Kelvin Herrera to Nationals

[Warning Track Power]

[JDBrewCrew]

Jon Morosi

Verified account

@jonmorosi

OF Blake Perkins, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, and RHP Yohanse Morel heading to #Royals in Herrera trade. @MLBNetwork @MLB

 

Kelvin Gutierrez | Rank: 10 (Preseason: 10)

Team: Harrisburg Senators (AA) ETA: 2019

Position: 3B Age: 23 DOB: 08/28/1994

Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 3" Weight: 216 lb.

Signed: April 10, 2013 - WSH

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Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 65 | Field: 55 | Overall: 45

Gutierrez established himself as a prospect during an All-Star campaign in the Class A Short Season New York-Penn League in 2015, when he recorded the circuit's fifth-highest average (.305) and tied for the league lead in doubles (21). He made a smooth transition to full-season ball in the Class A South Atlantic League the following year, earning midseason All-Star honors in the process, and was in the midst of a similarly strong offensive campaign in 2017 before a June ankle injury wiped out much of his second half. Gutierrez did manage to make up for some of that lost time in the Arizona Fall League, and the Nationals added him to their 40-man roster in November.

 

The Nationals view Gutierrez as one of the better pure hitters in their system. He has a relatively simple inside-out stroke from the right side of the plate that produces hard contact across the whole field and fuels his projection as an above-average hitter. And while he hasn't yet figured out how to apply his raw power during games, club officials do expect him to clear more fences once he becomes more comfortable firing his barrel and turning on the ball.

 

Primarily a shortstop early in his career before shifting to third base in 2014, Gutierrez moves well for his size at the hot corner, showing athletic actions and plenty of range, with near plus-plus arm strength that is a clean fit at the position. Meanwhile, after committing 25 errors in 2016, Gutierrez was focused and consistent in '17, prompting many evaluators to peg him as a future above-average defender.

 

Blake Perkins | Rank: 11 (Preseason: 11)

Team: Potomac Nationals (A Adv) ETA: 2020

Position: OF Age: 21 DOB: 09/10/1996

Bats: S Throws: R Height: 6' 1" Weight: 165 lb.

Drafted: 2015, 2nd (69) - WSH

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Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45

The Nationals made the most of their two second-round picks in the 2015 Draft by selecting the best defensive outfielders still on the board in Andrew Stevenson and Arizona high school product Perkins. Though Perkins was Washington's second choice, he received the highest bonus in its Draft crop at $800,000 for his five-tool potential. Those tools were on full display during his first full season in the Class A South Atlantic League, as he hit for both average and power, paced the circuit in runs scored (105) and walks (72) and showed impact potential in center field as well as on the basepaths.

 

The Nationals helped Perkins become a switch-hitter upon entering the pro ranks, and the club is thrilled with his early returns from both sides of the plate. He made huge strides as a lefty in 2017, collecting 25 of his 39 extra-base hits including all eight of his home runs from that side, albeit with some swing-and-miss tendencies. He's more contact-oriented with modest gap power from his natural right side, while his patient approach and discerning eye stands out on both sides of the plate.

 

Perkins' plus speed translated to 31 steals in his first full season, and he should continue to swipe bags with ease thanks to his strong on-base skills. He gets excellent jumps and has range for days in all directions in center field, with average arm strength that allows him to play all three outfield positions if needed. Perkins has the ceiling of a top-of-the-order center fielder, with a fourth-outfielder floor thanks to his across-the-board tools.

[long ball]

Not thrilled about the Nats getting better, but Herrera wasn't going to be a target of the Brewers.

 

Will be interesting to see if this gets the hot stove cooking earlier. With the number of teams clearly out of it already it might make sense. Although teams like the Giants, Rockies, Angels, Twins, Tigers, etc who are on the fringe probably won't want to commit to moves until closer to the deadline to see where they stand.

[JDBrewCrew]

Sam Dykstra

@SamDykstraMiLB

16s16 seconds ago

More Sam Dykstra Retweeted Jon Morosi

Royals, who could use help on the farm even after a big Draft, get No. 10 and 11 prospects from Nats. Morel is 17, just started in DSL.

[markedman5]

That seems like a pretty big haul for a rental closer

[Warning Track Power]

That seems like a pretty big haul for a rental closer

Who (likely) won't be closing for them. Sean Doolittle has been pretty lights out.

[brewmann04]

yes looks like teams are going to have overpay for arms again.

[long ball]

Most of the reaction has been that the return was pretty light. No real big "get".

[Eye Black]

Impressive that Kelvin Herrera has only walked two batters this season in 25.2 innings pitched. Kudos to the Nationals for striking early. If you are going to add substantial pieces in a pennant chase, doing so six weeks before the trade deadline offers some nice added benefit.

[reillymcshane]

Most of the reaction has been that the return was pretty light. No real big "get".

I would agree. Gutierrez and Perkins are okay, but nothing special. Morel would seem like a complete lottery ticket - a guy that young.

 

But the Royals must like the guys to have done the deal.

 

Herrera would have been great for us - but I think we are saving our bullets for some other targets.

[MadThinker88]

2 big impacts for this deal.

1: Herrera having post-season success. Neither Doolittle or Kintzler has been part of a post-season series win.

 

2: Starts to set some market prices for trades. A rental reliever just netted 3 prospects, 2 of which in top 11 of an organization. Some might have thought Herrera nets even more but KC was not about to let Kelvin get hurt and have the value plummet to near nothing..

[JosephC]

I'd have both Gutierrez and Perkins as role player prospects and Morel as a fringe prospect. That totals 13.73 million in prospect surplus value. With a win being worth 9.16 WAR, that means Herrera has to be worth 1.5 WAR over the remainder of the season for this to be a break even trade. Herrera's average WAR between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs so far is 1.1. If he continues at this pace, the math says he'll be good for 1.4 WAR over the remainder of the season. Looks about as even a trade as you can get from the numbers perspective.

[MrTPlush]

Why can’t Herrera or any other good bullpen arm be a target for the Brewers? We have built our success off the bullpen and have a pretty weak rotation. Limiting rotation innings and having even better bullpen arms sounds like a good way to improve.

 

Maybe not a focus at the deadline, but I wouldn’t mind a good value add if it comes.

[CheezWizHed]

Why can’t Herrera or any other good bullpen arm be a target for the Brewers?

 

Could be a target, but should be a lower priority. Pushing the worst reliever from the BP is a very small gain compared to shoring up other areas where bigger gains could be had.

 

Will be interesting to see if this gets the hot stove cooking earlier.

[sarcasm]Technically the Brewers started the Hot Stove by trading for Kratz.[/sarcasm]

[Lee16]

That doesn't seem like a big haul at all. Yeah, it's a rental but its a rental with an extra 6 more weeks than usual. I'd say a pretty good deal by the Nationals.

[adambr2]

It's not a big haul, but it's not an insignificant return, either. Something comparable on our end might have been Dubon + Gatewood + Braden Webb. I think that would have been tough for many to stomach for a rental. Maybe not, I really don't know.

[adambr2]

Also I am very tired and first read this as 'Keston Hiura to Nationals.'

[JosephC]

The Royals may have the weakest system in all of baseball (definitely bottom five) and MLB.com has slotted Gutierrez at #8 and Perkins #15 in their system. I wouldn't slot Gutierrez in the top 10 of an average organization but that could be debatable. As I posted above, I think the swap was about as even as could be and seeing the updated Royal's rankings hasn't made me change my mind.

[jerichoholicninja]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

[KeithStone53151]

This feels like if we gave up 2 prospects in the Diplan/Gatewood/Stokes territory of our rankings. I think this is a pretty good haul for the royals, but I wouldn't call this an insane overpay. They are also getting him over a month earlier than normal, so it's not apples to apples with other rentals. I wouldn't want the Brewers to pay that much for a reliever, especially considering we don't really have a spot for a reliever...especially when we upgrade the rotation and Suter becomes long man.

[KeithStone53151]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

 

You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.

[bill hAll Star]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

 

The Adam Lind trade is calling on line 1. Not every bag of magic beans is the same, but I think one needs to always consider that a team may prefer upside over ranked prospects that may have a low ceiling.

[jerichoholicninja]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

 

You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.

 

We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.

[bill hAll Star]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

 

You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.

 

We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.

 

I'm going to make a guess that the Royals' front office, while this move completely could backfire like any other move, huddled and decided that they trust their analysis of these players and therefore thought this was the best value they'd get.

 

I can't imagine they called a meeting and decided that while they were pretty certain that other teams would come in with a haul of prospects in return, they are just gonna do this one...just because. They must like what they see in these prospects - even more than a potential comp pick.

 

The only other aspect that I guess one could say is that it helps them tank a bit. But I would imagine that any fan or front office person would call that a very small detail because trading him now instead of late July probably is the difference of 1-2 wins if any. I'm not suggesting that they traded him now because of that.

[KeithStone53151]

A half season of Chapman brought the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball and more. Herrera is not Chapman level but he's still top flight. The Royals could have and should have gotten a better return. Especially 6 weeks before the deadline. You can't tell me some team wouldn't have topped this offer on July 30 or 31.

 

You cannot compare any trade that's ever happened in baseball to that. Pure desperation to maximize their chances of ending 108 years of losing. I have a hard time believing 2 months of Mike Trout would cost more in prospects.

 

We're about a month away from desperation setting in with multiple teams. If you're going to trade one of the top relievers in baseball and possibly your most valuable trade chip at this time of the season you better be getting quite a haul back. If this was the best offer available on July 31, then so be it. But if it's the middle of June and you're offered a potential 4th outfielder and a fringy 3B, you gotta hold out for something better.

 

Yeah there's definitely a gap between the Cubs move and this move. I'm not that familiar with the prospects, but based on their ranking it still seems like a good haul. Herrera isn't Chapman, he's not even close to Chapman. His peripherals are not on par with his ERA, he's due a bit of regression.