Syndergaard and deGrom

[paul253]

I just don’t see the Mets accepting an offer without Hiura. And given that Hiura is our only elite position prospect I’d have a hard time giving him up. And that means something given how big an advocate I am about obtaining a TOR rotation pitcher. It’s just a shame that the organization has dropped the ball with so many recent early round picks. Coulter. Clark. Roache. To a lesser extent Gatewood and Ray. We need to hit on our first rounders.

 

That being said, if we can get New York to accept a package built around Burnes and Peralta we have to do it don’t we?

[mattyo]

I just don’t see the Mets accepting an offer without Hiura. And given that Hiura is our only elite position prospect I’d have a hard time giving him up. And that means something given how big an advocate I am about obtaining a TOR rotation pitcher. It’s just a shame that the organization has dropped the ball with so many recent early round picks. Coulter. Clark. Roache. To a lesser extent Gatewood and Ray. We need to hit on our first rounders.

 

That being said, if we can get New York to accept a package built around Burnes and Peralta we have to do it don’t we?

 

 

Without a doubt, yes. If you can get Syndegaard through 2021 without giving up Hiura you make it happen.

[Jenkins5]

While we are talking about absurdity, I could not believe reading this the amount of debate over Hader. Hader is on historic path this season, is arguably our most valuable player, & there appears to be little doubt he will be an All-Star. Just because he isn’t starting doesn’t make him any less valuable. What competitive team is going to give away there most valuable asset who happens to be very cheap & controlled for long time while they are making a run at the division?! I love Thor & DeGrom and unload prospects for them but not giving away a huge asset that we need now for them.

 

How many RPs can come in during a 1 run game in 6th & give you 3 brilliant innings to get it to your closer or enter 8th & give you two inning saves with unhittable stuff? How many of you have any doubt about outcome when he comes into a game? He does that 2-4 times a week for us. We are going to throw that out the window along with other top prospects. For a guy who helps us every 5th day?

 

Moral of story, competitive teams can’t sell their best MLB asset like that because it doesn’t make you much better. We added a really strong piece to the staff but we lost a really strong piece in our bullpen. That is why you trade prospects. If they aren’t happy with our prospects.... move on. We aren’t giving up major pieces that help us win now.

[Humans Need Water]

As others have pointed out:

 

1) The Mets have absolutely no incentive to deal either of those two unless they get a desperation overpay. The Yankees could show up offering Torres straight up and there's a good chance the Mets wouldn't bite.

 

2) It's the trade deadline. Desperation overpays are part of the process, not an aberration from a previous year.

 

Put yourself in the opposite shoes, say you're Stearns, you're having a rough year after a good start, and you have two aces, both with sub 3 career ERAs. Your older one is controlled still through 2020, and is having an insanely good Cy Young type season with an otherworldly 1.55 ERA as a starter.

 

How excited are you going to be to deal him for a package that includes a total of zero top 50 prospects, 1 top 100, and a fringe top 100?

 

Goodness, we did better than that for a year and a half of a catcher. I agree with a lot of what you say, generally. But Burnes + Peralta + Phillips puts you nowhere close to getting DeGrom.

Burnes is ranked 58/74/80, Phillips 80/81 and Peralta, while unranked heading into 2018, has already surpassed both and is a Top 50 prospect regardless if it's in print yet or not. So that would make (3) Top 100 and *all* are MLB ready, thus limiting risk compared to low level players, with 6yrs cheap control. Not every GM is the same - some might prefer a package of MLB ready players such as (2) legit mid-rotation starters, (1) starting CF/RF with cannon and 20/20 potential, (1) pen arm VS (1) elite prospect, (1) TOR potential arm if he can hit the strike zone enough, (1) 4th OF, (1) flyer pen arm who won't amount to anything (the first was Burnes/Peralta/Phillips/Houser and the second was the Sale trade).

 

I didn't realize we got Brinson, Ortiz, Cordell solely for Lucroy. It's almost as if there was a successful reliever (setup/closer) with 3yrs cheap control included in that package.

 

At the time of the trade, Sale was turning 28 with 3/38 left on contract. He was coming off 5 straight AS, 4 straight Top 5 CY voting, 3 of previous 4yrs at 208+IP and all of that facing the DH in the AL and he's a LHP to boot. Present day, DeGrom has less control with 2+/25M?, is 1yr older (happy 30th today) than Sale while winning ROY, 1 AS, 0 Top 5 CY voting, 192+IP once. Thor is much younger but didn't win ROY, 1 AS, 0 Top 5 CY and has thrown over 151 innings once. DeGrom and Thor are no doubt super talented and DeGrom is having an outstanding year that he'll never repeat but their body of work isn't close to Sale therefore the return shouldn't FAR exceed the Sale trade (Hiura/Burnes/Peralta/Ray) rather, at most, should match it.

 

The Sale equivalent is Hiura, Peralta, Grisham, Houser. Grisham compares well to Basabe. Houser murders the Sale 4th piece and is MLB ready right now and there's a ton of guys we could swap Houser out for. The MLB.com article put Gatewood at the same value as Peralta and Ray - simply astounding - that's how you know that article proposal is garbage. Ray isn't even at the same value as Peralta right now either.

 

No doubt people will think what I just listed above is absurd so I'll suggest those people go do a side by side statistical comparison of Moncada/Hiura, Kopech/Peralta, Basabe/Grisham, Diaz/pick a guy with a pulse because Diaz sucks. *Production* trumps ceilings/stuff (ie Kopech has better "stuff" therefore a higher ceiling than Peralta but Peralta has extension that makes his fastball play up several MPH combined with having multiple good secondary offerings whereas Kopech has one secondary offering). Go compare the production of these dudes. It's insane how similar it's been for the two main pieces, especially since Moncada was Top 3 and Kopech was Top 30 (now Top 10). Hiura/Peralta are right there with them. This is also why a deal can be done without Hiura - we would still have Top 100 pieces like Burnes, Phillips, Woodruff + others in Ortiz, Erceg, Ray, Dubon, Nottingham etc to not only replace Hiura but then bump up one of the back end pieces to round it out and offset the front end (similar to what I mentioned at the beginning making it a 4 player quality and quantity package).

 

There's no way I'm targeting DeGrom or Thor if they're *demanding* Hiura be part of the deal similar to White Sox demanding Hader be part of Quintana. Hiura is a tweener between Altuve and Pedroia. I also wouldn't do it if I needed to include both Peralta and Burnes as if they're going to be traded they can each headline different trades to round out the team and make it better vs being in the same package for one player.

[adambr2]

No, Hiura is not even close in value to what Moncada was worth. Moncada was the #1 prospect in baseball. Kopech to Peralta is an enormous stretch as well but at least closer.

 

Phillips is not a 'top 100 piece' at this point. He's bordering closer to an AAAA type at this point than anything that any GM is going to attach real strong value to.

 

You're not going to get Thor or DeGrom with a quantity over quality package that doesn't include Hiura. I simply don't see any way of that happening. Yes, they're going to demand him, and even *if* we make the best offer with somehow omitting Hiura and one of Burnes/Peralta, they'll pass and wait for a better trade market as they have no strong incentive to make sure they're dealt by the deadline.

[paul253]

Let’s not forget the Mets have SOME risk too. Neither Degrom nor Syndergaard have been the picture of health and of happens to go down with a significant injury, or even a series of small injuries that causes them to continue to miss starts, teams are going to start getting a little more hesitant to trade the farm for them. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting the risk is all that great to the point where the Mets need to move then as soon as possible but it is something to consider.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still think the Mets would be insane to trade either one of them this season - where's the upside for them? They really hit on 1 of the prospects brought back for either of these guys and that player might turn out to be as good as either DeGrom or Syndergaard? Then they are in contention say 2 seasons from now but need to put together a package of prospects for a front line starter with similar traits to the one they traded away?

 

It's not like they are Tampa Bay - they play in New York! Regardless of their financial situation, they have no reason to trade either of them unless they are just blown away by a trade offer the likes that Milwaukee doesn't have the pieces to reach.

 

And Syndergaard terrifies me from the standpoint of what he'd require to trade for and the distinct possibility his arm blows out and would cost the Brewers 1-2 years of team control.

[pacopete4]

I still am not understanding why you wouldn’t build around these guys if they’re so good.

[paul253]

And Syndergaard terrifies me from the standpoint of what he'd require to trade for and the distinct possibility his arm blows out and would cost the Brewers 1-2 years of team control

 

You’re kind of contradicting yourself here. You mention the Mets would be insane to trade them but also then say there’s a distinct possibility Syndergaard blows out his arm. If the Mets think there’s a decent chance he blows out his arm then they’d be insane NOT to trade him.

 

The upside for the Mets is the hope that the package of players they get in return ends up being more valuable then the two guys they give up. I know it wasn’t prospects and it was a long time ago but remember when Milwaukee traded Richie Sexson to Arizona? None of the guys they got were as good as Sexson and some of them bombed. But overall the package probably ended up helping Milwaukee more than Sexson would have. That’s the hope when you trade a star player for multiple prospects.

[sveumrules]

I still am not understanding why you wouldn’t build around these guys if they’re so good.

 

Even with both performing near the highest end of reasonable expectations (before Thor strained a ligament in his finger) the Mets are a fourth place club both now & in future outlook within their division.

 

At any moment deGrom's currently higher than it will ever be trade value could suffer a similar hit, so sell high since you aren't winning anything anyway.

 

Thor has an extra year of control, is five years younger & currently hurt. Hold.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

sounds like you know a lot about what the Mets are looking for in a trade

[adambr2]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

sounds like you know a lot about what the Mets are looking for in a trade

 

Evaluating trade value based on past precedence, performance, control, salary, etc. isn't that hard.

 

It's not a perfect science of course but they're obviously not looking for Gilbert Lara and Caden Lemons.

[pacopete4]

I still am not understanding why you wouldn’t build around these guys if they’re so good.

 

Even with both performing near the highest end of reasonable expectations (before Thor strained a ligament in his finger) the Mets are a fourth place club both now & in future outlook within their division.

 

At any moment deGrom's currently higher than it will ever be trade value could suffer a similar hit, so sell high since you aren't winning anything anyway.

 

Thor has an extra year of control, is five years younger & currently hurt. Hold.

 

Then try signing Machado, Harper in the offseason. It’s not like they don’t have the resources.

[paul253]

Then try signing Machado, Harper in the offseason. It’s not like they don’t have the resources.

 

And that’s goig to all of a sudden make them into a contender? They can’t just keep signing players for $200 million contracts.

 

A good argument for the Mets to sell is this: They may very well feel they aren’t going anywhere with what they currently have. Much like we weren’t going anywhere with Gomez and Lucroy. So rather than continuing to play subpar baseball with Degrom and Syndergaard they could trade them both for an absolute haul of major league ready prospects to go along with their young talent and hopefully prevent a five year rebuild after two more years of average to below average baseball while simultaneously lessening their return for their pitchers by trading them with only a year or half a year left of control vs two or three years.

 

I’m not saying this is what they are thinking but it’s certainly one way to go.

[Eye Black]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

Back on topic...

 

Is this offer really that bad? I assume Burnes and Peralta would have to be included given they are the Brewers best pitching prospects. However, perhaps the injury concern with Syndergaard is the reason they take the second best hitting prospect instead of the first? Or would there be such interest in him that despite the injury concern, the acquiring team would have to part with their 3 best prospects?

 

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think a deal would be 2 pitchers (Burnes and Peralta) and 2 hitters (Erceg and Phillips).

The problem is you are competing against the majority of baseball for Syndergaard’s services. Even with some real injury concern Thor’s ceiling is so incredibly tantalizing. If that proposed deal gets it done than a dozen or so teams across baseball fell asleep at the wheel, IMO.

[KeithStone53151]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

Back on topic...

 

Is this offer really that bad? I assume Burnes and Peralta would have to be included given they are the Brewers best pitching prospects. However, perhaps the injury concern with Syndergaard is the reason they take the second best hitting prospect instead of the first? Or would there be such interest in him that despite the injury concern, the acquiring team would have to part with their 3 best prospects?

 

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think a deal would be 2 pitchers (Burnes and Peralta) and 2 hitters (Erceg and Phillips).

The problem is you are competing against the majority of baseball for Syndergaard’s services. Even with some real injury concern Thor’s ceiling is so incredibly tantalizing. If that proposed deal gets it done than a dozen or so teams across baseball fell asleep at the wheel, IMO.

 

I'm curious who all these teams are that are willing and able to trade a better package than that for Degrom or Syndergaard. The teams that throw prospects around as if they are meaningless have already depleted their farm systems. The teams with the best farms right now aren't the type of teams that will throw away all their prospects for one player. I can understand the argument that the value of Degrom or Syndergaard being greater than some of the packages offered. But the value doesn't have to be equal, it just has to be the best offer. I doubt any team in baseball offers equal value for Syndergaard or Degrom with this much team control. It's all about the market.

 

This is also why I've said from the beginning, I highly doubt either are traded.

[Eye Black]

I'm curious who all these teams are that are willing and able to trade a better package than that for Degrom or Syndergaard. The teams that throw prospects around as if they are meaningless have already depleted their farm systems. The teams with the best farms right now aren't the type of teams that will throw away all their prospects for one player. I can understand the argument that the value of Degrom or Syndergaard being greater than some of the packages offered. But the value doesn't have to be equal, it just has to be the best offer. I doubt any team in baseball offers equal value for Syndergaard or Degrom with this much team control. It's all about the market.

 

This is also why I've said from the beginning, I highly doubt either are traded.

It seems like the bolded parts are contradictory statements. If I am reading it correctly you are asserting that teams don’t need to offer full value in order to acquire Syndergaard or deGrom because baseball is flooded with prospect hugging organizations that will depress the market value for either pitcher. Then you said that is why they won’t be traded? Sure, if teams don’t offer adequate value for either pitcher the Mets have absolutely no reason to move either player, but then doesn’t that sink your theory about teams being able to acquire either pitcher without offering equal value as long as it is simply the “best offer”?

[adambr2]

The only reason the Mets are even opening the door a crack on Syndergaard or DeGrom is because they have nothing to lose by seeing if someone will absolutely blow them away with an offer they can't refuse. That's what they are waiting on, they're not just prepared to take the top bid.

 

I would put a much higher chance on them trading someone like Wheeler. Syndergaard, basically 0-2%. DeGrom, maybe 15-20% and if it happens we'll be saying wow, what a haul.

[splitterpfj]

I believe the Mets will deal deGrom if they get an offer they like - it just makes too much sense to use him to bring in a bunch of young talent.

 

To me, for the Brewers to be the match here, there are a few key questions ....

 

1. Will we give Huira - if not, I think we're out.

2. Assuming Huira's in, I think the Mets get two of Burnes, Ortiz, Peralta and Woodruff - at this point, I say Peralta's out of the deal - can the two teams agree on two from the list?

3. There will be a fourth player, do the Mets try for three pitchers, or do they push for a bat? Most of the top rated hitters the Brewers had entering the season just haven't done a lot this year, the one guy who has taken obvious steps forward is Corey Ray. Is he in play?

 

Do you give both Huira and Ray with two of your best pitching prospects to get deGrom? Do you give three of your best pitching prospects with Huira to get deGrom?

 

If I'm the Mets, that's the sort of package I'm asking for, If no one will meet my price, I can deal this pitcher in December.

 

I think the Brewers have enough in the system to get deGrom - I don't think they'll give what it takes.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm curious who all these teams are that are willing and able to trade a better package than that for Degrom or Syndergaard. The teams that throw prospects around as if they are meaningless have already depleted their farm systems. The teams with the best farms right now aren't the type of teams that will throw away all their prospects for one player. I can understand the argument that the value of Degrom or Syndergaard being greater than some of the packages offered. But the value doesn't have to be equal, it just has to be the best offer. I doubt any team in baseball offers equal value for Syndergaard or Degrom with this much team control. It's all about the market.

 

This is also why I've said from the beginning, I highly doubt either are traded.

It seems like the bolded parts are contradictory statements. If I am reading it correctly you are asserting that teams don’t need to offer full value in order to acquire Syndergaard or deGrom because baseball is flooded with prospect hugging organizations that will depress the market value for either pitcher. Then you said that is why they won’t be traded? Sure, if teams don’t offer adequate value for either pitcher the Mets have absolutely no reason to move either player, but then doesn’t that sink your theory about teams being able to acquire either pitcher without offering equal value as long as it is simply the “best offer”?

 

We shouldn't be trying to put together a massive, mouth-watering overpayment package to entice the Mets to part with one of their top pitchers. Our goal should be to beat other teams offers. If we make the best offer of any team, and the Mets decide it isn't good enough and keep their starters...so be it. With players of this caliber with this much team control, there is certainly going to be a wide gap between what is offered in prospects and what these pitchers are actually worth. Many have pointed out specifically for the Brewers that they think we'd need to trade Hiura, Burnes, Peralta to have a chance at either pitcher. Are you really willing to trade our top 3 prospects, and really our only likely impact prospects...for one guy? Our farm goes from the 6-10 range to about 20th in a hurry with that move...and the likelihood of getting significant reinforcements from the minors anytime soon decreases drastically. Other GM's thought process is certainly similar, and GM's like Atlanta, NY, LA, etc have passed on opportunities to empty the farm for proven talent in recent years. I'm sure they'll make offers, but nobody is going to offer back 100% value in prospects for either guy. Nobody is going to match a Hiura, Burnes, Peralta offer...and for all we know that may not be enough to entice the Mets anyway.

[BallandGlove]

These ideas of trading Hiura and Peralta just makes me shake my head. And then the idea of trading Hader WILL NEVER HAPPEN this year folks. Isn't the idea to minor league assests to win now? But Peralta is helping now and could be a big component in September and further. Hiura has hit at every level he has played at (including spring training). The brewers are an Shaw or Villar or Perez injury away from a possible call up. I believe Hiura could be a huge asset in September or the playoffs as a bench bat alone. A man in scoring position and a Hiura base hit is just as valuable as the homerun in a tight playoff game.

 

I work in physical therapy and you don't want to be messing around with a strained ligament (Syndergard) as ligaments have little blood supply hence the reason ligament injuries take forever to heal and can flare up in the future out of thin air. Syndergard has already had one set back btw.

 

Brewers are best to set a minor league budget of who they want to give up. For me this would include anyone not named Peralta, Hiura and Burnes. They may also mean that you may only subject to Hamels or Happ which I would rather be on board with than the Mets big 2. I would also be open to Kyle Gibson from the Twins who happens to be pitching well this year or Tyson Ross from the Padres.

 

Its foolish to trade assets who can help you win this year. Robbing Peter to pay Paul in every sense. Happ can be this years Verlander and Houston didn't break the bank for Verlander either. Brewers can't afford to be throwing money or "value" away at pretty stats.

[bork]

Article popped up on my phone that says the Brewers could get Syndergaard for Aguilar, Phillips and Burnes. I think the Mets would laugh at that one.

[Dadbauer]

Article popped up on my phone that says the Brewers could get Syndergaard for Aguilar, Phillips and Burnes. I think the Mets would laugh at that one.

 

If that were possible this thread would be locked as the deal would be done.

[shanedog19]

I'm a hard pass on both. I don't want to mortgage the farm for what it will take to get either. I would try and improve the bullpen, get a bat, and call it a deadline. I am also hoping Nelson comes back healthy by August, which would be like adding an ace at the deadline.

[Dadbauer]

Even if Nelson DOES come back, I would caution you thinking it's like getting ace. He's had one ace year so far in his career and coming back from a major surgery and we're lucky if he's at that level. The upside is, if he IS pitching great, it costs nothing.