2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB

4th-rder Aaron Ashby signs w/@Brewers for $520k (pick 125 valoue = $438,300). Crowder (Mo.) JC LHP, led jucos in K (156) & K/9 (18.8), curveball is his strikeout pitch, also added velo & had 91-94 mph fastball at end of season. Andy Ashby's nephew, Tennessee recruit. @MLBDraft

[And That]

Micah Bello signed for $550k, about $275k less than slot value, according to Jonathan Mayo.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB

5th-rder Justin Jarvis signs w/@Brewers for $327,100 (full pick 155 value). North Carolina HS RHP, low-90s fastball should add more velo as he fills out projectable frame, deceptive changeup with fade. UNC Wilmington recruit. @MLBDraft

[clancyphile]

Turang strikes me as an Alcides Escobar/Orlando Arcia with speed and OBP skills.

 

If he goes back to his old swing, I could see a .280/.380/.345 line, a .725 OPS. Not the best, but if he can add 25-30 steals, that would be something I can live with at short.

 

Then again, maybe he gets a power surge like JJ Hardy did. He's 18... plenty of time to develop.

[MillerParkSouth]

I really don't like how people on Twitter are making it seem like Turang is going to be a difficult sign. I have to imagine that there were lengthy discussions about the number before we actually drafted him. Just get it done!

[MadScientist]

I really don't like how people on Twitter are making it seem like Turang is going to be a difficult sign. I have to imagine that there were lengthy discussions about the number before we actually drafted him. Just get it done!

I'm sure they have a general numbers worked out. There may be some variability depending on what others nearby sign for.

 

Also at this point a college offer isn't a huge amount of leverage. There just isn't that much of a chance of improving his draft status and a whole lot of chances to see it drop. Also if he does progress in college it a way that would make him a higher pick, he could do the same in the minors and be on the verge of the majors. Unless there was some undiagnosed injury or illness, I have to think he will sign shortly.

[Eye Black]

I really don't like how people on Twitter are making it seem like Turang is going to be a difficult sign. I have to imagine that there were lengthy discussions about the number before we actually drafted him. Just get it done!

I'm sure they have a general numbers worked out. There may be some variability depending on what others nearby sign for.

 

Also at this point a college offer isn't a huge amount of leverage. There just isn't that much of a chance of improving his draft status and a whole lot of chances to see it drop. Also if he does progress in college it a way that would make him a higher pick, he could do the same in the minors and be on the verge of the majors. Unless there was some undiagnosed injury or illness, I have to think he will sign shortly.

While it is typical for teams to come to a financial agreement before they draft players in the first round (especially high schoolers), I am not certain that was the case in this instance. Maybe it isn’t credible, but there has been at least one report that the Brewers allegedly did not discuss a financial framework with Brice Turang before selecting him (AUDIO via Tiger Rag Podcast: Turang discussion starts at the 8:45-mark). If Turang is indeed asking for $4 million and the Brewers are holding out at closer to $3 million, I could see it taking a bit of time while each side waits for the other to flinch.

 

I do believe Turang will sign with the Brewers, and would place the odds of him signing at >95%. Still, I think we could see something like the situation with LSU pitcher Alex Lange last year when he waited until the final minutes of the deadline to sign with the Cubs.

[Eye Black]

Initially missed this Tom Haudricourt comment yesterday afternoon. Not quite sure if Haudricourt’s “to have any chance” comment is a product of actual inside information or simply an opportunity to build dramatic tension? Perhaps some combination of the two.

 

@Haudricourt[/url]"]#Brewers have saved some slot money with early signings. Might need it to have any chance of signing first rounder Brice Turang.

[LouisEly]

Micah Bello signed for $550k, about $275k less than slot value, according to Jonathan Mayo.

I kind of figured this to be the case (under-slot signing) as this appeared to be a bit of an over-draft along with Bello's early indications that he was signing. Kind of odd to do an underslot HS kid in the 2nd round, but it happens in the first round so maybe not so strange.

[Austin Tatious]

Looks like the Brewers have saved a nice chunk of excess money to give both Turang and Gray over the slot deals. The Brewers can show both that they essentially did “all they could do” to get them the most money they could get in the way the system works.

[MrTPlush]

Initially missed this Tom Haudricourt comment yesterday afternoon. Not quite sure if Haudricourt’s “to have any chance” comment is a product of actual inside information or simply an opportunity to build dramatic tension? Perhaps some combination of the two.

 

@Haudricourt[/url]"]#Brewers have saved some slot money with early signings. Might need it to have any chance of signing first rounder Brice Turang.

 

Not buying it. We loved Turang and have loved him for years. He was probably one of the top guys on our board including everyone that went before him. I don’t buy it for a second that the Brewers didn’t talk to a guy they have adored for years about what his signing bonus wants were.

 

Passing up our offer just wouldn’t make a lot of financial sense. Going to LSU for three years will slow down his development to some degree. I have a hard time believing that is worth gambling for a little more money in 3 years.

 

Unless he has some crazy plan to go to junior college for a year he will be signing. If he doesn’t I wish him the best of luck on a highly questionable decision.

[JDBrewCrew]

Nick J. Faleris

@NickJFaleris

4m4 minutes ago

More Nick J. Faleris

Retweeted Jim Callis

Area scouts had Jarvis as a potential early-round target early in the spring before stuff settled some. Was floated as a potential seven-figure guy as late as April, but limited track record likely kept decision makers light on the profile. Good upside get for #Brewers.

[Eye Black]

As always, consider the source and decide for yourself in these instances...

 

A senior writer for LSU’s Rivals website (TigerBait.com) mentioned via a Tweet that “Turang will go right down to the deadline.”

 

 

Also probably worth noting, Jordyn Adams just became the first 1st round draft pick (among the first 30 picks) this year to sign for over-slot value. Understandably the guys that sign for over-slot value are going to require a longer process as teams need to guarantee their allotted pool money (and up to 5% taxed overage) are in order before signing those players.

[monkeyman343434]

Just trying to think of the pros for both Turang signing or not signing.

 

Signing: pro is obviously adding another top 10 organizational prospect, hope another solid SS who can stick at the position, hopefully still leaves some of the under slot $$ that's been saved with the guys who have already signed, to be able to sign some other guys in rounds 11+

 

Not signing: with the Brewers getting the compensation pick in the post-round 2 portion of the draft this year, this means they get the competitive balance pick after round 1 in 2019, correct? So this would mean, if things shake out roughly the same as things stand right now, they could be looking at something like picks 22 (from not signing Turang?), 25, and 38? 3 picks between 22 and 40 would allow them to get quite creative next year. For this year, as they've already signed a lot of guys under slot, and might be able to use that savings to bring in Cabell or some of the other round 11+ guys if Turang doesn't sign, that could also be a positive for this year.

 

Either way, I feel like it's a win-win.

[DHonks]

Don’t forget the bonus pool overages are percentage based. Failing to sign Turang not only loses a stud prospect, but takes away a large amount of both bonus pool and the overage. 5% of a bigger number means a bigger overage allowance

[markedman5]

Gray signing his weekend

 

https://twitter.com/brewcrewblue/status/1009919245529034754?s=21

[JDBrewCrew]

Brad Ford

@BrewCrewBlue

53m53 minutes ago

Joe Gray and Arbert Cipion sign their contracts at Miller Park this weekend.

 

Full tweet for those not on Twitter.

[MrTPlush]

If we fail to sign Turang and he is the only 1st rounder to not be signed that will give us pick #22 and #31 next year. Would really suck to get our other first round pick knocked back

[JDBrewCrew]

Chase Parham

Verified account

@RivalsChase

4h4 hours ago

I expect Joe Gray to get a signing bonus above slot but below his initial asking price. He’s looking at seven figures pre-tax, either way.

[KeithStone53151]

Chase Parham

Verified account

@RivalsChase

4h4 hours ago

I expect Joe Gray to get a signing bonus above slot but below his initial asking price. He’s looking at seven figures pre-tax, either way.

 

Does anyone know what his initial asking price was?

 

Based on the numbers at the link below, we had about $875k of excess to use to go above slot on our remaining players in the top 10(Turang, Gray, Rasmussen) plus anyone beyond the 10th signed to over $100k. That includes the 5%($330k) we can go over our total draft pool without losing a pick next year.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/6/4/17426206/milwaukee-brewers-2018-mlb-draft-and-signing-tracker

[MadScientist]

Chase Parham

Verified account

@RivalsChase

4h4 hours ago

I expect Joe Gray to get a signing bonus above slot but below his initial asking price. He’s looking at seven figures pre-tax, either way.

 

Anyone know what his asking price was?

[JDBrewCrew]

Guess no over slot.

 

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB

2nd-rder Joe Gray signs w/@Brewers for $1,113,500 (full pick 60 value). Mississippi HS OF, huge raw power & arm strength to match. Mississippi recruit. @MLBDraft

[monkeyman343434]

Things are looking really good for getting Turang, Rasmussen, and any of the other 11+ Round picks. Will be interested to see Cipion's bonus to know just what they're working with. Guessing even if he's above slot, it won't be too much.

[brooks_quichenick]

 

 

Todd Rosiak

‏Verified account

@Todd_Rosiak

 

"Joe Gray suited up and playing catch with Ed Sedar."

 

[Eye Black]

If the Brewers aren’t planning to sign any of their selections after the 10th round for over-slot deals they would have up to $4,151,895 to spend on their two remaining top ten players (Brice Turang and Arbert Cipion).

 

That number includes the 5% overage which comes with a tax penalty (Brewers went 5% over their draft bonus pool last year as well). If Cipion signs for his 9th round slot value ($146,200) that leaves $4 million for Turang, which was his rumored asking price.

 

I think Turang ultimately signs for less than that and the Brewers will take a stab at signing some additional later round picks, but either way they are in good shape with their remaining bonus pool.