2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

[Jose Cardenal1]

Cubs sure don't agree with MLB prospect list. 6 picks so far. 3 were not even in MLB's top 200. Other three were way over drafted relative to the rankings.

 

Likely means they will save a lot of bonus money to use on "tough sign" guys.

[trwi7]

Where is the "Funk" in his delivery?

 

Looks like his arm kind of drags and he throws from a high slot.

[KeithStone53151]

Cubs sure don't agree with MLB prospect list. 6 picks so far. 3 were not even in MLB's top 200. Other three were way over drafted relative to the rankings.

 

Is there any chance they are going excessively under slot to try and sign the Rocker/Wilcox's of the draft? Otherwise, yeah seems weird.

 

But then again, according to MLB their scouting was so good from 2011-2015 with their first round picks(all top 10) based on the results...we really shouldn't question their scouting. These guys will all become stars.

[SRB]

I like the sound of HS C Kameron Guangorena if he's still there when we pick.

[SRB]

Also HS RHP Landon Marceaux, assuming no signability issues

[And That]

Perfect Game on Aaron Ashby:

 

Perhaps the most prolific strikeout pitcher in all of baseball this season, not just at the JUCO level, Crowder's Aaron Ashby struck out 156 hitters in 74 2/3 innings, good for a ridiculous 18.80 strikeouts per nine innings. A solid-sized, athletic lefty, Ashby dominated his opponents all season long with a good mix of funk and stuff. He's capable of working into the low-90s with his fastball and moving it around the zone, and complements the fastball extremely well with a hammer breaking ball that projects to be a bat-missing pitch for the duration of his career. He's viewed more as a reliever in terms of projection, but has legitimate Major League upside with that breaking ball from the left side. He's committed to Tennessee, and if he should make it campus there would almost immediately become one of their top pitchers.

[Jose Cardenal1]

5th round so far seems like it is the round that everyone is trying to save some slot money.

[JDBrewCrew]

Bradley had a workout with the Brewers, he just went to the Rays

[amt2138]

Where is the "Funk" in his delivery?

 

He uses a lot of the timing variations ala Stroman but also has a lean towards third base that brings him up over the top more than most pitchers. Probably a good explanation for his 12-6 curve.

[And That]

Top 10 remaining (signable?) picks at #155:

 

Zach Waston, OF, LSU

Elijah Cabell, OF, TNXL Academy (FL)

Raynel Delgado, 3B/SS, Calvary Christian Academy (FL)

Zack Hess, RHP, LSU

Nick Northcut, 3B/RHP, Mason HS (OH)

Chandler Champlain, RHP, Santa Margarita Catholic HS (CA)

Kam Guangorena, C, St. John Bosco HS (CA)

Jaden Hill, Ashdown HS (WA)

Matt Mercer, RHP, Oregon

Jonathan Childress, LHP, Forney HS (TX)

[StearnsFTW]

Justin Jarvis.

 

HS RHP

[And That]

Reminder to please move discussion to the round 6-20 thread beginning with the next pick.

[monkeyman343434]

As an LSU fan, hoping this means Hess, Watson, and Cabell are all on campus next year.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks - hitting high school (and the juco) hard. I am betting it's by design. The lower reaches of the minors is fairly empty. We need an infusion of some juice into the bottom levels. We already have good depth A+ and above.

 

Ashby sounds terrific. Even if he can be a Taylor Williams type of arm for the pen, that's a victory.

[JDBrewCrew]

Carlos Collazo

Verified account

@CarlosACollazo

Heard 2018 NC RHP Justin Jarvis threw a perfect game with fewer than 100 pitches tonight. 18Ks. Up into the 94-95 mph range.

 

Brian Sakowski

@B_Sakowski_PG

Brewers take a guy we at PG really like in Justin Jarvis, prep RHP from NC. UNC-W signee, deceptive delivery, been to 95-96 this spring, projectable body, breaker is inconsistent but shows above avg., huge performer all last summer/fall

[3and2Fastball]

As an LSU fan, hoping this means Hess, Watson, and Cabell are all on campus next year.

 

As a fellow LSU fan, I agree... However I hope Turang isn't playing for LSU (but as a Brewers fan & LSU fan, I honestly see it as a "win/win situation")

[Jose Cardenal1]

Um, did Stearns & Co. stumble onto an undervalued trait? 4 of the 5 guys drafted weigh 170lbs or less. It's a little weird.

[JDBrewCrew]

Nathan Rode

@NathanRode

Had RHP Justin Jarvis at No. 97 in the High School Draft 100. Here are his tools from @PrepBaseballNC's report. #mlbdraft #Brewers

[monkeyman343434]

As an LSU fan, hoping this means Hess, Watson, and Cabell are all on campus next year.

 

As a fellow LSU fan, I agree... However I hope Turang isn't playing for LSU (but as a Brewers fan & LSU fan, I honestly see it as a "win/win situation")

 

Agreed, with Turang being gone basically no matter what, I was happy he went to the Brewers. Not sure if this is a good or bad thing though, that no other current player or signee has been picked. Sign of the level of talent decreasing? Will be nice to have a big part of the core back next year though.

[Jose Cardenal1]

btw Cubs went with another guy not in the top 200

[And That]

Perfect Game on Justin Jarvis:

 

Scouts have been fortunate this year in North Carolina as the state's two top pitchers, Lake Norman HS righthander Justin Jarvis and Carson HS righthander Owen White, go to school about 20 miles from each other. The two standouts are different types of pitchers and athletes, though, with White being older and more mature both physically in his approach to pitching while Jarvis has potentially more dynamic raw stuff and plenty of growth potential left.

 

Jarvis was a well known prospect entering the spring, with an exceptionally long list of premium Perfect Game tournaments and showcases under his belt and a very symmetrical development history since he first appeared at the2014 Atlantic Coast Underclass Showcase. At that event as a 14-year old, Jarvis topped out at 79 mph and showed surprising power on a curveball that worked in the low-70s from an over-the-top arm slot. He gradually progressed through the 80-90 mph range over the few years while retaining his tall and slender build, finally topping out at 93 mph at the 2017 PG National Showcase while showing a very fast arm coming through to go with a tight 76 mph curveball.

 

The question with all young pitching prospects, and especially athletes with Jarvis' slender build, is when their natural physical improvement curve is going to slow down and plateau. From his first start in early March this spring, it's been obvious that Jarvis had not peaked yet. He struck out 18 of 21 batters in an opening day perfect game and has regularly been hitting 95-96 mph with his fastball with increased power to his curveball while maintaining his raw stuff throughout the spring.

 

Jarvis' arm action does draw comments from evaluators, as he's very deep in the back in his takeaway and comes all the way up to a high three-quarters to overhand slot on release, making for lots of length and potential variables in the process. But the arm speed and raw stuff is elite level, and again, there is no real sign that Jarvis is near that natural peak yet as he keeps improving. The results on the mound have been equally impressive, as Jarvis has gone 8-0,1.49 on the season with 89 strikeouts and 23 walks in 51 innings.

 

Jarvis' name isn't tossed about among the top 10-15 high school righthanders in this deep high school pitching class but he is strongly in the next group, along with his fellow North Carolinian, White. Jarvis committed to UNC-Wilmington almost two years ago when he was still pitching in the mid-80s and has remained loyal to that early commitment ever since.

[Jenkins5]

Jarvis is very interesting pick. Appears to have loads up upside & has continued to trend up. At 6’3 165 & skinny, hard to believe it’s topped out yet with the strength Brewers will put on him over the next few years. Same could go far Ashby. DS believes in lottery picks strongly. Take the high ceiling & hope it works out. Buy enough lottery tickets eventually one will hit. That is verse taking high floor, excel in lower levels.... do okay in upper levels & at best are AAA or AAAA players.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Um, did Stearns & Co. stumble onto an undervalued trait? 4 of the 5 guys drafted weigh 170lbs or less. It's a little weird.

 

When they are high schoolers, it isn't weird at all.

[LouisEly]

What I've learned about the Brewers draft over the last few years is:

 

1) They know exactly what guys will sign for

 

B) Their MO w/r/t pitching seems to be lower risk and volume - guys in later rounds, particularly throwing $300K at a few HS guys in rounds 11-19

[OnTheBlack]

Keith, I think the key is that teams like the Brewers need to try to develop TOR pitchers. That's not the same as formulaically drafting them in the first two rounds if a position player you like better is sitting on your draft board.

 

Plenty of high-upside arms will be available today, and down the line the key is to trade for the future Bumgarners before they are Cy Young mainstays, when they have already proven themselves as established prospects but can be had in trades (hopefully one day we trade All Star SS Orlando Arcia because he's in his walk year and Turang is dominating AAA).

 

Roegner seems to be showing the promise to be that TOR arm... and he was a 22nd-round pick.

 

Judging by the continuous Suter hate in the in-game threads, it has already been decided that if a pitcher doesn't throw in the mid-90s, he is worthless.

 

 

These are the most frustrating types of talent. If you try and articulate how a soft tossing lefty who's several years older than average for his league and can't break 90 isn't a "potential TOR arm," you get these absurd type statements suggesting that people "hate" Suter and call him garbage just to exaggerate their point.

 

What Suter is....is a spectator on most real contending teams, OR maybe a loogy. He's done a fine job filling in a multitude of positions, but common sense tells you, he's not the guy you want facing anyone from Houston's rotation(for instance). Not sure why we can't BOTH be happy to see a guy with limited talent succeed and still acknowledge that he has...you know...limited talent!