Syndergaard and deGrom

[KeithStone53151]

If they tried to demand Hiura and Burnes they won't get far. Very few teams in baseball have 2 prospects that can match Hiura/Burnes

 

Oh come on. The guy has a sub 3 career ERA over close to 800 innings and may be the leading NL Cy Young candidate right now. On top of that we’d not only get him for the rest of this year but all of next year and all of the year after that. The Mets should not only expect to get Hiura and Burnes but should also, rightfully, expect to get more. Burnes ceiling is nowhere near that of Degrom and he’s done all of nothing in the major leagues yet. I’d be hesitant to trade Hiura just because we seem to lack very many high ceiling prospects right now, particularly positional prospects, and because he seems like the real deal. But you can’t acquire a talent like Degrom or Syndergaard with a bunch of mid level prospects.

 

Agreed with everything here. The Mets would (and should) be asking for the moon for deGrom. The Brewers cannot get deGrom without giving up Hiura and Burnes/Peralta. Personally, I'd rather keep our prospects. Hiura is darn near untouchable for me at this point.

 

That's the thing, no other team is willing to trade their elite prospects. The Nats didn't trade Robles, the Braves didn't trade Acuna. These blue chip guys simply don't get traded anymore. The Phillies might be willing to include Sanchez in a trade, the Dodgers might be willing to include Verdugo...those are probably the best prospects that the Mets might get for Degrom. Hiura ranks above both of those guys at this point in my opinion, maybe he gets included in a trade but I doubt it.

[OnaBadger58]

I guess I don't know what you qualify as blue chip, but I would disagree with that. Look at the Quintana, Chapman, Miller (Shelby and Andrew), Eaton, Yelich, Sale, Lucroy, Andrelton Simmons, etc. trades. Blue Chip prospects do get traded especially for elite controlled talent like deGrom.

[long ball]

The mlb.com piece suggesting Huira, Burnes, Peralta, and Ray may very well be what it would take to pry deGrom away from the Mets. Those are realistically the Brewers 4 best prospects right now though and it would legitimately decimate their farm system. Probably too much for me to root for them to pull the trigger.

 

Something interesting to consider: if the Brewers are ok to run up their payroll significantly they'll probably be ok to empty their farm system to some extent because every important player is controlled through at least 2020. I think the goal is to keep this thing going perpetually though and not inadvertently define a window. Giving up that package for deGrom basically defines a window for them at 2020. Probably not something Stearns will pull the trigger on if that's what it would take.

[paul253]

That's the thing, no other team is willing to trade their elite prospects

 

Atlanta though has a lot more than Acuna. MLB.com has them with 5 additional players, all pitchers no less, in their top 50. It would actually be a very wise move for them to send two of them to NY for either Degrom or Syndergaard because surely some of them will eventually lose some value.

 

It might also help the Brewers if NYM trades both of their pitchers and Atlanta gives up some pitching prospects for one of them because maybe then the Metropolitans would be more likely to accept positional prospects like Ray and Phillips as secondary pieces as opposed to Burns or Peralta. I wonder if Hiura, Ray, Phillips and maybe a lesser pitcher like Ponce or Dilplan would be enough. Probably depends on how the Mets view Ray.

 

Let’s look at the overall hypothetical picture for the Mets: They trade Syndergaard and Degrom and acquire, hypothetically: Allard, Soroka, Toussaint, Hiura, Ray, Phillips and Diplan. Enough?

[KeithStone53151]

I guess I don't know what you qualify as blue chip, but I would disagree with that. Look at the Quintana, Chapman, Miller (Shelby and Andrew), Eaton, Yelich, Sale, Lucroy, Andrelton Simmons, etc. trades. Blue Chip prospects do get traded especially for elite controlled talent like deGrom.

 

Yelich and Lucroy brought back Brinson as the "blue-chip" guy, but I wouldn't call him blue chip. He has a high floor on the defensive side but the bat had always been questionable. The Quintana, Chapman, Shelby Miller, and Sale trades were desperation moves...massive overpays done by arguably terrible GM's. Everyone thinks Theo is a genius for some reason, so I'll avoid including him but Dombrowski and Stewart are indisputably dreadful GM's. I'm not sure what blue chip prospect was in the Simmons deal. I think Frazier was a bit overrated at the time of the trade, I don't know that he's as good of a prospect as Hiura was. With the Eaton deal, I believe the Nationals were actively trying to trade Gioloto for some reason...and I'm not sure why. That trade didn't make much sense to anybody at the time.

 

The teams willing to gut their farm system to make bad trades have already done so...and don't have the prospect capital to compete with us. The teams I listed previously, NYY, LAD, PHI have very solid GM's that aren't going to massively overpay for Degrom.

[KeithStone53151]

That's the thing, no other team is willing to trade their elite prospects

 

Atlanta though has a lot more than Acuna. MLB.com has them with 5 additional players, all pitchers no less, in their top 50. It would actually be a very wise move for them to send two of them to NY for either Degrom or Syndergaard because surely some of them will eventually lose some value.

 

It might also help the Brewers if NYM trades both of their pitchers and Atlanta gives up some pitching prospects for one of them because maybe then the Metropolitans would be more likely to accept positional prospects like Ray and Phillips as secondary pieces as opposed to Burns or Peralta. I wonder if Hiura, Ray, Phillips and maybe a lesser pitcher like Ponce or Dilplan would be enough. Probably depends on how the Mets view Ray.

 

Let’s look at the overall hypothetical picture for the Mets: They trade Syndergaard and Degrom and acquire, hypothetically: Allard, Soroka, Toussaint, Hiura, Ray, Phillips and Diplan. Enough?

 

I'd honestly prefer to give up the pitching prospects and keep Hiura.

 

Another reason it's probably less likely Atlanta makes a trade with the Mets is they are in the same division. That also makes it tough for the Phillies...and to a lesser degree the Yankees. From that same perspective, we've had trouble trading with the Mets in the past...though that was more Melvin than Stearns.

 

Maybe the Mets won't be able to trade either because they struggle executing trades with anybody...

[adambr2]

As Badger pointed out, Torres, Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez, and Gioloto, among others have all changed teams in the last 2 years. If these are not blue chip prospect I don't know who you would call blue chip.

 

If, and it's a big if, but if the Mets are openly shopping Syndergaard or DeGrom, there are going to be numerous others in on it. And some are going to offer a lot better headliner than Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta -- probably even Hiura.

 

If we put an offer out there of Burnes or Peralta + Ray + Supak + flyer or two, that offer will get pulverized by open bidding. These guys are controlled TOR assets, this is not a 2017 Sonny Gray situation. Teams that aren't even contenders this year and are already looking toward 2019 are likely to throw their hat in the ring for a shot at Syndergaard or DeGrom.

[MrTPlush]

If you are making a trade for either of these guys and you are only including Hiura and lessers (like Ray and lower) you are living in a dream. It is taking Hiura plus Burnes/Peralta just to start a conversation.

[KeithStone53151]

As Badger pointed out, Torres, Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez, and Gioloto, among others have all changed teams in the last 2 years. If these are not blue chip prospect I don't know who you would call blue chip.

 

If, and it's a big if, but if the Mets are openly shopping Syndergaard or DeGrom, there are going to be numerous others in on it. And some are going to offer a lot better headliner than Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta -- probably even Hiura.

 

If we put an offer out there of Burnes or Peralta + Ray + Supak + flyer or two, that offer will get pulverized by open bidding. These guys are controlled TOR assets, this is not a 2017 Sonny Gray situation. Teams that aren't even contenders this year and are already looking toward 2019 are likely to throw their hat in the ring for a shot at Syndergaard or DeGrom.

 

4 of those 5 you listed were desperation overpays, and Gioloto was being shopped for some weird, unknown reason by the Nationals. You can't say "well Degrom will cost this because some insane GM's made crazy desperation offers in the last couple years".

 

I think the last offer I floated was Burnes + Hiura + Phillips + a couple lesser guys. It's easy to say "people are going to offer better prospects than hiura for these guys". Who are these contenders that will do that? I could see a non-contender targeting Syndergaard, but not Degrom and he's the guy I would target of the 2. I've been continually pointing out specifics as to why I think a package I've laid out will work, and it gets continually refuted with "well someone will offer better prospects". The only contending team that can beat a Burnes + Peralta led package easily is Atlanta...and that would be tricky being a divisional trade and I'm not entirely sure Atlanta will be motivated to make that move.

 

The dumb teams like Chicago and Boston have already spent all their prospect capital and don't have the farm to throw their hat in on someone like Degrom. The contenders with prospect capital actually value their prospect capital and won't make dumb trades like those 2 teams.

[trwi7]

4 of those 5 you listed were desperation overpays, and Gioloto was being shopped for some weird, unknown reason by the Nationals. You can't say "well Degrom will cost this because some insane GM's made crazy desperation offers in the last couple years".

 

Well you can because it's arguable that they were desperation overpays to begin with and even if they were, the Mets have no reason to trade either deGrom or Syndergaard unless someone gives them a desperation overpay.

[Eye Black]

The only contending team that can beat a Burnes + Peralta led package easily is Atlanta...and that would be tricky being a divisional trade and I'm not entirely sure Atlanta will be motivated to make that move.

That is simply not true. The Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Indians, and Dodgers could all easily offer a more attractive top two prospects than a Burnes and Peralta led package.

[KeithStone53151]

4 of those 5 you listed were desperation overpays, and Gioloto was being shopped for some weird, unknown reason by the Nationals. You can't say "well Degrom will cost this because some insane GM's made crazy desperation offers in the last couple years".

 

Well you can because it's arguable that they were desperation overpays to begin with and even if they were, the Mets have no reason to trade either deGrom or Syndergaard unless someone gives them a desperation overpay.

 

The Chapman trade is unquestionably a desperation overpay. The others are a bit more arguable but still probably overpays.

 

And that's fair, maybe they'll do like the Rays and ask for the moon...we stick to what we are willing to give up and if it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. I think a Burnes + Peralta + Phillips caliber offer will be very competitive, potentially the best offer they'll get for Degrom unless Atlanta packages up a few pitchers or the Dodgers become stupid and include Buehler. Nothing Atlanta, LA, or NY have done recently make me think they'll drastically overpay for a SP...those are very good front offices that value their prospect capital. If that offer is the best they get, maybe they opt to keep Degrom and try again in the offseason. Hard to know for sure, we'll see what happens.

 

If it's me, I'm not including Hiura in a trade. He's basically as blue-chip as it gets, and fills an obvious need.

[KeithStone53151]

The only contending team that can beat a Burnes + Peralta led package easily is Atlanta...and that would be tricky being a divisional trade and I'm not entirely sure Atlanta will be motivated to make that move.

That is simply not true. The Astros, Nationals, Yankees, Indians, and Dodgers could all easily offer a more attractive top two prospects than a Burnes and Peralta led package.

 

The Astros, Indians, and Nationals don't really have the need. I omitted them for that reason. Their rotations are so solid. With the Yankees it's close, and the Dodgers would have to include Verdugo to match those 2 and I really don't think they'd do that...maybe for Syndergaard but not Degrom.

 

Also, Degrom's salary on the year isn't huge but it might be enough to push certain teams over the luxury tax...I'm especially looking at the Dodgers.

[adambr2]

As others have pointed out:

 

1) The Mets have absolutely no incentive to deal either of those two unless they get a desperation overpay. The Yankees could show up offering Torres straight up and there's a good chance the Mets wouldn't bite.

 

2) It's the trade deadline. Desperation overpays are part of the process, not an aberration from a previous year.

 

Put yourself in the opposite shoes, say you're Stearns, you're having a rough year after a good start, and you have two aces, both with sub 3 career ERAs. Your older one is controlled still through 2020, and is having an insanely good Cy Young type season with an otherworldly 1.55 ERA as a starter.

 

How excited are you going to be to deal him for a package that includes a total of zero top 50 prospects, 1 top 100, and a fringe top 100?

 

Goodness, we did better than that for a year and a half of a catcher. I agree with a lot of what you say, generally. But Burnes + Peralta + Phillips puts you nowhere close to getting DeGrom.

[reillymcshane]

deGrom or Syndergaard would almost assuredly require Hiura as a centerpiece on a return. Both are amongst the top pitchers in baseball, they have 2.5 and 3.5 years of control attached to them. They are no rentals. And at ages 30 and 25, they are should maintain their skillset through their contracts.

 

Chris Sale (who is probably about as perfect a player to be traded in the last few years due to his age, ability, performance, durability, good health, affordable contract, etc.) netted the #2 prospect in baseball (Moncada), plus a guy ranked between 15-35 - depending on the publication (Kopech).

 

And while deGrom and Syndergaard aren't Sale - they are pretty darn good players.

 

You can probably argue that Hiura is a Top 25ish guy now. Add in another top 100 player, and one or two borderline top 100 guys - and you have something the Mets might consider. I'd say a Hiura and then Burnes and two of Peralta, Ray, Woodruff, Ortiz or Phillips.

 

I'm not sure I'd want to do this. I'm just thinking that's what it would take for a player the caliber of deGrom or Syndergaard.

[superfly]

Sell high on Hiura all the way to the bank.

[adambr2]

deGrom or Syndergaard would almost assuredly require Hiura as a centerpiece on a return. Both are amongst the top pitchers in baseball, they have 2.5 and 3.5 years of control attached to them. They are no rentals. And at ages 30 and 25, they are should maintain their skillset through their contracts.

 

Chris Sale (who is probably about as perfect a player to be traded in the last few years due to his age, ability, performance, durability, good health, affordable contract, etc.) netted the #2 prospect in baseball (Moncada), plus a guy ranked between 15-35 - depending on the publication (Kopech).

 

And while deGrom and Syndergaard aren't Sale - they are pretty darn good players.

 

You can probably argue that Hiura is a Top 25ish guy now. Add in another top 100 player, and one or two borderline top 100 guys - and you have something the Mets might consider. I'd say a Hiura and then Burnes and two of Peralta, Ray, Woodruff, Ortiz or Phillips.

 

I'm not sure I'd want to do this. I'm just thinking that's what it would take for a player the caliber of deGrom or Syndergaard.

 

That's more along the lines of what I'm thinking it would cost eventually. And I'm betting the Mets' initial ask would probably include both Hiura and Hader because, why wouldn't they?

 

Keston Hiura is the only current 'blue chip' prospect in our system, and you could argue that he carries similar value to what Brinson had this time last year. Perhaps even slightly more the way he is going.

 

Burnes and Peralta are very nice prospects, but in terms of what Hiura is worth, they're not really that close. Both do have question marks -- Hiura's bat is about as sure of an MLB tool as you'll see in a prospect.

 

I'm not saying we should trade Hiura -- far from it. 6+ years of that bat at 2nd, if he can be even average defensively, is not something I want to give up. But when you're talking about acquiring not only a controlled TOR starter, but arguably the most dominant starter in the National League-- being unwilling to part with your top prospect and trying to centerpiece a package around a couple prospects in the 50-100 range is just a total non-starter.

[Boomer5]

Hiura and Burnes have to be in any trade for either of these two and it probably wouldn't be enough.

[Montezuma]

I am, for the most part, hesitant in trading away our valued prospects. But at the end of the day, they are PROSPECT, not proven major league talent. I trust in Stearns judgement.

[Warning Track Power]

Bleacher Report speculated about what it would take from the Brewers to acquire Syndergaard. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2781121-potential-landing-spots-and-trade-packages-for-noah-syndergaard#slide3

 

They came up with the following:

 

Corbin Burnes

Freddy Peralta

Lucas Erceg

Payton Henry

 

If the Brewers can acquire Syndergaard with this package (without Hiura) count me in.

[trwi7]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

[BrewCrew02]

Replace Henry with Hiura and they might be onto something

[KeithStone53151]

Generally speaking, premium prospects don't get traded. I'll use the extreme example, I don't think I'd trade vlad straight up for Syndergaard if we had him. He could be a top 10 player in baseball before he can legally drink a beer in this country.

 

This bleacher report actually seems to know a bit about our prospects. They can see that Peralta is a very good prospect, probably the best prospect in that trade. Also that Henry is likely to rise significantly up our prospects list at the midseason update. That offer is likely around a fringe top 50 prospects, another top 100 prospect(80 or so), a just outside the top 100(erceg), and Henry who plays a premium position and is on the rise. 3 likely impact prospects, and then Henry who could also be an impact prospect. That's a considerable package, especially considering the multiple impact arms in the deal, but I'm not sure I'd offer that for Syndergaard with his injury history.

 

Syndergaard in general is so tough to value due to his upside and injury history.

[Warning Track Power]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

Back on topic...

 

Is this offer really that bad? I assume Burnes and Peralta would have to be included given they are the Brewers best pitching prospects. However, perhaps the injury concern with Syndergaard is the reason they take the second best hitting prospect instead of the first? Or would there be such interest in him that despite the injury concern, the acquiring team would have to part with their 3 best prospects?

 

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think a deal would be 2 pitchers (Burnes and Peralta) and 2 hitters (Erceg and Phillips).

[trwi7]

The only thing that offer does is get the Mets to hang up immediately.

Back on topic...

 

Is this offer really that bad?

 

Yes, I believe so. This is one of the top starters in baseball under control for several years. They're going to need a lot better headliner than Burnes and if they actually do agree to Burnes as a headliner, they're going to need at least two more Burnes caliber prospects.