JA Happ

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

How about Woodruff and Santana for Happ? Both teams pick up the other teams salary.

[MrTPlush]

Domingo Santana has struggled for a few months and now we are going to package him with a solid pitching prospect for a rental. Ignoring the fact he was an above average hitter over the course of 4 years before. I don’t think his power has disappeared forever.

 

Yikes, no thanks. This trade looks horrid for us.

[adambr2]

Too much. Selling way low on Woodruff and Santana, and we end up adding an extra $7M to our payroll.

 

I wouldn't give up much more than someone like Cody Ponce.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Happ pencils in as #1 in the rotation. Santana has no future in Milwaukee with Cain, Yelich, Braun, Thames (but hopefully, not too often in the outfield) and a host of up and coming outfielders. Peralta and Burnes should be off the table unless multiple years of control for a pitcher are offered.

 

Cody Ponce for JA Happ? The Blue Jays would hang up immediately. Happ will draw a MLB ready pitcher plus, easily.

[adambr2]

Happ pencils in as #1 in the rotation. Santana has no future in Milwaukee with Cain, Yelich, Braun, Thames (but hopefully, not too often in the outfield) and a host of up and coming outfielders. Peralta and Burnes should be off the table unless multiple years of control for a pitcher are offered.

 

Cody Ponce for JA Happ? The Blue Jays would hang up immediately. Happ will draw a MLB ready pitcher plus, easily.

 

Valuing guys based on our needs and our surplus areas is a terrible way of doing business. That's fine if they hang up. Don't really care, and wouldn't adjust my offer based on what others would pay. I also don't think you're properly discounting rentals, especially a rental that isn't particularly cheap.

[long ball]

Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

 

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

 

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff

[paul253]

I’d do Woodruff and maybe Lopez. I’ve always liked Woodruff but he’s been surpassed by Peralta and we still have Burnes too. He needs a chance to start regularly to see what he can do and unfortunately it doesn’t look like he’ll get that chance here. Lopez really has no future here either other than maybe long man out of the pen. It’s not a ton and Happ has been pretty good the last few years but the fact that he’s gone after this year lowers his value.

[pacopete4]

Giving up quality arms in their mid 20’s for an arm in his mid 30’s is the exact opposite of what we should be doing.

[paul253]

Hanging onto prospects for too long is the exact opposite of what we should be doing too. We can’t keep every single prospect we have.

[KeithStone53151]

If Toronto sells, all we have to do is beat another teams offer and a potential comp value.

 

Toronto has an incredibly solid core, I could see them being interested in MLB caliber talent with multiple years of team control unless they go into a total rebuild(which with vlad coming I doubt). I'm not sure what their farm system looks like for 1b, but could Happ for Aguilar make sense for them? I could see them being interested in Houser or Derby as well, upper level guys that can help out soon. That probably makes more sense than them targeting 18-20 year olds. I wouldn't want Vlad coming up to a junk team.

[long ball]

It doesn't really matter how old Happ is given he's a rental anyway and he's pitching very effectively so far this year (and has the past 3 season too).

 

If your argument is that trading one of the Brewers better pitching prospects for any of the rental SP I would tend to agree. I don't think I would give up Woodruff, Peralta, or Burnes Ortiz for a rental SP. Probably wouldn't give up Ortiz either.

 

Happ is probably the only rental SP I want. I would be ok with Tyson Ross too, but at a lower price.

[MrTPlush]

JA Happ is good, but he isn’t a game changer. It should take a guy in the 10-15 range to headline max. A Houser or Ponce doesn’t seem crazy...though Ponce has really struggled. Not only that, but you probably only give up one other player who isn’t highly ranked.

 

If teams start throwing out their Top 10 50 grade prospects to get Happ they are likely to be extremely dissapointed after3 months.

[KeithStone53151]

For responses to some other posts, I agree with general consensus that we would never trade Santana for 2 months of Happ, much less Santana and Woodruff. Generally we should target younger pitchers, but we can make select moves of trading for established talent as long as we don't get carried away like Melvin did and then have 5 straight years of awful drafts.

 

I'm not sure I'd trade Woodruff straight up for Happ. I feel like we can get more for Woodruff in a different move, maybe trading for someone with multiple years of team control. Woodruff is a fairly safe bet to stick in the back end of a rotation with #3 upside at peak, that definitely has value...much more than 2 months of Happ. He also has upside from there if he improves, but at his age I can't see any major improvements aside from maybe command.

[KeithStone53151]

JA Happ is good, but he isn’t a game changer. It should take a guy in the 10-15 range to headline max. A Houser or Ponce doesn’t seem crazy...though Ponce has really struggled. Not only that, but you probably only give up one other player who isn’t highly ranked.

 

If teams start throwing out their Top 10 50 grade prospects to get Happ they are likely to be extremely dissapointed after3 months.

 

And if other teams do that...then they won the bidding, good for them, we'll look elsewhere. There should be enough options available that we don't have to heavily overpay. Trading someone like Ray or Brown or even Grisham is probably an overpay. We should be sending them a high floor type prospect in the teens somewhere with a limited ceiling. That's why I like the idea of Houser, Derby, Ponce, etc.

[pacopete4]

Hanging onto prospects for too long is the exact opposite of what we should be doing too. We can’t keep every single prospect we have.

 

Doesn’t mean you just trade them away for a pitcher that is on his last legs and might not even change our rotation much. Oh and then you lose that pitcher after the year anyways. Seems like a really dumb use of currency IMO.

[paul253]

If teams start throwing out their Top 10 50 grade prospects to get Happ they are likely to be extremely dissapointed after3 months.

 

Or they could be extremely happy if the guy they acquire helps win them the division and make a deep playoff run and the prospect they send in return fizzles out. You never know how these things will turn out.

 

As I said I like Woodruff. And I know that’s he’s still young and still has a lot of potential. But in his 12 major league starts the last two seasons he has left A LOT to be desired. It’s entirely possible that he’s your prototypical “AAAA” pitcher who never does anything at the major league level. If that happens to be the case getting JA Happ, even for a few months, would be a steal. Everyone always assumes the prospects we move are going to meet or surpass their potential once we move them. That’s not always the case.

 

If Toronto offered Happ for Woodruff right now I’d probably do it. Then focus on solidifying the lineup.

[KeithStone53151]

If teams start throwing out their Top 10 50 grade prospects to get Happ they are likely to be extremely dissapointed after3 months.

 

Or they could be extremely happy if the guy they acquire helps win them the division and make a deep playoff run and the prospect they send in return fizzles out. You never know how these things will turn out.

 

As I said I like Woodruff. And I know that’s he’s still young and still has a lot of potential. But in his 12 major league starts the last two seasons he has left A LOT to be desired. It’s entirely possible that he’s your prototypical “AAAA” pitcher who never does anything at the major league level. If that happens to be the case getting JA Happ, even for a few months, would be a steal. Everyone always assumes the prospects we move are going to meet or surpass their potential once we move them. That’s not always the case.

 

If Toronto offered Happ for Woodruff right now I’d probably do it. Then focus on solidifying the lineup.

 

Woodruff has pitched to roughly a 4.2 FIP over 12 starts and accumulated almost 1 WAR. And those are his first 12 starts. It's more likely that he improves given his age than he gets worse. I don't think he improves a ton, but Woodruff appears to be clearly better than you are giving him credit for. I think his floor is a back end starter in the mid 4s ERA with a couple high 3s seasons at peak. That's his FLOOR. His ceiling isn't incredibly high, but he could pitch to a 4ish ERA for 5 more cost controlled seasons. That's significant value, more than 2 months of Happ.

 

I could see Woodruff being traded, just not for Happ.

[trwi7]

Agree with those who wouldn't go any higher than a Ponce type for Happ. Rentals are just not something we should be doing.

[jerichoholicninja]

I really don't think Happ will bring back much where ever he goes. A couple month of an aging mid rotation starter generally isn't worth much on the trade market.

[MrTPlush]

I really don't think Happ will bring back much where ever he goes. A couple month of an aging mid rotation starter generally isn't worth much on the trade market.

 

I’ve seen his age mentioned countless times. He is a 3 month rental. His age is almost completely meaningless.

[KeithStone53151]

I really don't think Happ will bring back much where ever he goes. A couple month of an aging mid rotation starter generally isn't worth much on the trade market.

 

I’ve seen his age mentioned countless times. He is a 3 month rental. His age is almost completely meaningless.

 

Agreed. Using the extreme example, if we had a need at 3b...I would have no problem renting Beltre depending on the cost, and dude is 40. He can still hit and defend the position, over 3 months...that's all that matters.

[JosephC]

Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

 

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

 

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff

 

Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.

[KeithStone53151]

Santana and Woodruff is more than I think it would take. Definitely more than I would give up. It might take someone like Woodruff though.

 

Drew Pomeranz is the closest deadline deal I could find recently that would be similar to Happ. Pomeranz had 2.5 years of control and only garnered a top 75ish prospect 1:1. Pomeranz had 17 starts for the Padres before being traded, throwing 102 innings with a 2.47 ERA. (3.15 FIP)

 

Happ has a longer track record than Pomeranz did, but I don't think Happ costs more than someone like Woodruff

 

Anderson Espinoza was rated much higher when that trade was made. Baseball America's 2016 mid-season list had him ranked #24. I seem to remember some lists at the time had him in the late teen's. Espinoza was definitetly a consensus top 25 prospect in all of baseball when that trade went down.

 

That is correct, but this was clearly a product of big market bias. At the time, I thought he was extremely comparable to Diplan...only one pitched for the Brewers while the other pitched for the Red Sox.

 

With that said, Pomeranz isn't really comparable because of the remaining contract. A rental versus 2.5 years of control, not even close to the same.

[Boomer5]

Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.

[KeithStone53151]

Happ is pitching like one of the best starters in the game. 1 Whip, 10 K/9. We won’t get him for a lower end prospect because there will be plenty of competition.

 

His ERA and FIP are around 3.5. That's good, but one of the best starters in the game? Sorting by ERA, there are 29 starters with a better era. By FIP there are 20. He wouldn't even by our best starter based on those metrics, and our rotation leaves a lot to be desired.