Time to talk about future at SS?

[FVBrewerFan]

The discussion is about what they do long term at SS.

 

I don't know why people keep asking what we do long-term at SS... The Brewers just spent their #1 draft pick on the player they hope will one day replace Arcia or the incubent SS whomever they might be.

 

Short term: option Arcia to Biloxi (forget Colorado Springs). Platoon Saladino/Miller.

Near term: depends on what Arcia does the rest of the year, but if he can't straighten anything out they should look for a better term answer. I don't think Arcia has to be average to continue with him, but if he could get into the 20ish range of SS on offense his defense is worth that level of offense.

 

Maybe because there's a lot of options, and not one obvious solution. Not sure drafting a HS SS in the 1st round has much to do with that plan. I do agree he can even be lower than middle of the pack offensively at SS, basically a little better than what he was last year.

[pacopete4]

There are not a lot of options today though.

 

Saladino- hurt

Miller- can’t come up yet

Villar- they won’t do it

Perez- seems to be the same

Sogard- might as well stick with Arcia

 

 

Not seeing a ton of options.

[xisxisxis]

Unfortunately we have been stuck in the current situation since Saladino went down and they recalled Arcia. I expect the timeline for Saladino's return is likely close to Miller's time when he can be called up and they will dump Sogard at that time, option Arcia, activate Saladino and bring up Miller. So we are 9-10 days out to a short term answer...

[FVBrewerFan]

Unfortunately we have been stuck in the current situation since Saladino went down and they recalled Arcia. I expect the timeline for Saladino's return is likely close to Miller's time when he can be called up and they will dump Sogard at that time, option Arcia, activate Saladino and bring up Miller. So we are 9-10 days out to a short term answer...

 

You know, I just realized Sogard may just survive all this. Miller/Saladino up, Arcia/Santana down. Wouldn't it be both amazing and depressing if Sogard somehow survives all the roster moves again.

[tmwiese55]

But they need to add a SP next week sometime right. So you'll have to add 3 guys if no one gets hurt you'd think these guys are down: Sogard, Arcia and then shockingly Santana is in trouble.

[YelichPosse]

Does Miller have to be down 10 days from when we got him, or is it from when he was originally DFA'd by TB?

[FVBrewerFan]

But they need to add a SP next week sometime right. So you'll have to add 3 guys if no one gets hurt you'd think these guys are down: Sogard, Arcia and then shockingly Santana is in trouble.

 

They need a pitcher for a day. So they could do what they've done in the past. Send Williams down, bring Peralta/Houser up for a day. Then the next day, option Peralta/Houser, bring up Archer or whoever else. This is how they've been able to get by with a 12 man pitching staff for most of the year. (Plus, this is all assuming no injuries along the line.)

[tmwiese55]

After this though you're going to have like 30 games in 31 days, only one day off until the break. Shuffling is going to be tough in that stretch. Also, it's gonna be Davies you'd think here and then he'll just stick like a normal starter. I guess it's been silent on him but didn't seem overly serious or anything but if he's back you're into your normal 5 man rotation setup with him, Chase, Suter, Chacin, Guerra. Of course there's time for another injury somewhere to make all this talk moot.

[Outlander]

Does Miller have to be down 10 days from when we got him, or is it from when he was originally DFA'd by TB?

When he was optioned. He was not optioned by Tampa. They could have optioned and then DFA to start the clock sooner.

[adambr2]

But they need to add a SP next week sometime right. So you'll have to add 3 guys if no one gets hurt you'd think these guys are down: Sogard, Arcia and then shockingly Santana is in trouble.

 

They need a pitcher for a day. So they could do what they've done in the past. Send Williams down, bring Peralta/Houser up for a day. Then the next day, option Peralta/Houser, bring up Archer or whoever else. This is how they've been able to get by with a 12 man pitching staff for most of the year. (Plus, this is all assuming no injuries along the line.)

 

Archer isn't on the 40 so he isn't part of the revolving door. Also I see Williams as an important enough piece that they don't plan on optioning him down as part of any rotation at this point. They've had numerous opportunities to send Williams down this season and have always chosen other options and Williams keeps improving.

[idgafkurt]

Arcia has regressed to be arguably the worst hitter in the MLB not named Chris Davis or Kole Calhoun (or maybe Lewis Brinson). At nearly 1,000 plate appearances it seems the sample size is large enough to question if he'll ever be a MLB caliber hitter.

 

His advanced stats are horrifying:

 

- 13.4% Line Drive rate, 3rd lowest in baseball

- 59.8% Ground Ball rate, 4th most in baseball (Villar #2, in fact 5 Brewers rank in the top 27 here, major issue with this offense).

- 24.4% Soft Contact rate, 13th highest in baseball

- 24.4% Hard Contact rate as well, 7th weakest in baseball

- wRC+ 34, 3rd lowest in baseball

- .65 ISO, 3rd lowest in baseball

- .506 OPS, 3rd lowest in baseball

- -14.2 Offensive WAR (fangraphs), 4th worst in baseball

 

Toss in a 4.5% BB rate and 23.3% K rate and you have yourselves a hitter that is clearly over-matched in the batters box.

[MadScientist]

How many options does he have left? If they can find a stopgap this year and maybe next, it's possible he can work out is options in a less critical location and be good enough to deserve a MLB roster spot.

 

Unfortunately the Brewers options at the moment are

1) Sogard who makes the current version of Arcia look like a good hitter

2) Miller who's defensive prowess leads me to think he will be Yuni 2.0

3) Guys with only one functional leg.

[JimH5]

Not sure why everyone is using different ways to say the same thing, Arcia is lost at the plate. No kidding. The discussion is about what they do long term at SS.

 

Nobody knows what to do long term because Arcia hasn't shown any growth or development to merit play in the short term.

 

Will he be good in 2021? Maybe. But we shouldn't have to sit through 3 years of dreck to find out.

 

Maybe he'll be Andrelton Simmons or JJ Hardy by then. Maybe he'll be Rey Ordonez.

 

It is interesting that two of the worst hitters in MLB have been the most recent top prospects of this system.

 

It might be that the Brewers are bad at developing minor league hitters.

[sveumrules]

The Brewers might be bad at developing hitters, though I'd imagine there has been some turnover since Alcides was coming up through the system.

 

Another possibility is that neither Escobar nor Arcia were ever all that great of hitters to begin with & their lofty BA rankings (Alcides #12 in 2010, Arcia #8 in 2016) were more about their defensive certainty mixed with some hope for offensive potential.

 

Alcides minor league batting...

 

2006 A+: 386 PA 70 wRC+

2007 A+: 283 PA 102 wRC+

2007 AA: 245 PA 78 wRC+

2008 AA: 597 PA 114 wRC+

2009 AAA: 487 PA 102 wRC+

 

Orlando minor league batting...

 

2013 A: 486 PA 84 wRC+

2014 A+: 546 PA 113 wRC+

2015 AA: 552 PA 126 wRC+

2016 AAA: 440 PA 91 wRC+

 

I don't think it's necessarily surprising that two lithe shortstops with those minor league numbers have ended up as around 70 wRC+ MLB hitters.

 

For full context there have been 622 batters from 2008 (when Alcides debuted) through now to record at least 900 PA (Orlando currently has 940). The Escobar/Arcia shared wRC+ of 71 ranks tied for 588th on the list.

[JimH5]

Great research, thanks!

 

A 126+ wRC+ at AA from a 20 year old SS is a pretty exciting. So I think the praise was justified.

 

But he didn't make any real improvement in Colorado Springs, and with this 250 game stretch to start his MLB career, that praiseworthy season looks more like a mirage.

[sveumrules]

I always though a realistic comparison for what Arcia is capable of would be something like Francisco Lindor's 2016 season before he added power to his game, 301/358/435.

 

Obviously we're a long ways from there now, but I do believe the skills are still there if he can iron out his stance/approach.

 

Interestingly, Arcia's lone good month of his career at the plate (June 2017) came in at 326/370/478 so he has already shown he can do it, albeit briefly.

[MrTPlush]

Yuni B had a 0.5 dWAR in 2011 according to BR. Even Fangraphs rated him near average.

 

How I don’t know, but I actually don’t remember him being all that bad. Errors were high, but as one knows that isn’t everything.

 

Anyway back on topic.

[sveumrules]

Yuni's dWAR on BRef is positive because it includes his SS positional adjustment (+8) & fielding (-3) totals. Same thing at FG though the math is slightly different as they had him at +6.6 positional & -6.7 fielding.

 

After posting by far the worst fielding marks (-55 DRS, -39 UZR) at SS from 2008-10, his 2011 ratings are actually pretty pedestrian.

[Ennder]

At no point in his career was there ever reason to think that Alcides could hit. Arcia at least showed some signs at some point. Yuni B is one of the worst full time players to ever play the game.

[clancyphile]

Great research, thanks!

 

A 126+ wRC+ at AA from a 20 year old SS is a pretty exciting. So I think the praise was justified.

 

But he didn't make any real improvement in Colorado Springs, and with this 250 game stretch to start his MLB career, that praiseworthy season looks more like a mirage.

 

Going from an .800-ish OPS in Biloxi to a .720-ish in Colorado Springs was a huge red flag for me.

 

Especially when Villar was raking at SS.

 

I'd have used Arcia in a package. Still would like to, if there's a tea that'll overpay for web gem defensive plays.

[YelichPosse]

Would any of you guys be opposed to sending him for Machado in a package ? Being a rental and all.. curious what everyone thinks.

 

I personally would because I don’t believe he’s the long term solution offensively. And defensively he’s good but does make some of the simple errors that will get you to hit your head on a wall.

[MrTPlush]

If the Orioles want to make him the centerpiece, sure. Doubt they would do that so pretty irrelevant. There is legit risk holding onto Arcia. This could be our last chance to extract decent value in a trade. We are a competitive team going into our “window”. If Arcia can’t figure something out in the next calendar year he probably will be shipped off or essentially replaced. We can’t wait three years to get a productive Arcia again.

 

I’d rather give him a lengthy minor league stint and see if he figures it out. If Miller shines or we get someone at the deadline I would be tempted to just start fresh next year unless he hits his way back in a big way after his demotion.

 

Just realized the thread this is in...holy off topic.

[adambr2]

Would any of you guys be opposed to sending him for Machado in a package ? Being a rental and all.. curious what everyone thinks.

 

I personally would because I don’t believe he’s the long term solution offensively. And defensively he’s good but does make some of the simple errors that will get you to hit your head on a wall.

 

If we were in 1st in July I wouldn't have a problem sending them Arcia for Machado at all. You could have Dubon take over at SS next spring or you still have Miller if you want to wait on that. Dubon is a very competent defender in his own right at SS and you're certainly not going to lose anything offensively from Arcia to....well. anyone.

[adambr2]

If the Orioles want to make him the centerpiece, sure. Doubt they would do that so pretty irrelevant. There is legit risk holding onto Arcia. This could be our last chance to extract decent value in a trade. We are a competitive team going into our “window”. If Arcia can’t figure something out in the next calendar year he probably will be shipped off or essentially replaced. We can’t wait three years to get a productive Arcia again.

 

There's something to be said for the bolded. You're basically playing the stock market here. Hold too long and they might end up worth nothing. Or they might increase their value tenfold. Usually, we've timed it right. Brinson looks like a good sell right now. Segura, not so much but for getting Chase Anderson and a big trade piece in the Yelich deal, I won't complain too much.

 

Some think Arcia just will never be a good hitter, some just think with how young he is, maybe we won't see that until he's 26, 27.

 

My question is -- does it matter? I don't care when Arcia peaks -- I care how much the Milwaukee Brewers will be able to benefit from it and how much of a hit we'll have to take until then. If Arcia is going to be a .600 OPS player until his age 26 season, then jump to .700 at 26 and. 750 at 27 (just for an example), that is not a very cost-efficient wait for us. Arcia will be in his later arbitration years by then and nearing free agency. And we have no idea how competitive we'll be then compared to now.

 

So there's certainly a rational argument to be made that getting a bird in the hand in something productive for Arcia now is better than waiting several years in the hopes of him improving. And frankly I have no idea how much his trade value has already suffered from this season. It can't have helped.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Arcia is the centerpiece of a Machado deal, then Manny's value has totally tanked or the Orioles are the worst run franchise in the history of everything.