Syndergaard and deGrom

[paul253]

1. I would be happy that I didn't go all-in on this season if that's what ended up happening

 

But it’s not “all-in” for this season. Depending on which pitcher you get youd have them for either two or three more years.

 

Plus, you don’t get the benefit of hindsight. You have no idea if you’ll make the playoffs or in what capacity you do if you get him. You can’t say “well if we make the playoffs then I’d do it but if don’t then it wouldn’t”. Doesn’t work like that.

 

 

Not to go too far off-base, but you make an excellent point that having 3 or 4 shut-down arms in the pen that can go multiple innings is the best way to win an all-in playoff game

 

The best way to win a one game playoff is to score more runs than the other team. Doesn’t matter how you do it. I’d prefer to have a dominant starter who gives me 7 solid innings as opposed to using up my two or three best bullpen arms in the first 5 innings because if the game is still tight in the 8th or 9th, or goes into extra innings, who are you going to rely on? Jacob Barnes? Taylor Williams? No thanks. I’m much rather take my chances with Degrom/Syndergaard for 7 followed by Hader, Jeffrey’s and Knebel.

[Fear The Chorizo]

More often than not, teams in the wild card mix have to play out the entire regular season to make sure they get in - not really much opportunity to line up the rotation and bullpen to have the ideal arms available for a 1 game playoff that happens two days after the regular season ends.

 

Odds are pretty decent any Ace-caliber pitcher the Brewers acquire will have pitched on one of the final regular season games, meaning they'd be worthless in the 1 game playoff. If the Brewers are going to go after a starter, I'd rather it be due to them viewing the NL Central division title as theirs for the taking and not doing so with all eyes on trying to ensure a quality start for the play in game (only to then be at a huge division series pitching disadvantage).

[Madhawk23]

There's simply NO way I'm giving up Hiura, Burnes, Peralta and Domingo for deGrom. And I say that fully realizing how valuable a guy like deGrom would be for this team (not just this year, but for the two years following as well). But, that is just way too much to give up for a SP that is only going to contribute every 5th day towards helping your team win. Peralta is already dominating MLB lineups (Yes, a small sample size I know), Burnes I think just needs to get out of Col Springs and get some confidence going again before he slips into our rotation here soon, and Hiura is a potential all-star caliber 2B in the very near future. Oh, and we're just going to throw in a guy like Santana that hit 30 bombs at the MLB level last year for S&%$'s and giggles?

 

Like Adam said above, I'll take my chances with getting Nelson back in the rotation next year to go along with Freddy P and Hiura as our starting 2B. I'm not opposed to trading Burnes if the price is right - but no way I'm moving Burnes, Peralta and Hiura in any deal for a starting pitcher.

[paul253]

I'd rather it be due to them viewing the NL Central division title as theirs for the taking and not doing so with all eyes on trying to ensure a quality start for the play in game (only to then be at a huge division series pitching disadvantage

 

Agreed. But I don’t even know how you’d acquire a pitcher for a one game playoff without also acquiring them to help you win the division. Clearly whoever you get you get for the regular season. The playoffs would be the added bonus. All we are saying is that all things being equal, if you have the chance the start a Degrom or a Syndergaard over a Chacin or anAnderson, which is a very strong possibility, it’d be a huge upgrade. The CC Sabitha deal showed just how important one pitcher can be. Without him we are not in the playoffs.

[bill hAll Star]

1. I would be happy that I didn't go all-in on this season if that's what ended up happening

 

But it’s not “all-in” for this season. Depending on which pitcher you get youd have them for either two or three more years.

 

Plus, you don’t get the benefit of hindsight. You have no idea if you’ll make the playoffs or in what capacity you do if you get him. You can’t say “well if we make the playoffs then I’d do it but if don’t then it wouldn’t”. Doesn’t work like that.

 

 

Not to go too far off-base, but you make an excellent point that having 3 or 4 shut-down arms in the pen that can go multiple innings is the best way to win an all-in playoff game

 

The best way to win a one game playoff is to score more runs than the other team. Doesn’t matter how you do it. I’d prefer to have a dominant starter who gives me 7 solid innings as opposed to using up my two or three best bullpen arms in the first 5 innings because if the game is still tight in the 8th or 9th, or goes into extra innings, who are you going to rely on? Jacob Barnes? Taylor Williams? No thanks. I’m much rather take my chances with Degrom/Syndergaard for 7 followed by Hader, Jeffrey’s and Knebel.

 

Yes you'd have deGrom in the future, but now you're adding $15 million in payroll all while still needing a 2B, maybe SS, pitching depth, etc.

 

Also, say Davies, Guerra, and Yelich all have long-term injuries next year and deGrom is out a month. If you hadn't traded for deGrom, you have Yelich, Hiura, Aguilar, Shaw, Burnes, Peralta, etc. for 2020 and beyond to fall back on. After emptying the farm for deGrom...you might have one more shot in 2020 (maybe) before having a Marlins caliber roster.

 

Obviously you could re-trade deGrom at that point and I'm not saying this is an exact science or nobody would ever go "all-in." I'd probably live with trading for deGrom as a fan. I'm just saying it can go very south as well.

[SeaBass]

Jacob deGrom is an absolute game changer if we acquire him, especially in the postseason. Chacin or deGrom? Who do you prefer in a one game playoff? How about when he pitches multiple games in the NLDS, NLCS, or World Series? He went 3-0 in the NLDS and NLCS in 2015.

 

I could easily see him being our Justin Verlander and going down in Brewers lore. That being said I’m glad it isn’t my decision to trade a bunch of near MLB ready players for an Ace.

 

I will say I wouldn’t package both Burnes and Peralta...not a big deal as I am sure they would take a different package. I also wouldn’t do it as a stand-alone move. I’d want to see the offense improved up the middle somehow (not really much out there to improve C). The article mentions Cabrera, that might not be a bad option.

Yes, this. The reason the Brewers would trade for deGrom is not only because he's a stud that helps get you to the playoffs, it's because in the playoffs a patchwork rotation of #3 starters goes from being a manageable situation to a giant weakness. Aces are for winning playoff games.

 

This is the part that resonates with me from that ESPN article:

It isn't likely that they (the Brewers) can ever sign an ace, since they'll lose every bidding war. They have to trade for one.

Unlike some, giving up Hiura isn't the part that gets stuck in my throat. I'd give him up in a second for deGrom. Giving up Burnes and Peralta makes it harder to swallow. Gotta keep one of those two guys, right now I lean keeping Peralta simply because of what he's shown in his 4 starts with the big club. So Hiura, Burnes, Santana if that's what they want and instead of Peralta give them another pitching piece and I'm 100% in.

 

If Hiura becomes the 2nd coming of Jose Altuve, well, we can cry in our beer about that down the road I guess. It's my belief offense is easier to acquire than pitching and I'm not convinced Hiura is a great fit for the NL game. I legitimately worry about his defense. Don't get me wrong I'm drooling over the possibilities of when Hiura's ready to join the Brewers, I just have enough doubts where he's not untouchable to me.

 

At the same time, if this is still a package Stearns feels is too much and would rather pass, I'm ok with that too. I'm for the trade but if the consolation prize is we keep our prospects that's not something I'll be mad about. Stearns has a better feel for what types of moves might or might not work out better for this team. If we hear no big rumors connecting deGrom to the Brewers there's a reason.

[NievesNoNO]

I would trade almost any combination of minor league prospects to acquire DeGrom. I also agree it doesn't get done without Hiura.

 

Hiura+Santana/Phillips+Woodruff+Burnes??

 

I question how "really" available he is. He's a legitimate ace. I know there's a lot of ball to be played yet and the Brewers have disappointed many of us in the past with their 2nd half performances but this is a team with a real chance now. I wasn't in the boat to push last season but based on the off-season, their current record (best in the NL) and the structure of their MLB roster, I'm ready to "go for it"

 

I'd be willing to assume that an inconsistent offense has cost us more games than a guy who won't participate in 80% of games is going to be able to help with. If you're willing to 'go for it' with DeGrom, better find a way to fix that lineup, especially since Hiura won't be here and we have no other offensive help coming up soon in the system.

 

You might be right. I'd guess that inconsistent starts from our pitchers have also cost us as many games as the inconsistent offense. I guess I'm really comfortable with the position players, when fully healthy. I love the Miller deal and think he can at least be a consistent OBP to move the lower half of the lineup. I don't think there's really an upgrade to be had at catcher given how good Pina is defensively. Obviously if there was an opportunity to upgrade this season at SS, that would help, but I'm good just running Arcia out there in the 8 hole every day. Let the glove play.

 

Last season I wasn't convinced on making the playoffs. I feel good about this team getting in this year. There's no power house in the NL. It's not like they have to contend with the Astros, Yankees, or Sox to get to the WS. The Cubs, to me are the only clearly better offensive team in the NL.

[Yount19]

Would Syndergaard cost more than deGrom? Thor is on the books for 3 years compared to 2 for deGrom after this season? I know Thor is hurt but coming back but prior to this year I thought he was considered to be a higher rated pitcher.

[paul253]

yes you'd have deGrom in the future, but now you're adding $15 million in payroll all while still needing a 2B, maybe SS, pitching depth, etc

 

Villar has been good enough to handle second base again. And no way are why giving up on Arcia yet. Doubon is coming back sometime next year and he can play both positions if need be. You also have Perez and Miller as options. Plenty to work with. .

 

As far as pitching depth goes even if you trade two prospects you’ll have Degrom, Davies, Guerra, Chacin, Suter, whichever prospect you hang onto, Anderson and Nelson. That’s 8 legitimate starting pitchers. Depth is fine.

 

We have plenty of depth. What we don’t have are a ton of top end talent like Degrom or Syndergaard.

 

also, say Davies, Guerra, and Yelich all have long-term injuries next year and deGrom is out a month

 

That’s a lot of if’s. I don’t see how you can decide whether or not to make a trade based on the possibility that theee of your main guys go down with long term injuries. If that happens you deal with it.

[superfly]

I'd give Hiura, Domingo, Burnes or Peralta + for Thor, not deGrom.

[rickh150]

Don't like the train of thought that suggests our pitching is fine. We need pitchers that can dominate lineups, good lineups down the stretch and in the playoffs. We need a #1 that will go deep into games regularly that will save our pen. deGrom is one of those guys.

[Lathund]

When looking at these potential trades there's not just the prospect cost to take into account, but also the monetary cost, the opportunity cost and also where the biggest needs are. Whether the $30m or so over 2019 and 2020 for DeGrom will be affordable or not depends on how high Mark A is willing to go, which we don't really know. It may, or may not, be a problem. Then there's the prospect cost. I wouldn't include Hiura. Not because he's a certain slam dunk or certain all-star or anything like that, but because his value to the team is so incredibly high if he even works out reasonably well. Middle infielder who can hit for average and with some Power (Albeit mostly of the double variety) and play anywhere even Close to average defense, controlled for 6-7 seasons? There's not really a lot of similar talent in the sysem. I'd hate to lose Peralta and Burnes as well; giving up MLB ready, or near to ready, starting pitching is generally something I don't like doing. You've taken most of the risk involved with developing pitching, and even getting a #4 starter for 6-7 years of team control is extremely valuable. Especially when they can be even more than that. But, considering we'd be getting one hell of a pitcher in return, and have other good pitching prospect in the high minors (Ortiz, Woodruff, Medeiros, Brown etc) I could live with a deal headlined by Peralta and Burnes but without Hiura. Even though I wouldn't like it.

 

But that amount of young, cheap, controllable pitching is also another reason to not make a move like this now. Especially if the intention is for this competitive "window" to be a long one. Nothing is guaranteed with player development, but I'd like to see what becomes of our starting pitching. I'd love to have what the Cardinals have with their seemingly endless supply of home grown rotation arms. There's risk to that approach. You can end up with a bunch of busts and wish you'd "sold high" and end up "wasting" this "window". But to me the high risk high reward approach is the only way to build a WS quality team. I'm willing to live with that risk.

 

As unorthodox as this pitching staff is, and as much as many of us seemingly wait for it to crash, it has performed really well for the better part of 2 years now. Joint lowest ERA- in the NL, joint 4th in MLB. Improving the position player side is more of a priority IMO, and Keston Hiura is one potential way to do that. I'd prefer a big trade at the deadline to be an improvement at SS/2B/C. Might not even have to be a big one; Swarzak and Walker were very valuable contributors last year, and didn't have to give up much for them. There could even be some very good rentals or salary dumps available for packages that won't cost any of the top prospects. Look at what JD Martinez fetched for instance. Nor would any such acquisition mean "giving up on" Arcia as some have suggested. He has minor League options remaining.

 

Jacob deGrom is a fantastic pitcher. But 2½ seasons of him would cost 18 seasons of Hiura, Burnes, Peralta (Or if just 2 of them, then 6 years of some other pretty good prospect) and something like $30m. deGrom will make this team better in 2018 than even the most optimistic best case scenario for Hiura, Burnes and Peralta. Quite possibly in 2019 as well. But trading for the best available rental in 2018 while keeping those three and the $30m is a better move overall.

[Chicago Here]

There's simply NO way I'm giving up Hiura, Burnes, Peralta and Domingo for deGrom. And I say that fully realizing how valuable a guy like deGrom would be for this team (not just this year, but for the two years following as well). But, that is just way too much to give up for a SP that is only going to contribute every 5th day towards helping your team win. Peralta is already dominating MLB lineups (Yes, a small sample size I know), Burnes I think just needs to get out of Col Springs and get some confidence going again before he slips into our rotation here soon, and Hiura is a potential all-star caliber 2B in the very near future. Oh, and we're just going to throw in a guy like Santana that hit 30 bombs at the MLB level last year for S&%$'s and giggles?

 

Like Adam said above, I'll take my chances with getting Nelson back in the rotation next year to go along with Freddy P and Hiura as our starting 2B. I'm not opposed to trading Burnes if the price is right - but no way I'm moving Burnes, Peralta and Hiura in any deal for a starting pitcher.

Hura is projected as a 2019 everyday stud and a 2021 All Star.

No way i give him up and many others.

Keep Hura, allow Peralta to develop, and we go to ws in 2019. This isnt our year, but we have enuf talent to make the playoffs. Let it ride. Maybe we get lucky. I think we stand down, use an extended window then make a deal in late August after we have more information or if there is a major injury. We only need an ace if Peralta falls apart.

[MrTPlush]

#1 How do we know it’s not our year? We currently lead the entire NL and the postseason is largely based on luck of getting hot.

 

#2 Peralta is going to fall apart because at this rate to September is about as long as he can pitch. Down the stretch and into the postseason he is unlikely to be available unless we throw him into the bullpen for a month plus now.

[KeithStone53151]

#1 How do we know it’s not our year? We currently lead the entire NL and the postseason is largely based on luck of getting hot.

 

#2 Peralta is going to fall apart because at this rate to September is about as long as he can pitch. Down the stretch and into the postseason he is unlikely to be available unless we throw him into the bullpen for a month plus now.

 

I don't think it's as simple as an innings limit with Peralta. He's on pace for 200 innings when he only threw 120 last year. I don't think something as simple as shifting him to the pen and letting him pitch into the playoffs is a good idea. You need to protect such a young arm, I think he needs to be shutdown sometime in September no matter how many innings(unless he has a non-arm injury and misses a month or something).

[KeithStone53151]

One thing to keep in mind in this discussion. With every start Peralta makes, his value is going up. He's looked very good at the MLB level in every start but 1. It becomes more and more possible with every start that Peralta is good enough to be the headliner of a Degrom deal should we opt to target Degrom.

[paul253]

Keep Hura, allow Peralta to develop, and we go to ws in 2019. This isnt our year, but we have enuf talent to make the playoffs. Let it ride. Maybe we get lucky

 

This isn’t our year but we add a rookie 2nd basemen who currently has 98 plate appearances above A ball and let a pitcher with #3 upside develop for a year and all of sudden we’re in the World Series?

 

And this year we don’t need to get lucky. We have the best record in the league with an offense that is vastly underperforming. What we need is our hitters to get theirs heads out of their you know what’s and start hitting.

 

And I’d love to have an ace that you can feel confident in every time he steps on the mounds.

[MrTPlush]

This isn’t our year?

 

I’m really jealous of the posters who have crystal balls. Could you just tell me what year is ours? I want to get season tickets.

[brewmann04]

I again think if it an addition for the rotation it going be some one under the radar which no one has discussed.

[KeithStone53151]

This isn’t our year?

 

I’m really jealous of the posters who have crystal balls. Could you just tell me what year is ours? I want to get season tickets.

 

I generally tend to agree things are lining up fairly well for the Brewers. Many of our pitchers are overperforming, we have a lot of hitters at peak age right now...and we have serious minor league ammunition to plug holes. That doesn't mean we should go nuts and sell half the farm for a real shot at winning the hole thing, but we can make some prudent moves that improve our chances while not mortgaging the future.

 

To say it isn't our year is really silly, I'd like to know what the team needs to look like for those posters to consider it "our year".

[adambr2]

I would guess people are speaking more on odds, that over 162 games the Cubs are probably still a better team than us.

 

Yes, we could get hot in the playoffs and win a World Series this year, it is not impossible. It's also possible we could do that with who we have now and Keston Hiura hits .400 in the playoffs. Just because it *could* be our year isn't necessarily a good argument for 'we need to go get DeGrom.'

[jvrocksaz]

Found and read this... Gives me serious hesitation with making a deal for Thor.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23516648/real-not-why-expect-more-noah-syndergaard

[paul253]

I’d still take him. He’d still be an improvement over what we have. That being said, it’d be hard to include Hiura in a deal for him. If we could work out a deal involving Burnes/Peralta, Woodruff, Ray and a younger guy I’d still do it.

[Roderick]

#1 How do we know it’s not our year? We currently lead the entire NL and the postseason is largely based on luck of getting hot.

 

I am inferring from your post that you are for a trade.

 

But, if you look at what you wrote - the postseason being based on luck, should actually mean that you want to make the postseason as many times as possible, and not necessarily put all the eggs in the basket for any one year. You give yourselves more chances at the playoffs by keeping the years of cheap control of Hiura, Peralta.....

 

Personally, I am torn on a big trade. I am leaning to trading for a Jody Mercer on the cheap and adding a bullpen arm if Albers doesn't come back to be Albers.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

#1 How do we know it’s not our year? We currently lead the entire NL and the postseason is largely based on luck of getting hot.

 

I am inferring from your post that you are for a trade.

 

But, if you look at what you wrote - the postseason being based on luck, should actually mean that you want to make the postseason as many times as possible, and not necessarily put all the eggs in the basket for any one year. You give yourselves more chances at the playoffs by keeping the years of cheap control of Hiura, Peralta.....

 

Personally, I am torn on a big trade. I am leaning to trading for a Jody Mercer on the cheap and adding a bullpen arm if Albers doesn't come back to be Albers.

You're not, you're setting yourself up for 3 pennet races. Plus what if hiura doesn't live up to the hype? Never know what you'll get out of prospects, look at Brinson