2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

[SRB]

Gray looking good in a Brewers uniform. Have a good feeling about him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Gray gives me a Monte Harrison vibe. Really smooth athlete, if a little raw. Harrison really scuffled for a couple years before breaking out last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if Gray started out pretty slowly as well. He'll be an interesting name to watch for the next several years.

[Noche]

Go back and check the tape. Monte was pretty damn good in rookie ball before scuffling for a bit with injuries and contact issues in full season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Go back and check the tape. Monte was pretty damn good in rookie ball before scuffling for a bit with injuries and contact issues in full season.

 

He hit .261 in Brevard County in 2014. I would qualify that as OK. Other than that, his minor league numbers before last year were pretty nondescript. Obviously the talent was always there, though. I really liked Harrison and was sad to see him go.

 

But that's not the point. Harrison isn't a Brewer anymore. Joe Gray is. And Joe Gray, at least to me, is a uber-athletic quick-twitch player with the same kind of traits that got me excited about Harrison. Those are also the types that other teams salivate over in potential deals down the road.

[Noche]

Go back and check the tape. Monte was pretty damn good in rookie ball before scuffling for a bit with injuries and contact issues in full season.

 

He hit .261 in Brevard County in 2014. I would qualify that as OK. Other than that, his minor league numbers before last year were pretty nondescript. Obviously the talent was always there, though. I really liked Harrison and was sad to see him go.

 

But that's not the point. Harrison isn't a Brewer anymore. Joe Gray is. And Joe Gray, at least to me, is a uber-athletic quick-twitch player with the same kind of traits that got me excited about Harrison. Those are also the types that other teams salivate over in potential deals down the road.

 

You got the batting average right but nothing else. Monte has never played for Brevard Co. He played in the Arizona League in 2014. Had a .400+ OBP and 30+ steals. He was excellent. Then he was good again the next year in Helena before getting injured upon promotion.

 

What are you looking at?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Go back and check the tape. Monte was pretty damn good in rookie ball before scuffling for a bit with injuries and contact issues in full season.

 

He hit .261 in Brevard County in 2014. I would qualify that as OK. Other than that, his minor league numbers before last year were pretty nondescript. Obviously the talent was always there, though. I really liked Harrison and was sad to see him go.

 

But that's not the point. Harrison isn't a Brewer anymore. Joe Gray is. And Joe Gray, at least to me, is a uber-athletic quick-twitch player with the same kind of traits that got me excited about Harrison. Those are also the types that other teams salivate over in potential deals down the road.

 

You got the batting average right but nothing else. Monte has never played for Brevard Co. He played in the Arizona League in 2014. Had a .400+ OBP and 30+ steals. He was excellent. Then he was good again the next year in Helena before getting injured upon promotion.

 

What are you looking at?

 

My bad ... I got the teams mixed up. He was fine in Arizona Rookie League. Showed promise. Then spent several years with injuries and flailing before living up to that promise again last year, which excited the Marlins enough to make him a big piece of the deal for Yelich. Also, you have it reversed. Harrison was aggressively bumped to the Wisconsin Single A team at the outset of the season in 2015, where he scuffled big time before being sent to Helena to play short season Rookie ball.

 

But ... this isn't about Harrison. It's about Gray. And in my opinion, Gray's skillset compares favorably to Harrison's. It wouldn't surprise me to see him take a similar career path, which will come with highs and lows before hopefully a breakout as a top prospect a couple years from now.

[buckeyesteve]

Hey guys - I read this forum probably 300 days out of 365 but rarely post....have been a lurker for probably 15 years.....I have never visited another brewer fan website because I don't know any others actually. But I love the information and its really the only way an out of towner can get good info on the team and farm system.

 

Keep up the good work to everyone...

 

Now then, I found this article and didn't see it mentioned anywhere.....but if it has been...my apologies...

 

http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_2e5e19d6-7966-11e8-9a1b-3b274cf02d31.html

 

(looks good for Cabell and Turang - spoiler)

[jvrocksaz]

Hey guys - I read this forum probably 300 days out of 365 but rarely post....have been a lurker for probably 15 years.....I have never visited another brewer fan website because I don't know any others actually. But I love the information and its really the only way an out of towner can get good info on the team and farm system.

 

Keep up the good work to everyone...

 

Now then, I found this article and didn't see it mentioned anywhere.....but if it has been...my apologies...

 

http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_2e5e19d6-7966-11e8-9a1b-3b274cf02d31.html

 

(looks good for Cabell and Turang - spoiler)

 

 

Good find buckeyesteve. That does make it sound promising!

[KeithStone53151]

Has anyone heard any updates on Turang? 4 days left. We've had most of our guys signed for a bit, I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have. I'm growing more and more pessimistic by the day. I guess it's possible we are trying to land both Turang and Daniel and are working out how to divvy up the remaining space.

[chuckiehacks]

They now have $4MM to offer him, which I can't believe he'd turn down.

[And That]

I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.

[KeithStone53151]

I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.

 

I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

 

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.

[LouisEly]

I believe only three picks in the entire first 10 rounds last year didn't sign. I think it's been 3-4 years since a first round pick hasn't signed for non-medical reasons.

 

If you have time to negotiate an extra $50K-100K, go for it.

[MillerParkSouth]

As the 21st pick in the draft, there is very little incentive for him to go to school since there isn't much upward movement available to him. It's annoying that it is taking so long for him to sign though, I agree. Hopefully he signs in the next couple of days so we have a little more time to throw some of our remaining money at some higher round draftees to sign them away.

[And That]

I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign.

The last unsigned MLB first-round pick was in 2015, Kyle Funkhouser at 35 overall.

 

Between 2016 and 2017, of all the players drafted by all the teams in the first ten rounds, five did not sign.

[KeithStone53151]

I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign.

The last unsigned MLB first-round pick was in 2015, Kyle Funkhouser at 35 overall.

 

Between 2016 and 2017, of all the players drafted by all the teams in the first ten rounds, five did not sign.

 

Jeez, so it really is all posturing and non-sense(from my perspective). I can understand the player side though, they get one chance to negotiate this and for all they know...this is the only real pro baseball money they ever get.

[DHonks]

I feel like if Turang was going to sign...he would have.

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.

 

I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

 

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.

 

Living off $100k per year would last ~20-30 years, definitely not for life.

[MadScientist]

More than 1/3 of first-round picks remain unsigned. It would be an upset if all do not end up signing. This often goes down to the wire. It is what it is, teams and players both trying to maximize value.

 

I felt like with the bonus pool caps, that whole going down to the wire thing changed. I remember when we signed Bradley/Jungmann, I recall negotiations not really even starting until a few hours before the deadline or something weird like that. It's obvious we can offer X, the only variable in play might be trying to save some for Daniel.

 

Here's hoping it works out, I know you're right that most end up signing. I think each year somewhere between 0 and 2 1st round picks don't sign. Maybe it's just how I'm wired, but I can't understand turning down $4 million. Put it in super safe investments and live off $100k a year for life money at that age, without ever having to work if you don't want to. Turning it down, best case scenario is he goes to college and kills it...and gets $7 million in 3 years. Worst case...he gets a college education and $10k signing bonus as a senior if he's terrible or gets hurt.

 

Living off $100k per year would last ~20-30 years, definitely not for life.

 

2.5M (after tax, etc) invested at 4% means you have 100k to live off without touching the principle. He really would be a fool to turn down a 4M offer.

[And That]

The Brewers can offer Turang up to $3,613,695.

[clancyphile]

What happens if it takes more than that?

[And That]

Then they won't sign him.

[pacopete4]

What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.

[And That]

What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.

Turang has not not been signed. We don't know if he's signing or not. I don't think there's overwhelming evidence that he won't sign.

[pacopete4]

What a disappointment in not signing that guy. Boy do we seem to squander first round picks.

Turang has not not been signed. We don't know if he's signing or not. I don't think there's overwhelming evidence that he won't sign.

 

Yeah, I’m probably jumping the gun a bit. Reading too much twitter I guess.

[LouisEly]

History is not on the side of 1st round picks who refuse to sign. I hope Turang realizes that.

 

Given that it's been three years since a first round pick hasn't signed (and it cost Funkhouser ~$1M by not doing so), I'd put the odds of Turang not signing at around 2% (meaning 98% chance he signs).