How agressive will Stearns be at the deadline?

[SRB]

In his latest piece in the Athletic, Rosenthal says Brewers could use a starter, reliever, second basemen or catcher --- the proceeded to mull the idea of a Whit Merrfield/Kelvin Herrera package from the Royals.

 

That'd probably be a hefty to price pay, but the idea is there.

 

I mean it would be nice to have Herrera in the bullpen, but why would we use trade capital for a high-end RP when we have one of the best bullpens in baseball and lots of needs elsewhere??

[SRB]

I don’t really see the point of adding yet another mid to back end starter. That’s all this team really has. I’d rather see them go big or go with what they have, rotation wise.

 

Exactly ... they aren't going to add another crap #3-4 starter like Ross or Straily because it's redundant. If they needed that, they'd just hand the ball to Woodruff or Burnes or any other of 4-5 guys they have in the system.

 

No, if they make a move for a starting pitcher, it's going to be someone big. And it's going to cost a lot.

 

I wouldn't call Ross "crap" and in fact he's a perfect target for us. He has the upside of a legit #2 but he should be affordable given that his recent injury history is still deflating his value. Do people not remember how good Ross was from 2013-15 before his injuries? He's looking like the same pitcher again, with strong peripherals all over.

 

I bet Ross will be significantly cheaper than a name brand guy like Cole Hamels, despite being a better pitcher at this point.

 

Nelson-Ross could be a legitimate playoff 1-2, and if Chase Anderson starts pitching well again, we'd really be cooking with gas then.

[pacopete4]

Guerra overlooked again.

[SRB]

Guerra overlooked again.

 

Not overlooking Guerra at all, but if Anderson starts pitching like 2017 Anderson again, the way he looked tonight against the Cubs, I think Guerra is the #4 in that rotation (which would be great news for us)

[reillymcshane]

I don't see Stearns overpaying for any player or position - but will instead keep his eyes and ears open, look for depth and upgrades, but only make moves if he really sees the value.

 

Again, it all comes down to value. If the opportunity is there - then he will look to make a move. In the end, that means nothing could happen - or a lot could happen. It just depends on the market.

 

As a general rule, I think that quality starters and relievers will be hard to find since they usually fetch a high return at the deadline. Position players are usually a little different. Sometimes - but not always - a very good player can be had for a low price (example: JD Martinez last year).

 

So, Stearns will watch the market, and make moves if the value is there.

[paul253]

Last year the Brewers had a pretty decent shot at making the playoffs, up 5 1/2 games at the break. Stearns more or less stood pat and the Brewers eventually fell out of contention. This year the team is even better but still has a few glaring weaknesses. If they stand pat again and miss the playoffs again I kind of wonder if Stearns is being too passive. I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

I hope he makes a serious run at either Degrom or Syndergaard because I think that would help us out the most.

[adambr2]

Last year the Brewers had a pretty decent shot at making the playoffs, up 5 1/2 games at the break. Stearns more or less stood pat and the Brewers eventually fell out of contention. This year the team is even better but still has a few glaring weaknesses. If they stand pat again and miss the playoffs again I kind of wonder if Stearns is being too passive. I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

I hope he makes a serious run at either Degrom or Syndergaard because I think that would help us out the most.

 

I still think you are vastly underestimating the kind of market that these guys would initiate if made available. We can't just throw Hiura, Burnes, and Peralta at the Mets and call it a day. The Braves could dangle Acuna out there. The Nationals could dangle Robles or Soto out there. The Phillies could center something around Sanchez. These are elite prospects, and maybe we could get lucky with those all being NL East teams and maybe the Mets would be hesitant to deal in the division, but there are other teams that could beat our offer, and the only way to one up them would be to offer up Hader which just isn't helpful.

 

I don't think the Mets are serious about dealing Syndergaard at all. Degrom, maybe, but even that they don't need to do it unless someone meets their price. They'll need to be blown away. It'll take a Quintana package, not a Sonny Gray package. So since we don't have an Eloy Jimenez quality prospect, you're probably talking Hiura + Burnes + Peralta + Ray to get it done. It's a farm gutting move. It would have to be.

 

I don't think Stearns was too passive at the deadline. He dealt for Walker, he dealt for Swarzak, and these were helpful moves. He set his price point for Quintana and Sonny Gray, and didn't panic when the bidding got too high. And thank goodness he didn't, because I'd like this roster a whole lot less with Sonny Gray on it and Christian Yelich off it.

[paul253]

I still think you are vastly underestimating the kind of market that these guys would initiate if made available

 

I’m not. I’m just saying I hope we make a move for them if they’re available as opposed to settling for “depth”. If we don’t have enough we don’t have enough. Doesn’t mean we can’t try.

 

So since we don't have an Eloy Jimenez quality prospect, you're probably talking Hiura + Burnes + Peralta + Ray to get it done. It's a farm gutting move. It would have to be

 

That’s probably a move I’d make. The outfield is set for years to come with so Ray is definitely expendable. Hiura would hurt but even moving Burnes and Peralta wouldn’t kill us as we would still have some decent prospects in Ortiz, Zach Brown, Woodruff, etc. Degrom gives you something you haven’t since Zack Greinke.

[Mudville9]

Don't forget we have a lot of "depth pieces" in the minors. I'm not saying they will get us one of the Mets SP, but we might be able to get Hamels or JA Happ for 3 or 4 depth pieces. We are probably going to lose some to the Rule 5 draft next year anyway. Might as well get something for them.

 

Something like Phillips, Supak, Derby, etc.

[SRB]

Why would the Mets trade one of their two reliable SP, both of whom are under control for 3+ years? They're not going into a rebuild.

[bill hAll Star]

Last year the Brewers had a pretty decent shot at making the playoffs, up 5 1/2 games at the break. Stearns more or less stood pat and the Brewers eventually fell out of contention. This year the team is even better but still has a few glaring weaknesses. If they stand pat again and miss the playoffs again I kind of wonder if Stearns is being too passive. I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

I hope he makes a serious run at either Degrom or Syndergaard because I think that would help us out the most.

 

There was a pretty legitimate chance that we'd have missed the playoffs even after making a bigger move last year.

 

Get ready for minimal splash again this year.

 

Weaknesses:

Elite starting pitching - this is probably going to cost way too much. I'd take Tyson Ross, but it's basically a modest upgrade over someone like Davies for 5-6 innings.

2B - It's barely a weakness. I'm not even sure Lowrie is an upgrade.

SS - I doubt anything is gonna be available.

C - Maybe Realmuto but I think it's gonna cost too much again.

 

I understand the idea of never making a move and saying "we need to save up for the next 3-5 years" and then never making the playoffs...but I think there is way way higher of a chance than you think that we empty out our farm system, miss the playoffs last year and this year, and are back at square 1 if you're running things.

[brooks_quichenick]

Saw an Angels scout at the game today, so [sarcasm]I think it's safe to say that Stearns is going to be ultra-aggressive and trade Braun for Mike Trout +[/sarcasm]

[paul253]

The more I think about it the more I seriously wonder if Hiura would be an option later on in the season. You could shift Villar to SS. I realize the defense would suffer mightily but Arcia has been absolutely horrible at the plate this year. Even if Hiura only hits .250-.260ish it’s still be a pretty significant upgrade offensively.

[wildcat2237]

The more I think about it the more I seriously wonder if Hiura would be an option later on in the season. You could shift Villar to SS. I realize the defense would suffer mightily but Arcia has been absolutely horrible at the plate this year. Even if Hiura only hits .250-.260ish it’s still be a pretty significant upgrade offensively.

 

Hiura is currently annihilating AA pitching to the tune of a .400 OBP. So IMHO, yes if he continues this the next 6-7 weeks. And what is scary about these numbers is that he is not even walking much. If he can up the walk rate just a tad his stats would be video game esque.

[JosephC]

In his latest piece in the Athletic, Rosenthal says Brewers could use a starter, reliever, second basemen or catcher --- the proceeded to mull the idea of a Whit Merrfield/Kelvin Herrera package from the Royals.

 

That'd probably be a hefty to price pay, but the idea is there.

 

I mean it would be nice to have Herrera in the bullpen, but why would we use trade capital for a high-end RP when we have one of the best bullpens in baseball and lots of needs elsewhere??

 

If the reliever was another high-end lefty I would be all for it. Having another big-time lefty in the pen would give the Brewers the flexibility to use Hader as an "opener" later in the season. And if they could pick up a quality lefty with control past this season, then it makes it that much easier to move Hader into the rotation starting next season if that's something they are thinking about.

 

If I'm in Stearns chair and call the Padres about Ross, and they insist on Hiura, then I throw out Ross and Hand and see where that leads. If Knebel gets on track, having him plus Hader plus Jeffress plus Hand would just be flat out wicked. Ross would likely just serve as a rental, but Hand would be under team control through 2021.

[ebmackenzie]

I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

 

At some point the 40 man roster is going to play a role. Who DS sees as sustaining the run and who he sees as movable as either depth or smaller parts of a bigger trade for more talent.

 

We need to start talking about the 40 if you are going to speculate on aggression and trades.

[brewmann04]

I agree they will have a few issues and DS did move three big prospects already. I like Hiura and I think we need to keep at least two arms.

[dacrew101]

I’m a big time hiura believer and obviously 2nd base is a need. Other then him anyone else is fair game along with arcia and Zach Davies.

[wildcat2237]

I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

 

At some point the 40 man roster is going to play a role. Who DS sees as sustaining the run and who he sees as movable as either depth or smaller parts of a bigger trade for more talent.

 

We need to start talking about the 40 if you are going to speculate on aggression and trades.

 

I don't see it as a major issue.

 

There are five players on that list that I would put on the "need to keep list."

 

1. Bubba Derby - pitching well at CS.

 

2. Nate Griep - Another solid season, likely a future bullpen arm.

 

3. Luis Ortiz - Star has faded but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think he could become a future bullpen arm.

 

4. Cody Ponce - Bad in 2018 but there is potential here.

 

5. Kodi Medieros - Ugly numbers as a pro but still only 22. 2018 has been solid so far.

 

In looking at the current 40 man here are guys I would jettison in a heartbeat:

 

1. Alec Asher

2. Boone Logan

3. Wade Miley

4. Aaron Wilkerson

5. Steven Vogt

6. Nick Franklin

7. Hernan Perez

8. Eric Sogard

9. Keon Broxton (I think he could be traded for a lottery ticket at a minimum).

 

And I'm certain Stearns will trade a least 2 or 3 guys this summer to improve the club.

[adambr2]

I understand the need not to empty out the system completely but at some point you need to fill your holes with talented players and not just depth.

 

 

At some point the 40 man roster is going to play a role. Who DS sees as sustaining the run and who he sees as movable as either depth or smaller parts of a bigger trade for more talent.

 

We need to start talking about the 40 if you are going to speculate on aggression and trades.

 

I don't see it as a major issue.

 

There are five players on that list that I would put on the "need to keep list."

 

1. Bubba Derby - pitching well at CS.

 

2. Nate Griep - Another solid season, likely a future bullpen arm.

 

3. Luis Ortiz - Star has faded but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think he could become a future bullpen arm.

 

4. Cody Ponce - Bad in 2018 but there is potential here.

 

5. Kodi Medieros - Ugly numbers as a pro but still only 22. 2018 has been solid so far.

 

In looking at the current 40 man here are guys I would jettison in a heartbeat:

 

1. Alec Asher

2. Boone Logan

3. Wade Miley

4. Aaron Wilkerson

5. Steven Vogt

6. Nick Franklin

7. Hernan Perez

8. Eric Sogard

9. Keon Broxton (I think he could be traded for a lottery ticket at a minimum).

 

And I'm certain Stearns will trade a least 2 or 3 guys this summer to improve the club.

 

You are leaving an awful lot of talent unprotected. Gatewood is the biggest name probably, but also Stokes, Perrin, Torres-Costa, Bickford, Kirby and Lara. Some of these names you'll just have to leave unprotected if you don't trade them and see what happens, you can't protect everyone. But it's hard not to see them not wanting to definitely find room for Gatewood, probably Stokes and one of Perrin or Torres-Costa.

 

And Vogt and Miley are not on the 40 man roster.

[ebmackenzie]

I agree...a lot of meat on the bone with just those 5 being protected. Easier to send two and receive an single A arm who won't have to be 40'd for a couple of years or add value by sending away our own lottery tickets.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

You are leaving an awful lot of talent unprotected. Gatewood is the biggest name probably, but also Stokes, Perrin, Torres-Costa, Bickford, Kirby and Lara. Some of these names you'll just have to leave unprotected if you don't trade them and see what happens, you can't protect everyone. But it's hard not to see them not wanting to definitely find room for Gatewood, probably Stokes and one of Perrin or Torres-Costa.

 

And Vogt and Miley are not on the 40 man roster.

 

If Bickford continues to get his velocity back up, I'd have to think he's a lock to be protected. He's the exact type of guy teams covet in the Rule 5 - a guy that has stuff and huge potential that can be hidden in the pen for a year.

 

Also, Gatewood is either going to be protected or traded this year. You don't give away a guy with that kind of talent for nothing. I could also see a team taking a chance on Stokes or Kirby and back-of-the-roster guys. Stokes because he is young and has shown flashes, and Kirby because he's a mystery due to injury.

[JosephC]

I don't see it as a major issue.

 

There are five players on that list that I would put on the "need to keep list."

 

1. Bubba Derby - pitching well at CS.

 

2. Nate Griep - Another solid season, likely a future bullpen arm.

 

3. Luis Ortiz - Star has faded but I'm not ready to give up on him yet. I think he could become a future bullpen arm.

 

4. Cody Ponce - Bad in 2018 but there is potential here.

 

5. Kodi Medieros - Ugly numbers as a pro but still only 22. 2018 has been solid so far.

 

In looking at the current 40 man here are guys I would jettison in a heartbeat:

 

1. Alec Asher

2. Boone Logan

3. Wade Miley

4. Aaron Wilkerson

5. Steven Vogt

6. Nick Franklin

7. Hernan Perez

8. Eric Sogard

9. Keon Broxton (I think he could be traded for a lottery ticket at a minimum).

 

And I'm certain Stearns will trade a least 2 or 3 guys this summer to improve the club.

 

I pretty much agree.

 

My 40 man after the season made up of current Brewers (+1) would be:

Pitchers (17) = Matt Albers, Chase Anderson, Jacob Barnes, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Marcos Diplan, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Jeremy Jeffress, Dan Jennings, Corey Knebel, Jimmy Nelson, Freddy Peralta, Brett Suter, Taylor Williams, Brandon Woodruff

Catchers (3) = Jacob Nottingham, Manny Pina, CATCHER (*)

Infielders (7) = Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia, Mauricio Dubon, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar

Outfielders (6) = Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Lorenzo Cain, Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich

 

That means the following are off the 40-man:

Pitchers (4) = Boone Logan, Jorge Lopez, Wade Miley, Aaron Wilkerson

Catcher (2) = Erik Kratz, Stephen Vogt

Infielders (4) = Nick Franklin, Brad Miller (**), Tyler Saladino, Eric Sogard

 

(*) - Can't just depend on two catchers on the 40-man roster to start off the season. So I adding in CATCHER to count that spot for whomever the third catcher would be.

(**) - Miller could play his way into the mix, but to offer him a contract in arbitration next season would guarantee him an absolute minimum of 3.6 million but he would likely wind up with a contract in the 5.5 to 5.75 million dollar range which is a pretty big number. I think it's pretty likely he will not be offered arbitration.

 

As far as the Brewers adding veteran players by free agency or trade, that would likely push other players off the 25 man roster (Perez being an example) which would push that player off the 40 man roster. So I don't think any of those additions impacts the final numbers I have above. I've added the third catcher which is necessary, but any notable adds just subtracts off players like Hernan Perez, Keon Broxton, etc.

 

So I have 33 on the 40 man which give me seven openings. I'd add the following:

Pitcher = Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, Cody Ponce, Trey Supak, Quintin Torres-Costa

Infielder = Jake Gatewood

Outfielder = Troy Stokes Jr

 

These guys are not added for the following reasons:

-Bubba Derby = Sounds like his secondary stuff is still pretty fringy so he projects as a MLB reliever. Not an overpowering fastball. If the reports I've read are accurate, it sounds like Derby's best outcome is an average middle reliever.

 

-Jon Perrin = I personally like Perrin and think he could be a sleeper as a solid #4 starter or a plus-plus starter/reliever swingman. But as time goes on it seems the Brewers see him more and more as a reliever. If that's the case, he probably gets used in a Jorge Lopez type role and I don't think I'd use a 40-man spot on him this off-season.

 

-Nate Griep = I've seen some reports questioning his stuff and wondering how it will play at the major league level. Not so sure of the legitimacy of that, or how much of that comes from a mediocre showing in the Arizona Fall League last year. He has piled up 75 saves in the Brewer's system, but it doesn't sound like he projects as a closer at the MLB level and is likely middle reliever quality.

 

-Phil Bickford = Considering his recent history, would you draft him and dedicate a 25-man roster spot to him for a good chunk of the regular season? Miguel Diaz was the type of non-ready, flyer pick but he didn't have nearly the off-the-field baggage that Bickford does. He has the talent to be a Rule 5 pick, but I have no problem with gambling and leaving him off the 40. He probably needs a couple more years of development time and if another team wants to clog up a spot on their 40 man roster for the next couple of seasons then they are welcome to do so. Would love to retain him, and if he has a good 2019 then he might be worth a 40 man spot.

 

So there is only one problem that I see. This currently blocks Corbin Burnes (not Rule 5 eligible until December 2019) from a 40 man spot. So if I want to add him to the 40 man roster some time this year, then I have one spot I need to clear. One spot, only one spot.

 

So I agree with Wildcat, I just don't think it's a huge issue.

[Fear The Chorizo]

So there is only one problem that I see. This currently blocks Corbin Burnes (not Rule 5 eligible until December 2019) from a 40 man spot. So if I want to add him to the 40 man roster some time this year, then I have one spot I need to clear. One spot, only one spot.

 

You'll also need to make room in early 2019 for Hiura, who barring injury will be needing to get added to the 40 man since he'll be in Milwaukee playing 2nd base.

 

However, there are going to be moves made at the deadline and early offseason that clarify the 40 man roster and continue to give Stearns the flexibility he likes. One of the reasons I had no issues whatsoever with the package of players he sent to Miami for Yelich was that he replaced Brinson's 5 years of control that undoubtedly will include MLB growing pains with roughly the same amount of control for Yelich through his prime years, and the two other top prospects (Diaz, Harrison) were going to be part of this year's 40 man crunch as well.

[wildcat2237]

 

You'll also need to make room in early 2019 for Hiura, who barring injury will be needing to get added to the 40 man since he'll be in Milwaukee playing 2nd base.

 

 

I certainly hope you are right and Hiura is up in late 2018 or early 2019. However, that all assumes that he continues to own AA pitching.

 

Moreover, Hiura is still considered a butcher in the field. So although his bat might be ready, they may need to figure something out with the glove.