2018 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5 [7/5 -- 1st rounder Turang signs]

[3and2Fastball]

I'd be fascinated to know the story behind Kumar Rocker. Could he have been had in the 1st Round if we went way over slot? And of course how will he turn out?

[narwhalattack]

You’re cherry picking your own rules. I could just as easily point to the top pitchers and where they were picked. We are talking about the draft today. The top pitchers are drafted high more often than not. The Brewers can’t afford some of the contracts where established pitchers move. That’s not an option. Top pitchers go high in the draft.

 

Who do you think the Brewers could have picked today who could be that top pitcher you speak of?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Top pitchers (the true TOR talents that only injury risk is a question) don't fall to #21 in any draft. Just because a pitcher was rated #12 on a board for this year's draft doesn't make him a Chris Sale that has to be gobbled up if he drops into the 20s.

 

Most drafts are lucky to have 2 pitchers in them that could one day be considered ace-caliber at the mlb level. So unless you are at the very top of a draft that has a verlander, kershaw, or baumgarner type talent that the whole baseball world knows is awesome, teams are probably better off going after position player talent early and play the pitching lotto in what I'd call the baseball draft mid rounds (3 through 10).

[Eye Black]

I am kind of curious who would win a 40-yard dash between the Brewers three picks today?

[And That]

I personally would have taken Denaburg or Hankins over Turang. They both are at least TOR starter kits. Who knows if either makes it though.

[SRB]

You’re cherry picking your own rules. I could just as easily point to the top pitchers and where they were picked. We are talking about the draft today. The top pitchers are drafted high more often than not. The Brewers can’t afford some of the contracts where established pitchers move. That’s not an option. Top pitchers go high in the draft.

 

I think empirically, the top pitchers are not necessarily picked high in the draft. That's because pitching prospects are so variable and difficult to predict. If you have a guy who is a top-10 pick, sure, but that's not where we're picking this season. It seems perfectly reasonable (assuming this is what the front office is doing) to prefer positional prospects in this range who can be traded later as needed. I guarantee you they are going to load up on some starting pitchers tomorrow who they think/hope/pray could become the next deGrom or Kluber. And they could be right about one of them!

[Eye Black]

I personally would have taken Denaburg or Hankins over Turang. They both are at least TOR starter kits. Who knows if either makes it though.

Yeah, I can’t necessarily argue with that since both of those pitchers look really impressive and would have been nice picks, but I think Brice Turang is going to be a fun player to watch develop.

[narwhalattack]

I personally would have taken Denaburg or Hankins over Turang.

 

Not sure if I would have. HS pitchers are very volatile to begin with, and they had to deal with injuries. They may be better now, but I’m still not certain as to how they will hold up. This is especially the case with Hankins- shoulder issues are not something to be taken lightly.

 

I guess for me the risks outweigh the reward.

[Jenkins5]

You’re cherry picking your own rules. I could just as easily point to the top pitchers and where they were picked. We are talking about the draft today. The top pitchers are drafted high more often than not. The Brewers can’t afford some of the contracts where established pitchers move. That’s not an option. Top pitchers go high in the draft.

 

Again, you can always trade for pitching. I doubt Brewers said coming into these drafts that they will not draft pitching. Just way the board works out. You take who you feel is going to be the best mlb player regardless of position.... this isn’t NFL where you draft based on needs. All these kids are 3-6 years away. If that upsets you that their board hasn’t worked out to your pitching liking really 2 options.... become brewer scout & make your case in war room or kick your feet in the sand. Plan & simple. You play your board you spent every day for a year working on. If you have more confidence in signing & that player being a better mlb player, why would you take someone you are less confident in because we need SPs now?

[Eye Black]

Some very high praise from the Brewers staff in this Wisconsin State Journal Article about Brice Turang:

Brewers select high school shortstop Brice Turang with 21st pick in draft

 

A couple of quotes from the article...

 

Milwaukee’s brass had plenty of opportunity to observe Turang during the past few years. He played for the Brewers’ entry in the annual Area Code games, which last season was managed by regional scouting supervisor Josh Belovsky with area scout Wynn Pelzer serving on the coaching staff.

 

“He’s been on our map for years,” Belovsky said. “As a freshman, he was on the varsity team. He’s always had an innate ability to hit.”

 

..........................

 

“He can stay at shortstop; he’s a premium defender there,” Belovsky said. “We’re getting a guy who can potentially be an All-Star and hit at the top of the lineup for you. A plus runner, solid arm, leader on the field. A solid overall player.”

[KeithStone53151]

This draft gets more and more frustrating by the pick. Are we expecting to contend by trading for the Zach Davies and chase Anderson's of the world? That is not a blue print for success.

 

And to whoever mentioned we are following the cubs blue print, their pitching situation is almost exclusively free agent spending. They also drafted in the top 10 for 5 straight years and got a generational talent at number 2 overall.

 

Disagree strongly... Davies was a 1 for 1 trade for K-Rod.... Anderson was more of the throw in, Diaz was centerpiece. Not sure how you think having loaded system of players at a priemium position could not be used to get an Ace simply because Stearns hasn’t yet? You load system up, get logjam, and trade to improve MLB team. If it is SP & Stearns doesn’t have to sell soul to finish deal... he will do it. Not sure why you think because we draft a pitcher in 2nd or 3rd round, they will save our SP situation. Yo, Nelson, Odorizzi, and Jungmann very briefly are only ones to help at all in past decade & Odorizzi wasn’t for us. Burns was 4th round pick. Suter, Fiers, and others much later. Those are not stellar odds. Ponce, hasn’t been good in AA either. Medorois.... who knows what we have. Jeffress kind of can’t pitch for any other team.

 

So basically we shouldn't even try to develop our own pitchers and stick to one avenue for acquiring talented pitchers, and that is hope the right pitcher/situation falls in our lap and another team doesn't outbid us? This season specifically, we'll have a very tough time getting substantial deadline help and holding hiura. It's not like with this draft strategy we'll eventually have 5 hiuras and be able to comfortably trade 1 while keeping 4.

 

Continually refusing to take pitchers early significantly reduces our chances of developing a talented one. This is clearly a strategy thing seeing as though it's happened the last 3 years, and it's beyond frustrating. This is like an nfl team refusing to take a qb early in the draft ever, but instead hoping to get tom Brady in a late round. That reality is they end up with a perpetual Trent dilfer situation and 6-9 wins each season. This strategy will lead to rotations like the one we have currently.

[KeithStone53151]

You’re cherry picking your own rules. I could just as easily point to the top pitchers and where they were picked. We are talking about the draft today. The top pitchers are drafted high more often than not. The Brewers can’t afford some of the contracts where established pitchers move. That’s not an option. Top pitchers go high in the draft.

 

Again, you can always trade for pitching. I doubt Brewers said coming into these drafts that they will not draft pitching. Just way the board works out. You take who you feel is going to be the best mlb player regardless of position.... this isn’t NFL where you draft based on needs. All these kids are 3-6 years away. If that upsets you that their board hasn’t worked out to your pitching liking really 2 options.... become brewer scout & make your case in war room or kick your feet in the sand. Plan & simple. You play your board you spent every day for a year working on. If you have more confidence in signing & that player being a better mlb player, why would you take someone you are less confident in because we need SPs now?

 

Except you can't. #2 or better starters aren't readily available every deadline. Sonny Gray and verlander were the best 2 last deadline, and at the time of trade verlander looked fairly finished...era around 4 and down velocity. I doubt any of the hamels, archer, stroman group will perform as well as those guys. True difference makers like a Chris sale are obscenely expensive and rare. And I don't see teams lining up to trade young up and coming star pitchers anymore.

[narwhalattack]

This draft gets more and more frustrating by the pick. Are we expecting to contend by trading for the Zach Davies and chase Anderson's of the world? That is not a blue print for success.

 

And to whoever mentioned we are following the cubs blue print, their pitching situation is almost exclusively free agent spending. They also drafted in the top 10 for 5 straight years and got a generational talent at number 2 overall.

 

Disagree strongly... Davies was a 1 for 1 trade for K-Rod.... Anderson was more of the throw in, Diaz was centerpiece. Not sure how you think having loaded system of players at a priemium position could not be used to get an Ace simply because Stearns hasn’t yet? You load system up, get logjam, and trade to improve MLB team. If it is SP & Stearns doesn’t have to sell soul to finish deal... he will do it. Not sure why you think because we draft a pitcher in 2nd or 3rd round, they will save our SP situation. Yo, Nelson, Odorizzi, and Jungmann very briefly are only ones to help at all in past decade & Odorizzi wasn’t for us. Burns was 4th round pick. Suter, Fiers, and others much later. Those are not stellar odds. Ponce, hasn’t been good in AA either. Medorois.... who knows what we have. Jeffress kind of can’t pitch for any other team.

 

So basically we shouldn't even try to develop our own pitchers and stick to one avenue for acquiring talented pitchers, and that is hope the right pitcher/situation falls in our lap and another team doesn't outbid us? This season specifically, we'll have a very tough time getting substantial deadline help and holding hiura. It's not like with this draft strategy we'll eventually have 5 hiuras and be able to comfortably trade 1 while keeping 4.

 

Continually refusing to take pitchers early significantly reduces our chances of developing a talented one. This is clearly a strategy thing seeing as though it's happened the last 3 years, and it's beyond frustrating. This is like an nfl team refusing to take a qb early in the draft ever, but instead hoping to get tom Brady in a late round. That reality is they end up with a perpetual Trent dilfer situation and 6-9 wins each season. This strategy will lead to rotations like the one we have currently.

 

Who do you think the Brewers could have picked today who could be that top pitcher you speak of?

[CheeseheadInQC]

It seems as if the Brewers have been ready to accept more risk in their search for pitching upside in the draft rather than using a high pick. They've gone with guys with injury issues (Kirby, Webb), disappointing college stats (Zack Brown, Hanhold), lower than usual floors even by high school pitcher standards (Walters, Lemons).

 

I will say, if they push these guys next season, outside of catcher they could have a very young Wisconsin lineup with Wilson Martinez, Carmona, Turing, McClanahan (I guess the old man of the group), Ward, Gray and Bello, and some combination of Pinero, Egnatuk, Coca, Familia, Lujano, Castillo and Abreu backing them up.

 

While it is probably unrealistic and would be entirely dependent on the draft board, you could make a case for spending the next 17 picks on pitchers and catchers. I wonder if they go with a catcher like Tyler Cropley for the usual eighth or ninth round position player senior sign.

[DHonks]

This draft gets more and more frustrating by the pick. Are we expecting to contend by trading for the Zach Davies and chase Anderson's of the world? That is not a blue print for success.

 

And to whoever mentioned we are following the cubs blue print, their pitching situation is almost exclusively free agent spending. They also drafted in the top 10 for 5 straight years and got a generational talent at number 2 overall.

 

Actually, trading mediocre hitting and free agent-to be relievers for 2 top pieces in a rotation sounds like a great strategy.

[DHonks]

We’ve got some good pitchers at the top levels of our system but the lower levels are barren.

 

It’s not the act of drafting pitchers that is a mistake. It’s that the Brewers have not made good decisions with pitching. Hence, they are terrified to do so

 

I don’t agree. There’s no evidence that they are terrified, but rather evidence they find value in trying to get everyday players over pitchers.

[Jenkins5]

Brewers have taken tons of pitchers over past 2 decades. If we over look hitting on Sheets early, please list off the early arms we have developed who have worked out? I’m not saying to not draft pitchers. I’m saying play your board. Unless you spend every day of the year traveling, breaking down film, meeting players, and etc that goes into developing the board....hard for me to listen to you say the board is wrong.... they needed to go pitching. I would have been fine drafting an arm. Overall though board didn’t fall that way. Draft is an absolute crap shoot. These kids now pitch year round & are blowing out there arms at record pace. The risk is huge!

 

Not saying bats are more likely to hit but you play the board & pray. You go with gut. You don’t take arms to say you took an arm even though you liked guys better elsewhere.

 

Two decades of Top 3 round pitchers & WAR

98

1. JM Gold 0

2. N. Neugy -0.2

 

99

1. Sheets 22.3

3. R. Lugo 1.3

 

00

3. Eric Henderson 0

 

01

1. M. Jones 0

3. John Steinz 0

 

02

3. Eric Thomas 0

 

03

None

 

04

1. Mark Rogers 1.1

2. Yo Gallardo 21.8

 

05

3. W. Inman 0

 

06

1. Jeffress 6.1

 

07

None

 

08

1s J. Odorizzi 8.6

1s E. Fredrickson 0

2 Seth Lintz 0

3. Cody Adams 0

 

09

1. Eric Arnett 0

1s Kyle Hecklethorn 0

 

10

1 Covey -0.2

2 J. Nelson 4.1

3. Thornburg 3.9

 

11

1. Jungmann 1.1

1. Bradley 0

2. J Lopez 0.1 still some hope as RP

3. D. Gagnon 0

 

12

None

 

13

2. Devin Williams 0 injuries

3. Barrett Astin 0

 

14

1. Medeiros 0 Progressing, prob RP

3. Cy Sneed 0 traded

 

15

1. N. Kirby 0 injuries

2. C. Ponce 0 trending down

3. Nash Walters 0 yet to leave Rookie ball

 

16

3. Webb coming along in A+

 

17

2. C. Lemons too early

 

I could same for bats but we have hit more times there thankfully but plenty of misses.

 

Sheets Yo Jimmy have gave us a WAR of 48.2

 

Jeffress & Thorny as RPs mostly another 10.5

 

All others combined who pitched in Milwaukee 2.2 (Rogers & Jungmann)

 

Call it bad scouting or development. Many of those guys had high ceilings to be Aces Neugy, Jones, Rogers but arms fell off. Again Brewers play their board & go with who they are most confident in. Doesn’t matter position. Most will fail so you cross your fingers. We have done the reverse where we took a pitcher & looked back and wish we would have took the stud bat instead. It’s a crapshoot.

[Jenkins5]

I just find it crazy that us as fans who merely read scouting reports & look at some clips sit here & act like they know more about who should be where on their boards. Top 5 or 10 pick I get it. Ray, Puk, or Groome a little easier to debate where elite top 10 talent should be. But we are talking about late first, 2nd, & 3rd round picks! Outside of Colby & very few others on this board can educationally argue a teams board or not picking someone instead. Just because BA listed this pitcher #40 & says he throws 95 with a possible plus change, developing breaking ball that could be above average with good command of strike zone doesn’t mean that player is who Brewers should pick. Position doesn’t matter. You add the best possible talent in your eyes to the system with hopes you hit.

[Jenkins5]

Just watched JJ Cooper’s Facebook live & he raved about Brewers Day 1. “I love love love this Brewers draft” is how he starts it out. DS is always stressing value value value & that is really what Cooper hits on. The value you get with Turang at 21, Gray Jr. at 60, and then Bello at 78. Reminded him of the high upside approach as well they did with Medeiros Harrison, Gatewood (Harrison has blossomed, Mederous still super young in AA has flashed, and Gatewood continues to grow & improve despite awful April.... still too streaky)

 

Again really like what they have done. Sure we will see some college arms come off here. 3-5 have brought pretty useful arms for us in recent past as prospects and/trade guys. 3rd Thornburg, Astin (trade), Sneed (trade), Quintana (trade) Webb, 4th Wagner (trade) T. Williams, Burns, B. Murphy 5th Z. Brown. Guess Nick Ramirez fits now as well.

[sveumrules]

Really like that the Brewers ended up with three athletic, high school kids. Should be fun to follow.

 

I also tend not to get worked up about who gets picked or what position they play because 1) hopefully the Brewers know way more about these kds than I do & B) any impact made is going to be so long from now that who knows what our specific needs will be at that point.

 

Take Ray & Puk. For most of the time since their draft it has looked like we whiffed on acquiring that potential TOR starter while Ray struggled/stagnated. Now Puk is recovering from TJ while Ray is tearing up the Southern League.

[Eye Black]

Pre-draft article on Micah Bello...

 

Hawaii Tribune Herald: Bello primed to be Big Island’s next big hit

[JDBrewCrew]

Adam McCalvy

Verified account

@AdamMcCalvy

Tod Johnson on Brewers 2nd rounder Joe Gray: "We were real excited to add him at pick 60 because there was some considerations of him going well before there. … We were pretty excited that we were able to sign him. Great kid, too. Real outgoing, gregarious kind of kid."

 

Looks like they agreed on a number for Gray.

[paul253]

Now Puk is recovering from TJ while Ray is tearing up the Southern League.

 

I wouldn’t exactly say Ray is “tearing up” the Southern League. He’s hitting .250 with a pretty decent OPS. But really I think one of the big reasons people are so excited about his year so far is because how awful he’s been up until this point.

[sveumrules]

Tearing it up might be a little aggressive, but Ray currently has a 123 wRC+ built on a nice walk rate (11.7%) combined with a .210 isolated slugging (7th in the SL) while also being the most efficient base stealer in the league.

[brwrsfan]

Anyone I should be hoping for today? I don’t follow the draft nearly as closely as some of you do.

 

What’s the deal with Beck? Injury concerns still?