Syndergaard and deGrom

[Fear The Chorizo]

The only things deGrom has the edge in are actual performance & health.

 

Which is why I'd be very hesitant giving up a ton of value for Thor, despite his upside. Pitchers like him with a list of minor injuries tend to find a way to suffer a significant arm injury that leads to 1+ lost seasons, which would be crippling to a brewer team looking to rely on him before he gets too expensive and likely becomes a trade chip they would need to deal themselves.

 

And I would say that degrom is the better pitcher and would provide the most value based on the facts that he apears to be less of an injury risk and stats say he is better at pitching.

[splitterpfj]

on MLB last night the talk was about the Yanks going after DeGroom

 

Of course they did - the networks play to the most tv sets, which begins with NY, as the largest media market. Beyond that, it absolutely makes sense for the two NY teams to try to work out a deal in this case - the Yankees need help in the rotation, and the Mets need to match up with a team that has a deep farm system.

 

The Brewers could land deGrom, there's enough in the farm system to do that, but if they do, it will be a major change of course for Mr Stearns, because this one would leave them with a hole in the organizational depth he has talked about since the day he was hired.

 

I think the Brewers should pursue the Mets' pitchers, if they are made available, I think there's a rare time and place to make a move like that, and the Brewers have gotten into that window. Having said that, I expect a much lower profile trade for a pitcher, in the same mold as the Chacin signing that took place while the media insisted we were players for Darvish, Arrieta, etc.

[mlloyd10]

Hiura / Burnes / Diplan / Ray for Degrom

 

Hader / Burnes / Hiura / Lutz for Noah

[bill hAll Star]

Hiura / Burnes / Diplan / Ray for Degrom

 

Hader / Burnes / Hiura / Lutz for Noah

 

My concern here is this:

 

Hader is probably almost as valuable as Thor in the majors right now and very well could be just as good if transitioned to a starter. You're robbing Peter to pay Paul on the MLB roster, maybe missing the playoffs, and basically giving up 3 good prospects to probably not upgrade a ton.

 

I'm not sure that's enough for deGrom. If it is, I guess you maybe do that trade.

[Madhawk23]

ZERO chance the Brewers would move Hader to any team at this point. The guy has probably been the most valuable reliever in all of baseball so far this year, and a huge weapon for this team moving forward. No way they trade him, even for a guy like Thor.

[Warning Track Power]

ZERO chance the Brewers would move Hader to any team at this point. The guy has probably been the most valuable reliever in all of baseball so far this year, and a huge weapon for this team moving forward. No way they trade him, even for a guy like Thor.

While I understand your point, if the hypothetical deal was Thor for Hader straight up I think the Brewers would strongly consider that.

[bill hAll Star]

Thor's out for a while as well, FWIW. Could be one of those things that lingers all year.

[KeithStone53151]

Thor's out for a while as well, FWIW. Could be one of those things that lingers all year.

 

I'm much more inclined to target Degrom, in part due to acquisition cost. Let's all keep in mind we are probably paying close to $30 million for 2+ years of Degrom should we target him, though we could always trade him or take the comp pick when the time comes. We'd also be getting age 30-32 seasons. All are simply considerations.

 

I would try to send Burnes and/or Peralta as the centerpiece in a trade for Degrom if we go that route. I suspect they'd demand Hiura, but that guy is so stinking good I'd try really hard to keep him. Burnes or Peralta, Ray, Supak, and a flier or 2 for Degrom, I feel like that's reasonably close.

[bill hAll Star]

Thor's out for a while as well, FWIW. Could be one of those things that lingers all year.

 

I'm much more inclined to target Degrom, in part due to acquisition cost. Let's all keep in mind we are probably paying close to $30 million for 2+ years of Degrom should we target him, though we could always trade him or take the comp pick when the time comes. We'd also be getting age 30-32 seasons. All are simply considerations.

 

I would try to send Burnes and/or Peralta as the centerpiece in a trade for Degrom if we go that route. I suspect they'd demand Hiura, but that guy is so stinking good I'd try really hard to keep him. Burnes or Peralta, Ray, Supak, and a flier or 2 for Degrom, I feel like that's reasonably close.

 

Somebody else can probably trump that offer. I know that Ray is turning it around but he still has a ceiling of Brett Gardner maybe with a tad more power. That's a nice piece, but the Mets are gonna want more unless they really covet Burnes.

 

Of course the Mets keep moving closer and closer to the rental phase for deGrom so if the league keeps lowballing, they may be forced to take something like this. But I think one of these AL teams in tight races may be desperate enough to put 2 top 100 prospects in there.

[KeithStone53151]

Thor's out for a while as well, FWIW. Could be one of those things that lingers all year.

 

I'm much more inclined to target Degrom, in part due to acquisition cost. Let's all keep in mind we are probably paying close to $30 million for 2+ years of Degrom should we target him, though we could always trade him or take the comp pick when the time comes. We'd also be getting age 30-32 seasons. All are simply considerations.

 

I would try to send Burnes and/or Peralta as the centerpiece in a trade for Degrom if we go that route. I suspect they'd demand Hiura, but that guy is so stinking good I'd try really hard to keep him. Burnes or Peralta, Ray, Supak, and a flier or 2 for Degrom, I feel like that's reasonably close.

 

Somebody else can probably trump that offer. I know that Ray is turning it around but he still has a ceiling of Brett Gardner maybe with a tad more power. That's a nice piece, but the Mets are gonna want more unless they really covet Burnes.

 

Of course the Mets keep moving closer and closer to the rental phase for deGrom so if the league keeps lowballing, they may be forced to take something like this. But I think one of these AL teams in tight races may be desperate enough to put 2 top 100 prospects in there.

 

Right, most teams can beat that offer if seriously inclined. It's not solely about the player though, $30 million for 2+ years is a lot. And age is a consideration. It's still a good value contract but should definitely all be considered. You could always try to include a guy like Phillips or Ortiz instead of the flier. Burnes + Ortiz/Phillips + Ray + Supak. That's probably a bit too much but I doubt any team would offer 4 solid prospects like these for 2+ years of a pitcher at that cost.

[trwi7]

deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the game. They're not taking our 2nd best prospect plus some random filler. The Mets would tell us to piss off and rightly so.

[bill hAll Star]

 

I'm much more inclined to target Degrom, in part due to acquisition cost. Let's all keep in mind we are probably paying close to $30 million for 2+ years of Degrom should we target him, though we could always trade him or take the comp pick when the time comes. We'd also be getting age 30-32 seasons. All are simply considerations.

 

I would try to send Burnes and/or Peralta as the centerpiece in a trade for Degrom if we go that route. I suspect they'd demand Hiura, but that guy is so stinking good I'd try really hard to keep him. Burnes or Peralta, Ray, Supak, and a flier or 2 for Degrom, I feel like that's reasonably close.

 

Somebody else can probably trump that offer. I know that Ray is turning it around but he still has a ceiling of Brett Gardner maybe with a tad more power. That's a nice piece, but the Mets are gonna want more unless they really covet Burnes.

 

Of course the Mets keep moving closer and closer to the rental phase for deGrom so if the league keeps lowballing, they may be forced to take something like this. But I think one of these AL teams in tight races may be desperate enough to put 2 top 100 prospects in there.

 

Right, most teams can beat that offer if seriously inclined. It's not solely about the player though, $30 million for 2+ years is a lot. And age is a consideration. It's still a good value contract but should definitely all be considered. You could always try to include a guy like Phillips or Ortiz instead of the flier. Burnes + Ortiz/Phillips + Ray + Supak. That's probably a bit too much but I doubt any team would offer 4 solid prospects like these for 2+ years of a pitcher at that cost.

 

I understand that we're kinda inching towards our upper cusp of salary but the salary is zero concern for me. If the Mets were desperate enough to take that lowball trade we've offered and deGrom bombs, the salary barely matters. He's not going to cripple us for 5 years. We're probably screwed regardless if he gets hurt or is somehow terrible.

[KeithStone53151]

deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the game. They're not taking our 2nd best prospect plus some random filler. The Mets would tell us to piss off and rightly so.

 

I'm not so sure I'd call Ray or Supak filler. Ray will be a top 10 prospect and Supak could be close, and Supak has a lot of helium right now as he's having a good season. Both of those guys are actually. Teams tend to be more inclined to trade for prospects playing well. Prospects have generally become much more valuable, I'm not so sure it's going to take a team backing up the farm truck and sending over their top 5 prospects to get 2 years of Degrom. Replace one of them with a Medeiros or someone else of that caliber if you like, but the idea is we are sending over a near MLB ready likely mid-rotation arm(which has incredible value), 2 back end of our top 10 prospects, and a flier or 2. If you have to add someone like Phillips to the trade to get it done, fine. It's absolutely possible they prefer guys closer to mlb ready.

 

For a comparable deal, look at the Greinke trade...and also factor in that even at the time, it was obvious we overpaid for Greinke. Prospects have generally gained value since that trade, so the prospect haul likely won't need to be as significant. We gave up Odorizzi who was in low a at the time and projected to have a ceiling of a mid rotation starter, Cain who posted solid but unspectacular numbers in the minors before trade, Escobar who had a lousy first MLB hitting season but was an elite defender, and Jeffress...who at the time was a major risk and a head case. We also brought back Yuni B. Burnes is better than any single prospect in that trade, so that alone is a trump card. Supak and Ray have a lot of upside and are in AA, so relatively high in the minors. Overall, I view my offer as relatively comparable to the Greinke deal...it might be slightly less in return but again Burnes is a better prospect right now than any of those 4 were at that time.

[paul253]

The Mets are going to demand Hiura to begin. And probably Burns. We have to decide if we’re willing to part with those two plus some.

[trwi7]

deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the game. They're not taking our 2nd best prospect plus some random filler. The Mets would tell us to piss off and rightly so.

 

I'm not so sure I'd call Ray or Supak filler. Ray will be a top 10 prospect and Supak could be close, and Supak has a lot of helium right now as he's having a good season. Both of those guys are actually. Teams tend to be more inclined to trade for prospects playing well. Prospects have generally become much more valuable, I'm not so sure it's going to take a team backing up the farm truck and sending over their top 5 prospects to get 2 years of Degrom. Replace one of them with a Medeiros or someone else of that caliber if you like, but the idea is we are sending over a near MLB ready likely mid-rotation arm(which has incredible value), 2 back end of our top 10 prospects, and a flier or 2. If you have to add someone like Phillips to the trade to get it done, fine. It's absolutely possible they prefer guys closer to mlb ready.

 

For a comparable deal, look at the Greinke trade...and also factor in that even at the time, it was obvious we overpaid for Greinke. Prospects have generally gained value since that trade, so the prospect haul likely won't need to be as significant. We gave up Odorizzi who was in low a at the time and projected to have a ceiling of a mid rotation starter, Cain who posted solid but unspectacular numbers in the minors before trade, Escobar who had a lousy first MLB hitting season but was an elite defender, and Jeffress...who at the time was a major risk and a head case. We also brought back Yuni B. Burnes is better than any single prospect in that trade, so that alone is a trump card. Supak and Ray have a lot of upside and are in AA, so relatively high in the minors. Overall, I view my offer as relatively comparable to the Greinke deal...it might be slightly less in return but again Burnes is a better prospect right now than any of those 4 were at that time.

 

Greinke wasn't close to as good as deGrom or Syndergaard, had less control and had the ability to choose where he went. There is just absolutely no chance we get either one with Burnes and filler and yes, Ray and Supak are filler.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Greinke wasn't close to as good as deGrom or Syndergaard, had less control and had the ability to choose where he went. There is just absolutely no chance we get either one with Burnes and filler and yes, Ray and Supak are filler.

 

I'm referring more specifically to Degrom, and Greinke was better. Last I checked Greinke was a year removed from a Cy young. Hard to say Degrom is better than that. We were also trading for his 27-28 age seasons versus 31-32...so age was less of a concern.

 

Also as I noted, prospect value has changed dramatically since then. Teams aren't as willing to trade their best prospects. If they tried to demand Hiura and Burnes they won't get far. Very few teams in baseball have 2 prospects that can match Hiura/Burnes...and I doubt they'd be willing to match that. We'll find out for sure if/when a trade happens, I just don't think both of them wind up in a trade.

 

And if you think Ray and Supak are filler, you should probably re-evaluate how you value prospects. Those guys are both either in our top 10 or very close...and again, both are having very solid seasons to date.

[markedman5]

Yeah I'm not doing this

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-trade-fits-and-possibilities/c-281132180?tcid=tw_article_281132180

[KeithStone53151]

Yeah I'm not doing this

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-trade-fits-and-possibilities/c-281132180?tcid=tw_article_281132180

 

The writer did a good job picking the teams likely to target him with the prospect capital. I ruled out the Braves as I think they are more likely to keep their arms for now and potentially trade one or two down the line for impact bats. I also don't think the Rockies stay in it long enough that trade for Degrom makes sense.

 

I also think this guy wildly overvalues Degrom. If I'm the Dodgers, no way am I giving up Buehler for anything. He has frontline starter written all over him and is already pitching like one, why trade 6 cheap years of him for 2+ years of Degrom? Makes no sense. Someone also may want to tell this guy that Peralta is a better prospect than Burnes at this point. I feel like this guy has minimal knowledge beyond 2-3 top prospects from each team and is just grabbing names off a dated list.

[paul253]

If they tried to demand Hiura and Burnes they won't get far. Very few teams in baseball have 2 prospects that can match Hiura/Burnes

 

Oh come on. The guy has a sub 3 career ERA over close to 800 innings and may be the leading NL Cy Young candidate right now. On top of that we’d not only get him for the rest of this year but all of next year and all of the year after that. The Mets should not only expect to get Hiura and Burnes but should also, rightfully, expect to get more. Burnes ceiling is nowhere near that of Degrom and he’s done all of nothing in the major leagues yet. I’d be hesitant to trade Hiura just because we seem to lack very many high ceiling prospects right now, particularly positional prospects, and because he seems like the real deal. But you can’t acquire a talent like Degrom or Syndergaard with a bunch of mid level prospects.

 

As far as teams that could match what we could offer: The Braves for sure could. Hell Atlanta probably has enough to get them both if they wanted. I think if things really came down to it they’d be our top competition, though they might have to pay a little more being in the same division as the Mets.

[adambr2]

Some of these offers have no basis in actual reality and are complete wishful thinking in my opinion.

 

The Mets would probably ask for Hader coming back for DeGrom or Syndergaard. At a minimum they would rightfully tell us to piss off for any offer that didn't include Hiura + one of Burnes or Peralta as a starting point, as Trwi said. Getting DeGrom without including either of Hader or Hiura just has no chance of happening.

 

Gleyber Torres for DeGrom is way closer than a lot of these. A low top 100 pitcher as the headline piece for a legit TOR starter with a 2.81 career ERA, 10K/9 and nearly 3 years of control? Come on.

[OnaBadger58]

If they tried to demand Hiura and Burnes they won't get far. Very few teams in baseball have 2 prospects that can match Hiura/Burnes

 

Oh come on. The guy has a sub 3 career ERA over close to 800 innings and may be the leading NL Cy Young candidate right now. On top of that we’d not only get him for the rest of this year but all of next year and all of the year after that. The Mets should not only expect to get Hiura and Burnes but should also, rightfully, expect to get more. Burnes ceiling is nowhere near that of Degrom and he’s done all of nothing in the major leagues yet. I’d be hesitant to trade Hiura just because we seem to lack very many high ceiling prospects right now, particularly positional prospects, and because he seems like the real deal. But you can’t acquire a talent like Degrom or Syndergaard with a bunch of mid level prospects.

 

Agreed with everything here. The Mets would (and should) be asking for the moon for deGrom. The Brewers cannot get deGrom without giving up Hiura and Burnes/Peralta. Personally, I'd rather keep our prospects. Hiura is darn near untouchable for me at this point.

[Madhawk23]

Yeah I'm not doing this

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/jacob-degrom-trade-fits-and-possibilities/c-281132180?tcid=tw_article_281132180

 

The writer did a good job picking the teams likely to target him with the prospect capital. I ruled out the Braves as I think they are more likely to keep their arms for now and potentially trade one or two down the line for impact bats. I also don't think the Rockies stay in it long enough that trade for Degrom makes sense.

 

I also think this guy wildly overvalues Degrom. If I'm the Dodgers, no way am I giving up Buehler for anything. He has frontline starter written all over him and is already pitching like one, why trade 6 cheap years of him for 2+ years of Degrom? Makes no sense. Someone also may want to tell this guy that Peralta is a better prospect than Burnes at this point. I feel like this guy has minimal knowledge beyond 2-3 top prospects from each team and is just grabbing names off a dated list.

 

Yeah, there is just no way I'm giving up that entire package for deGrom. I'd have a hard time giving up both Hiura and Burnes, nevertheless both of them PLUS two of Peralta/Ray/Gatewood. Now, if we could get deGrom for Ray, Burnes and one of Ortiz/Gatewood - then sign me up for a deal like that. But I doubt we'd be the Mets highest offer in that scenario.

[paul253]

If I decided I’d be ok moving Hiura, which I’m hesitant to do, I’d make an offer of something like Hiura, Burnes or Peralta (they can pick) then Phipps and Lara. Obviously Hiura and Burnes are the headliners. Phillips is the major league ready piece and Lara is the talented “lottery ticket” as everyone likes to say. I’d consider Ray as opposed to Phillips if they preferred because he just hasn’t shown me much yet but I’d prefer to give up Phillips I think.

[Dadbauer]

I would do it, just because deGrom is a special kind of talent and could really put the Brewers over the top. We don't have any no doubt prospects like the Braves, Yankees, etc. have (and I know of course no prospect is "no doubt" but we have more quantity than high end quality. Even Hiura who SEEMS like a no doubter has his share of doubts - does he stay at 2B? Is his arm healthy? Will is K% go down? DeGrom is about as sure of a thing as there is for a pitcher who is available for a few years.

[KeithStone53151]

If I decided I’d be ok moving Hiura, which I’m hesitant to do, I’d make an offer of something like Hiura, Burnes or Peralta (they can pick) then Phipps and Lara. Obviously Hiura and Burnes are the headliners. Phillips is the major league ready piece and Lara is the talented “lottery ticket” as everyone likes to say. I’d consider Ray as opposed to Phillips if they preferred because he just hasn’t shown me much yet but I’d prefer to give up Phillips I think.

 

I don't see another team beating this offer. I view this as a slightly better package than what Chicago got for Sale, Burnes is obviously less than Kopech but Phillips and Lara are far and away better than the other pieces in that trade. I think the Brewers can create a package and avoid sending Hiura. That package would definitely then have to include Burnes and Peralta. Additional good pieces of Phillips and Ray or Phillips and Medeiros probably are enough.

 

And FYI, I don't think Atlanta goes for Degrom simply because I think they'd be more inclined to utilize their young SP than trade them for established pitching. They might trade them for a controllable bat, but not pitching. I think the obvious teams vying for SP at the deadline that can compete with our prospect pool are LAD, NYY, and PHI.

 

And on a side, it seems like many of you seem to think there is a virtual cliff beyond our top 3 or 4 prospects. It's as if you see Hiura, Burnes, and Peralta as having value and everything beyond that is filler. We have a very very deep farm system, Ray would probably crack the top 5 of a lot of teams prospect lists right now. Peralta would probably be number 1 for close to 10 teams and is probably between 2 and 4 for us. You get the idea.