and Guerra's rebound).

[pacopete4]

We have two young catchers at AAA and a guy recently drafted at 2B that is raking no matter where you place him. We just aren’t using them right now. Kinda wish we would.

[long ball]

Sahadev Sharma wrote a very similar post today for The Athletic about the Cubs.https://theathletic.com/407142/2018/06/25/kris-bryants-sore-shoulder-is-a-minor-concern-compared-to-his-and-anthony-rizzos-struggles/

 

It's interesting that the Cubs and Brewers are essentially the exact same in run prevention. 3.68 RA/G for the Brewers vs 3.71 RA/G for the Cubs. The have a very similar record. Yet the Cubs are at 4.79 RS/G and the Brewers are at 4.34 RS/G.

 

Sharma has some charts in his post showing the run out come frequency for the Cubs vs other teams in the bigs. With the off day today maybe, I'll play around and make a similar chart for the Brewers.

[buckybrewer232]

I would agree that there are too many games where the Brewer's offense scores 2 or less runs. However, I don't think it's a boom or bust/consistency issue, it's just not a good offensive team- and hasn't been going back to last July. As has been mentioned, the main issue is the bottom half of the order. The bottom of the order hasn't just been below average, it's been flat out awful. It seems like all of the "boom" games are when the bottom half of the lineup actually contributes.

 

Before yesterdays game, they showed some numbers on the Brewer's starting rotation over the last 10 games. They basically were 1st in every statistical category in the NL over those last 10 games. The Brewers went 6-4 in that stretch. When your starting rotation goes through a stretch of being the most dominant rotation in baseball like that, you should be going 8-2 or 9-1. The Brewers basically wasted it, and that's with Aguilar literally providing the only offense all game in one of the wins.

[3and2Fastball]

The "boom or bust" offense of 2017 is, in part, a direct reason for the acquisitions of Cain & Yelich. Yelich is a little streaky, but both Cain & Yelich are great contact hitters who are versatile offensively and aren't swinging for the fences in every at bat.

 

Add in Keston Hiura who is hitting .364 in AA and the Brewers will fairly soon have 3 great hitters at the top of the order....

[Baldkin]

The teams OPS+ in Day games compared to the league average in day games is 89 (.679 team OPS, .717 league). The teams OPS+ in night games compared to the league average in night games is 106 (.750 team OPS, .727 league)-- That 17 point gap is huge.

 

They have been horrible in day games. 3.9 R/G compared to 4.6 R/G for night games.

Edit:

 

14-17 during day games, so 31-15 for all other games.

[jerichoholicninja]

The teams OPS+ in Day games compared to the league average in day games is 89 (.679 team OPS, .717 league). The teams OPS+ in night games compared to the league average in night games is 106 (.750 team OPS, .727 league)-- That 17 point gap is huge.

 

They have been horrible in day games. 3.9 R/G compared to 4.6 R/G for night games.

Edit:

 

14-17 during day games, so 31-15 for all other games.

 

Day games are generally "give any good players a day off" game so that makes sense.

[istanbultaye]

Didn't rluzinski (spelling?) post a study on streakiness and found that a streaky offense would outperform a consistent offense, or something similar to that? It was something like a hypothetical exercise rather than a full on comprehensive analysis for 100+ years of baseball or anything, but I remember seeing something like that several years ago.

[Baldkin]

The teams OPS+ in Day games compared to the league average in day games is 89 (.679 team OPS, .717 league). The teams OPS+ in night games compared to the league average in night games is 106 (.750 team OPS, .727 league)-- That 17 point gap is huge.

 

They have been horrible in day games. 3.9 R/G compared to 4.6 R/G for night games.

Edit:

 

14-17 during day games, so 31-15 for all other games.

 

Day games are generally "give any good players a day off" game so that makes sense.

 

They are almost 20% worse during day games. That's pretty bad.

 

The biggest offenders:

Travis Shaw, with a .998 OPS during night games and a .554 OPS during day games -- he's started 29 of the 31 day games so far this season.

 

Ryan Braun: 18 Day games started (28 Night games) .902 OPS at night, .424 OPS during the day.

 

Orlando Arcia: 17 Day Games started, .583 OPS during night games, .260 OPS during day games

[YelichPosse]

The teams OPS+ in Day games compared to the league average in day games is 89 (.679 team OPS, .717 league). The teams OPS+ in night games compared to the league average in night games is 106 (.750 team OPS, .727 league)-- That 17 point gap is huge.

 

They have been horrible in day games. 3.9 R/G compared to 4.6 R/G for night games.

Edit:

 

14-17 during day games, so 31-15 for all other games.

 

Day games are generally "give any good players a day off" game so that makes sense.

 

They are almost 20% worse during day games. That's pretty bad.

 

The biggest offenders:

Travis Shaw, with a .998 OPS during night games and a .554 OPS during day games -- he's started 29 of the 31 day games so far this season.

 

Ryan Braun: 18 Day games started (28 Night games) .902 OPS at night, .424 OPS during the day.

 

Orlando Arcia: 17 Day Games started, .583 OPS during night games, .260 OPS during day games

 

Holy crap. That is BAD in day games. Every day game (which then is also every Sunday) - it seems like we are behind the 8-ball to start the game... now I realize more and more it's not just the feeling but it is literally backed by the math.

[istanbultaye]

Has Victor Santos been hanging out with the team lately?

[Ennder]

Usually these types of stats are just random noise. You need much bigger samples to assume they are real. It is why you don't use things like day/night splits when deciding what to do in fantasy baseball, every study done has shown they just aren't predictive most of the time.