Syndergaard and deGrom

[paul253]

Easy there. He didn’t say Arcia was headlining the deal, just as part of it. I imagine Burnes and Peralta would still be the headliners.

 

And I agree Arcias value is low but didn’t Dubon tear an ACL? Can’t imagine that helped his value.

[adambr2]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

[KeithStone53151]

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

 

There is no way in hell Arcia headlines a deal for Syndergard. Dubon is more valuable at this point, and do you think the Mets would value HIM as a centerpiece? Use your head.

 

Um, what? Dubon is not even close to more valuable than Arcia. First off, he's out for the season injured...second, he isn't remotely close to the defender Arcia is. He's seriously struggling at the plate, but he's also only 23 and has a lot of experience at the MLB level. There's a very good chance he comes around.

 

I still think it's highly unlikely Degrom or Syndergaard move at the deadline. I think they'll want better than the Chris Sale return and nobody will offer it. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Regarding Hiura, he's as close to "can't miss" as it gets based on all scouting available. The bat is there, he's going to hit. He's not like one of the incredible toolsy prospects with significant holes in their swing that simply may never hit at the mlb level...he's almost certainly going to hit. If he can play an adequate 2nd base, which most reports say he can, his floor is a very solid hitting 2b at the mlb level. Very minimal risk in him.

[KeithStone53151]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

I generally think you discount our other prospects more than they should be, that said...it's possible. It's hard to know what they are specifically looking for. If the Mets do demand Hiura and don't end up budging, then it's simply not meant to be in my opinion.

 

Regarding the article, it seemed to me that the yankees package was much much lighter than the other 3 packages. Considering it's a NY article, that's not surprising.

[Jkromb]

Stearns is all bark and no bite in my honest opinion.. he says a lot of stuff, but doesn’t follow through. We aren’t getting DeGrom or Thor no matter how much I’d like to see it happen. Expect smaller moves like Happ or Hamels and maybe a bat or two.

[adambr2]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

I generally think you discount our other prospects more than they should be, that said...it's possible. It's hard to know what they are specifically looking for. If the Mets do demand Hiura and don't end up budging, then it's simply not meant to be in my opinion.

 

Regarding the article, it seemed to me that the yankees package was much much lighter than the other 3 packages. Considering it's a NY article, that's not surprising.

 

I like Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta and other high prospects.

 

If you think I discount them based on saying that they definitely aren't good enough to headline a deal for a true ace controlled pitcher like DeGrom or Thor, then guilty, I discount them. There's just not a deal to be had on them without Hiura at least realistically unless you start including MLB pieces which would be counterproductive.

[pacopete4]

Stearns is all bark and no bite in my honest opinion.. he says a lot of stuff, but doesn’t follow through. We aren’t getting DeGrom or Thor no matter how much I’d like to see it happen. Expect smaller moves like Happ or Hamels and maybe a bat or two.

 

What has he said that he hasn’t come through with yet?

[MrTPlush]

I’m surprised Tristian Lutz never gets thrown out there in trade offers. Guy is often regarded as a Top 100 prospect or close to it. Seems like a solid guy to dangle to save some of our upper minor league talent.

[adambr2]

I’m surprised Tristian Lutz never gets thrown out there in trade offers. Guy is often regarded as a Top 100 prospect or close to it. Seems like a solid guy to dangle to save some of our upper minor league talent.

 

I have no problem using Lutz as a trade piece, and he definitely has good value, but he got off to a terrible start this year and hasn't torn up A ball in a way that would significantly enhance his trade value right now.

 

He's a guy who might be a significantly more valuable piece a year from now, and thus probably a better hold than sell candidate.

[Boomer5]

I’m surprised Tristian Lutz never gets thrown out there in trade offers. Guy is often regarded as a Top 100 prospect or close to it. Seems like a solid guy to dangle to save some of our upper minor league talent.

 

He just hasn’t done enough yet to generate meaningful trade capital. He’d be a nice third piece at this point and that would mean we would be selling low.

[Boomer5]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

No question about it. Hiura is going to part of any deal for a controllable TOR type.

[MrTPlush]

I’m surprised Tristian Lutz never gets thrown out there in trade offers. Guy is often regarded as a Top 100 prospect or close to it. Seems like a solid guy to dangle to save some of our upper minor league talent.

 

He just hasn’t done enough yet to generate meaningful trade capital. He’d be a nice third piece at this point and that would mean we would be selling low.

 

Well you assume you are selling low. He isn’t an elite prospect and is only at Low-A, that is crazy far away from the MLB level. You could be selling before he is totally worthless in a year.

 

I just see us propose a lot of deals loaded with near MLB ready talent. Not only do I find that a bit unrealistic, I also find it to be a poor idea. For instance Ray and Lutz are both ranked close to each other in prospect rankings. We would be better off offering Lutz in a deal if it’s all already loaded with some of our MLB ready players (multiple of Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta). Woodruff would also likely be valued pretty close to those two. Maybe it takes another low minor league piece then, but probably still a better idea then adding yet another near MLB piece.

 

It’s better for our farm system and the risk we take on in a trade to diversify what we are offering. Upper and lower level talent...which many big trades do.

[Lathund]

Stearns is all bark and no bite in my honest opinion.. he says a lot of stuff, but doesn’t follow through. We aren’t getting DeGrom or Thor no matter how much I’d like to see it happen. Expect smaller moves like Happ or Hamels and maybe a bat or two.

 

That's the types of moves I hope to see so I hope you're right. This team's weakness, now as it has been for the last couple of years, is on the offensive side of things. Since the start of 2016 (i.e even while the rebuild was still in full swing) Brewers are 23rd in wRC+ (22nd in runs), but 7th in ERA-. Current season for offense is slightly better, but not by much; 19th and 17th respectively. I'd be happy to see the rotation improve, but the big resources should be spent on the biggest need: Offense. Plugging the black holes towards the bottom of the order will do more for our playoff hopes than any starter will. So get a rental starter, maybe even a reliever is there's a Swarzak type deal to be made. But spend the big resources, whether it's in taking on salary or in pure prospect cost, on SS/2B/C. This offense simply isn't all that good, and it needs to get better. A C or middle infielder who can hit at even a league-average level will do so much for the offense. Lengthening the lineup to include 6 good hitters, and thus as a consequence slightly improving the bottom of it as well, will go a long way to making this offense more consistent.

[KeithStone53151]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

No question about it. Hiura is going to part of any deal for a controllable TOR type.

 

That is seriously short-sighted thinking. Hiura or bust, no GM is that closed-minded.

 

Keep in mind especially with Degrom, we are getting 2.5 years of control for likely over $30 million. It's not like this incredible bargain contract. Market value is maybe $25 million per year at best, and we'll be paying $12-18 million per year depending on arbitration. Yes it probably is a bargain contract, but not as team-friendly as some of you make it seem. The payroll alone, especially in the last year, will be an obstacle for bringing in talent or retaining talent.

 

Syndergaard may not be as expensive on a per year basis as we get more team control and the early years to dilute the expensive years, and his significant injury history also drives down his value. That's part of why his value is so difficult to evaluate. Should he be valued as a top 5 pitcher in baseball, or a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you if you're lucky?

[Boomer5]

I’m surprised Tristian Lutz never gets thrown out there in trade offers. Guy is often regarded as a Top 100 prospect or close to it. Seems like a solid guy to dangle to save some of our upper minor league talent.

 

He just hasn’t done enough yet to generate meaningful trade capital. He’d be a nice third piece at this point and that would mean we would be selling low.

 

Well you assume you are selling low. He isn’t an elite prospect and is only at Low-A, that is crazy far away from the MLB level. You could be selling before he is totally worthless in a year.

 

I just see us propose a lot of deals loaded with near MLB ready talent. Not only do I find that a bit unrealistic, I also find it to be a poor idea. For instance Ray and Lutz are both ranked close to each other in prospect rankings. We would be better off offering Lutz in a deal if it’s all already loaded with some of our MLB ready players (multiple of Hiura, Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta). Woodruff would also likely be valued pretty close to those two. Maybe it takes another low minor league piece then, but probably still a better idea then adding yet another near MLB piece.

 

It’s better for our farm system and the risk we take on in a trade to diversify what we are offering. Upper and lower level talent...which many big trades do.

 

If including Lutz gets us these two then yes he is gone.

 

I just think he is worth more to us now than he is as a trade chip since other than Hiura (who will be gone if we are to aquire anyone significant) we really don’t have any hitters that project as anything special and Lutz has that sort of potential. Or at least he was drafted high enough to hopefully get there.

[Boomer5]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

No question about it. Hiura is going to part of any deal for a controllable TOR type.

 

That is seriously short-sighted thinking. Hiura or bust, no GM is that closed-minded.

 

Keep in mind especially with Degrom, we are getting 2.5 years of control for likely over $30 million. It's not like this incredible bargain contract. Market value is maybe $25 million per year at best, and we'll be paying $12-18 million per year depending on arbitration. Yes it probably is a bargain contract, but not as team-friendly as some of you make it seem. The payroll alone, especially in the last year, will be an obstacle for bringing in talent or retaining talent.

 

Syndergaard may not be as expensive on a per year basis as we get more team control and the early years to dilute the expensive years, and his significant injury history also drives down his value. That's part of why his value is so difficult to evaluate. Should he be valued as a top 5 pitcher in baseball, or a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you if you're lucky?

 

We don’t have a farm system capable of landing a TOR guy unless Hiura is part of the deal. Depth doesn’t matter when you are trading for controllable stars, it’s top prospects that do.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We don’t have a farm system capable of landing a TOR guy unless Hiura is part of the deal. Depth doesn’t matter when you are trading for controllable stars, it’s top prospects that do.

 

I agree. The system has solid depth with good prospects at all levels, but it is lacking top-flight guys. Part of that is, I think, the team does a crap job of hyping their prospects, especially at the lower levels. But part, too, is that they have a lot of solid guys, but few game changers ... and those in the system that do have game-changing ability (like Ray and Gatewood) haven't developed as quickly as we would like, which has made them lose a bit of prospect luster. Hiura is one of the few that is showing that type of ability, but he also has warts with questionable defense and athleticism, along with durability concerns. If he is the centerpiece for someone like DeGrom or Thor, or some other top starter who is controllable for 2+ more seasons, while it would be tough to swallow, I think you do it.

[KeithStone53151]

That is seriously short-sighted thinking. Hiura or bust, no GM is that closed-minded.

 

Keep in mind especially with Degrom, we are getting 2.5 years of control for likely over $30 million. It's not like this incredible bargain contract. Market value is maybe $25 million per year at best, and we'll be paying $12-18 million per year depending on arbitration. Yes it probably is a bargain contract, but not as team-friendly as some of you make it seem. The payroll alone, especially in the last year, will be an obstacle for bringing in talent or retaining talent.

 

Syndergaard may not be as expensive on a per year basis as we get more team control and the early years to dilute the expensive years, and his significant injury history also drives down his value. That's part of why his value is so difficult to evaluate. Should he be valued as a top 5 pitcher in baseball, or a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you if you're lucky?

 

We don’t have a farm system capable of landing a TOR guy unless Hiura is part of the deal. Depth doesn’t matter when you are trading for controllable stars, it’s top prospects that do.

 

Then I think you don't really understand our farm system very well. Peralta has been skyrocketing up prospect rankings with every good start. Sure he had 1 bad one recently, but at the same time he showed great composure bouncing back from a rough 1st inning of bloop hits to keep us in the game. Peralta should probably be a top 50 prospect at the update and he's mlb ready, if he was in a big market he'd be top 25. Hiura won't be THAT far ahead of Peralta in prospect rankings, and Peralta is a pitcher which generally has more value...especially given he's MLB ready. Peralta with good secondary pieces could definitely headline a deal for Degrom or Syndergaard.

[KeithStone53151]

We don’t have a farm system capable of landing a TOR guy unless Hiura is part of the deal. Depth doesn’t matter when you are trading for controllable stars, it’s top prospects that do.

 

I agree. The system has solid depth with good prospects at all levels, but it is lacking top-flight guys. Part of that is, I think, the team does a crap job of hyping their prospects, especially at the lower levels. But part, too, is that they have a lot of solid guys, but few game changers ... and those in the system that do have game-changing ability (like Ray and Gatewood) haven't developed as quickly as we would like, which has made them lose a bit of prospect luster. Hiura is one of the few that is showing that type of ability, but he also has warts with questionable defense and athleticism, along with durability concerns. If he is the centerpiece for someone like DeGrom or Thor, or some other top starter who is controllable for 2+ more seasons, while it would be tough to swallow, I think you do it.

 

Believe me on this, the Mets will not be scrolling through our prospect list on mlb.com when deciding whether to trade their pitchers. Our prospects tend to get shafted on these lists in favor of big market prospects, it's just the way it is. The teams will have a much better feel for how good our prospects are and where they belong in the rankings than these lists show. That's why saying things like "so we're going to trade a package for 1 top 100 prospect for Degrom" comments are so silly. The package I've proposed centered around Burnes and Peralta includes a likely top 50 and another top 100 pitcher along with good secondary pieces. We easily have the ability to add good secondary pieces to a trade with our depth. That's plenty to get a deal done, probably more than we should be giving up given the helium Peralta has right now.

[Boomer5]

I understand our system just fine but if personal attacks make you feel better, you can keep it up brother.

 

Peralta is a guy who teams just don’t evaluate as a centerpiece of a major trade despite his excellent performance. Small righthanders who don’t throw hard will never be evaluated well. There is a reason why Pedro and Maddox were so rare and it’s because that profile is rarely successful over the long term.

 

I’d rather keep Peralta because he is by far our ace right now and he is worth more to us than he would be in a trade. He will be shut down in September due to innings but we need to ride him as long as his performance justifies it.

[adambr2]

Its hard to peg exactly where Arcia's value falls at the moment after a nightmare of a season for him so far.

 

Regardless, there's absolutely no way the Mets are accepting a package from us for Thor nor DeGrom that doesn't include Keston Hiura.

 

No question about it. Hiura is going to part of any deal for a controllable TOR type.

 

That is seriously short-sighted thinking. Hiura or bust, no GM is that closed-minded.

 

Keep in mind especially with Degrom, we are getting 2.5 years of control for likely over $30 million. It's not like this incredible bargain contract. Market value is maybe $25 million per year at best, and we'll be paying $12-18 million per year depending on arbitration. Yes it probably is a bargain contract, but not as team-friendly as some of you make it seem. The payroll alone, especially in the last year, will be an obstacle for bringing in talent or retaining talent.

 

Syndergaard may not be as expensive on a per year basis as we get more team control and the early years to dilute the expensive years, and his significant injury history also drives down his value. That's part of why his value is so difficult to evaluate. Should he be valued as a top 5 pitcher in baseball, or a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you if you're lucky?

 

It doesn't matter how we value him. It matters how the Mets value him. Why on earth would the Mets trade Syndergaard if they get a bunch of mediocre offers that value him as a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you? They wouldn't.

[adambr2]

That is seriously short-sighted thinking. Hiura or bust, no GM is that closed-minded.

 

Keep in mind especially with Degrom, we are getting 2.5 years of control for likely over $30 million. It's not like this incredible bargain contract. Market value is maybe $25 million per year at best, and we'll be paying $12-18 million per year depending on arbitration. Yes it probably is a bargain contract, but not as team-friendly as some of you make it seem. The payroll alone, especially in the last year, will be an obstacle for bringing in talent or retaining talent.

 

Syndergaard may not be as expensive on a per year basis as we get more team control and the early years to dilute the expensive years, and his significant injury history also drives down his value. That's part of why his value is so difficult to evaluate. Should he be valued as a top 5 pitcher in baseball, or a guy that may pitch 90 good innings a year for you if you're lucky?

 

We don’t have a farm system capable of landing a TOR guy unless Hiura is part of the deal. Depth doesn’t matter when you are trading for controllable stars, it’s top prospects that do.

 

Then I think you don't really understand our farm system very well. Peralta has been skyrocketing up prospect rankings with every good start. Sure he had 1 bad one recently, but at the same time he showed great composure bouncing back from a rough 1st inning of bloop hits to keep us in the game. Peralta should probably be a top 50 prospect at the update and he's mlb ready, if he was in a big market he'd be top 25. Hiura won't be THAT far ahead of Peralta in prospect rankings, and Peralta is a pitcher which generally has more value...especially given he's MLB ready. Peralta with good secondary pieces could definitely headline a deal for Degrom or Syndergaard.

 

They've already had multiple recent updates (both Pipeline and Baseball America) and Peralta has been anywhere from very low top 100 to outside the top 100. You're overrating him considerably. He isn't in Hiura's tier as a prospect, and no he is not a good enough headliner for DeGrom or Syndergaard assuming all the secondary pieces are weaker. I love Freddy Peralta, but he is not the first pitcher to make his debut in the bigs and come out with 3 great starts in his first 5.

 

If Peralta is such an elite pitching prospect that he can headline a deal for a controlled ace, why on earth are we not talking about building around him instead of trading him?

[Jenkins5]

Stearns is all bark and no bite in my honest opinion.. he says a lot of stuff, but doesn’t follow through. We aren’t getting DeGrom or Thor no matter how much I’d like to see it happen. Expect smaller moves like Happ or Hamels and maybe a bat or two.

 

Yelich deal kind of proves all bark no bite wrong in my opinion. He just isn’t willing to foolishly overpay the way some GMs are & way some fans want him to.

 

Still 100% disagree that Peralta has anything to do with trade for either. If I’m Stearns, it’s off table. Makes zero sense to take an asset out of rotation to gain another. Isn’t the goal to have best rotation possible? Peralta is no longer a prospect to me & has earned his keep. He is freshly 22, been electric, and shown he can be a piece of the future.

 

Again, teams in contention trade minor league prospects to upgrade.... not valuable major league assets. Woodruff, Burns, Hiura, and so on are all fair game & not helping us right now. Peralta is! I can not wrap my mind around why we would trade a kid who has pitched like we haven’t seen from a prospect here before to start career (I mean literally historically great start). Id throw in Davies who should be odd man out if they want a mlb arm to fill a hole. I’d take a lesser frontline arm over trade Peralta

[KeithStone53151]

They've already had multiple recent updates (both Pipeline and Baseball America) and Peralta has been anywhere from very low top 100 to outside the top 100. You're overrating him considerably. He isn't in Hiura's tier as a prospect, and no he is not a good enough headliner for DeGrom or Syndergaard assuming all the secondary pieces are weaker. I love Freddy Peralta, but he is not the first pitcher to make his debut in the bigs and come out with 3 great starts in his first 5.

 

If Peralta is such an elite pitching prospect that he can headline a deal for a controlled ace, why on earth are we not talking about building around him instead of trading him?

 

Those updates were minor, we'll get a more real update in late July I believe. And again if he was a Yankee or Cub he might be a top 25 prospect. Of course Peralta isn't what those guys are right now, but he's only 22 and having significant MLB success. Pair that with his minor league success and he's a heck of a prospect. The reason we'd trade for Degrom would be to win now, although I could absolutely understand the argument of not trading Peralta because his upside is probably a #2 starter right now. Again, right now, Degrom is better.

 

And regarding Syndergaard, teams should be wary of his injury history before trading for him. That might be part of why the Mets are shopping him, they are concerned with his injuries and want to sell high before he suffers a more serious injury. I highly highly doubt the Mets get value back for Syndergaard equivalent to 3.5 years of a 5 WAR pitcher, I don't even think the Cubs or Red Sox GM's would make such a stupid move. I think most people severely discount the risk in trading for Syndergaard, I'm not sure I'd trade Peralta or especially Hiura for him. My general trade talk centers around Degrom, as I'm more confident he would actually pitch for us than Syndergaard if we traded for him. I have no interest in shelling out payroll dollars and prospect capital to help a guy rehab injuries for 3.5 years and pitch sparingly. That does us no good.

[coolhandluke121]

Syndergaard pitched 183 innings at age 23 and what do you know, he's hurt 2 starts out of every 3 since then. I get the notion that it's not "chronic" injuries but it's not that simple. Over the course of many years, the body can change to handle constant stressors, but Syndergaard and Harvey didn't go through that process. Harvey had an injury that showed up in diagnostics and Syndergaard does not, but I wouldn't be surprised if an arthroscopic procedure showed a little more wear and tear than there should be.

 

The other thing is that Syndergaard just strikes me as a "tight" pitcher with more muscle than necessary, at the expense of flexibility. He doesn't have the smooth, effortless mechanics of deGrom. He reminds me of Strassburg and I definitely think he will be remembered as another prodigy who looked like a sure-fire hall-of-famer but burned out fast and never lived up to his potential due to injuries.