Syndergaard and deGrom

[KeithStone53151]

Peralta, Burnes and Ray isn't close. Sorry, that's a package that can easily be beaten and not enough to make the Mets say "yes" even if it's the best package offered.

 

Not enough, not even close, no counter on what you think "enough" is. What do you think is close? Hader, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Ray, Phillips, Medeiros, Nelson, Arcia, Cain, Yelich...probably still not enough eh?

 

Saying it isn't close because it can be beaten is silly. Any package can be beaten. Will it be though? Degrom has 2 years of team control that will likely be very expensive. You don't definitively know that the Mets wouldn't consider that package. And you definitely seem to think prospects are being valued as they were 10 years ago...not how they are valued now. 2 MLB ready pitchers with #2 upside and the 5th overall pick from 2 years ago that is playing well and has a ton of helium...that's a pretty darn good return for 2+ expensive years of a pitcher.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura is going in a DeGrom trade. They need an elite headliner and volume won’t be a viable substitute. They are probably looking for a top 10 type anyhow so we might not have enough.

 

What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.

[Warning Track Power]

I wonder if Stearns could pull off something like the following for deGrom...

 

If the Brewers include Hiura, they hold onto Burnes. However, the Mets can have their choice of two of the following Peralta, Woodruff, Ortiz. For their final piece, assuming they want an MLB-ready piece, they can choose one of Santana and Phillips.

 

Your package for deGrom is Hiura, Peralta, Woodruff and Santana.

 

While I am not sure it gets it done, I would not be willing to include Hiura AND Burnes. Maybe if that package doesn't work for deGrom, maybe that package gets you Syndergaard.

[Boomer5]

Hiura is going in a DeGrom trade. They need an elite headliner and volume won’t be a viable substitute. They are probably looking for a top 10 type anyhow so we might not have enough.

 

What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.

 

Here’s why our typical lowball offers on here don’t work:

 

1. Low supply, in DeGroms case nearly one like him; a true ace with lots of control who is actually on the market.

2. Super High demand

3. Most teams want a headliner, not a volume package in a return for an ace.

4. We, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura is going in a DeGrom trade. They need an elite headliner and volume won’t be a viable substitute. They are probably looking for a top 10 type anyhow so we might not have enough.

 

What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.

 

Here’s why our typical lowball offers on here don’t work:

 

1. Low supply, in DeGroms case nearly one like him; a true ace with lots of control who is actually on the market.

2. Super High demand

3. Most teams want a headliner, not a volume package in a return for an ace.

4. We, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome.

 

Again, look at the Chris Sale trade. Our comparable package to Sale would be something like Hiura, Peralta, and low end prospects. Hiura is roughly equal to Moncada, Peralta is probably not as valuable as Kopech. BUT, Sale's contract was much more team friendly, included more team control, and he was a better and younger pitcher than Degrom(up until what Degrom is doing this year). And at the time, most people thought the Red Sox significantly overpaid for Sale. All signs point to the Degrom return being significantly less than the Sale return.

 

Or as I've noted, the Mets can wait until the offseason when no team is feeling desperate about reaching the post season and most everyone is healthy. Or they can wait until next deadline, when Degrom likely won't be pitching as well and he has less and more expensive team control. Whatever offer they get this deadline, will likely be the best offer they get for Degrom. Whether that's the offer I outlined or not is definitely up for debate.

[splitterpfj]

The Mets are the ones with the ace,”plus two” - if I’m them, I’m not shy with the ask - the market will be plenty strong in November.

 

(Except, of course, it’s the Mets, so deGrom will get hurt in September)

[TooLiveBrew]

The Mets are the ones with the ace,”plus two” - if I’m them, I’m not shy with the ask - the market will be plenty strong in November.

 

(Except, of course, it’s the Mets, so deGrom will get hurt in September)

Syndergaard just went on the 10-day DL with Hand Foot & Mouth disease. No I'm not joking.

 

He apparently picked it up at a baseball camp for kids. Does nice gesture, gets random disease & more DL time. Mets are cursed!

[TURBO]

or, Syndergaard is cursed.

 

Dude has pitched 90+ innings since 2016.

 

Aquiring him would make me REALLY nervous considering what we would have to give up.

[badger3034]

What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.

 

Here’s why our typical lowball offers on here don’t work:

 

1. Low supply, in DeGroms case nearly one like him; a true ace with lots of control who is actually on the market.

2. Super High demand

3. Most teams want a headliner, not a volume package in a return for an ace.

4. We, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome.

 

Again, look at the Chris Sale trade. Our comparable package to Sale would be something like Hiura, Peralta, and low end prospects. Hiura is roughly equal to Moncada, Peralta is probably not as valuable as Kopech. BUT, Sale's contract was much more team friendly, included more team control, and he was a better and younger pitcher than Degrom(up until what Degrom is doing this year). And at the time, most people thought the Red Sox significantly overpaid for Sale. All signs point to the Degrom return being significantly less than the Sale return.

 

Or as I've noted, the Mets can wait until the offseason when no team is feeling desperate about reaching the post season and most everyone is healthy. Or they can wait until next deadline, when Degrom likely won't be pitching as well and he has less and more expensive team control. Whatever offer they get this deadline, will likely be the best offer they get for Degrom. Whether that's the offer I outlined or not is definitely up for debate.

 

 

As a previous poster in one of these quotes mentioned, we, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome. Keston Hiura does not have the potential that Yoan Moncada has. Yes, Moncada is having a down year, but I'm pretty sure every high level exec would think his potential is higher. Also, Peralta is not Kopech, it's not an equal trade. Sale is a better pitcher, but the Mets are going to be looking for a higher price than what we'd be hoping for.

[mattyo]

What if they don't get that top 10 type and they wait, and then Degrom pitches more like a low 3s era(which is his career norm) rather than cy young caliber season...while the Mets still suck. I highly highly doubt both Burnes and Peralta would be on the table around this time next year in that case. Partially because Degroms value is in the tank and partially because they'll both probably be in our MLB rotation. This is likely peak value for Degrom. Far more often than not, holding your player because you don't like the offers yields a much lower return...just ask the Rays and the likely offers they are now fielding for Archer.

 

Here’s why our typical lowball offers on here don’t work:

 

1. Low supply, in DeGroms case nearly one like him; a true ace with lots of control who is actually on the market.

2. Super High demand

3. Most teams want a headliner, not a volume package in a return for an ace.

4. We, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome.

 

Again, look at the Chris Sale trade. Our comparable package to Sale would be something like Hiura, Peralta, and low end prospects. Hiura is roughly equal to Moncada, Peralta is probably not as valuable as Kopech. BUT, Sale's contract was much more team friendly, included more team control, and he was a better and younger pitcher than Degrom(up until what Degrom is doing this year). And at the time, most people thought the Red Sox significantly overpaid for Sale. All signs point to the Degrom return being significantly less than the Sale return.

 

Or as I've noted, the Mets can wait until the offseason when no team is feeling desperate about reaching the post season and most everyone is healthy. Or they can wait until next deadline, when Degrom likely won't be pitching as well and he has less and more expensive team control. Whatever offer they get this deadline, will likely be the best offer they get for Degrom. Whether that's the offer I outlined or not is definitely up for debate.

 

 

As a previous poster in one of these quotes mentioned, we, like most fanbases, tend to value our prospects way higher than their likely outcome. Keston Hiura does not have the potential that Yoan Moncada has. Yes, Moncada is having a down year, but I'm pretty sure every high level exec would think his potential is higher. Also, Peralta is not Kopech, it's not an equal trade. Sale is a better pitcher, but the Mets are going to be looking for a higher price than what we'd be hoping for.

 

 

Beat me to it. Moncada was a consensus top 3 prospect in baseball, and Kopech was a top 25 guy when they were traded. Hiura and Peralta don't compare.

[superfly]

Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

[NievesNoNO]

DeGrom is a game changer. If the Mets would take Peralta and Hiura +, count me in. I don't know what the + would be but he's one of the few players where if I'm Stearns I open the prospect book and say "Choose"! He's also controllable which is a super big deal. If something goes wrong and the Brewers need to sell after this season, you can recover some of what you gave. Also a long shot, but an extension could maaaybee be had.

[Eye Black]

Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

 

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50

 

Edit: For the record I wouldn’t even rank him nearly as high as BP just did, but I also wouldn’t bet against him developing into a good major league hitter.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

 

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50

 

Spot on, Hiura's hit tool is better than Moncada's...the prospect guru's tend to get carried away on tools and sometimes forget that a guy has to hit or all those tools don't matter nearly as much. Don't believe me on that, I present Keon Broxton/Brett Phillips/Lewis Brinson/Monte Harrison.

 

It's not often you see a prospect come up with a fairly high ceiling but also a very very high floor. I don't think you'd find a single prospect guy who thinks Hiura's floor is lower than a decent regular at 2b. All those guys above could have not made the majors, or be a 220/230 hitter with enough tools to be a 4th OF. Hiura is also more likely to reach his all-star ceiling than most of the players above. Daniel Murphy is a great comp for Hiura, and he's one of the highest paid 2b in baseball for a reason.

[adambr2]

I think Peralta is being overrated more than Hiura.

 

Look, I love Freddy Peralta, who doesn't? But he is just not a comparable prospect to Kopech. Kopech is one of the top prospects in baseball and probably has the best fastball in the minors.

 

What Freddy is doing is great, but there's a reason he was more of an organizational top 10 coming into this year, not an MLB top 10 like Kopech. What he does best (extension and deception), may not be something that teams project as a top of the rotation guy. How many aces out there operate in the low 90s? Who are these comparables?

 

I hope he can keep it up. He's done extremely well. But here are the first 9 career starts for another Brewer starter:

 

7 IP, 1 ER

5 IP, 2 ER

6 IP, 4 ER

5 IP, 0 ER

6 IP, 2 ER

8 IP, 1 ER

9 IP, 1 ER

7 IP, 1 ER

6 IP, 2 ER

 

That pitcher was Taylor Jungmann.

 

So I do think while we should enjoy what Peralta is bringing in his starts, we need to keep it in perspective for now, and no one is going to give us Kopech comparable value for him.

[badger3034]

Hiura is being severely overvalued by a portion of this fan base in general.

Well, in my opinion, he is being undervalued by some as well.

 

And for those that believe he is overvalued, it isn’t like it is just solely the fan base that is high on him right now: BP Mid-Season Top 50

 

Edit: For the record I wouldn’t even rank him nearly as high as BP just did, but I also wouldn’t bet against him developing into a good major league hitter.

 

I dont think anybody was attempting to say he wouldn't be a good baseball player in the future. Just that hiura does not equal moancada, and Peralta does not equal kopech in trade value. Just was making the point that you shouldn't expect as big of a haul for those 2

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

At the end of the day, and I am sure this has been mentioned, you in theory have Peralta, Burnes, Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Chacin, and Anderson going into spring next year. Unless you plan on having a 7 man rotation or keeping Burnes in the pen (which they said they weren't gonna do) it makes a ton of sense to trade one of the kids in a deal to get a pitcher of deGrom's caliber. Not necessarily as the main piece, but a piece

[MrTPlush]

Things that are kind of a given:

 

Trading a pitcher and trading Brett Phillips. All of these pitchers and Brett Phillips will not be here opening day in 2019.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I dont think anybody was attempting to say he wouldn't be a good baseball player in the future. Just that hiura does not equal moancada, and Peralta does not equal kopech in trade value.

 

At some point, the MLB #'s a young player produces have to start trumping where that player was ranked as a prospect. I'm not meaning this to slight Moncada, as I still think he'll be a very good MLB player. However, Moncada basically started as a top 2-3 prospect from the day he signed that huge bonus with Boston after defecting from Cuba. Those prospect rankings, even towards the top, are very subjective and oftentimes are influenced by popularity contests and timing when a player is knocking on the MLB door compared to when other more talented players get drafted/signed moreso than onfield results. From a raw tools standpoint focused on physical attributes, there's no question Moncada is more impressive than Hiura. He's got to reduce that 33% MLB K rate if he's going to take that next step as a quality big league player. Hiura's hit tool makes the two much more comparable as overall prospects, however Moncada should rightfully still be considered to have the higher upside.

 

Regarding Kopech, has anyone gushing about his big fastball actually looked at his pitching #'s? He's got a big K rate but also a big walk rate, and he's gotten hit around quite a bit in his first AAA season. I realize his ceiling is higher due to that fastball and he appears to have a good slider, but it looks like he still needs to work alot on command and developing a 3rd pitch to truly be considered an Ace-caliber pitching prospect. He's rated highly because of that fastball, but so was Jose Capellan.

 

Back on topic, Hiura and Burnes headlining a trade package for Degrom is absolutely something the Mets would strongly consider - however if it becomes known that Degrom is realistically available and the Mets aren't stupid, another one of the big market teams with a loaded farm and a need for a frontline starter would be more willing to completely gut their system and trump the Brewers' best offer. The Yankees would be positioned to actually offer a combo of highly rated prospects and young MLB talent considering that they could be going after Machado or Harper this coming offseason. In fact, the Mets could probably get more value in dealing Degrom this offseason because contending teams this year wouldn't be as adverse to trading MLB assets in the winter they could plan on replacing via free agency.

[splitterpfj]

Your arguments involving Chris Sale reinforce why the Mets should move deGrom right now.

 

Sale was 27, and signed for three more years - deGrom is 30, and signed for two after this one.

 

It doesn’t matter who Moncada is - it’s what the market will pay at the time - deGrom has never pitched better, is older, and offers less control with each start.

 

New York - it’s time.

[Boomer5]

Things that are kind of a given:

 

Trading a pitcher and trading Brett Phillips. All of these pitchers and Brett Phillips will not be here opening day in 2019.

 

I agree. Phillips and Ortiz seem like obvious trade chips. Obviously they weren’t enough for a Machado but they should be enough for lesser pick ups.

[rickh150]

Your arguments involving Chris Sale reinforce why the Mets should move deGrom right now.

 

Sale was 27, and signed for three more years - deGrom is 30, and signed for two after this one.

 

It doesn’t matter who Moncada is - it’s what the market will pay at the time - deGrom has never pitched better, is older, and offers less control with each start.

 

New York - it’s time.

 

As much as we need him, we won't feel comfortable parting with what it'll take to get him..... not in this market.

[Roderick]

Don't know if better to start new thread or not, but thinking next year already -

 

Would Age 31-33 C.Anderson 3yrs/$24M (Mets need a starter back?), Hiura, Ray, Supak and Ashby be enough for two seasons of age 31-32 DeGrom at arby cost (guessing $24M?) plus hopefully a qualifying offer draft pick at the end?

 

Rotation: DeGrom, Chacin, Burnes. Davies as probable. Nelson, Woodruff, F.Peralta and Guerra as possibles. Wilkerson, Derby, Houser, Brown as backups.

[homer]

I think Wheeler might be a better target (again) because he won't cost an arm and a leg.

[TURBO]

I think Wheeler might be a better target (again) because he won't cost an arm and a leg.

 

Judging by his second half, I think you might be surprised what he'd command. The guy has been stellar!