Where is Domingo's Power?

[SoCalBrewfan]

His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter.

 

He's been a plus defender this year by most systems. His career obp is .347, which isn't Cain level but is better than most current Brewers; last year's .371 was outstanding and he had great numbers (318/438/570) in the 30 games where he hit #2.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter.

 

He's been a plus defender this year by most systems. His career obp is .347, which isn't Cain level but is better than most current Brewers; last year's .371 was outstanding and he had great numbers (318/438/570) in the 30 games where he hit #2.

 

I'll admit that he hasn't been an embarrassment in the outfield this year, and he has the athleticism to be a good defender (he's fast and has a cannon for an arm). He isn't close to that yet, though. Hitting-wise, he's always going to be a high-K guy, which isn't ideal at the top of the order. If he has his power, though, he's a legit middle-of-the-order bat. He's young enough to still turn things around. If they could get him going, that would be a huge help to this offense, and provide some lineup consistency.

 

Santana strikes me as the type of guy they'll trade for a bag of peanuts, and he'll immediately turn into a 40 HR/year guy. And that sucks.

[JohnBriggs12]

Santana wouldn't be the first guy to post a good season or two and not be able to sustain it. Sixto Lezcano looked like a budding superstar in 78 and 79. His decline was stunning. Maintaining a high level of performance at the highest level isn't easy.

[bill hAll Star]

santana finally hit his second double yesterday. .308 / .419 / .462. clearly, the slugging percentage is buoyed by his batting average.

 

If he can't hit for power at Colorado Springs, I don't want him anywhere near the major league club. His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter.

 

Colorado Springs and, to an extent, Coors Field are not really the home run fields that they're made up to be.

 

They're batting average and doubles/triples fields much more so.

 

The fields are very large and cavernous so that the altitude does not make it so that there are 15 HR/game. Therefore, the ball still goes out of the park a little bit more than average, but BABIP and therefore batting average is insane because there is so much ground to cover for fielders. Plus, you have the whole thing with pitches not breaking as expected for pitchers so the ball is in play more.

 

It's not that the altitude fields aren't good for HRs, but they are not the driving force behind what everyone's assumption of them is.

 

For instance, take Charlie Blackmon:

Home: 64 HR, .342 BA, 30 3B

Away: 61 HR, .263 BA, 7 3B

Random: Blackmon has played in 30 more away games than home games over his career so this is even more impressive, though maybe it does support the more HR theory a bit more.

 

DJ LeMahieu (I'm lumping in the partial Cubs year here because I'm lazy):

Home: 18 HR, .329 BA, 90 2B, 20 3B

Away: 24 HR, .269 BA, 57 2B, 9 3B

 

Some Rockies like Arenado do hit a bit more HR at home but part of that is because it's really hard to hit homers at Petco, AT&T, and Chavez Ravine.

[KeithStone53151]

santana finally hit his second double yesterday. .308 / .419 / .462. clearly, the slugging percentage is buoyed by his batting average.

 

If he can't hit for power at Colorado Springs, I don't want him anywhere near the major league club. His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter.

 

Colorado Springs and, to an extent, Coors Field are not really the home run fields that they're made up to be.

 

They're batting average and doubles/triples fields much more so.

 

The fields are very large and cavernous so that the altitude does not make it so that there are 15 HR/game. Therefore, the ball still goes out of the park a little bit more than average, but BABIP and therefore batting average is insane because there is so much ground to cover for fielders. Plus, you have the whole thing with pitches not breaking as expected for pitchers so the ball is in play more.

 

It's not that the altitude fields aren't good for HRs, but they are not the driving force behind what everyone's assumption of them is.

 

For instance, take Charlie Blackmon:

Home: 64 HR, .342 BA, 30 3B

Away: 61 HR, .263 BA, 7 3B

Random: Blackmon has played in 30 more away games than home games over his career so this is even more impressive, though maybe it does support the more HR theory a bit more.

 

DJ LeMahieu (I'm lumping in the partial Cubs year here because I'm lazy):

Home: 18 HR, .329 BA, 90 2B, 20 3B

Away: 24 HR, .269 BA, 57 2B, 9 3B

 

Some Rockies like Arenado do hit a bit more HR at home but part of that is because it's really hard to hit homers at Petco, AT&T, and Chavez Ravine.

 

That's one thing that gets drastically overlooked when considering the Coors effect. Home road splits would be more drastic for the Brewers if we played in the NL West with those 3 stadiums you noted...which are probably 3 of the top 5 pitcher friendly parks in baseball. I tend to agree with a lot of your post, but keep in mind there probably wouldn't be as extreme of a BA split if these guys didn't play so many games at those 3 extreme pitcher friendly parks.

[bill hAll Star]

That's one thing that gets drastically overlooked when considering the Coors effect. Home road splits would be more drastic for the Brewers if we played in the NL West with those 3 stadiums you noted...which are probably 3 of the top 5 pitcher friendly parks in baseball. I tend to agree with a lot of your post, but keep in mind there probably wouldn't be as extreme of a BA split if these guys didn't play so many games at those 3 extreme pitcher friendly parks.

 

That's somewhat true, though I think those fields slightly hinder HR more than they hinder average. Definitely a factor, though. Maybe not 60-80 point oceans in batting average splits, but still big for guys like Blackmon if they played more neutral road parks.

 

Colorado Springs definitely does the job and I believe that the PCL is a basically universally good hitter's parks, though I don't know all of them.

 

Player, year, H/A average split

Orf, 2017, .353/.288

Orf, 2018, .333/.273

Phillips, 2017, .330/.277

Nottingham, 2018, .312/.278

Sogard, 2017, .313/.250

 

So maybe it's more of 50-60 points difference instead of the 70, sometimes 80 that guys see at Coors given the away games.

[MrTPlush]

Domingo Santana could be more like his 2016 self and be okay. An .800 OPS...ASSUMING...his defensive improvements are sustainable in the long run is decent. It isn’t crazy by any means, but certainly starter quality.

 

He will find his power stroke again, patience. I doubt he just fell of the earth when it comes to his power. If I recall a lot of his power came to the opposite field. If he doesn’t have that strong opposite field stroke his power likely is going to take quite a hit.

[Lathund]

His value lies in his power, as he's never going to be a plus defender or table setter.

 

He's been a plus defender this year by most systems. His career obp is .347, which isn't Cain level but is better than most current Brewers; last year's .371 was outstanding and he had great numbers (318/438/570) in the 30 games where he hit #2.

 

He has looked a bit better this year, but keep in mind that both UZR and DRS require large sample sizes, and don't really stabilize until after 1½-2 seasons or so. Over about a third of a season they can be very wonky. Domingo Santana, even if he has improved somewhat, is not the 3rd best defensive RF in the major leagues.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Fair enough, but 'he's never going to be a plus defender' is a very strong statement that I think should be challenged. It seems like people watching the games have agreed with the stats to say that Santana's defense has improved from what was a pretty dismal showing last year, but of course defense is hard to measure and predict. Given his other skills, though, he doesn't need to be a Heyward level defender to be a valuable player.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Fair enough, but 'he's never going to be a plus defender' is a very strong statement that I think should be challenged. It seems like people watching the games have agreed with the stats to say that Santana's defense has improved from what was a pretty dismal showing last year, but of course defense is hard to measure and predict. Given his other skills, though, he doesn't need to be a Heyward level defender to be a valuable player.

 

I guess what I was trying to say is that I think the best we can hope for defensively from Santana is "adequate". Yes he has shown improvement, but I guess when I think "plus defender", I think "above average". I personally don't think he's ever going to be that. Sorry, I should have clarified.

[djoctagone]

santana's latest line with colorado springs: .268 /.392 /.366

 

while the high obp is nice, the slugging is definitely still absent.

[Thurston Fluff]

santana's latest line with colorado springs: .268 /.392 /.366

 

while the high obp is nice, the slugging is definitely still absent.

 

As a glass half full person, power is something that comes in spurts. If he can get the rest of his hitting in order the power might follow.

[clancyphile]

Furthermore, the patience is a good thing. More pitches, more likely the pitcher makes a mistake he can truly turn on.

[djoctagone]

.255 / .368 / .345 . . . definitely cause for concern.

[DHonks]

How about the fact that he doesnt get regular at bats?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

 

except this isn't true. Through mid-June he had nearly the same amount of plate appearances as last year at the same point

[JCREW]

If you go back through Domingo's major and minor league stats, there seems to be a bit of a correlation between his BB% and his ISO (SLG - AVG = ISO). He is taking a few walks in Colorado Springs (18%), but his power is even lower than it was in MKE (.088). And that with many games played in a park that should boost ISO numbers.

 

CONFOUNDING!!

[YelichPosse]

Is Domingo basically gone now? The Domingo we know?

 

A .260 hitter with zero power and average D (that's being nice) is useless in the outfield...

 

Not sure what happened to him but... if he has yet to show anything in Colorado Springs... what the heck?

[JohnBriggs12]

Sometimes guys coming off a breakout season like Santana's 2017 tweak things thinking they can get even better and mess up their swings or approaches. I don't think that's what happened to Santana though.

 

I think he felt pressure coming into spring training (and perhaps some resentment) after Cain and Yelich were acquired. He was awful in spring training (.185/

.224/278) with just one HR and striking out a an alarming rate even for Santana (25Ks in 54 ABs). My guess is once the regular season started, he focused more on putting the ball in play, and in the process lost his power stroke. He's been messed up ever since.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is Domingo basically gone now? The Domingo we know?

 

A .260 hitter with zero power and average D (that's being nice) is useless in the outfield...

 

Not sure what happened to him but... if he has yet to show anything in Colorado Springs... what the heck?

 

He'll get chances but likely his days as a Brewer are over. I can't see them offering him arbitration after this lost season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is Domingo basically gone now? The Domingo we know?

 

A .260 hitter with zero power and average D (that's being nice) is useless in the outfield...

 

Not sure what happened to him but... if he has yet to show anything in Colorado Springs... what the heck?

 

He'll get chances but likely his days as a Brewer are over. I can't see them offering him arbitration after this lost season.

 

In true Brewers fashion, they'll likely end up trading him for a bag of balls. He'll then proceed to hit 40 HRs a year for the next 6 years. Let's just hope he's doing it in the American League.

[YelichPosse]

Is Domingo basically gone now? The Domingo we know?

 

A .260 hitter with zero power and average D (that's being nice) is useless in the outfield...

 

Not sure what happened to him but... if he has yet to show anything in Colorado Springs... what the heck?

 

He'll get chances but likely his days as a Brewer are over. I can't see them offering him arbitration after this lost season.

 

In true Brewers fashion, they'll likely end up trading him for a bag of balls. He'll then proceed to hit 40 HRs a year for the next 6 years. Let's just hope he's doing it in the American League.

 

I tend to agree that this is what will happen - unfortunately. For some reason he has completely disappeared. This isn't like "oh he is struggling". It's almost like he is gone completely. Without and injury, in recent memory, I'm not sure I've seen this with a Brewer before. Yea we have seen career years then some fall off. But not a complete cliff..... (without some injury playing into it).

[TURBO]

I think it's the mental game for Domingo. Great 2017 season. Trade rumors all off season. Once season starts, no regular playing time.

 

I think the entire process was mentally wearing on the guy, and we mishandled him.

[TURBO]

I think it's the mental game for Domingo. Great 2017 season. Trade rumors all off season. Once season starts, no regular playing time.

 

I think the entire process was mentally wearing on the guy, and we mishandled him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's the mental game for Domingo. Great 2017 season. Trade rumors all off season. Once season starts, no regular playing time.

 

I think the entire process was mentally wearing on the guy, and we mishandled him.

 

Domingo played regularly. He was the every day RF until the team finally determined that he was adding nothing. Not sure where the "no regular playing time" narrative is coming from? Yelich had a few games in RF when Braun played LF, but that was by no means a regular thing.

[Baldkin]

I tend to agree that this is what will happen - unfortunately. For some reason he has completely disappeared. This isn't like "oh he is struggling". It's almost like he is gone completely. Without and injury, in recent memory, I'm not sure I've seen this with a Brewer before. Yea we have seen career years then some fall off. But not a complete cliff..... (without some injury playing into it).

 

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