Two months until the draft

[colbyjack]

Well, the draft is two months away. While there hasn't been too much news on the high school front, at least not enough that has leaked out, the talent towards the top of the draft has stayed pretty much the same.

 

I'm curious to get people's thoughts to see what way you're leaning. There doesn't seem to be as much interest this year as there was last year, although I think it was a lot more fun tracking the progress of all of the college pitchers when it seemed as though it would be a lock that the Brewers would select one of those arms.

 

So, who would you take? Would you focus on a positional player of need? Would you adhere to the best player available philosophy? Would you lean towards Drew or Weaver should they re-enter the draft (note to bjkrautk, you're not going to be able to sign them at a discounted rate)? Pitcher vs. hitter? Do you want someone that could move up quickly, or are you looking for the player with the highest upside?

 

And if your answer is Alex Gordon, Justin Upton or Cameron Maybin, mention someone else as well since I don't think any one of those 3 will be available. If you want to include those guys, maybe offer your top 5 players that you would like to see the Brewers select.

[DHonks]

I'm not a huge follower of these players this early, but I do have my simple thoughts.

-I look forward to seeing the scouting video on this Romero kid.

-Last year I asked a simple question...who looks and pitches the most like Sheets. The answer was a Righty from BC, I think Lambert. So I'd like to pose that question again.

 

-My philosophy this year is I'd like a high impact HS hitter or--at this point--Romero. As I've said before, I'd avoid Catchers at all costs. Every catcher we draft in the top 15 rounds is a wasted Hart or Hendrickson. I'd rather focus on developing defensive catchers and just make it a point of trading for or signing offensive catchers. So I see this playing out as a perfect 5-5 split of pitchers-hitters in the first 11 rounds. I just think college hitters might try to ask for a lot, whereas HS hitters and college pitchers is the way to go. Of course, I'm never afraid to draft a HS arm if they look good (last year I thought Bailey and Rogers looked the best in their videos of the top 10-15 pitchers).

Hopefully the true draft preview guys can be more specific. I just have more general philosophies to follow.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

My choice would be down between Clement, Bristow and Greene.

 

I know drafting for need is always bad, but at this slot, with so many guys being basically the same ceiling wise after the big guys and the Boras boys, why not draft for need with the pick?

 

When it comes down to it I think Clement would be the guy.

 

I can't see Jack Z making that call 'tho . . . . .

 

I would probably get a pitcher before Zimmerman 'tho, I'm concerned with a lot of guys at the corner spots with "line drive swings" turning into Burroughs ans Hinske clones.

[Cyanogen5]

I wouldn't mind drafting Weaver since we don't have a 2nd round pick. I don't remember what he was asking though, and I am afraid that it would be too much. So, I think I would like to see us pick up a guy like Romero or Greene, and then target a guy who has "fallen" with our third rounder.

[brew2]

I went to see Justin Bristow play last week & I wasn't disappointed. He pitched 4 innings & came out with a 9 -2 lead (he gave up 1 earned run & struckout 11 of 12 outs). At the plate, he hit HR's his first 2 times up (first one went 400'+ to straight away CF - it was climbing as it went out). The 2nd HR was a rope to LF that never got 15 feet off the ground. After those 2 AB's, he got plunked in the ribs & walked. I heard he's hit 3 HR's in only 11 or 12 official at bats as most teams don't pitch to him. I think his team is 7 - 0 and he's 3 -0 on the mound. But his size & athleticism is very impressive for a HS player. He looks like a man among boys on the field. Lots of scouts at the game - I heard his velocity was 89 - 92 & it looked like it. Going back this week to see him play the field - will try to report later.

[nikip43]

1. Cameron Maybin

1a. Ryan Zimmerman

 

Reading the perfect game "hot list" and reading what Maybin is doing really has me really intrigued. In case you haven't read it (it's linked in Colby's Perfect Game feature thread) Maybin is hitting something like .800 and according to the source he hasn't struck out all year. That is pretty impressive for a guy with power potential along with everything else you could ask for in an outfield prospect. I think it would be difficult for him to climb the system with the likes of Moss, Gwynn, and Krynzel (a lot tougher than say taking a catcher or 3rd baseman) but it would definatly be a pick that you can't pass up if he falls to you. The potential is too great in this kid, especially at the 5 slot if he falls.

 

I also list Zimmerman because Gordon will be gone and I think taking a flyer on Zimmerman wouldn't be the worst move. For starters he's supposed to be a great defender at third. If you have the defensive aspects of the game down, you can spend more of your time refining your hitting as you climb up the minor league rankings. Also he is really starting to hit this year much like he did in the Cape Cod league where he came near close to winning the "MVP" of that camp.

 

If Maybin falls I would grab him and look for him to become the new top prize in the system once Fielder and Weeks graduate. If Maybin, Gordon, and Upton go in the top 4 though, I would look for an outside shot to sign at slot value (potentially lower) in Zimmerman who could play in a more advanced league early because he defense is good enough. I don't care about the "lack of power" that he is supposed to have. Great hitters develop power and I think that Zimmerman has the ability to become a darn good hitter someday.

 

Gordon would be a pipe dream, but I would not cry spoiled milk to land the second best 3rd baseman and watch him flourish.

 

Also by not wasting money in the first on a "money" guy, it frees up the Crew to invest more in their '04 DFE, some "tough signees", or look outside the country for talent like they did a little bit this offseason.

[colbyjack]

DHonks, I had a short video clip of Romero but now I can't find it. MLB always does an awesome job with their previews, but I think you will like his delivery. No wasted movement, and an electric arm.

 

st year I asked a simple question...who looks and pitches the most like Sheets. The answer was a Righty from BC, I think Lambert. So I'd like to pose that question again.

 

Lambert was the most similar to Sheets physically, I don't think he necessarily threw the most similar to Sheets. In the same fashion, I would say California prep RHP Jeff Lyman represents Sheets the best physically, with a shorter yet stockier build. He has the same builldog mentality, but his delivery is much, much different. No one's delivery is really like Sheets' of course, but no one's delivery is like Lyman's either, who uses a classic, roundhouse delivery in which he shows his back to the batter's box. He has a lively fastball that has been clocked in the mid-90s this spring, and a pretty good breaking ball.

 

For pure stuff, I'm going to say Sean O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan has a great fastball-curve combo. He also doubles as a hard-hitting 3B/OF, so that comparison doesn't apply http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Florida RHP Bradley Clark has a low-80s curveball, which would be the most similar to Sheets' in velocity.

 

I'll go with O'Sullivan, just because I love the way he pitches, spotting his fastball perfectly to set up his curveball, which is a dominant pitch when it's on.

 

As I've said before, I'd avoid Catchers at all costs. Every catcher we draft in the top 15 rounds is a wasted Hart or Hendrickson. I'd rather focus on developing defensive catchers and just make it a point of trading for or signing offensive catchers.

 

As much as I like Clement, I keep going back to this point as well. I don't think it's as easy trading or even signing a decent one on the FA market, although we did this past offseason with Damian Miller, but drafting and developing catchers is never an easy task.

 

Thanks for your reports on Bristow brew82, I hope to see more of them when you have the chance. He's one guy whose name just keeps coming back to me. I may like some other players better, but Bristow seems to fit the Jack Zduriencik profile better than any other profile that projects to be there at our #5 overall selection.

[bjkrautk]

1.) Upton

2.) Gordon

3.) Hochevar

4.) Zimmerman

5.) Drew

6.) Clement

7.) Romero

 

I went 7 deep, which should leave me covered if the team wishes to eschew Boras clients entirely. A good deal of the ranking still hinges on Rickie Weeks' ability to play second base. If he can hold the position, then Zimmerman / Gordon become more interesting, and I'm more willing to take a chance on Clement (thinking he has all the tools to play 3rd if he struggles behind the plate). If I'm less sure about Weeks up the middle, Drew is a decent hedge (with the thinking that he could end up at either 2b or 3b as needed).

 

I think Maybin would be a decent pick as well, but there's much more of a risk / reward dynamic there, and I have to discount him slightly based on the expectation that he'd take an extra 1-2 years to go through the system as compared to the players I've named.

 

 

(And yes, I think Drew could be signed with a bonus slightly above slot money for the # 5 pick, roughly $3 mil. I realize Colby and I disagree on that point, and we'll leave it at that.)

[UWRyan428]

I, personally, think Cameron is going to fall to us. Upton and Gordon look to be as good as gone, but there figures to be at least one team before us (Nationals or Mariners) that is going to take a pitcher. If not, my pick would be Hochevar or Romero, depending on our preference of arms. But I don't see why so many are discounting the selection of Clement. A power-hitting catcher who could make a pretty seamless transition to the hot corner (well in my estimation because of his athletic ability). Zimmerman would be a safe pick, but I don't think SAFE is what Mr. Attanasio is going to be telling Mr. Melvin to be. Also, I could see us targetting Jered Weaver. He is last year's Golden Spikes Award winner. The guy pitched in Mark's backyard. But if we picked him so early, it would give Boras a lot of leverage in negotiations, so I'm left wondering if this is our best course of action. Of course, if one of the BIG 3 position players falls to us, this will probably be a moot point. :-) Here's hoping...

[CC Badger]

While I may not very knowledgeable about the draft and I don't have a great eye for talent I will add my two cents. In my opinion it isn't so much who the Brewers draft it is who they don't. Without a second round pick I don't think the Crew are in a position to possibly have a first round pick hold out or possibly re-enter the draft. With that said I feel the team should avoid players that have employed the services of Scott Boras. Please correct me if I am mistaken but I believe that Weaver, Drew, Greene, Hochevar, Pelfrey and Neighborgall are all represented by Boras. I do believe I have heard or read on this board that the new ownership will not be intimidated to deal with Boras which is wonderful to hear. The downside is that they will be dealing with Boras who I consider bad for the game of baseball. He gets his players great deals but in my opinion negatively impacts the game.

 

I have enjoyed Colby's updates very much and I am quite intrigued by Ryan Zimmerman. He is a good hitter, plays great defense and could develop into some power. It is a position of need and I would welcome that pick. If Hardy's defense is as good as advertised and Zimmerman can make it to the big leagues the left side of the infield would be very good defensively which would offset the potential right side of the infield of Fielder and Weeks both having question-marks regarding their defense.

 

If not Zimmerman then I think the best non Boras available is the way to go.

[colbyjack]

Despite disagreeing on Drew's future bjkrautk, I enjoy your priority list.

 

Although I have to ask both you and UWRyan428 two things:

 

1. Why do you like Hochevar and not Pelfrey?

 

2. Why do you think Clement could move to 3B if he fails behind the plate?

 

I too prefer Hochevar over Pelfrey, but Pelfrey does have the more dynamic pure stuff. I'm thinking my Kyle Sleeth comparison for Hochevar may be too great to ignore, but I'm wondering if there are certain things that just stand out to you.

 

And several people have brought Mark Attanasio's name up in regard to the draft. Do you really expect him to be that involved in the draft, at least when it comes down to making an actual selection? A lot of people thought Doug Melvin and Ulice Payne might have an influence on Jack Z. After taking a brief one-year high school hiatus in selecting Rickie Weeks and Tony Gwynn Jr. in the first two rounds in 2003, Mr. Z. bounced back with Rogers & Gallardo last year. Mark A. may open up the pocketbook a la Arte Moreno of the Angels, but I really can't see him getting involved, pointing to someone like Jered Weaver as pitching in his old backyard. Isn't he originally from the NYC area? Should we assume that he will push from anyone from the NYC area, possibly St. John's Craig Hansen, another Boras advisee?

[bjkrautk]

Colby -

 

I could pretend that I've actually seen either of them pitch, but you'd probably start to see through that pretty quickly. I do have some tangible reasons, though:

 

Most pitchers over 6-6 (Pelfrey's 6-7) struggle with their mechanics; I can think of one major exception, but there are more Jeff Juden's than Randy Johnson's. (I just did a quick check on that adage, of all the MLB pitchers over 6-6 carrying a K:BB ratio greater than 2-to-1, they're all either: (a) rookies with an insignificant # of innings pitched, or (b) Randy Johnson.)

 

Plus, Hochevar has more pitches in his bag (although you and BA disagree over whether he has a change up), and has a teriffic background and makeup. I like that, not unlike J.J. Hardy, both of his parents were professional athletes. Plus, the guy lives and breathes baseball; he built himself a pitching mound as an 8th grader!

 

Admittedly, though, my two main sources of info are BA and you. BA likes him more than anyone else in the draft other than (the one player I have actually seen play,) Alex Gordon. (I caught part of the extra-innings game against Texas last weekend; just my luck, he was walked twice.) I doubt Luke will be a Brewer, because of the quality options at a perceived organizational need (3b, since DM wants to keep Weeks at second) and his choice of agents, but I do like the guy.

[Nefaste]

Quote:

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And several people have brought Mark Attanasio's name up in regard to the draft. Do you really expect him to be that involved in the draft, at least when it comes down to making an actual selection?

---

 

I believe that if Weaver, or a Boras client, or just a potentially expensive high end pick in general was going to be taken, that Mark A. would at the very least be informed, and probably involved in financial discussions in the days leading up to the draft. I mean it can be a $5 million decision when dealing with Boras clients with high demands. This could be even more true if the Brewers decide to compensate for the loss of a 2nd round pick by taking an expensive option in the 3rd round that may have fallen due to signing demands.

 

Then again he may just say "You've got $6 million for all 50 picks, split it up how you want to".

[colbyjack]

I wasn't trying to put you on the spot bjkrautk, I prefer Hochevar as well, I was just curious to learn why you preferred him over Pelfrey.

 

I agree on the athletic bloodlines, and he has very good makeup. His repertoire is another plus. I got to see Hochevar pitch twice last year and I was really impressed with the way he pitched and commanded the strike zone. I'm hoping Tennessee finds their way to TV at some point this spring on a Friday so I can watch him again.

 

As for Mark A's involvement, I agree, if it comes down to a financial decision, he very well could be involved. I just don't see him coming to the scouting department laying down what he believes the pick should be. I could see the scouting department approaching Mark A. with the possibility of spending more on a player that has fallen.

[SheetsCyYoung04]

Mayo Has his draft assessment. Can of interesting to read on a boring off day

 

www.minorleaguebaseball.c...&fext=.jsp

[scoop53714]

With the rise of players like Fielder, Weeks and Krynzel and the demise of Gold, Nuegebauer and Jones, wouldn't it be a good idea to go for a position player early?

 

It seems our track record would indicate that selecting pitchers in the 1st round is a bit of a pipe dream while the position player would have a much better chance at ever making a big league impact.

 

I know there are good pitchers in the draft but it just seems like getting a pitcher from the draft to the starting rotation is like trying to kick an egg across a parking lot.

 

There are never any gaurentees but it seems like Milwaukee might be better off trying to add more pop to their future Krynzel-Weeks-Fielder-Cruz-Nelson lineup than trying to hit the jackpot at long odds with a pitcher.

[Nefaste]

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As for Mark A's involvement, I agree, if it comes down to a financial decision, he very well could be involved. I just don't see him coming to the scouting department laying down what he believes the pick should be.

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Agreed. Mark A. has made it pretty clear he's a hands off kind of owner, at least for the time being (until he gets his feet wet). The man is an experienced executive, and Executive Takeover 101 states that you should send clear signals of your willingness to change, to improve an organization, and to listen, then promptly step out of the way and don't rock the boat while you get your bearings.

 

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With the rise of players like Fielder, Weeks and Krynzel and the demise of Gold, Nuegebauer and Jones, wouldn't it be a good idea to go for a position player early?

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I hear you scoop, but pitching is so darn important, even if it is like banging your head against a wall, you have to just keep, well, banging your head against the wall! No team finds post season success without top flight pitching, and top flight pitching never comes cheap, especially to small market teams. I don't think that means you have to find it in the first round, but I think the chances are quite a bit higher if you do within the first three. Yovani Gallardo comes to mind as a recent nugget mined in the second round (or is the nugget mining reserved purely for Doug Melvin?) Regardless, in my mind, "best player available" remains the best rule of thumb. I also am a big believer in spending big on pitchers who have dropped due to various problems. Nick Adenhart comes to mind as someone I really wish the Brewers would have taken a chance on. Tommy John surgery that early means he comes back with fewer question marks, and it generally has pretty good outcomes. Even if a first rounder flames out, a guy like Adenhart can come out of nowhere and really make a draft a winner.

[gregmag]

I think scoop makes a very good point. Think about our young minor league starting pitchers at the upper levels. What rounds were they drafted in? For a more complete snapshot, I'll include our major league starters or potential starters under 30:

 

MLB

 

Capuano (trade; originally 8th round)

Davis (minor league F.A.; originally 10th round)

de la Rosa (trade; originally Mexican F.A.)

Glover (minor league F.A.; originally 15th round)

Obermuller (trade; originally 2nd round)

Santos (minor league F.A.; originally Dominican F.A.)

SHEETS (1st round)

 

AAA

 

Capellan (trade; originally Dominican F.A.)

Hendrickson (10th round)

Housman (33rd round)

Pratt (trade; originally 9th round)

 

AA

 

Ballouli (6th round)

Eveland (16th round)

[Jones (1st round; injured)]

Parra (26th round)

[saenz (28th round; injured)]

Sarfate (9th round)

Woolard (trade; originally 10th round)

 

First of all, this seems like a pretty fair collection of upper-level pitching talent. I don't know the minors well enough to say with authority how it stacks up against other organizations, but all the guys on that list are either major league starters, major league middle relievers with a chance to start, or legitimate minor league starting propsects.

 

So what, exactly, do we have to show for selecting pitching in the upper rounds of the draft? I'll hold off the big obvious answer for last, because I think he's the exception that proves a certain rule. Other than the big obvious answer, the only guys on that list drafted above round 6 are arguably the two least likely ever to be successful major league starters: Wes Obermuller and Mike Jones. Obermuller doesn't even count, because we didn't draft him. After Jones, your next highest draftee is Khalid Ballouli at round 6. After that we're down to round 9, or round 8 if you want to talk about trade acquisition Chris Capuano.

 

The big obvious answer, of course, is Ben Sheets. There's a very good argument, if the question is "Should you draft pitchers at the top of the draft?," that one Ben Sheets erases five years of otherwise futile choices. But I don't buy that argument at that level of generality. Sheets was special on the day he was drafted, in a sense that no other recent Brewers pitching draftee has remotely approached. He was the best college pitcher in the draft, or very nearly the best, with health, upside, and polish. The risk factor in drafting him was as close to zero as it ever gets, and everyone knew it. He spent only one full season in the minors, which surprised no one. So if the question is, "Do you draft a truly special, advanced pitcher in the upper rounds?," the answer is yes.

 

But I don't see any evidence on this list that drafting merely mortal pitchers in the top 5 rounds has done this team any good at all. Have we even gotten any useful trade bait out of upper round pitchers that I'm forgetting? Of course, Rogers, Gallardo, or Wahpehpeh *could* pan out beautifully. But looking at the upper levels right now provides a very useful and realistic basis for evaluation, and what it shows is that the Brewers have amassed solid pitching depth with no contribution (save the obviously exceptional Sheets) from pitching draftees in the top 5 rounds and (with apologies to Brian re: Khalid) virtually no contribution from pitching draftees in the top 8 rounds. Don't these facts warrant some change in strategy?

 

I would be inclined to limit pitching draftees in at least the top 5 rounds to (1) college sure things a la Sheets (who don't come around very often) and (2) the occasional guy who falls, or about whom we've figured out something that other teams haven't. I'd be more liberal in drafts/rounds where position prospects were unusually thin. Beyond that, the Brewers' recent experience suggests that you do better by cleaning up in the middle rounds and acquiring other teams' middle round pitchers with upside in trades.

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

I agree, if the Crew takes a pitcher this year that player had better be as close to being a sure thing as possible. They've definitely had better luck developing hitters in team history, particularly shortstops. Thanks Greg for digging up the backgrounds of our top pitchers, it definitely puts the notion in perspective.

 

I would be inclined to limit pitching draftees in at least the top 5 rounds to (1) college sure things a la Sheets (who don't come around very often) and (2) the occasional guy who falls, or about whom we've figured out something that other teams haven't.

 

I think your #1 point is a little too extreme. While I would lean towards a hitter in the first round of the draft (not only because of team history, but based on the info I dug up in my player procurement story), you just can't limit your options like that. It's like drafting exclusively from the college ranks or not taking HS pitchers. While the Brewers haven't had much luck with pitchers drafted early in recent years, there are plenty of solid arms to be had in rounds 2-5. I do agree that you're much more likely to find an arm later in the draft than you are a hitter.

[gregmag]

I'm going to stick to my guns for the moment, because I think this is a really interesting discussion. I do understand that, when you're actually the person who has to make an important decision, dogma looks bad for a lot of good reasons. Flexibility and pragmatism always have a lot to recommend them.

 

But Colby, I can't agree that swearing off most pitchers for the first five or eight rounds would put you at a comparable disadvantage to swearing off college (or HS) players in those rounds. I think the facts support a distinction. If the Brewers had drafted based on the standards I suggested, they could only be better off than they are now, because they would have drafted some potentially useful guys in place of some guys who proved useless. I know the approach I'm suggesting *sounds* dogmatic, but I'm only suggesting it because some pretty cold logic supports it. You may be right to criticize the approach as inflexible, but isn't it possible that the Brewers' recent experience teaches us something true and useful about the risk-benefit analysis for drafting pitchers?

 

Greg.

[colbyjack]

Greg, I'm the guy that has suggested that the Brewers draft shortstops given their history drafting successful shortstops, even if they moved on to play other positions. Check out the last installment of my draft retrospect series, as I even suggest that the Brewers may be wise to focus more on college players as well:

 

Draft Retrospect 4

 

And I don't necessarily disagree with your suggestion. Given the Brewers' history in drafting and developing high profile arms they may want to shy away from drafting pitchers early. However, as I've said time and time before in relation to so many different subjects, I would never limit my decisions to certain groups no matter what the circumstances are. On top of that, who is to say:

 

1. That the Brewers haven't already adhered somewhat to this notion. Keep in mind, they never expected to have JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer (they were actually targeting Neugie in round 1 in '98 before Gold fell, and then Neugie fell to their 2nd rounder) or Mike Jones (ranked in the preseason as the #1 prep player) fall in their laps where they did, so that actually fits one of your two standards.

 

and

 

2. That things won't get better, particularly given the story that Bill posted on the homepage in which he conducted an interview with BP's Will Carroll. Things under Doug Melvin seem to be significantly different that they were under Dean Taylor and Sal Bando, and who knows, maybe the Brewers finally will be able to produce more of their high-profile arms in future years.

 

I agree, it is an interesting discussion. When everything else is even I typically go with the percentages, and without a doubt the percentages benefit hitters in the first round. Not just in the Brewers' history, but in all of baseball. With most of the top pitchers available for this June's draft advised by Scott Boras, and the number of talented young hitters available, I take a hitter almost without thinking twice.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I would be inclined to limit pitching draftees in at least the top 5 rounds to (1) college sure things a la Sheets (who don't come around very often) and (2) the occasional guy who falls, or about whom we've figured out something that other teams haven't.

 

This statement reminded me that the media a few years ago when Beane eschewed Sheets in favor of Barry Zito and how much of a genius he was for doing so.

 

Where's that camp now that the worm has turned, so to speak?

 

Anyway, I keep hearing the rumors out the M's camp that Bavasi has focused on hitting, but I bet the board goes Gordon, Drew, Upton then Maybin.

 

Asumming SOMEBODY in the top 4 wants a pitcher or Drew, Maybin may be falling.

 

He is a perfect Jack Z. pick.

 

Is there any hope of this? Or is signability going to insure that either Kansas City and Washington take the High Schoolers?

 

Jim Bowden's draft history is confusing and unpredictable to say the least, but It looks like he favors pitching.

 

Thinking about it I would say the draft will shake out like this?

 

1. AZ - Alex Gordon (will stay away from Boras clients like the Plaugue, and Gordon is the safest pick, which they need)

2. KC - Justin Upton (A better fit could not be thought of. The two are perfect for each other)

3. Sea - Drew (if available), Maybin if not. (Will be looking to hit a PR home run with this one. Low risk will be a consideration)

4. Was - Pelfrey?

5. Milw - Maybin (if available), (?)Zimmerman(?) if not.

 

Can anyone see Jack Z reaching for Bristow or McCutchen at this point?

 

Would Bristow be a huge mistake over Zimmerman?

[colbyjack]

This statement reminded me that the media a few years ago when Beane eschewed Sheets in favor of Barry Zito and how much of a genius he was for doing so.

 

Where's that camp now that the worm has turned, so to speak?

 

Beane didn't take Zito over Sheets due to talent. He took Zito because he signed catcher Gerald Laird (I think that's his name) the week before the draft as a DFE for a lofty cost. That made him have to look for a budget-oriented pick. Sheets signed for what, $2.4+ million, with Zito signing for well below $2 M. Sheets was expected to be the A's pick all along (if he fell that far) until the Laird signing.

 

Is there any hope of this? Or is signability going to insure that either Kansas City and Washington take the High Schoolers?

 

You're right EDR, it would seem as though someone in the top 4-5 picks would take a pitcher. Who knows, maybe we'll be the first team that does, as the top pitchers are advised by Boras. On pure need, you would think the D-Backs would target pitching if there was a guy worthy of the #1 overall selection, and who knows, maybe they'll look for somewhat of a bargain pick since they also own the #1 pick in the sandwich round and every round thereafter, along with an extra, high-3rd rounder from the Ms for Sexson.

 

But I wouldn't count on any of the teams picking ahead of us to go the cheap route. Maybe the Nationals, since their ownership situation really hasn't been settled, but Jim Bowden definitely had more money to play with this past offseason. The Royals haven't really been cheap in recent years given the extra picks they've had the past 2-3 years. The Ms have a first-rounder for the first time in a few years, the 3rd overall to boot, but they don't pick again until the 4th round. And of course the D-Backs are guaranteed to spend at least $3 million.

 

Bill and I were talking about this yesterday, but Cameron Maybin is the perfect Jack Z. pick. If he falls, which certainly is possible, I can't see anyone else being our pick.

 

Can anyone see Jack Z reaching for Bristow or McCutchen at this point?

 

Would Bristow be a huge mistake over Zimmerman?

 

I don't think Bristow or McCutchen would really be that great of a reach. McCutchen is a heck of a hitter, not just a toolsy speedster. Bristow is a great athlete. I would prefer Zimmerman, but I'm preparing myself for the standard Jack Z. prep pick.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Who knows, maybe we'll be the first team that does, as the top pitchers are advised by Boras.

 

Which is why I think one of them may go.

 

The Diamondbacks have no need for more hitting, but I doubt they would select anybody that Boras is selling. They certainly must be sick of the guy at this point, but there's no way they're getting ANY kind of bargain at #1.

 

As we found out last year, any agent worth his salt knows how to hold out, just not as long as Boras seems to be able to.

 

Seattle signed one of his boys (Beltre) in the off season for "respectable" money for a Boras client and the new M's regime doesn't remember A-Rod-Gate and they really need to sell a big name pick to the sports talk radio fans here to keep people interested in a .500 team.

 

They need headlines. Drew, Weaver, or Hochevar would supply that, and taking Weaver away from the Angels would be a win also. Money won't really be an issue for them.

 

I look at the Royals and see a good plan, but certainly they're going to take best available. Meaning Gordon or Upton. I'm sure they feel as good as the Brewers did with the Weeks or Young choice a few years ago. No way to go wrong.

 

Washington is the wild card. Did Bowden shake up the scouting staff? I'm sure he'll break the trend of Major League ready relievers being selected, but still I think somebody like Townsend (who has LESS negotiating power this year) might be a factor with them. The free agent signings probably impinge them as much as helps them since they obviously have a fixed budget and can't go over slot money for anybody (per MLB), yet still have less picks for the Castilla and Guzman signings.

 

Beane didn't take Zito over Sheets due to talent. He took Zito because he signed catcher Gerald Laird (I think that's his name) the week before the draft as a DFE for a lofty cost. That made him have to look for a budget-oriented pick. Sheets signed for what, $2.4+ million, with Zito signing for well below $2 M. Sheets was expected to be the A's pick all along (if he fell that far) until the Laird signing.

 

Once again, this doesn't strike me as *Genius*, but then again a lot of people still think Zito is the second coming of Steve Carlton.

 

Now Laird, where?s that guy now?

 

Again, it sounds like I'm ripping Beane and I'm not, I just like to point out when people say what he does is *brilliant* and then a few years later forget the move entirely.

 

From Peter Gammons, 2003 . . . .

 

 

Quote:

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And while Beane did order the drafting of Zito, it was not a Zito/Ben Sheets decision based on money, everyone who was close to that draft knows it was because Beane was convinced Zito was special. Oh, by the way, thankfully Beane did order them to draft Zito, as he did Mark Mulder over Ryan Mills.

---

 

If only they had a young stud like Jeremy Bonderman to fall back on . . . .oh, wait . . . .

[colbyjack]

The Diamondbacks have no need for more hitting, but I doubt they would select anybody that Boras is selling. They certainly must be sick of the guy at this point, but there's no way they're getting ANY kind of bargain at #1.

 

I don't necessarily agree with this, pointing to the story you provided about Drew signing with an indy league team and his current negotiations with the D-Backs. The D-Backs and Drew/Boras have continued to talk the entire time, even with the shakeup in the D-Backs front office. They could have just as easily shut down the negotiations like Angels' GM Bill Stoneman did with Jered Weaver.

 

As we found out last year, any agent worth his salt knows how to hold out, just not as long as Boras seems to be able to.

 

Well stated EDR. Time is the most powerful form of negotiation.

 

I think if Drew re-enters the draft, Seattle is a pretty astute call.