Davies Injury Update [7/25 -- "Setback"; back tightness]

[djoctagone]

79 pitches last night for the sky sox.

 

if davies gets one more start for the sky sox on 11 august and were to be activated to start, he'd either be pitching on three days' rest against the cubs, or on five days' rest against the cardinals (the club has two off days that week).

 

however, the brewers could look at davies two days after his 11 august rehab start and just decide to option him. if he was recalled on 1 september, davies would spend less than 20 days optioned this year and would not burn his second option.

 

the brewers would have an off day in each of the two august weeks following when davies could be eligible to make his first activated start.

 

assuming that the current starting rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra in order to put in davies. if guerra is optioned, he'd burn his final fourth option.

 

with september roster expansion looming, the brewers are in a very advantageous position for roster management.

[JohnBriggs12]

"assuming that the current rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra"

 

Not so fast. There's no way Junior Guerra gets optioned. None. What it boils down to is whether they go with a 6 man rotation (which was the plan before Davies had his setback with his back) or Peralta gets optioned. The latter may depend on how Peralta performs Thursday. I'm betting they go with a 6 man rotation, with Davies starting Sunday vs. Atlanta. Yes I realize the schedule is light from here on out, but it will be basically each starter getting one start per week. That will keep each guy strong down the stretch and still limit Peralta's innings. So for me Lyles replaces Albers, then Davies replaces Barnes on the 25 man.

[bill hAll Star]

Peralta would either be optioned or moved to the bullpen given that his innings limit is approaching.

[JohnBriggs12]

Peralta would either be optioned or moved to the bullpen given that his innings limit is approaching.

 

I believe Peralta's inning limit is likely 150 (increase of 30 innings over his 2017 total), which would give him roughly 35 more innings, which is about 6 more starts. With a 6 man rotation that would take him to mid to late September when they could go back to 5 man rotation or possibly have Nelson back for a couple starts. If he's pitching well, I think you have to keep him going as long as possible rather than have him use up innings in AAA or adjust to a different role.

[Roderick]

I wouldn't go with a six man rotation until September. We need that 8th guy in the pen. Even if it is Houser just to be available to clean up 2-3 innings in games up/down 4+ runs.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

79 pitches last night for the sky sox.

 

if davies gets one more start for the sky sox on 11 august and were to be activated to start, he'd either be pitching on three days' rest against the cubs, or on five days' rest against the cardinals (the club has two off days that week).

 

however, the brewers could look at davies two days after his 11 august rehab start and just decide to option him. if he was recalled on 1 september, davies would spend less than 20 days optioned this year and would not burn his second option.

 

the brewers would have an off day in each of the two august weeks following when davies could be eligible to make his first activated start.

 

assuming that the current starting rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra in order to put in davies. if guerra is optioned, he'd burn his final fourth option.

 

with september roster expansion looming, the brewers are in a very advantageous position for roster management.

 

There is no way Junior gets optioned. Him and Chacin have been the most consistent to date. We will need him down the stretch.

[FVBrewerFan]

"assuming that the current rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra"

 

Not so fast. There's no way Junior Guerra gets optioned. None. What it boils down to is whether they go with a 6 man rotation (which was the plan before Davies had his setback with his back) or Peralta gets optioned. The latter may depend on how Peralta performs Thursday. I'm betting they go with a 6 man rotation, with Davies starting Sunday vs. Atlanta. Yes I realize the schedule is light from here on out, but it will be basically each starter getting one start per week. That will keep each guy strong down the stretch and still limit Peralta's innings. So for me Lyles replaces Albers, then Davies replaces Barnes on the 25 man.

 

You keep saying this in various threads. I get this is what you would have done (or still would.) But when did anyone from the Brewers say a 6 man rotation was the plan? I don't remember them saying that, and it doesn't make any sense to take a needed arm out of the bullpen.

 

In fact, if anything, I think they would go to a 4 man rotation with all the days off they have moving forward. But I don't think they do that either. They will use those off days to rest starters as needed, keep Peralta's innings down, etc.

[tmwiese55]

Right out of the break when they had to give a starters schedule the team put out a 6 man schedule. Then an injury happened and it went away. I'm fairly sure he's not making that up. Who knows how long it would've lasted or if it would've just been one time, who knows.

[bill hAll Star]

4 man rotation with a Lyles + Peralta piggyback game here and there makes sense. Throw Davies in there if he's good to go and it might be a Davies/Lyles/Peralta spot a few times in August.

[Roderick]

Am I the only one hoping Davies doesn't start for us at all? Or is everybody resigned to the fact that the Brewers will start him when he says he's healthy?

 

One game could be the difference for playoffs and you trust Davies to start? Use Woodruff if we need a starter.

 

Davies has a 1.91 WHIP in 7.1 innings in two rehab outings for CS and before that he was roughed up in single A outings in June. I hope he is DL'd or optioned until September. Then he can come up and pitch bullpen innings in games that aren't high leverage to prove he is back.

[YelichPosse]

Am I the only one hoping Davies doesn't start for us at all? Or is everybody resigned to the fact that the Brewers will start him when he says he's healthy?

 

One game could be the difference for playoffs and you trust Davies to start? Use Woodruff if we need a starter.

 

Davies has a 1.91 WHIP in 7.1 innings in two rehab outings for CS and before that he was roughed up in single A outings in June. I hope he is DL'd or optioned until September. Then he can come up and pitch bullpen innings in games that aren't high leverage to prove he is back.

 

SAME.

 

I do not trust Davies. I didn't trust him earlier when he was "back". Something has been wrong with him all year. Mechanics, injury, something of some nature , but he's not anywhere near close to somebody we'd want to trot out in a pennant race.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I trust Davies in the rotation more than Woodruff. I'm not going to let a few bad outings at Colorado Springs change that opinion. Although, I'm in favor of them being patient on bringing him back to the Bigs.

 

Davies 191 IP and 3.90 ERA from last year earned him his rotation spot, IMO. Oh, and I realize it's cool now to not care, but he DID win 17 games for the Brew Crew last year as well.

[Oxy]

I trust Davies in the rotation more than Woodruff. I'm not going to let a few bad outings at Colorado Springs change that opinion. Although, I'm in favor of them being patient on bringing him back to the Bigs.

 

Davies 191 IP and 3.90 ERA from last year earned him his rotation spot, IMO. Oh, and I realize it's cool now to not care, but he DID win 17 games for the Brew Crew last year as well.

 

That's great if it's April or if we are struggling to find serviceable arms, but we aren't. If he starts over one of the more regular guys who have more or less earned a spot in the rotation, I hope he is piggybacked with whoever he replaces and is put on an extremely short leash...i.e. if he gives up 2 ERs and has guys on base he gets pulled even if it's the 1st inning.

[Thurston Fluff]

79 pitches last night for the sky sox.

 

if davies gets one more start for the sky sox on 11 august and were to be activated to start, he'd either be pitching on three days' rest against the cubs, or on five days' rest against the cardinals (the club has two off days that week).

 

however, the brewers could look at davies two days after his 11 august rehab start and just decide to option him. if he was recalled on 1 september, davies would spend less than 20 days optioned this year and would not burn his second option.

 

the brewers would have an off day in each of the two august weeks following when davies could be eligible to make his first activated start.

 

assuming that the current starting rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra in order to put in davies. if guerra is optioned, he'd burn his final fourth option.

 

with september roster expansion looming, the brewers are in a very advantageous position for roster management.

 

Wouldn't that make him ineligible for the postseason? If the plan was to do that why not just leave him on the DL a little longer so he would be eligible for the postseason?

[Roderick]

79 pitches last night for the sky sox.

 

if davies gets one more start for the sky sox on 11 august and were to be activated to start, he'd either be pitching on three days' rest against the cubs, or on five days' rest against the cardinals (the club has two off days that week).

 

however, the brewers could look at davies two days after his 11 august rehab start and just decide to option him. if he was recalled on 1 september, davies would spend less than 20 days optioned this year and would not burn his second option.

 

the brewers would have an off day in each of the two august weeks following when davies could be eligible to make his first activated start.

 

assuming that the current starting rotation remains healthy, it's going to boil down to whether or not the brewers wish to option freddy peralta or junior guerra in order to put in davies. if guerra is optioned, he'd burn his final fourth option.

 

with september roster expansion looming, the brewers are in a very advantageous position for roster management.

 

Wouldn't that make him ineligible for the postseason? If the plan was to do that why not just leave him on the DL a little longer so he would be eligible for the postseason?

 

I really don't see a playoff roster spot as that realistic on August 8th. First of all, I don't see how he will be able to show enough to jump up into one of our top 4 starters, so he isn't on the roster to start games. So he will have to show that he can be comfortable coming out of the pen, plus better than the established pen guys to actually take a spot from them. With a 7 man pen in the playoffs, you are going go with: Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Knebel, Jennings, Burnes, "Up for Grabs" (starter?)

[KeithStone53151]

 

I really don't see a playoff roster spot as that realistic on August 8th. First of all, I don't see how he will be able to show enough to jump up into one of our top 4 starters, so he isn't on the roster to start games. So he will have to show that he can be comfortable coming out of the pen, plus better than the established pen guys to actually take a spot from them. With a 7 man pen in the playoffs, you are going go with: Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Knebel, Jennings, Burnes, "Up for Grabs" (starter?)

 

I know this is a bit nitpicky, but I suspect we still have an 8 man pen with 4 starters at most. It's also possible we have 3 starters and then 2 guys like Davies piggyback in the 4th game to some extent. With offdays, using most of the bullpen on a given day shouldn't be a major concern.

 

Even with that said, Davies certainly will have to show quite a bit to earn a spot on the postseason roster even in relief. And, even if he comes out healthy and pitching well, Nelson might also show up in September and would probably win a spot over Davies if he looks good. Playoff rotation will almost certainly include 3 of Anderson, Guerra, Chacin, Miley.

[Thurston Fluff]

 

I really don't see a playoff roster spot as that realistic on August 8th. First of all, I don't see how he will be able to show enough to jump up into one of our top 4 starters, so he isn't on the roster to start games. So he will have to show that he can be comfortable coming out of the pen, plus better than the established pen guys to actually take a spot from them. With a 7 man pen in the playoffs, you are going go with: Hader, Jeffress, Soria, Knebel, Jennings, Burnes, "Up for Grabs" (starter?)

 

I know this is a bit nitpicky, but I suspect we still have an 8 man pen with 4 starters at most. It's also possible we have 3 starters and then 2 guys like Davies piggyback in the 4th game to some extent. With offdays, using most of the bullpen on a given day shouldn't be a major concern.

 

Even with that said, Davies certainly will have to show quite a bit to earn a spot on the postseason roster even in relief. And, even if he comes out healthy and pitching well, Nelson might also show up in September and would probably win a spot over Davies if he looks good. Playoff rotation will almost certainly include 3 of Anderson, Guerra, Chacin, Miley.

 

Keep in mind I was only referring to optioning him down to AAA until September. It really has nothing to do with the likelihood of him earning a playoff roster spot. It has everything to do with not limiting our options when we don't have to. Even if it appears like he may not end up on the playoff roster doesn't mean you burn that bridge if you don't have to. If he does play well enough to earn a postseason spot but was optioned until September it means he can't be added. Why do that when he could be kept on the DL for an extra week or so of rehab and keep him eligible.

[LouisEly]

Anyone on the 40-man roster as of 8/31 is eligible for the post-season roster. They don't have to be on the 25-man roster.

[djoctagone]

if davies gets one more start for the sky sox on 11 august and were to be activated to start, he'd either be pitching on three days' rest against the cubs, or on five days' rest against the cardinals (the club has two off days that week).

 

however, the brewers could look at davies two days after his 11 august rehab start and just decide to option him. if he was recalled on 1 september, davies would spend less than 20 days optioned this year and would not burn his second option.

 

the brewers would have an off day in each of the two august weeks following when davies could be eligible to make his first activated start.

it'll be a start for biloxi, not colorado springs, on saturday. and it may not be his final minor league rehab (or potentially optioned) appearance.

[djoctagone]

at least one more rehab assignment start with the sky sox for davies. a minor league rehab assignment lasts up to 30 days, and the player earns major league pay and service time.

 

as mentioned above, the brewers could definitely activate davies after that start, option him to save on payroll and service time, and if recalling him 1 september when rosters can expand, davies would not have spent 20 days optioned, preserving his second option.

[markedman5]

Really have no choice but to send him down

 

[YelichPosse]

Really have no choice but to send him down

 

 

He really has not been sharp at all this year, with Milwaukee or in any rehab stint. I wonder if there is a more severe injury not diagnosed yet or if he just has "lost the feel" for his pitches. Add him to the list of head scratching regression players.

[Brewer Fever]

Really have no choice but to send him down

 

 

Agreed. He just hasn't shown anything to indicate he'd be effective in the majors right now.

[jerichoholicninja]

Was at the game today. He looked really bad. Guys in the bullpen (where I was sitting) seemed very annoyed with him. More or less said these aren't rehab starts for him, he's pitching for his job and failing big time.

[Boomer5]

They need to shut him down.