Syndergaard and deGrom

[pacopete4]

I'm off the Syndergaard bandwagon because players on the DL cannot help the team. Syndergaard has made 13 starts in the last 14 months. Latest injury was a "strained finger ligament" and the end result of that will likely be a 6 week DL stay and 8 missed starts. No question the guy is a great pitcher when he is on the mound. But Stearns has to be very, very careful if he goes down this road.

 

I complete agree. I didn’t want Arrieta but I would’ve much rather had them toss $$ at him than toss prospects like Hiura. For me he is a can’t miss bat.

[brewmann04]

I am liking to see Hiura and Dubon bats in the lineup next season.

[brewmann04]

Sy injury past worries me

[homer]

Because of Syndergaard's injuries, he can potentially be had for less than top value. And his injuries have never been to his elbow or his shoulder (biceps tendonitis for which he never went on DL, torn lat, and finger which is probably a fluke). He makes a ton more sense to me than DeGrom.

 

Not 100% sure on this but I don't think lat issues are chronic.

[MrTPlush]

Hiura, Burnes, and Ray?

 

Yah, I would have to pull the trigger on that. 3.5 years of an elite pitcher is hard to pass up. We only have to give up one guy that would “sting”.

 

Not as concerned with the injury history. The guy can hit the DL a few times every year for all I care. He would still have a giant impact in the regular season and as long as he isn’t injured come October doubt I will shed many tears.

 

Hiura is still a massive risk to not perform too ya know. I think I’d have to pull the trigger and take the risk on Noah. Might not work out, but Hiura/Burnes/Ray night not either.

 

Also not sure how looking at Corey Ray’s stats in the box score is depressing. He is putting together a pretty solid season.

[JosephC]

During the last couple weeks I've taken just a couple looks at the New York papers and they are already talking about Jacob deGrom like he is a member of the Yankees. But just for kicks I decided to include him here.

 

Syndergaard's Baseball Reference WARs = 5.0 (2016), 0.6 (2017), 3.0 (doubled to represent full season). Fangraphs = 6.4, 1.4, 3.8 (doubled to represent full season). Three year average between the two = 3.4 WAR.

Not going to duplicate all the math here, but assuming 1 WAR = 9.16 million (2018), = 9.80 million (2019), = 10.49 million (2020), = 11.22 million (2021) and crediting Syndergaard for 1.7 WAR for the remainder of 2018 and then at 3.4 WAR for each season from 2019-2021, that would put his value at 122.706 million. He'll make about 1.49 million for the rest of this season, and my arbitration guesses for him for the remaining three seasons would be 6.0 million, 9.6 million, 13.5 million for a total of 30.59 million. 122.706-30.59 = 92.116 in surplus value for 3.5 years of Syndergaard.

 

deGrom's Baseball Reference WARs = 3.5 (2016), 4.4 (2017), 10.0 (doubled to represent full season). Fangraphs = 3.2, 4.4, 7.8 (doubled to represent full season). Three year average between the two = 5.6 WAR.

Then doing the math, same as above with Syndergaard, I have deGrom having a value of 139.272 million. Considering the season he is having I think his arbitration numbers push into that upper strastophere. He'll earn 3.7 million for the rest of this season, then I'd project him to make 13.3 million and 21 million in the next two years of arbitration. Totals earnings = 38 million. 139.272 - 38 = 101.272 million in surplus value.

 

The obvious issue when dealing with Syndergaard is the injury factor. No doubt that the Mets (especially the Mets) will want to be compensated like Syndergaard will be healthy and pitch like a 5-6 annual WAR pitcher over the next 3.5 years. But using the numbers I have above, he is already being valued at 90+ million dollars. Personally, I really do think the 3.4 WAR number for Syndergaard is fair. It presents a good balance between the high upside and the downside associated with the injury factor.

 

IMO examples of a fair deal for Syndergaard would be:

-Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Trent Grisham

-Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Corey Ray, Luis Ortiz

-Syndergaard for Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Luis Ortiz, Zack Brown, Jake Gatewood

 

And in the interst of full disclosure, I'd have the following surplus values assigned to each of the prospects named above:

-Keston Hiura = 43.73 million

-Corbin Burnes = 18.9 million

-Freddy Peralta = 18.9 million

-Corey Ray = 11.45 million

-Luis Ortiz = 11.45 million

-Trent Grisham = 8.59 million

-Zack Brown = 8.59 million

-Jake Gatewood = 5.72 million

[TURBO]

Peralta and Hiura will/can impact this team greatly in 2019

 

Peralta is already showing his value to this team, and Hiura could do the same in August.

 

6 years each of Hiura and Peralta for 3.5 years of Syndergaard?

 

I just can't see trading either of these 2 guys for 3.5 years of Syndergaard, when based on his history, will spend a certain % of that time on the DL.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly you can throw all the numbers in the world out there. Many here are already penciling in Hiura as a perennial AS. So they probably have his surplus value near a quarter of a billion dollars.

 

If someone falls in love with a prospect...they fall in love with a prospect. If they believe he is can’t miss there isn’t much negotiation.

[pacopete4]

Because we are giving up those players, who could be very impactful very soon, for a guy with a lot of warts and who will start costing quite a bit of money each year. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t of traded Braun or Fielder as minor leaguers and I don’t want to trade Hiura.

[TURBO]

Because we are giving up those players, who could be very impactful very soon, for a guy with a lot of warts and who will start costing quite a bit of money each year. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t of traded Braun or Fielder as minor leaguers and I don’t want to trade Hiura.

 

searching for "like" button...

[TURBO]

Because we are giving up those players, who could be very impactful very soon, for a guy with a lot of warts and who will start costing quite a bit of money each year. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t of traded Braun or Fielder as minor leaguers and I don’t want to trade Hiura.

 

serching for "like" button...

[homer]

Because we are giving up those players, who could be very impactful very soon, for a guy with a lot of warts and who will start costing quite a bit of money each year. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t of traded Braun or Fielder as minor leaguers and I don’t want to trade Hiura.

 

What are his warts other than an injuries not to his elbow or shoulder?

[pacopete4]

Because we are giving up those players, who could be very impactful very soon, for a guy with a lot of warts and who will start costing quite a bit of money each year. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I wouldn’t of traded Braun or Fielder as minor leaguers and I don’t want to trade Hiura.

 

What are his warts other than an injuries not to his elbow or shoulder?

 

Are those not big enough warts for ya? They are for me.

[adambr2]

Honest question, how did everyone feel about Brinson compared to Hiura? Because they are very similar in prospect rankings.

 

Me personally, I was ok with trading Brinson. I saw some upside but I also saw some big red flags and felt that his value may start dropping dramatically this season if we didn't make a move now. Injury concerns were at the top of my list.

I just felt there was a high bust possibility with Brinson, and I realize it's far too early to say that has happened.

 

Hiura, I would have a little tougher time with. I know the elbow is a concern but the bat looks about as real as a tool can be and it looks even better with him being a middle infielder.

 

I'm already mentally preparing myself for the strong chance that his career won't be here. I could stomach it more easily if we had a second deal in place for someone like Mayfield.

[Humans Need Water]

Hiura, Burnes, and Ray?

 

Yah, I would have to pull the trigger on that. 3.5 years of an elite pitcher is hard to pass up. We only have to give up one guy that would “sting”.

 

Not as concerned with the injury history. The guy can hit the DL a few times every year for all I care. He would still have a giant impact in the regular season and as long as he isn’t injured come October doubt I will shed many tears.

 

Hiura is still a massive risk to not perform too ya know. I think I’d have to pull the trigger and take the risk on Noah. Might not work out, but Hiura/Burnes/Ray night not either.

 

Also not sure how looking at Corey Ray’s stats in the box score is depressing. He is putting together a pretty solid season.

I'm curious where this *massive* risk comes from. His hit tool is rated higher than any prospect going back to the 2014 Top 100 list except for like 3 players. Everything about him screams 300+ hitter at the MLB level. His throwing program/arm have seen no setbacks and he's been playing the field every day for like 6-7wks now.

 

It's easy to argue there's more risk adding Thor than there is keeping Hiura. Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries. I'm on board with gambling on talent like his but you don't do it using minimal risk guys like Hiura.

[pacopete4]

I’d rather give up Peralta and Burnes + for Thor than include Hiura.

[MrTPlush]

Hiura, Burnes, and Ray?

 

Yah, I would have to pull the trigger on that. 3.5 years of an elite pitcher is hard to pass up. We only have to give up one guy that would “sting”.

 

Not as concerned with the injury history. The guy can hit the DL a few times every year for all I care. He would still have a giant impact in the regular season and as long as he isn’t injured come October doubt I will shed many tears.

 

Hiura is still a massive risk to not perform too ya know. I think I’d have to pull the trigger and take the risk on Noah. Might not work out, but Hiura/Burnes/Ray night not either.

 

Also not sure how looking at Corey Ray’s stats in the box score is depressing. He is putting together a pretty solid season.

I'm curious where this *massive* risk comes from. His hit tool is rated higher than any prospect going back to the 2014 Top 100 list except for like 3 players. Everything about him screams 300+ hitter at the MLB level. His throwing program/arm have seen no setbacks and he's been playing the field every day for like 6-7wks now.

 

It's easy to argue there's more risk adding Thor than there is keeping Hiura. Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries. I'm on board with gambling on talent like his but you don't do it using minimal risk guys like Hiura.

 

He is a prospect and like all prospects are massive risks to never get to their ceiling. Even can’t miss guys constantly don’t become near what scouts thought. Sometimes it takes years to finally break out.

 

What if it takes two years before he finally becomes a difference maker? At which point our core just falls apart? Is he all that valuable anymore.

 

Huge risk, any prospect is.

[paul253]

It's easy to argue there's more risk adding Thor than there is keeping Hiura. Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries. I'm on board with gambling on talent like his but you don't do it using minimal risk guys like Hiura

 

But Hiura only has something like 110 plate appearances over A ball. The risk is that he hasn’t actually done anything above AA. I surely expect he will, but Rickie Weeks was much more highly rated as a prospect and he only turned out to be an ok major leaguer. It happens.

 

Additionally, as we’ve seen it’s so much easier to draft and develop quality bottom than quality pitching. So while replacing Hiura won’t be easy, it would be much easier than trying to develop your own Syndergaard type pitcher.

[TURBO]

Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries.

 

This is what says it all for me... Having Syndergaard on the roster, but not on the field every 5 days is a deterrant, a BIG one!

[Eye Black]

Honest question, how did everyone feel about Brinson compared to Hiura? Because they are very similar in prospect rankings.

I think Brinson has a much greater range of outcomes than I believe Hiura does. I believe Brinson offered less certainty overall, but a slightly higher ceiling if things were to click for him offensively at somepoint (taking into account defensive ability and the value of position based offensive production). For Hiura I think the bat is about as safe as it can be for a prospect currently in Double-A. That doesn’t mean he is “can’t miss” by any means, but it is hard to picture him not becoming at least an average MLB second baseman offensively. My concerns for Hiura defensively isn’t even as much the arm injury as it is that his arm was reportedly considered well below average before the injury. There have certainly been serviceable MLB second baseman without strong arms so I also don’t think the arm strength is something worth blowing out of proportion, but it will limit the possibility of having much positional flexibility with Hiura.

 

Another part of the equation for me is that when trading Brinson I felt like the Brewers were getting fairly strong performance certainty back in Yelich. One thing that worries me about giving up Hiura in a trade for a pitcher is that the Brewers, IMO, may be the team taking on greater risk than the team acquiring the prospects, which I would say is somewhat atypical.

[Jenkins5]

I’d rather give up Peralta and Burnes + for Thor than include Hiura.

 

That'd be a hard pass for me. I really don't want to trade Huira but I definitely don't want to trade Peralta. He is exciting! Really is only pitcher in rotation I actually enjoy and look forward to watch every 5th day.

 

Moreover, I'm against trading guys like Peralta and Hader who have "arrived" and are helping win now. To me you don't trade contributing assets on contention team.... prospects who are merely prospects not help out fine. You don't win selling off major league assets.

[Humans Need Water]

I'm curious where this *massive* risk comes from. His hit tool is rated higher than any prospect going back to the 2014 Top 100 list except for like 3 players. Everything about him screams 300+ hitter at the MLB level. His throwing program/arm have seen no setbacks and he's been playing the field every day for like 6-7wks now.

 

It's easy to argue there's more risk adding Thor than there is keeping Hiura. Dude's thrown 95 innings since 2016 without having any elbow/shoulder injuries. I'm on board with gambling on talent like his but you don't do it using minimal risk guys like Hiura.

 

He is a prospect and like all prospects are massive risks to never get to their ceiling. Even can’t miss guys constantly don’t become near what scouts thought. Sometimes it takes years to finally break out.

 

What if it takes two years before he finally becomes a difference maker? At which point our core just falls apart? Is he all that valuable anymore.

 

Huge risk, any prospect is.

I get that players who haven't performed at the highest level yet have risk associated with them but saying *all* prospects are *huge* risks is false and misleading. As a player rises through the minors while continuing to perform their risk decreases - there are a lot of different variables that play into this and not just performance. But there are certainly players you watch and they have that aura about them. You know they're going to succeed. Hiura is one of those guys. His risk is limited. Did the Brewers say that Arcia and Brinson's bats were MLB ready or was it going to potentially take a bit? Compare that to Hiura, who only played A ball for 1-2 months last year, who the team said his bat was almost MLB ready this past spring. The guy hit 419 in 31 spring AB (19 games) sitting on the bench for 6-8 innings chewing gum before picking up his bat and raking vs AA, AAA, MLB guys.

 

A good amount of Top 20 overall prospects are rated that high due to their defense/arm/speed/athleticism over their bat. They're average to above average potential hitters and if they reach that, combined with their plus tools, it makes them an AS caliber player but if they don't then they're an average starter. The difference with Hiura is that his bat is his calling card and not his defense. The bat always plays. Always. It helps that he was a very accomplished, polished college hitter so he's already advanced compared to others. And I'm not talking Corey Ray college advanced bat because Hiura's college numbers destroyed Ray's.

[MrTPlush]

You are nitpicking my definition of “huge risk”. I don’t disagree with what you are saying.

[Humans Need Water]

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

[Dadbauer]

Since your own definition wasn't articulated I took it literally because there's no other way to take it. Anyway, moving on.

 

Back to the rumor we're targeting Thor. If a deal happens I'll take the stance that nobody else has. I'm calling Hiura not being involved, rather Arcia the one heading to the Mets in a package. Even though he's lost at the plate right now he still has 4yrs+ cheap control, age on his side, showed what he's capable of offensively over the final 4 months last year and has taken a sizable step forward defensively this year (he's great there). He still has plenty of value. Mets could be attracted to having Arcia/Rosario up the middle the next 4yrs, especially if they believe their bats will come around like the Angels did with Simmons (his 2013-2015 slash line is almost identical to Arcia's career stats thus far with Arcia having half the PAs). Arcia is absolutely better defensively at SS than Rosario so he can pull an Albies and shift to 2b since Cabrera is a FA after this year (they can move him at the deadline anyway). On our end we then have 6yrs of Dubon as he's MLB ready and would still have Miller for another year to help ease Dubon's transition (plus Perez). OR we talk to the Jays about Stroman!

 

There is no way in hell Arcia headlines a deal for Syndergard. Dubon is more valuable at this point, and do you think the Mets would value HIM as a centerpiece? Use your head.