Pitching at the deadline

[Madhawk23]

OK - I'm guessing that most of us will agree that we are going to need some starting pitching help at the deadline this year. While we've been able to manage just fine through the first 55 games this year, we still don't have anyone in our rotation that I'd feel comfortable with going up against another team's "ace" pitcher. And, if our goal this year is to win the division (or at least make the playoffs), then we really are going to need someone that at least resembles a #1 in our rotation. I had hopes that Chase could be that guy, but he's really struggled. We have literally no idea what (if anything) we'll get from Jimmy this year, and Davies has had his issues as well.

 

With that said, and knowing how DS likes to operate - do we think that we are more likely to pursue a TOR arm that has at least a few years left on his contract, but is then going to cost us potentially both of our remaining elite prospects (Hiura/Burnes). Or, do we think that DS will want to keep the top prospects and instead try to get a guy that's in his final year and likely wouldn't cost as much?

 

From what I can tell, here are some names that could (emphasis on "could")be available this July:

 

Multiple years remaining:

deGrom

Archer

Stroman

Bumgarner

Fulmer

Duffy

Manaea

Hamels

 

Rentals:

Happ

Ross

Liriano

 

Am I missing anyone of significance that might make one of these two lists above?

 

Which direction do you think DS and company will take in July? Or, do we literally stand pat and hope that we get last year's Jimmy Nelson back and hope that Peralta/Burnes can help out as needed down the stretch? Again, I know it's too early to think about the playoffs, but I do think we are going to need an upgrade in the rotation if we have big goals we want to reach this year. However, I also hate to see us give up our remaining top prospects and gut our farm system, as that does not seem to fit well into DS's plan to build a consistently competitive team year in and year out.

[pacopete4]

I think he stands pat with Nelson coming back. I think he believes in the guys he's got right now to get the job done and won't want to give up more assets. I could be wrong but I think we over-do it a bit with undervaluing our own.

 

I'll just say I want to have sustained success. Not just a 1-2 year window because we had a hot May in year two of a rebuild.

[bill hAll Star]

Liriano is Brent Suter with a luckier start to the season.

 

I'd consider Ross, Happ, and a compelling argument would have to be made for the top list. I probably convince myself that the asking price is going to be too high for most of them. I mean it's not like getting deGrom would be a bad thing but I just am too afraid of the depressing idea of still missing the playoffs and emptying the farm.

[Madhawk23]

I tend to agree with both of you that I'd be really afraid to gut our farm system for a TOR arm. As much as we'd all love to have a guy like deGrom to our rotation, I just feel like pitchers are so volatile and so injury prone that a deal like this could completely blow up in our face and set our franchise back 3-4 years again. I'd hate to see us give up guys like Hiura and Burnes, when they are guys that should be very productive players for us over the next 5-6 years (and very cheap). At the same time, I also want to see this franchise win a WS really badly, and opportunities to do that don't come around as often as you'd like - so making a run at it by getting a TOR arm would certainly be exciting.

 

Really a tough call, and I guess I'm glad that DS gets to make these tough decisions, and not me.

[Madhawk23]

If we were to go after a rental like Happ or Ross, what do you think we'd have to give up to get a guy like that? Would Houser alone bring back one of those two guys, or would we need to add someone else in - like Houser/Stokes? I know we had to just give up Cordell last year to get Swarzak - but Swarzak was a reliever, and I'm guessing a SP would cost us a bit more?

 

Would people be OK giving up Houser/Stokes for a guy like Happ or Ross - knowing that you'd only have them for the remainder of this season?

 

Again - a tough call, especially if you think that Peralta and Burnes could come up and give you just as much (without the veteran leadership) as either of those two trade candidates.

[tmwiese55]

I would guess they don't do anything and continue to ride/bank on the bullpen strategy they've been using so far. However, if they did something I'd rather pay in money rather than prospects so a guy like Hamels would be fine since I don't think you'd have to give up any prospects to eat that money. I know he's not what he was and I'm not exactly advocating for it, just saying I'd rather pay money than prospects and a guy like him falls in that category. I think I saw something a week or so back about him adding a pitch or changing something that has led to better results for him this year, so maybe his ok start to the year is sustainable.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hypothetically, could SD & Toronto make QO's to Ross & Happ? Unless I've missed something, it looks like neither has been QO'd previously. Both should be eligible for one.

 

If that's true, the value we might need to beat would be equivalent to the sandwich- round immediately after the 1st round. I suppose either player might be enticed to accept the QO, though -- Happ moreso. Maybe Toronto wouldn't offer him.

 

Would people be OK giving up Houser/Stokes for a guy like Happ or Ross - knowing that you'd only have them for the remainder of this season?

I think I'd be ok with Hasuer+Stokes for either, but I'm not sure how excited either club would be with either prospect, compared against a comp pick. Stokes has developed some pop, but I'm not sure his pure hit tool is sharp enough to be more than a 4th OF (a good one, but still not a starter on a good team).

 

Hauser went #2-9 in the 2011 draft, so he's a decent example of the type of player available with the comp picks. But in his age-25 season, is he attractive enough to a rebuilding project like the Pads or Blue Jays?

 

I feel like Hauser+Stokes would be the lower end of what would get it done. The earlier you look to make the move, probably the less competition you have, so maybe it's worth floating that offer to see what the response is.

 

EDIT: I do agree with tmwiese, & think Stearns will stick with what we've got in-house. The club has done a nice job cycling through the younger arms (Houser included), & if I had to bet I'd bet against a trade for Happ or Ross.

[Madhawk23]

TooLive: you are probably right that a Houser/Stokes package may not be enough to even get someone like Ross or Happ, and honestly I'm not sure if I'd want to go any higher than those two guys in a deal for a SP rental?

 

Not to belabor the deGrom talk too much - but does everyone think that it would take BOTH Burnes and Hiura to get him from the Mets? Or, do you think we could package a deal around either Burnes/Peralta and someone like Corey Ray (assuming he continues on the upward trend)? Maybe throw in someone like Medeiros or Supak and then a lower level guy? I'm guessing that they would want our top two guys for deGrom, but there's no way I'm giving up both of those guys for anyone at the deadline if I'm DS.

[OnTheBlack]

I think Stearns has to wait and see what he's getting from Aguilar/Braun and Santana, plus how Nelson looks before he makes a move. I personally have a lot of confidence that we're going to get a lot of production from that 3rd OF spot and 1st base and that Aguilar's approach makes him a really good long term hitter, but if we get Nelson back and he looks good, I think the chances go up that he and Mark A are willing to make a big move at the deadline.

 

I think Cole Hamels still has a bit left in the tank and would be a great fit here if we could get him without having to give up any elite prospects. A lefty who is still above 9 K's per 9, and still has good stuff. His option isn't likely to vest(though I would suspect we would have to pick up next years option in order to get him to waive a no trade IF he has one).

 

And while this is off topic, I noticed when I was looking at Hamel's contract, Alec Asher was one of the pieces the Rangers traded to Philly for Hamel's several years ago.

[TooLiveBrew]

TooLive: you are probably right that a Houser/Stokes package may not be enough to even get someone like Ross or Happ, and honestly I'm not sure if I'd want to go any higher than those two guys in a deal for a SP rental?

Agreed. As I typed out my last post, you can kinda see I eventually talked myself to that spot by the end. I feel like Freddy Peralta would be about the price point to get a deal done, but I don't want to pay that much.

 

I think Cole Hamels still has a bit left in the tank and would be a great fit here if we could get him without having to give up any elite prospects. A lefty who is still above 9 K's per 9, and still has good stuff. His option isn't likely to vest (though I would suspect we would have to pick up next years option in order to get him to waive a no trade IF he has one).

Hamels is intriguing, but the notion that he might be able to force you to pick up his 2019 option makes me leery. From Cot's Contracts, Hamels has the ability to block trades to 20 teams in each season of the contract (my reading is that he can pick a new list of 20 each season). I'm guessing Milwaukee is probably among those 20 teams for 2018.

 

I'd see if Hamels would agree to waive his NTC without us picking up the '19 option, as a first step. If he said No, having to guarantee him $20M for next year as well would mean I wouldn't give up anything of real value, prospect-wise.

[brewmann04]

We should not get to involved with Rentals, but not how sure will we really know when Nelson is ready to go and how healthy and good he will be. It going to be curious to see who DS adds.