Rank the division

[Bulldogboy]

I am curious as to how everyone would rank the division in terms of major league talent, minor league talent and front office talent. I for one feel like as it stands Brewers are #2 in all three areas. With Cubs being #1 in major league talent and front office and Cards #1 in minor league talent. I ask this because the Brewers rebuild while impressive is still lacking the kind of impact young talent that the Cubs and Astros used to win. Is this rebuild over?? Just starting?? Somewhere in between?? To me winning the division has to always be job one so your playoffs don't come down to one game. The other issue is the Brewers by virtue of improved play are already back drafting at the end of the round. Having only added the underwhelming Corey Ray as a top five talent looks like impact talent is not coming via the draft anytime soon. Teams like the Reds should be able to capitalize. Just wondering how people feel about where things stand right now and moving forward.

[rickh150]

Cubs

Cards

Brewers

Pirates

Reds

 

Most money to least, usually.

The Cards have a very solid farm, as well.

This doesn't mean we can't win the division this season.... it's possible.

[TigerUppercut]

I am curious as to how everyone would rank the division in terms of major league talent, minor league talent and front office talent. I for one feel like as it stands Brewers are #2 in all three areas. With Cubs being #1 in major league talent and front office and Cards #1 in minor league talent. I ask this because the Brewers rebuild while impressive is still lacking the kind of impact young talent that the Cubs and Astros used to win. Is this rebuild over?? Just starting?? Somewhere in between?? To me winning the division has to always be job one so your playoffs don't come down to one game. The other issue is the Brewers by virtue of improved play are already back drafting at the end of the round. Having only added the underwhelming Corey Ray as a top five talent looks like impact talent is not coming via the draft anytime soon. Teams like the Reds should be able to capitalize. Just wondering how people feel about where things stand right now and moving forward.

 

In quantity, yes. I'd definitely put Yellich and Hader in the category of impact young talent.

[KeithStone53151]

I have a hard time seeing a better front office than the Brewers, at least for longevity. The Cubs FO made a dreadful big $ signing, and look like they potentially made 2 more bad ones this past offseason...too early to tell though. Also their all-in approach to each season is going to lead to a massive rebuild very soon. I don't see Stearns sacrificing the future in such a manner.

 

The Cards front office was the best up until the last handful of years. Their mentality really seemed to switch away from internal development(which led to multiple WS rings) and toward free agency. I think we've all learned that spending big in free agency is generally a losing strategy.

 

The Pirates make some unorthodox decisions, but it's definitely tough to argue with the results...at least to this point in the season. It almost feels like they are a carbon copy of Oakland.

 

I'd rate the front offices Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds.

Major league talent would be Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, Reds.

Minor leagues I'm less familiar, but I can say with certainty that the Cubs are in last...and it isn't even remotely close. I'm relatively certain the Cubs current top prospect would not crack a single top 5 for any team in the division. It will be interesting to see how they plug holes this season, while talented they definitely could use some help at the deadline or other teams(like us) could pass them with big acquisitions.

[bill hAll Star]

The Cards front office was the best up until the last handful of years. Their mentality really seemed to switch away from internal development(which led to multiple WS rings) and toward free agency. I think we've all learned that spending big in free agency is generally a losing strategy.

 

A relatively bad Dexter Fowler deal and a 1-year Greg Holland contract has really made you think this?

 

Since I can remember, they've seemed to be a team that makes 1 splash either by bringing back a guy they traded for (Matt Holliday) or one signing that they think fills a longterm gap, even if an overpay (Jhonny Peralta, Dexter Fowler).

 

They did get a 1 year trial out of Kyle Lohse but they eventually brought him back at 4/$40 million. They've done stuff like this for a fairly long time.

[KeithStone53151]

The Cards front office was the best up until the last handful of years. Their mentality really seemed to switch away from internal development(which led to multiple WS rings) and toward free agency. I think we've all learned that spending big in free agency is generally a losing strategy.

 

A relatively bad Dexter Fowler deal and a 1-year Greg Holland contract has really made you think this?

 

Since I can remember, they've seemed to be a team that makes 1 splash either by bringing back a guy they traded for (Matt Holliday) or one signing that they think fills a longterm gap, even if an overpay (Jhonny Peralta, Dexter Fowler).

 

The two that stuck out to me were the Fowler and Peralta deals, which those 2 deals generally hadn't been the cardinal way of doing things. The holland deal is whatever, it's a 1 year deal. 5 years ago, this was probably the best front office in baseball. You could easily argue them ahead of the Pirates and possibly convince me of it, I just don't view them as an elite FO anymore.

[bill hAll Star]

The Cards front office was the best up until the last handful of years. Their mentality really seemed to switch away from internal development(which led to multiple WS rings) and toward free agency. I think we've all learned that spending big in free agency is generally a losing strategy.

 

A relatively bad Dexter Fowler deal and a 1-year Greg Holland contract has really made you think this?

 

Since I can remember, they've seemed to be a team that makes 1 splash either by bringing back a guy they traded for (Matt Holliday) or one signing that they think fills a longterm gap, even if an overpay (Jhonny Peralta, Dexter Fowler).

 

The two that stuck out to me were the Fowler and Peralta deals, which those 2 deals generally hadn't been the cardinal way of doing things. The holland deal is whatever, it's a 1 year deal. 5 years ago, this was probably the best front office in baseball. You could easily argue them ahead of the Pirates and possibly convince me of it, I just don't view them as an elite FO anymore.

 

The Brewers have made a few mistakes as well so I wouldn't really beat the Cardinals up over a bad contract or two, even if they are long-ish. Cain's deal could look terrible in 2 years even though I don't expect it to necessarily.

 

The only difference between the early/mid-2010s Cardinals and the mid/late 2010s Cardinals is that the earlier 2000s Cardinals had a prime, roided up, Hall of Fame player in Pujols. They've basically transferred that money that Pujols had later in his time there to Fowler or Peralta.

 

They still won 90-100 games most years up until the last 2 years but seem poised to at least tick back up towards 90 (and maybe more if Reyes ever gets healthy by next year). The Cards of old won divisions because their competition stunk if the Cubs were down and they won World Series by sheer volume of playoff appearances and luck when they got there.

[KeithStone53151]

The two that stuck out to me were the Fowler and Peralta deals, which those 2 deals generally hadn't been the cardinal way of doing things. The holland deal is whatever, it's a 1 year deal. 5 years ago, this was probably the best front office in baseball. You could easily argue them ahead of the Pirates and possibly convince me of it, I just don't view them as an elite FO anymore.

 

The Brewers have made a few mistakes as well so I wouldn't really beat the Cardinals up over a bad contract or two, even if they are long-ish. Cain's deal could look terrible in 2 years even though I don't expect it to necessarily.

 

The only difference between the early/mid-2010s Cardinals and the mid/late 2010s Cardinals is that the earlier 2000s Cardinals had a prime, roided up, Hall of Fame player in Pujols. They've basically transferred that money that Pujols had later in his time there to Fowler or Peralta.

 

They still won 90-100 games most years up until the last 2 years but seem poised to at least tick back up towards 90 (and maybe more if Reyes ever gets healthy by next year). The Cards of old won divisions because their competition stunk if the Cubs were down and they won World Series by sheer volume of playoff appearances and luck when they got there.

 

The reason they had to pay guys like Peralta and Fowler is their farm system stopped producing as well. For years and years, it seemed like anytime they needed...they could dip into AAA and pull out a stud. Carpenter, Craig, Miller, Rosenthal, etc. It was ridiculous how often a guy would get hurt and the next guy up would fire a 2 ERA or 900 OPS. It just hasn't been quite the same as years past. I don't feel like they are light years ahead of everyone else in player scouting/development anymore. And considering they aren't adding value by swindling teams left and right in trades like Stearns, I just don't view the FO as elite anymore.

[bill hAll Star]

The two that stuck out to me were the Fowler and Peralta deals, which those 2 deals generally hadn't been the cardinal way of doing things. The holland deal is whatever, it's a 1 year deal. 5 years ago, this was probably the best front office in baseball. You could easily argue them ahead of the Pirates and possibly convince me of it, I just don't view them as an elite FO anymore.

 

The Brewers have made a few mistakes as well so I wouldn't really beat the Cardinals up over a bad contract or two, even if they are long-ish. Cain's deal could look terrible in 2 years even though I don't expect it to necessarily.

 

The only difference between the early/mid-2010s Cardinals and the mid/late 2010s Cardinals is that the earlier 2000s Cardinals had a prime, roided up, Hall of Fame player in Pujols. They've basically transferred that money that Pujols had later in his time there to Fowler or Peralta.

 

They still won 90-100 games most years up until the last 2 years but seem poised to at least tick back up towards 90 (and maybe more if Reyes ever gets healthy by next year). The Cards of old won divisions because their competition stunk if the Cubs were down and they won World Series by sheer volume of playoff appearances and luck when they got there.

 

The reason they had to pay guys like Peralta and Fowler is their farm system stopped producing as well. For years and years, it seemed like anytime they needed...they could dip into AAA and pull out a stud. Carpenter, Craig, Miller, Rosenthal, etc. It was ridiculous how often a guy would get hurt and the next guy up would fire a 2 ERA or 900 OPS. It just hasn't been quite the same as years past. I don't feel like they are light years ahead of everyone else in player scouting/development anymore. And considering they aren't adding value by swindling teams left and right in trades like Stearns, I just don't view the FO as elite anymore.

 

They're still doing that. They went to DeJong after Aledmys Diaz and now Yairo Munoz isn't bad after DeJong got hurt.

 

Jose Martinez replaced Matt Adams who replaced a few others like the Allen Craig few year explosion dating back to Pujols.

 

Pham and probably O'Neill after Grichuck (traded at the right time), Piscotty (professional courtesy trade), etc. Bader isn't bad, either.

 

Reyes, Flaherty, Weaver are all good and they have brought out C-Mart a few years ago. Reyes is just hurt.

 

I think this is the same that they've always had, they're just missing out on having Albert Pujols right now.

 

I think they're still focused on draft and development, they just may be missing that slight oompf over the top like a Pujols and unearthing the next superstar every few years is a very hard thing to sustain anyways. Reyes might have been that to make their pitching staff absolutely filthy but they at least have the groundwork to have a decent team the next few years.

 

I actually was banging the drum before this season that I thought Stearns was going the Cardinals route - always have a stock of MLB-ready players. You can grab your Matt Holliday or Fowler or Lorenzo Cain when applicable to fill in the gaps.

 

This Brad Miller trade could work out as the Jedd Gyorko trade did for STL. More MLB depth at a position of need in return for an unnecessary and potentially overrated player (Choi/Jay).

[Bulldogboy]

In my mind stealing Yelich in his age 26 season and locked up for more ups the Brewers situation considerably. Had we not made this move things on the major league side would not look nearly as good. Stearns deserves a ton of credit for this. Brinson and his struggles along with the fate of Reyes for the Cards shows that prospects are overrated period. You just can't count on them. Young major league proven talent ages 23-28 is generally what wins championships going back to Yankee teams with Jeter. Royals, Cubs, Astros most recent. I hope Stearns continues to look for deals like this moving forward. This deal alone moves him up to number two. Cubs have it locked just for winning most recent but the Darvish deal could sink them. Also not signing Alex Cobb gets high marks.

[MrTPlush]

Cubs

 

 

Brewers

Cardinals

 

Pirates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reds

[bill hAll Star]

In my mind stealing Yelich in his age 26 season and locked up for more ups the Brewers situation considerably. Had we not made this move things on the major league side would not look nearly as good. Stearns deserves a ton of credit for this. Brinson and his struggles along with the fate of Reyes for the Cards shows that prospects are overrated period. You just can't count on them. Young major league proven talent ages 23-28 is generally what wins championships going back to Yankee teams with Jeter. Royals, Cubs, Astros most recent. I hope Stearns continues to look for deals like this moving forward. This deal alone moves him up to number two. Cubs have it locked just for winning most recent but the Darvish deal could sink them. Also not signing Alex Cobb gets high marks.

 

While the Cubs' run is likely constrained to a handful more years anyways with Kris Bryant and some of their other prime talent getting older and some of them becoming free agents and giving them the opportunity to leave or put another bad contract/starter on the board, I don't think "Darvish will sink them."

 

1. I think they've been planning to go over the luxury tax threshold all along in 2019 or later.

 

2. Their payroll situation still isn't bad. If you're looking at year-to-year payroll, they frontloaded Heyward, Lester, Darvish, and Zobrist.

 

Those frontloaded deals do still get averaged out in luxury tax calculation, but they should at least have some breathing room next year if they want to stay under the threshold and make a signing or two. If they want to go a little bit over they could go after a Machado or Harper if they wanted to.

 

On top of all of that, it's still early with Darvish. He still could get right this year or over the life of that contract.

[KeithStone53151]

They're still doing that. They went to DeJong after Aledmys Diaz and now Yairo Munoz isn't bad after DeJong got hurt.

 

Jose Martinez replaced Matt Adams who replaced a few others like the Allen Craig few year explosion dating back to Pujols.

 

Pham and probably O'Neill after Grichuck (traded at the right time), Piscotty (professional courtesy trade), etc. Bader isn't bad, either.

 

Reyes, Flaherty, Weaver are all good and they have brought out C-Mart a few years ago. Reyes is just hurt.

 

I think this is the same that they've always had, they're just missing out on having Albert Pujols right now.

 

I think they're still focused on draft and development, they just may be missing that slight oompf over the top like a Pujols and unearthing the next superstar every few years is a very hard thing to sustain anyways. Reyes might have been that to make their pitching staff absolutely filthy but they at least have the groundwork to have a decent team the next few years.

 

I actually was banging the drum before this season that I thought Stearns was going the Cardinals route - always have a stock of MLB-ready players. You can grab your Matt Holliday or Fowler or Lorenzo Cain when applicable to fill in the gaps.

 

This Brad Miller trade could work out as the Jedd Gyorko trade did for STL. More MLB depth at a position of need in return for an unnecessary and potentially overrated player (Choi/Jay).

 

It's hard to line up those guys you listed against guys like Craig, Freese, Jay, Motte, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, etc. Their hitters are more solid contributors versus the type of guy you fill in 3-5 in the order. Their starting pitching is still a bit crazy, but they also have a dreadful bullpen. Apparently nobody in AAA they can bring up to bolster.

 

I'm not trying to say they are bad by any stretch. I just don't view it as an elite front office anymore. Even if they are still one of the top teams at developing talent, they aren't light years ahead of everybody anymore and they are closer to average in FA signings and trades and other methods of talent acquisition.

[bill hAll Star]

They're still doing that. They went to DeJong after Aledmys Diaz and now Yairo Munoz isn't bad after DeJong got hurt.

 

Jose Martinez replaced Matt Adams who replaced a few others like the Allen Craig few year explosion dating back to Pujols.

 

Pham and probably O'Neill after Grichuck (traded at the right time), Piscotty (professional courtesy trade), etc. Bader isn't bad, either.

 

Reyes, Flaherty, Weaver are all good and they have brought out C-Mart a few years ago. Reyes is just hurt.

 

I think this is the same that they've always had, they're just missing out on having Albert Pujols right now.

 

I think they're still focused on draft and development, they just may be missing that slight oompf over the top like a Pujols and unearthing the next superstar every few years is a very hard thing to sustain anyways. Reyes might have been that to make their pitching staff absolutely filthy but they at least have the groundwork to have a decent team the next few years.

 

I actually was banging the drum before this season that I thought Stearns was going the Cardinals route - always have a stock of MLB-ready players. You can grab your Matt Holliday or Fowler or Lorenzo Cain when applicable to fill in the gaps.

 

This Brad Miller trade could work out as the Jedd Gyorko trade did for STL. More MLB depth at a position of need in return for an unnecessary and potentially overrated player (Choi/Jay).

 

It's hard to line up those guys you listed against guys like Craig, Freese, Jay, Motte, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, etc. Their hitters are more solid contributors versus the type of guy you fill in 3-5 in the order. Their starting pitching is still a bit crazy, but they also have a dreadful bullpen. Apparently nobody in AAA they can bring up to bolster.

 

I'm not trying to say they are bad by any stretch. I just don't view it as an elite front office anymore. Even if they are still one of the top teams at developing talent, they aren't light years ahead of everybody anymore and they are closer to average in FA signings and trades and other methods of talent acquisition.

 

I think you're a bit nostalgic on some of those names and it is clouding your judgment. These are the same types of good MLB players coming up, they're just missing that one big piece.

 

Honestly just compare some of the players you listed in that list of well-developed Cards players of 5 years ago and put them side-by-side with some of their current, good players.

 

Jose Martinez is pretty much a carbon copy of that prime 2 year window of good Allen Craig. Both terrible defensive players that could rake.

 

You're maybe overrating Freese a bit because of that playoff run. He only had one fully healthy, really good season and then a few partial decent seasons. I know that they technically traded for Gyorko, but he brings essentially the same impact and potentially a superior bat.

 

Jon Jay was no better than a Pham or a Piscotty in his good years. Someone like Bader is probably not far off, though he has less of a hit tool but probably more SB and a bit more power than Jay.

 

They've had some pitching injuries and underperformance in the bullpen, but their starting staff has been great. I don't see a huge difference between guys like Flaherty or a smart FA signing like Mikolas being any different than what Lance Lynn brought.

 

They've had flaws/warts like this bullpen before. Their 2 World Series titles in recent history came after limping into the playoffs and arguably shouldn't have even been in the playoffs both years.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Those other card farmhands were surrounded two HOF caliber players in their prime in pujols and molina, plus there were other great players on those teams (holiday, walker, to name a couple). The difference now is they lack premier talent to surround with the same caliber farmhands. And their pen isn't nearly as good as it has historically been.

[bill hAll Star]

Those other card farmhands were surrounded two HOF caliber players in their prime in pujols and molina, plus there were other great players on those teams (holiday, walker, to name a couple). The difference now is they lack premier talent to surround with the same caliber farmhands. And their pen isn't nearly as good as it has historically been.

 

Right, they're basically doing what they've always done but they're short on the MVP offensive player on their roster. Their bullpen may be worse than what it used to be, but to compensate, they may actually have a better spread-out collection of hitters (again, minus a Pujols) and a slightly higher end starting staff if healthy than they had in some of those years.

 

All of that adds up to a ~90 win team, which they are on pace for. Put Reyes in that rotation and they may be close to 95, though that is making an assumption as to how good he truly is in the majors at this point.

[Ennder]

Cubs won a world series so it is really hard to knock them but the post world series years have been a disaster for them. They went from having one of the best rosters in baseball plus one of the best farm systems to having no farm system at all and a number of very dubious looking contracts. The Cardinals seem to be treading water, they get a nice surprise every season but they never seem to be able to sustain it long term. They don't have the great farm system they used to either. This is not the Cardinals of 5 years ago, they missed the playoffs the past 2 seasons and I expect them to miss it for a 3rd season in a row.

 

The Pirates and Reds are both just done, they are bottom feeders. The Pirates beat up on some awful teams early but that is a bad team with a bad farm system.

 

I don't know where the Brewers rate in all that.

[Eye Black]

Cubs

 

 

Brewers

Cardinals

 

Pirates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reds

That is about where I would put things in terms of the major league teams this season (edit: initially missed the minor league part of the question, so I didn’t take that into account). If I was going to predict end of season records at this point in the season I would go with something like...

 

Cubs 99-63

Brewers 89-73

Cardinals 87-75

Pirates 77-85

Reds 61-101

[rickh150]

The Cards front office was the best up until the last handful of years. Their mentality really seemed to switch away from internal development(which led to multiple WS rings) and toward free agency. I think we've all learned that spending big in free agency is generally a losing strategy.

 

A relatively bad Dexter Fowler deal and a 1-year Greg Holland contract has really made you think this?

 

Since I can remember, they've seemed to be a team that makes 1 splash either by bringing back a guy they traded for (Matt Holliday) or one signing that they think fills a longterm gap, even if an overpay (Jhonny Peralta, Dexter Fowler).

 

They did get a 1 year trial out of Kyle Lohse but they eventually brought him back at 4/$40 million. They've done stuff like this for a fairly long time.

 

 

The Cubs spent roughly 500 million on FA in 2015/2016, and we know how that ended. The Yanks spending in FA kept getting them back to WS and the playoffs over the last 20 plus years.... spending big for SMALL markets is usually a bad strategy.

[bill hAll Star]

^^ Yup. The larger market teams are getting a bit smarter with some of the contracts, but there's nothing wrong with sitting on $50-100 million/year of dead money or fringe starters like all of the big markets are doing.

 

The Red Sox are paying David Price, Pablo Sandoval, and Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo $100 million dollars this year, so they're basically paying a #3 starter $100 million.

 

The Yankees have less bad money on the books right now, but they've had their share and will be signing more in the near future. Ellsbury and paying $5 million to McCann to play in Houston are the only terrible ones right now for the Yankees. I'd count CC, Walker, etc. but those guys are on a 1-year deal.

 

The Cubs as mentioned are paying about $100 million this year to Heyward, Darvish, Lester, Zobrist, and Smyly (potentially a good investment for next year). That's better than the Red Sox, but those guys aren't worth that.

 

The Dodgers under previous management built up the first wave of their run with a bunch of giant contracts that they're just finishing paying off.

 

Of course you've got teams like the Tigers that have sat on $70 million of declining trash and have been riding in the basement for a few years, but that's the price that a mid market paid for having a nice 5-7 year window to win it all and fell just short.

 

I think if I was a big market, I'd do it as Friedman has been doing it with the Dodgers...but you can absolutely win by overpaying vets as long as you're smart about it and also pay attention to your minors system.

[KeithStone53151]

^^ Yup. The larger market teams are getting a bit smarter with some of the contracts, but there's nothing wrong with sitting on $50-100 million/year of dead money or fringe starters like all of the big markets are doing.

 

The Red Sox are paying David Price, Pablo Sandoval, and Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo $100 million dollars this year, so they're basically paying a #3 starter $100 million.

 

The Yankees have less bad money on the books right now, but they've had their share and will be signing more in the near future. Ellsbury and paying $5 million to McCann to play in Houston are the only terrible ones right now for the Yankees. I'd count CC, Walker, etc. but those guys are on a 1-year deal.

 

The Cubs as mentioned are paying about $100 million this year to Heyward, Darvish, Lester, Zobrist, and Smyly (potentially a good investment for next year). That's better than the Red Sox, but those guys aren't worth that.

 

Of course you've got teams like the Tigers that have sat on $70 million of declining trash and have been riding in the basement for a few years, but that's the price that a mid market paid for having a nice 5-7 year window to win it all and fell just short.

 

The best way for the small markets to compete is to either be elite at developing/cycling talent and/or have enough big markets sign too many bad contracts. It definitely is unfortunate that the big markets are getting smarter with their contracts. I feel like 5 years ago some dinosaur GM's would have paid off Morrison, Moustakas, Cobb, etc on 4-6 year deals.

 

The Brewers definitely have a lot of talent in the system as a whole now, primarly through trades though. I think the Brewers are very good at identifying talent and finding value in both FA and the draft, but I'm less confident in our coaching/development. We also haven't had the luxury of drafting in the top 10 for 5 straight years...and then touted how great our talent development is when those top 10 picks all made the majors.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Cubs

 

 

Brewers

Cardinals

 

Pirates

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reds

 

This was my type of thinking. Well done.