Midseason top 100 (update post 22: Hiura #5 prospect in Baseball Prospectus midseason update)

[adambr2]

Just to throw out some guesses from what we've seen so far, considering graduations:

 

- Hiura will move up somewhere low top 30

- Ray will move back into the top 100, probably somewhere in the 60s or 70s.

- Burnes and Peralta will both be low top 100s.

 

 

That's all. But that would be a pretty solid system with a top 30 and four top 100s, considering the depth.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I actually think Gatewood could creep towards that #100 mark as well if he keeps producing in Biloxi...perhaps not midseason but end of 2018. Since he's a guy that I believe the Brewers would need to subject to the Rule 5 draft if he isn't added to the 40 man roster in the offseason, to me he's an interesting prospect to consider headlining a deadline trade.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Dubon and Nottingham, if healthy, could have broke into the top 100. Maybe Nottingham still has a chance if he returns soon and continues to hit.

[trwi7]

Gatewood? The guy with the sub .300 OBP?

[reillymcshane]

Gatewood? The guy with the sub .300 OBP?

Must be a different Gatewood. Our Jake Gatewood has an OBP of .304.

[reillymcshane]

Nottingham will have issues due to his injuries. He just hasn't played that much.

 

Dubon won't make it due his injury. He was doing just fine, but 108 quality ABs at Colorado Springs isn't going to be enough to get him on the top 100 list. Not after a major injury.

 

After his brutal start, Gatewood would have to have to really keep up his hot play to get consideration. I just don't see him there at this time.

 

Peralta, Burnes and Ray are probably all borderline guys as well, but I think each would probably make it.

 

Ortiz is another former Top 100 guy who could slip in if he stay healthy and pitches well, but at this time, he doesn't quite make the cut. Maybe down the road.

 

Another guy who will draw some interest is Zach Brown. However, even if he keeps up his stellar play, he probably won't get everyone's attention quite yet. Most people have seen him as a bullpen arm - but that may change if he keeps producing. Maybe in the offseason.

 

Brett Phillips has been pretty 'meh' this year - so unless he really steps up his game, he won't make it.

 

In all honesty, so much can happen over the next 4-6 weeks, it makes this kind of a futile exercise. But it's fun to think about it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gatewood? The guy with the sub .300 OBP?

 

yep, until tonight's game where it crawled up over 0.300 after hitting his Southern League-leading 10th HR. I stated in my previous post that he'd be approaching Top 100 status if he keeps producing and it'd be more likely at season's end than mid-2018...guess to be specific it would be for him to keep producing more like he has in May (0.300 BA, ~.350 OBP, ~.550 SLG, .900 OPS) than his dreadful April start (sub-.600 OPS) that is still an anchor on his season statlines.

 

From an OPS standpoint, Gatewood has had the same May as Corey Ray, which has been the body of work that has gotten Ray back into the Top 100 conversation. He's also a year younger than Ray...

[Eye Black]

It’s interesting to see how starkly the statistical outputs of Corey Ray and top 100 Orioles prospect OF Austin Hays have swapped this year in Double-A. Both 2016 draftees out of college, I am interested to see where those two rank in relation to one another on mid-season updates. Hays has had more success overall at the professional level (and had a brief MLB call-up), but Ray has been much better statistically this season. Probably still too early for significant movement, but I would assume Ray will sneak back into the lower fourth of some top-100 lists.

[WV Brew]

Frederick is the one bandbox in the Carolina League and Austin Hays surely benefitted from that. Ray's numbers would have been higher if he had played half his games there. It is a fun park to watch a game in though.

[Outlander]

I would agree that Gatewood could get into the top 100 if his May is the new normal but far too often he has months like he had in April. Would like to see a high level month to month and not just here and there.

[JosephC]

I haven't seen anything that makes me think the Brewer top 100 rankings should change much at all. Hiura should be in the 40's unless there have been enough graduates ahead of him to bump him into the 30s (which I don't think will happen). Burnes may not have flashy ERA and WHIP but he is still posting nearly a 3:1 K:BB ratio and has a really reasonable HR allowed rate for pitching in Colorado...don't see his stock changing much at all. Ray's stock is on the upswing but probably not enough to push him back in the top 100 although it should be close (and I wouldn't be all that surprised to see him back in the 90's). Peralta should get some consideration but I think the walk rate, and if he is a reliever long-term, will probably keep him out.

 

Only real significant change IMO is Erceg, who I believe was on one or two top 100 lists at the beginning of the season. At .289 OBP/.615 OPS this season, and now sitting at a career .324 OBP/.755 OPS in 1000+ MiLB plate appearances, he really shouldn't be given top 100 consideration. Not that there is anything wrong with .324/.755...it's just not top 100 quality when talking about a corner infielder past the 1000 PA mark.

 

I also don't see Gatewood getting anything close to top 100 recognition. The difference between Ray and Gatewood is that Gatewood is a first baseman and it's likely that 100% of the respect he gets will come from his bat. Ray has hit this year but also have plus upside as a versatile defensive outfielder and could prove to be a real asset when running the bases. So far this year Gatewood is a .304 OBP/.769 OPS and sits at .297 OBP/.700 OPS over his whole MiLB career. Don't see those numbers getting top 100 consideration when talking about a first baseman. Intriguing second or third piece in a trade as a possible power bat down the road...that's something I'd totally get on board with.

[And That]

Yah, I don’t think Gatewood is a top 100 or even 200 guy right now but keep in mind that he’s only 22. Almost exactly a full year younger than Ray. There aren’t a ton of 22 year olds with 300+ PAs in AA, and many that do fit that criteria are top 100 types. There’s plenty of reason to be bullish on Gatewood despite his bumpy path to this point.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Part of the issue for Gatewood is that it takes a fair amount for a first baseman to make those lists. MLB.com had three on its one, and while I'm guessing Pavin Smith and a couple of the other ones who made their top 10 first basemen are likely falling, McKay and Bauers likely aren't, and at this point would you really put Gatewood ahead of Alonso or Naylor? May has been great, but given that he is a right-handed first baseman who hasn't posted an .800+ OPS outside of Helena, he probably needs to post something like a .270/.350/.530, 30 home run type season to have a shot at the postseason lists.

[JDBrewCrew]

Baseball America just announced their revised midseason Top 100.

 

Huera was 43rd

Burnes was 69th

Peralta was 97th

[reillymcshane]

Baseball America just announced their revised midseason Top 100.

 

Huera was 43rd

Burnes was 69th

Peralta was 97th

That's about what I'd expected. Wondered if Ray would sneak in - but I totally get it. 50 games doesn't change the past year and a half.

[PlayerHader]

Seems quite early for a mid-season list.

[reillymcshane]

Seems quite early for a mid-season list.

1/3 season list?

 

I think it has something to do with the draft. This way they don't have to incorporate all the new picks into the Top 100.

[reillymcshane]

Seems quite early for a mid-season list.

I think you're going to see this more and more often. The reason is that it produces traffic. A year or so ago I read a chat or interview with Dave Cameron - when he was still at Fangraphs - and he said that lists of any kind are what draws clicks. People just love lists, and can't get enough of them. It used to be you'd get one list a year from an outlet. Now they do more because a) people click on them, and b) their competitors are doing them, so they should do them as well.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America just announced their revised midseason Top 100.

 

Huera was 43rd

Burnes was 69th

Peralta was 97th

That's about what I'd expected. Wondered if Ray would sneak in - but I totally get it. 50 games doesn't change the past year and a half.

I took a look at it trying to be as unbiased as possible (so basically still completely biased). I used “which prospects would I be willing to trade straight up for Hiura” as a guide. I will spare you the details of which exact players I chose, but I came up with 23 players ahead of Hiura for me. If he continues to perform at Double-A I believe Hiura will end up in that top-25 territory by the end of the season updates even with the new draftees being added soon.

[adambr2]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/7/13/17568026/milwaukee-brewers-keston-hiura-is-a-top-5-prospect-in-baseball-according-to-baseball-prospectus

 

Baseball Prospectus ranks Keston Hiura as the #5 prospect in baseball in their midseason update. He was the only Brewer in the top 50.