Syndergaard and deGrom

[TURBO]

I have no interest in shelling out payroll dollars and prospect capital to help a guy rehab injuries for 3.5 years and pitch sparingly. That does us no good.

 

I can't wrap my head around the fact that people are completely ignoring his injury history, and are willing to deal our 2B of the future for him, plus our two top pitching prospects, one who is already paying dividends, and the other who is knocking on the door!

 

I can't believe so many are so willing to ruin our pipeline for a guy as unreliable as Syndergaard.

 

When he is healthy, he is an ACE, when he isn't (the past 2 seasons) he just occupies a place on our DL.

 

We can't afford the risk, we just can't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Syndergaard pitched 183 innings at age 23 and what do you know, he's hurt 2 starts out of every 3 since then. I get the notion that it's not "chronic" injuries but it's not that simple. Over the course of many years, the body can change to handle constant stressors, but Syndergaard and Harvey didn't go through that process. Harvey had an injury that showed up in diagnostics and Syndergaard does not, but I wouldn't be surprised if an arthroscopic procedure showed a little more wear and tear than there should be.

 

The other thing is that Syndergaard just strikes me as a "tight" pitcher with more muscle than necessary, at the expense of flexibility. He doesn't have the smooth, effortless mechanics of deGrom. He reminds me of Strassburg and I definitely think he will be remembered as another prodigy who looked like a sure-fire hall-of-famer but burned out fast and never lived up to his potential due to injuries.

 

Syndergaard is the more exciting name, but DeGrom is the better, more consistent pitcher. I hope he's the target.

[Boomer5]

Syndergaard pitched 183 innings at age 23 and what do you know, he's hurt 2 starts out of every 3 since then. I get the notion that it's not "chronic" injuries but it's not that simple. Over the course of many years, the body can change to handle constant stressors, but Syndergaard and Harvey didn't go through that process. Harvey had an injury that showed up in diagnostics and Syndergaard does not, but I wouldn't be surprised if an arthroscopic procedure showed a little more wear and tear than there should be.

 

The other thing is that Syndergaard just strikes me as a "tight" pitcher with more muscle than necessary, at the expense of flexibility. He doesn't have the smooth, effortless mechanics of deGrom. He reminds me of Strassburg and I definitely think he will be remembered as another prodigy who looked like a sure-fire hall-of-famer but burned out fast and never lived up to his potential due to injuries.

 

Syndergaard is the more exciting name, but DeGrom is the better, more consistent pitcher. I hope he's the target.

 

Agreed. DeGrom is the guy we should be targeting. Thor is really only a name at this point and we can’t afford to take a risk on a guy who won’t be on the mound every 5 days.

 

I would assume the Brewers have no interest in Thor at his price point.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Syndergaard is the more exciting name, but DeGrom is the better, more consistent pitcher. I hope he's the target.

 

For sure.

[MrTPlush]

I get being concerned over Thor’s recent injuries, but jeez talk about overblown. Just a name? Come on now. That guy is one of the better starters in the game when on the mound. That guy is going to pitch a lot in the next 3.5 years and put up better numbers than anyone we have right now by a mile.

 

Again, if you think he is too unreliable for the assumed price totally get it. Let’s not act like the guy is on his 3rd elbow surgery and isn’t putting up elite stats when healthy though.

 

 

I’m not sure who I would prefer if the price was similar. I’d almost roll the dice on Noah. The extra year of control would be beneficial and he is cheaper. Though I really can’t complain with three postseason runs with deGrom either. It would really come down to our success in those three years. If we win a World Series with deGrom anyone going to complain? Hiura can be the next great 2B bat for all I care. He could put us over the top. Or maybe not...that’s the risk. Don’t know what is better in the present.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I get being concerned over Thor’s recent injuries, but jeez talk about overblown. Just a name? Come on now. That guy is one of the better starters in the game when on the mound. That guy is going to pitch a lot in the next 3.5 years and put up better numbers than anyone we have right now by a mile.

 

Again, if you think he is too unreliable for the assumed price totally get it. Let’s not act like the guy is on his 3rd elbow surgery and isn’t putting up elite stats when healthy though.

 

 

I’m not sure who I would prefer if the price was similar. I’d almost roll the dice on Noah. The extra year of control would be beneficial and he is cheaper. Though I really can’t complain with three postseason runs with deGrom either. It would really come down to our success in those three years. If we win a World Series with deGrom anyone going to complain? Hiura can be the next great 2B bat for all I care. He could put us over the top. Or maybe not...that’s the risk. Don’t know what is better in the present.

 

I would love to have Syndergaard as well. I was simply doing an apples to apples comparison to deGrom, and I'd rather have deGrom. Of course, it depends on what would be going back, but if the return packages are equal, give me deGrom, even with one less year of control. Both of them are much better than what we are throwing out there.

[Boomer5]

I get being concerned over Thor’s recent injuries, but jeez talk about overblown. Just a name? Come on now. That guy is one of the better starters in the game when on the mound. That guy is going to pitch a lot in the next 3.5 years and put up better numbers than anyone we have right now by a mile.

 

Again, if you think he is too unreliable for the assumed price totally get it. Let’s not act like the guy is on his 3rd elbow surgery and isn’t putting up elite stats when healthy though.

 

His stats and stuff are irrelevant if he can’t stay healthy. And he can’t.

 

Milwaukee can’t take a chance on something who isn’t a true ace based on availability. I’m pretty sure DS feels the same way.

 

A skill that gets overlooked is availability but make no mistake, it’s absolutely a skill every bit as important as his other stats.

[LouisEly]

You have to discount injury risk for player value, and because of that the Mets aren't going to get good value for Syndergaard right now. Thus I highly doubt he gets moved this season.

[Humans Need Water]

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

 

There is no way in hell Arcia headlines a deal for Syndergard. Dubon is more valuable at this point, and do you think the Mets would value HIM as a centerpiece? Use your head.

ok Dad, I'll use my head next time.

 

Andrelton Simmons, coming off THREE straight not good offensive seasons (cumulative slash line of 252/301/658) with 5/53 remaining on his contract, brought back the #19 overall prospect (mlb.com) in Sean Newcomb, who made his MLB debut less than 1.5yrs later. Arcia is posting horrific numbers at the plate this year and even with that included his career totals are 246/293/654. Simmons just completed his age 25 season when traded. Arcia is 23, controlled for 4yrs (insanely cheap compared to Simmons contract), is a stud defensively (not Simmons level as nobody is) and, like Simmons his rookie year, has showed what he's capable of offensively already. Arcia was a Top 10 overall prospect for a reason. The ability is there and when he gets back on track offensively he's a borderline AS caliber player at his position (like last year - at age 22). Sweeping everything under the rug except his current offensive output to determine his value is absurd.

 

So, like I said, I'm calling Arcia in a package to the Mets if a trade happens. I can't tell you who else would potentially be involved (definitely not Hiura) as I don't know what Arcia's exact value is but he absolutely has plenty of value. I have a gut feeling that rumors will fly around hard core with us strongly being connected to deGrom and Thor while Stearns is working even harder dealing for Stroman. I don't think the Mets are the ultimate play. We certainly don't need to use Hiura to land Stroman either.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

 

There is no way in hell Arcia headlines a deal for Syndergard. Dubon is more valuable at this point, and do you think the Mets would value HIM as a centerpiece? Use your head.

ok Dad, I'll use my head next time.

 

Andrelton Simmons, coming off THREE straight not good offensive seasons (cumulative slash line of 252/301/658) with 5/53 remaining on his contract, brought back the #19 overall prospect (mlb.com) in Sean Newcomb, who made his MLB debut less than 1.5yrs later. Arcia is posting horrific numbers at the plate this year and even with that included his career totals are 246/293/654. Simmons just completed his age 25 season when traded. Arcia is 23, controlled for 4yrs (insanely cheap compared to Simmons contract), is a stud defensively (not Simmons level as nobody is) and, like Simmons his rookie year, has showed what he's capable of offensively already. Arcia was a Top 10 overall prospect for a reason. The ability is there and when he gets back on track offensively he's a borderline AS caliber player at his position (like last year - at age 22). Sweeping everything under the rug except his current offensive output to determine his value is absurd.

 

So, like I said, I'm calling Arcia in a package to the Mets if a trade happens. I can't tell you who else would potentially be involved (definitely not Hiura) as I don't know what Arcia's exact value is but he absolutely has plenty of value. I have a gut feeling that rumors will fly around hard core with us strongly being connected to deGrom and Thor while Stearns is working even harder dealing for Stroman. I don't think the Mets are the ultimate play. We certainly don't need to use Hiura to land Stroman either.

 

That was a really solid reply to a rather snarky post. Bravo.

 

I think many here are underselling Arcia's value as well. 23-year-old Gold Glove-caliber SS do not grow on trees. That said, I simply cannot imagine the Brewers giving up on him unless he is a headliner for someone like deGrom.

[KeithStone53151]

ok Dad, I'll use my head next time.

 

Andrelton Simmons, coming off THREE straight not good offensive seasons (cumulative slash line of 252/301/658) with 5/53 remaining on his contract, brought back the #19 overall prospect (mlb.com) in Sean Newcomb, who made his MLB debut less than 1.5yrs later. Arcia is posting horrific numbers at the plate this year and even with that included his career totals are 246/293/654. Simmons just completed his age 25 season when traded. Arcia is 23, controlled for 4yrs (insanely cheap compared to Simmons contract), is a stud defensively (not Simmons level as nobody is) and, like Simmons his rookie year, has showed what he's capable of offensively already. Arcia was a Top 10 overall prospect for a reason. The ability is there and when he gets back on track offensively he's a borderline AS caliber player at his position (like last year - at age 22). Sweeping everything under the rug except his current offensive output to determine his value is absurd.

 

So, like I said, I'm calling Arcia in a package to the Mets if a trade happens. I can't tell you who else would potentially be involved (definitely not Hiura) as I don't know what Arcia's exact value is but he absolutely has plenty of value. I have a gut feeling that rumors will fly around hard core with us strongly being connected to deGrom and Thor while Stearns is working even harder dealing for Stroman. I don't think the Mets are the ultimate play. We certainly don't need to use Hiura to land Stroman either.

 

Regarding Simmons, you can initially argue that the Angels were stupid and vastly overpaid for Simmons. Why would you trade so much for a guy that seemingly is a lock for elite defense and 650ish ops...as he seemingly leveled off? The other side, is that the Angels scouted or saw something they could fix...or saw that he was getting unlucky...whatever it was, they did a fantastic job of landing Simmons and likely won the trade. Maybe Arcia doesn't figure it out and bounce out of it like Simmons did(and many have as they approach their mid-late 20s), but simply saying he's having a bad year and therefore has 0 value is pure nonsense. Arcia isn't a rental where the next 2 months are all that matters. You'd have 4-5 years of cheap team control on him.

 

I think it's fairly obvious that Hiura holds more value than Arcia right now. One bat is a virtual lock to be successful at this level, the other has the plus defense but may or may not hit. I think you need some good secondary pieces if you headline with Arcia, but it's not an unreasonable thought. It really depends how the Mets value him. If their scouts see something they can fix in his mechanics, he'll very likely hit. His bat to ball skills are tremendous, his biggest problem is pitch recognition caused by bad mechanics.

[Humans Need Water]

If the Mets believe in Arcia like they believe in Rosario then it absolutely could be worth it for them to have Arcia headline the trade, especially if they're nervous about Thor's health moving forward. Arcia/Rosario/Conforto up the middle for 4yrs sounds like it could be pretty good and they don't have a SS/2b in the pipeline moving forward (Cecchini will end up a utility). They're not going to replace Thor's performance so it's about capitalizing on strong talent at several positions to make the team as a whole better.

 

I don't think the Brewers want to part with Arcia but I can see them doing so because someone like Dubon is ready and he has the potential to be good too. Replacing him with Arcia then adding Hiura at 2b and Thor to the rotation improved the team overall and that's the end game.

[MrTPlush]

Market value for deGrom isn’t just $25mil a year or so. Market value would likely be well over $100mil. Let me know when we can sign a deGrom for $25mil a year for 2.5 years. You aren’t getting a guy like deGrom in FA at his current price and lack of lengthy control spanning into his retirement.

 

Even at a bigger price tag he is still a massive bargain compared to getting someone in FA because we don’t have to be tied to him until he is 35+.

[Boomer5]

The Brewers would be seriously selling low on Arcia.

 

We really don’t want to see a Segura or Scooter type of stat line with someone else.

[homer]

I get being concerned over Thor’s recent injuries, but jeez talk about overblown. Just a name? Come on now. That guy is one of the better starters in the game when on the mound. That guy is going to pitch a lot in the next 3.5 years and put up better numbers than anyone we have right now by a mile.

 

Again, if you think he is too unreliable for the assumed price totally get it. Let’s not act like the guy is on his 3rd elbow surgery and isn’t putting up elite stats when healthy though.

 

His stats and stuff are irrelevant if he can’t stay healthy. And he can’t.

.

 

I think there's a difference between he "can't" stay healthy and he "hasn't" stayed healthy. Unless someone can give me an example of a guy who had lat and/or non-blister finger issues throughout his career I think Thor is worth the risk.

[homer]

 

That was a really solid reply to a rather snarky post. Bravo.

.

 

 

Agreed. Thank you for not escalating.

 

Let's keep it civil, please.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers would be seriously selling low on Arcia.

 

We really don’t want to see a Segura or Scooter type of stat line with someone else.

 

Actually, if we traded Arcia for a SP...I would still hope he does well. Same way I'm happy to see Scooter and Segura and others do well when they leave(only when they play the other 28 teams of course). I don't root against our guys hoping to win the trade. Honestly, it sucks that the Red Sox ruined Thornburgs arm with their bogus shoulder program. I liked Thornburg and wanted him to do well.

 

Anyways regarding Degroms value, the market for top notch SP has been set in the roughly $25 million range. See Strasburg, Arrieta, etc. Scherzer got $30 million, but so much was deferred the present value was closer to $25 million per. I can understand the argument that a majority of that value should be allocated to prime years. Maybe his prime year value is closer to $30 or $35 million per year. Hard to argue it much higher than that though.

[homer]

Thor's finger doesn't bother me at all. The lat? If it's a chronic thing then yes it bothers me. Doesn't appear to be one though based on this article:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/lat-injuries-in-major-league-baseball/c-230442514

[markedman5]

Mets not moving either guy until off season

 

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/mets-have-moved-past-idea-of-trading-degrom-syndergaard/284364018

[paul253]

I wonder what it would take to get Matz. He seems to be having a nice bounce back year but admittedly I know nothing about his injury history. I assume he could be had without including Hiura.

[NievesNoNO]

The Mets back to their typical games I see. I'd be hard pressed to trade either if I was them too. Just move on then; focus on teams that are motivated to move guys.

[pacopete4]

This report makes me happy.

[bill hAll Star]

I wonder what it would take to get Matz. He seems to be having a nice bounce back year but admittedly I know nothing about his injury history. I assume he could be had without including Hiura.

 

He's OK, but he's another guy that will cost some prospect capital and is not a major upgrade over what we already have. He's somewhat of a lefty Chacin in production. He puts the ball on the ground more, but Chacin still does a better job of keeping the ball in the yard.

 

If we're looking for someone, IMO, it's someone that's a one year stopgap either on par with (for insurance) or better than Chacin, Suter, Anderson, etc. I think it should be more in the realm of "better than." I could see adding another one of those arms, but with Burnes getting closer (yes, bullpen for now) and Davies maybe available later, we should be OK on starting pitching for the season with guys that can put up 5, maybe 6 solid innings before turning it over to Hader.

 

Matz is a multiple year control guy, so that completely takes him off my list. He'll cost more due to that and I don't think we need to worry about acquiring pitching over the next few years.

 

It's probably an ace or bust in a trade and I think we'll just stand pat or take a very cheap insurance policy starter to log some innings in August/September.

[Roderick]

 

It's probably an ace or bust in a trade and I think we'll just stand pat or take a very cheap insurance policy starter to log some innings in August/September.

 

I don't even see the need for a insurance policy starter and don't see where we would make room for one. We have depth (Woodruff, Davies, Miley, Burnes). We have a decent starting rotation. We just don't have an ace.

 

Unless someone gets hurt, we either need a clear upgrade (Mets pitchers, ??) or you might as well spend our assets elsewhere.

 

Curious if people think that Mikolas is what he has shown or if he will come back down to earth? If the Cards fall behind even further by the end of July.....

[KeithStone53151]

 

It's probably an ace or bust in a trade and I think we'll just stand pat or take a very cheap insurance policy starter to log some innings in August/September.

 

I don't even see the need for a insurance policy starter and don't see where we would make room for one. We have depth (Woodruff, Davies, Miley, Burnes). We have a decent starting rotation. We just don't have an ace.

 

Unless someone gets hurt, we either need a clear upgrade (Mets pitchers, ??) or you might as well spend our assets elsewhere.

 

Curious if people think that Mikolas is what he has shown or if he will come back down to earth? If the Cards fall behind even further by the end of July.....

 

At this very moment, our insurance policy is Woodruff. After that it's Wilkerson, Burnes, other guys that you really don't want starting meaningful games. Heck I'd argue you don't want Suter or Woodruff starting meaningful games down the stretch. Bringing in someone like Hamels or Happ only makes sense if you don't think Nelson or Davies will pitch for an extended stretch(late August at the earliest). Those guys aren't really upgrades to a majority of our rotation and are roughly more of the same(I prefer Hamels to Happ by a wide margin). Stroman, Archer, Degrom, Syndergaard...are the only 4 I identify that could be true upgrades(could be, no guarantee...especially Archer).