At what point is Darnell Coles on the hot seat?

[The stache]

Darnell Coles has been the Brewers hitting coach since the beginning of the 2015 season. These are isolated examples, of course, but when I see the Brewers offensive woes this season, and I look at the offensive performance of past Brewers who have suddenly started hitting much better than they did while in Milwaukee, I start asking why.

 

Consider these players:

 

Jean Segura had a decent 2013 season, hitting .294 with 20 doubles, 10 triples and 12 home runs. His first half was strong-at the All Star break, he was hitting .325 with 11 doubles, 8 triples and 11 home runs. Slashed .363/.487/.849. He fell off a cliff in the second half, and had a pretty horrid 2014.

 

Coles comes on board in 2015, and Segura does not improve. Now, I'm certainly not going to blame Coles for the precipitous drop off Segura experienced before he came on board. And, Segura was fighting through some serious personal issues towards the end of his time in Milwaukee. But could Coles have gotten more out of him? When he goes to Arizona, Jean Segura immediately becomes an MVP candidate (13th in the voting); he hits .319, slashing .368/.499/.867. Leads the NL with 203 hits, scores 102 runs, steals 33 bases, totals 41 doubles. His WAR is 5.5, more than the 4.9 he'd combined for the three prior seasons in Milwaukee. Since being traded to Seattle, Segura has continued to hit. He dropped off a bit in 2017, but still finished at .300. His dWAR has consistently ranged between a half and a full win. This year, Segura is hitting .340, on pace to score over 100 runs, put up about 40 doubles, and steal about 30 bases. In 62 games he has a 2.4 WAR.

 

Scooter Gennett in his first full season with Milwaukee in 2013 hits .289, with a .754 OPS. Coles comes on, and in two more seasons with the Brewers, Gennett hits .263 with a .706 OPS; his OPS + is 88, 12% below league average. He's a member of the Cincinnati Reds in 2017, and suddenly he blossoms into a complete offensive player, batting .295 with 27 HR and 97 RBI. He slashes .342/.531/.874. This season, Gennett leads the National League with a .340 AVG; in 64 games, he has 16 doubles, 12 home runs, and is slashing .376/.556/.932 with a 150 OPS +, or 50% above league average.

 

Orlando Arcia had a decent first full season at the plate in 2017-.277 AVG, 15 home runs, slashed .324/.407/.731. Anything north of a .700 OPS, when you consider Arcia's age, and his defensive abilities, would be sufficient, in my opinion, for 2018. But he's fallen off a cliff. He's struggling to stay above the Mendoza line at .207. His slash line is .244/.274/.519 for a 40 OPS +, meaning he's 60% below league average as a hitter.

 

Again, these are a few isolated players, so maybe I'm reading too much into it. But does it seem that we are having a really hard time developing young hitters? Look at Domingo Santana's inexplicable drop in power production this year.

 

2015: 121 ABs, 6 HR. 1 HR every 20.17 ABs

2016: 246 ABs, 11 HR. 1 HR every 22.36 ABs

2017: 525 ABs, 30 HR. 1 HR every 17.5 ABs

2018: 178 ABs, 3 HR. 1 every 59.3 ABs

 

Hernan Perez' average, on base, and slugging has dropped each of the past three years.

 

Maybe I'm grasping at straws, but I'm trying to understand how Darnell Coles has helped our franchise.

 

He's the hitting coach in Detroit for one season. 2014. The three years prior to Coles' arrival, Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title-.344 in 2011, .330 in 2012, .348 in 2013. His OPS those three seasons is 1.033, .999 and 1.078.

 

Coles arrives, and Cabrera has his worst season since 2008, hitting .313 and OPSing .895.

 

Coles leaves, and Cabrera again wins the batting title, hitting .338, slashing ..974.

 

Coincidence? Or, is it just possible that Darnell Coles, himself a career .245 hitter (and worth -1.4 WAR in 14 big league seasons), doesn't know what the hell he's doing? Is this the guy we want fine tuning the offense?

[pacopete4]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

[Bulldogboy]

To answer the question at hand, no he does not appear to know what he is doing. The Arcia situation is the latest example of someone who just doesn't appear to be listening to Coles. Look at what Chili Davis has done with Heyward. Batting instructors can make an impact on guys. The Brewers lack of plate discipline is something that goes to the heart of why he has to go. Perez hasn't gotten better. Santana is worse. Pina is not good. Who can we point to that has improved on his watch?? Villar after last year?? He should be gone. The other thing is baseball is the only sport where a guy who couldn't hit in his career is supposed to teach other guys who can't hit how. I know it's not the end all but would be nice if you had someone who at least had a track record of some success.

[Bulldogboy]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

It wouldn't hurt.

[The stache]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

 

Just out of curiosity, why would his playing career be irrelevant? He obviously had enough athletic ability to make it to the Major Leagues. But he was a below average Major League hitter. If he was unable to develop himself as a hitter, when he had every motivation in the world to do so (his financial future depended on his ability to play the game), what makes anybody think that he can develop others as hitters?

 

What has Darnell Coles shown that convinces anybody he's the answer? What raw talent has he developed into a top flight hitter?

[Bulldogboy]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

 

Just out of curiosity, why would his playing career be irrelevant? He obviously had enough athletic ability to make it to the Major Leagues. But he was a below average Major League hitter. If he was unable to develop himself as a hitter, when he had every motivation in the world to do so (his financial future depended on his ability to play the game), what makes anybody think that he can develop others as hitters?

 

What has Darnell Coles shown that convinces anybody he's the answer? What raw talent has he developed into a top flight hitter?

I agree. Imagine the bucks hiring a shooting coach who in his playing career was a 35% shooter?? He may be a nice guy and all but if he couldn't shoot well enough when he played why would players listen to him with their careers? I don't get it not being relevant.

[The stache]

Look at how great a hitter Tony Gwynn was. Won batting titles in 1984, 1987, 1988 and 1989, hitting .351, .370, .313 and .336. But he'd experienced a downturn in his ability because of physical ailments that reduced his speed. To that point in his career, he'd been effectively a pull hitter. But meeting Ted Williams (the first time being at the 1992 All Star Game) turned his career around. Williams had him adjust his hitting approach, using the entire field, and going for more power. After hitting .309, .317 and .317 in 1990, 1991 and 1992, Gwynn became the dominant hitter again, batting .358 in 1993, then winning four straight batting titles, hitting .394, .368, .353 and .372 (at age 37, no less!). His career OPS Shot up, too. From 1982 to 1992, he OPS'd .813 slashing .381 OBP/.433 SLG. Between 1993 and 1997, his slash line improved to .412 OBP/.508 SLG/.920 OPS. His OPS + raised from 128 between 1982 and 1992 to 146 between 1993 and 1997, all because a great hitter spoke with Williams. Williams was able to evaluate what Gwynn was doing, and saw what more he could be doing to increase his offensive performance.

 

That's what a hitting coach is supposed to do-identify what a hitter is doing wrong, coaching them on how to correct it. Now, could Williams have been a great hitting coach even if he'd never played? Possibly, yes. He was a student of the game. But the fact that this was Ted Williams talking, one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game, brought a certain amount of validity to what he was saying. I don't care how much you have studied the books, or watched the tapes. Getting in the batters box, and succeeding against Major League pitching, is the ultimate boon to any hitting instructor. Coles couldn't teach himself how to hit. What makes anybody think he can succeed in doing so with others?

[owbc]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

 

Just out of curiosity, why would his playing career be irrelevant? He obviously had enough athletic ability to make it to the Major Leagues. But he was a below average Major League hitter. If he was unable to develop himself as a hitter, when he had every motivation in the world to do so (his financial future depended on his ability to play the game), what makes anybody think that he can develop others as hitters?

 

What has Darnell Coles shown that convinces anybody he's the answer? What raw talent has he developed into a top flight hitter?

 

The Brewers are 6th in the NL in OPS so they seem to be doing just fine.

 

More generally, I just don't buy the anecdotal evidence. For every Gennett there was a Chris Carter. Arcia is younger than Brinson who has a .512 OPS with Miami.

 

I honestly don't know if Coles is doing a good job or not but since the offense is above average it's hard to make a solid case against him. Guys like Shaw and Aguilar have been great with the Brewers after never accomplishing much elsewhere.

[owbc]

I also don't buy the good player = good coach argument. Especially when our pitching coach never played professionally. And we previously had a hall of fame hitting coach who was terrible at coaching.

[The stache]

The Brewers are 6th in the NL in OPS so they seem to be doing just fine.

 

In 35 games against teams with a record below .500, we're hitting .268 as a team, slashing .343/.440/.783, scoring 5.09 runs per game.

In 30 games against teams with a record above .500, we're hitting .225 as a team, slashing .286/.376/.662, scoring 3.53 runs per game. If you take away the two games against Philly where we scored 24 runs, that's 82 runs scored in 28 games, or 2.93 runs per game.

 

If our goal is to beat up on poor teams, and get owned by good teams, then yes, we're "doing just fine". If our goal is to stop being the laughing stock of Major League Baseball, and, you know, eventually win a World Series, no, we are not doing just fine.

[owbc]

The Brewers are 6th in the NL in OPS so they seem to be doing just fine.

 

In 35 games against teams with a record below .500, we're hitting .268 as a team, slashing .343/.440/.783, scoring 5.09 runs per game.

In 30 games against teams with a record above .500, we're hitting .225 as a team, slashing .286/.376/.662, scoring 3.53 runs per game. If you take away the two games against Philly where we scored 24 runs, that's 82 runs scored in 28 games, or 2.93 runs per game.

 

If our goal is to beat up on poor teams, and get owned by good teams, then yes, we're "doing just fine". If our goal is to stop being the laughing stock of Major League Baseball, and, you know, eventually win a World Series, no, we are not doing just fine.

 

There are only 7 teams in MLB with winning records against teams over .500, so it's not like we're somehow doing something anomalously bad in that category. Those teams are over .500 for a reason. In our case we are actually doing quite well against teams over .500, except for the Cubs who we have to play a bunch and happen to have the best pitching in the NL. We are 13-8 against teams above .500 that aren't the Cubs. And opponents are .216/.345/.656 against the Cubs so it's not like we're the only ones.

[The stache]

I also don't buy the good player = good coach argument. Especially when our pitching coach never played professionally. And we previously had a hall of fame hitting coach who was terrible at coaching.

 

Show me where I said "good player = good coach"? If that were the case, every Major League team would simply go after the hitters with the highest lifetime batting averages, and ask them to be their hitting coach.

 

A great player does not necessarily make for a great coach. A poor player does not necessarily make for a poor coach. Ted Williams was a bad manager because he became frustrated working with players that didn't have the Hall of Fame talent he had. But there was no denying he knew how to hit, and the work he did with hitters made them infinitely better. Tony Gwynn was not the only guy to work with him.

 

There are no sure things, and my post never suggested otherwise. What I am asking, however, is what evidence there is that this hitting coach, Darnell Coles, is the answer. We know he wasn't a particularly good Major League hitter. So, then the question becomes who has he helped develop into a strong hitter at this level? Who can we point to? He couldn't develop himself. So who has he developed? What's the bright spot on Darnell Coles' resume?

 

And stating that Travis Shaw "never accomplished much elsewhere" is being a tad disingenuous. The Red Sox, while Shaw was in Boston, were pretty loaded with offensive talent-David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Andrew Benintendi. He wasn't going to get a lot of playing time because of the guys in front of him. Shaw slugged .487 over 226 ABs in 2015, with an .813 OPS. He showed he could hit Major League pitching before he ever got to Milwaukee.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

My understanding of MLB hitting coaches is that they really don't do anything with veteran players. The hitting coach isn't walking up to Miguel Cabrera and saying, "Hey, you've got to change this." That's just not how it works. If a slumping player approaches him it's another story but I highly, highly doubt he had anything to do with that. They provide some data about opposing pitchers but they are not really involved in the mechanics as a lot of fans seem to think. Everybody on an MLB roster knows how to swing a bat or they wouldn't be there. Except Arcia.

 

Players have to approach the subject for any kind of mechanical thing most of the time. Generally they are left to work through it because that's how most of them want to do it.

[adambr2]

Great post until you get into his playing career as if it has any relevance. SMH.

 

Just out of curiosity, why would his playing career be irrelevant? He obviously had enough athletic ability to make it to the Major Leagues. But he was a below average Major League hitter. If he was unable to develop himself as a hitter, when he had every motivation in the world to do so (his financial future depended on his ability to play the game), what makes anybody think that he can develop others as hitters?

 

What has Darnell Coles shown that convinces anybody he's the answer? What raw talent has he developed into a top flight hitter?

 

The Brewers are 6th in the NL in OPS so they seem to be doing just fine.

 

More generally, I just don't buy the anecdotal evidence. For every Gennett there was a Chris Carter. Arcia is younger than Brinson who has a .512 OPS with Miami.

 

I honestly don't know if Coles is doing a good job or not but since the offense is above average it's hard to make a solid case against him. Guys like Shaw and Aguilar have been great with the Brewers after never accomplishing much elsewhere.

 

The Brewers have been below average in runs scored every year of Coles' tenure, never higher than 20th.

 

Chris Carter is an odd example in Coles'' favor as he was basically the same exact one trick pony for the Brewers as he was for his entire career anywhere.

[FVBrewerFan]

Impossible to know if he is a great hitting coach or awful one. I don't know how you can evaluate pitching and hitting coaches since we know so little about what they do every day.

 

That said, I have no problem replacing him tomorrow. I think pro sports teams in general hang on to coaches too long. Discussion gets into does "so and so" deserve to be let go or not. Who cares, it's not about whether they deserve to be let go. Sometimes it just helps to shake things up and try something new.

[pacopete4]

So according to Stache, he gets no credit for guys having or had success but has to own all the guys that haven’t. Got it.

 

And I brought up the professional career because it means diddly. Just because his physical talents were not of a Tony Gwynn or Ted Williams, doesn’t mean that he cannot be a good coach. That’s such a silly way to judge a coach. Is he a good one? Not sure. Things could definitely be better and I hope they get there.

[jerichoholicninja]

This is like the 5th fire Coles thread this year and they all go the same way.

 

- Brewers offense sucks

- Coles sucked as a player

- Fire Coles

[xisxisxis]

I don't know how many times it's been mentioned on Brewer telecasts, but last night BA/Rock mentioned that the Brewers are trying to get the extra movement out of Arcia's swing and that is there focus.

 

That is the problem. A chinese friend shared an analogy with me that is perfect for this situation:

 

"trying to guard the rice pot, when the barn door is open".

 

Exactly. The Brewers should be worried first, foremost and only at this point, at his abysmal pitch recognition and strike zone recognition. It is irrelevant to be fine tuning of his swing because even if his swing is perfect he won't get good results swinging at crap. Just look at Addison Russell last night watching several pitches go by (and usually balls). No problem with pitch recognition there. What organization did he start with? The Athletics.... Of course, an organization that values plate discipline... Who did Russell remind me of? The few AB I saw of Nottingham... Now what organization did he start with? The problem is NOT Darnell Coles, the problem starts at the AZL rookie league and goes up to the Brewers, an organizational indifference to quality AB... I've griped about this repeatedly, and will continue til I'm banned, that the Brewers as an organization have to start making the case at every level that making an out is the worst possible outcome and a hitters approach will be a factor in promotion... Arcia would still be in Brevard County if the Brewers had any organizational emphasis on the importance of plate discipline...

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't know how many times it's been mentioned on Brewer telecasts, but last night BA/Rock mentioned that the Brewers are trying to get the extra movement out of Arcia's swing and that is there focus.

 

That is the problem. A chinese friend shared an analogy with me that is perfect for this situation:

 

"trying to guard the rice pot, when the barn door is open".

 

Exactly. The Brewers should be worried first, foremost and only at this point, at his abysmal pitch recognition and strike zone recognition. It is irrelevant to be fine tuning of his swing because even if his swing is perfect he won't get good results swinging at crap. Just look at Addison Russell last night watching several pitches go by (and usually balls). No problem with pitch recognition there. What organization did he start with? The Athletics.... Of course, an organization that values plate discipline... Who did Russell remind me of? The few AB I saw of Nottingham... Now what organization did he start with? The problem is NOT Darnell Coles, the problem starts at the AZL rookie league and goes up to the Brewers, an organizational indifference to quality AB... I've griped about this repeatedly, and will continue til I'm banned, that the Brewers as an organization have to start making the case at every level that making an out is the worst possible outcome and a hitters approach will be a factor in promotion... Arcia would still be in Brevard County if the Brewers had any organizational emphasis on the importance of plate discipline...

 

I won't disagree with an organizational focus on better approach at the plate but look at the current MLB team, how many hitters actually came through the Brewers system? I count 3: Arcia, Braun, and Cain.

[xisxisxis]

I think Stearns may have realized some of the issue with the current team with his acquisition of Yelich and signing Cain... Many of the Brewers hitter have flaws and that's what likely made them expendable in the first place or less attractive on the open market. We miss Thames bat not only for his OPS, but also for his plate discipline.

 

Where Stearns needs to continue is to place an organizational emphasis and put the right coaches in place that understand the importance of plate discipline.

 

Stearns has created the island of misfit toys as a team given what resources he's had... Moving forward in player development they need to incorporate a complete approach to player scouting/development instead of just accepting the defects as a necessity due to the hand that was dealt. Stearns is in charge of the game now and can make the rules...

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know how many times it's been mentioned on Brewer telecasts, but last night BA/Rock mentioned that the Brewers are trying to get the extra movement out of Arcia's swing and that is there focus.

 

That is the problem. A chinese friend shared an analogy with me that is perfect for this situation:

 

"trying to guard the rice pot, when the barn door is open".

 

Exactly. The Brewers should be worried first, foremost and only at this point, at his abysmal pitch recognition and strike zone recognition. It is irrelevant to be fine tuning of his swing because even if his swing is perfect he won't get good results swinging at crap. Just look at Addison Russell last night watching several pitches go by (and usually balls). No problem with pitch recognition there. What organization did he start with? The Athletics.... Of course, an organization that values plate discipline... Who did Russell remind me of? The few AB I saw of Nottingham... Now what organization did he start with? The problem is NOT Darnell Coles, the problem starts at the AZL rookie league and goes up to the Brewers, an organizational indifference to quality AB... I've ******* about this repeatedly, and will continue til I'm banned, that the Brewers as an organization have to start making the case at every level that making an out is the worst possible outcome and a hitters approach will be a factor in promotion... Arcia would still be in Brevard County if the Brewers had any organizational emphasis on the importance of plate discipline...

 

I agree with all that for the most part, but I think you're putting to much weight on random comments by BA and Rock. Coles could very well be working with Arcia on pitch selection.

 

Also, it's not as easy as "swing at strikes and don't swing at balls." That's why some players are better than others, otherwise everyone would hit .300 hitter. Again, I agree with you on the focus on pitch selection part, but it's not as easy as just telling a player to do it.

[xisxisxis]

Again, I agree with you on the focus on pitch selection part, but it's not as easy as just telling a player to do it.

 

Absolutely we agree. I don't think it's easy to change players. You can try, but it is a skill and not just a choice. It starts at the acquisition stage and moves from there (whether its drafting a player, signing a FA or trading for a player)... You start by emphasizing a players ability on pitch selection when acquiring them and help them to develop that talent... I cringe when there's a mention of a "hole in the players swing" in the draft writeups of Brewers selections as these players rarely ever make a significant contribution to the team. I think you can develop power and develop other aspects of a players hitting ability, but good hand eye coordination/plate discipline is either you have it or you don't.

[sveumrules]

Look at Domingo Santana's inexplicable drop in power production this year.

 

2015: 121 ABs, 6 HR. 1 HR every 20.17 ABs

2016: 246 ABs, 11 HR. 1 HR every 22.36 ABs

2017: 525 ABs, 30 HR. 1 HR every 17.5 ABs

2018: 178 ABs, 3 HR. 1 every 59.3 ABs

 

So was Coles a good hitting coach when Domingo raised his home run rate from 1 per 22.36 ABs in 2016 to 1 per 17.5 ABs in 2017 & has just started to suck this year?

 

You focus a lot of words on the perceived negative impact Coles has had, but never once mention Shaw or Aguilar, two hitters who have wildly exceeded expectations since their arrival.

 

Personally I think the role of a hitting coach is hugely overstated & that we as fans don't have nearly enough information at our disposal to make an informed decision either way.

 

If our goal is to stop being the laughing stock of Major League Baseball

 

The Milwaukee Brewers are not the laughing stock of Major League Baseball.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Literally one six-game winning streak where the offense scores 5+ per, and this conversation would stop. I love baseball.

 

I personally am glad they fell out of first now. I didn't expect them to hold it or end the year there, but I don't want that kind of days-in-first-place stat floating around. If they make the playoffs as any seed it's going to be absolute dogfight. I expected this. Just get to September with a chance. That's all I can ask.

[xisxisxis]

The Milwaukee Brewers are not the laughing stock of Major League Baseball.

 

I thought it was the Florida Marlins and we have plenty of buffer...

 

We are still on the leaderboard for longest stretch without a championship, so there's that...