What should be DS targets

[MrTPlush]

Yah, not sure the depth really exists. Maybe depth as in quality #5 and #6 type guys. Not really guys we want to be staples in our playoff run THIS YEAR.

 

Suter- really shouldn’t want him starting every day

 

Davies- People really pushing the “struggles early on narrative” to feel better about his dismal season.

 

Woodruff- Has left a lot to be desired and also doesn’t seem to be the go-to guy you would think the Brewers should view him as.

 

Peralta- Without creativity won’t last anywhere near October.

 

Burnes- we sent him to the bullpen and obviously don’t view him as a starter this year.

 

Chacin and Guerra have been nice surprises, but is either actually capable of what they are doing?????

[pacopete4]

I still think the need for starting pitching on this team is overblown.

 

The organizational depth at SP is already extremely strong. I know you can't guarantee production from Nelson this year, but between Nelson, Peralta, and Burnes, our answers are likely already in-house.

 

I just don't think it wise to rely on two rookies, one with zero MLB experience, one with 2 very good MLB starts (and 1 not-so-good), and a guy that isn't really throwing yet.

 

I think the depth is somewhat smoke-and-mirrors. Anderson is pitching worse than last year, Davies has been hurt/ineffective, and we're lucky if we're getting QS out of the likes of Woodruff/Peralta/Suter/insert name here. Chacin and the re-emergence of Guerra have been bright spots in an otherwise fairly dismal rotation so far this year. They're doing enough to win, which has largely been a product of the bullpen eating 3-4 innings every single night, which has worked well so far, but that HAS to start catching up to them.

 

I don't think we have the luxury to let a guy like Burnes adjust to the majors in the middle of a playoff race.

 

I should clarify -- I think between Nelson, Peralta, and Burnes, our options are likely in-house long-term -- not necessarily this season.

 

I'm ok with selling off decent prospects that are potentially part of the roster crunch anyway, for upgrades anywhere, not necessarily starters.

 

I don't think it would be wise to sell off major assets because of not wanting to count on Peralta, Nelson, and Burnes for postseason 2018. We're not as good as the Cubs are yet, and someone like Happ doesn't change that. This could be a wild card team, but I'd rather roll with who we got and see what happens rather than invest significantly in a 1 game playoff.

 

If you want to sell off guys out of roster crunch guys to give us a little better shot this year, sure. But this team should still be looking at the big picture.

 

Bingo.

[Lathund]

Yah, not sure the depth really exists. Maybe depth as in quality #5 and #6 type guys. Not really guys we want to be staples in our playoff run THIS YEAR.

 

That highlights the ever present question of this year vs (the) next (few) year(s). Firstly one has to ask what kind of success can be had this year? And how far do we go to achieve that? As much as we like to not believe it, the Cubs are still very good. Winning the division will be very difficult, even with strengthening the rotation. It's not impossible, but the WC is still the msot likely route. How much to bet on a 1-off game? And if we win the WC or the division, how far can we go? People will answer these questions differently, but I have a hard time seeing that any acquisitions made ahead of this deadline makes the World Series realistic. We're not catching up to the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox this year. And for whatever struggles they have had so far this year, likely not to the Dodgers, Cubs or Nationals either.

 

For a team like the Brewers to win anything, developing our players is the key. Acquisitions, whether through trade or free agency, can be part of it and can fill some holes, but when trying to build a contender you'll run out of currency (Prospects or salary space) long before you get there. So as much of it as possible needs to be homegrown (As in acquired as prospects, whether that is through trades or draft or international or minor league FA), to be supplemented by a few key acquisitions of established players.

 

Keeping prospects, letting them develop and establish themselves, carries with it a lot of risk. I heard it said a lot around the last deadline that Stearns was risk-averse, or didn't have the courage to "pull the trigger" on big trades, when that's really the other way around. Trading prospects for major leaguers reduces risk (as in volatility) and uncertainty, but it reduces your potential winnings. Even in a balanced and fair trade where both teams assess the worth of players correctly, the team acquiring the prospects will, and should, get more overall production out of it. On average. As in, they could also get absolutely nothing. So when trading prospects for a presently valuable asset, you remove (To the extent that you ever can) the risk of getting nothing in exchange for getting a known quantity of something, at the cost of turning down your chance at the jackpot.

 

Now, whether you do that or not should depend on this: Do you need to win the jackpot to reach your goal? Or is that "something" you acquire enough to get you there? I'd argue that for the 2018 Brewers, the former is the case. For the Cubs when looking at Chapman, for the Astros when looking at Verlander or for the Red Sox when looking at Sale I'd argue that it's the latter.

 

This is all a long-winded way for me to say that my belief is that the Brewers should give up very little of the future in order to strengthen in 2018. I obviously don't know exactly what a DeGrom would cost, or that Hiura and Peralta/Burnes or Woodruff/Ortiz (As I find it hard to believe he would cost less than Hiura plus one from each pair) will ever amount to anything, but considering the rest of the roster I believe that the chance of success, and especially sustained success, is greater when *not* making that trade. Now, if it's a question of acquring the SP equvalent of Neil Walker or Anthony Swarzak (i.e a rental who will still contribute significantly in 2018) for the equivalent cost of Ryan Cordell or a PTBNL then by all means that's a different matter to me.

[Chicago Here]

Why do people act like they know what Stearns' style is? He hasn't been here long enough to have a style.

I think Stearns has shown his style thus far to be the acquisition of controllable players via trade (Yelich, Shaw) or reclamation projects (Chacin, Guerra). Does not mean that long term or even this season that will be his play but I do believe if a deal is made to acquire something significant, it will be for a Syndergaard, Archer type (someone under long term team control) or a Happ, Ross, etc... (a rental but not going to cost a ton in prospect capital) versus an expensive rental like Machado.

I agree. Im not so zure though that he was aggressive enough before the trading deadline and it came back to haunt him. No such mistake in the offseason with serious investment. Such investment will no doubt be followed up this summer with a final additional investment to secure the division and go to the world series.

Most likely obtain an all star caliber player or veteran rental. Nothing any less since we are at the top of the league. No time to be cheap.

[Bnowell4evr]

Keston Hiura, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz are all off the table in my world. Because of that, I would target short term rentals who won't cost a ton.

 

1. Wilson Ramos - C

2. Manny Machado or Jose Iglesias - SS

 

I'd offer Woodruff + an outfielder for Machado and if that's not enough (which it won't be) then I would turn my attention to Iglesias. We should be able to cobble enough production out of 2B between Villar, Miller and Perez.

[MadThinker88]

Keston Hiura, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz are all off the table in my world. Because of that, I would target short term rentals who won't cost a ton.

 

1. Wilson Ramos - C

2. Manny Machado or Jose Iglesias - SS

 

I'd offer Woodruff + an outfielder for Machado and if that's not enough (which it won't be) then I would turn my attention to Iglesias. We should be able to cobble enough production out of 2B between Villar, Miller and Perez.

 

Machado (even as a rental) will cost a ton.

 

As for your untouchables, I can understand the first 3 names but I need you to explain why Luis Ortiz.

 

Ortiz has yet to pitch 100 innings in ANY season so far and if I read his record correctly Ortiz will need to be added to the 40 man this off-season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft in Dec 2018. If he remains healthy, now maybe the time to move him while you can get some value in return.

[Austin Tatious]

Regarding Ortiz, I concur. He’s got an advanced repertoire with two plus pitches, good control, and two additional pitches. The 40 man thing doesn’t bother me, because you’d expect a prospect with his profile and pedigree to be put on the 40.

 

But, I agree with your point about his innings. I assume it’s a conditioning thing.

 

It’s not popular yet, but I’d rate Zack Brown higher and not be moving him at all. The Brewers are still blessed with good depth of starters and relievers (Medeiros) bubbling up at double A and higher. You could move a couple and *still* have good depth. I’d prefer not to move Peralta, Burnes, Zack and Kodi. But, you’d still have the likes of Woodruff, Ortiz, and Ponce to move if you wish.

[Bnowell4evr]

Keston Hiura, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes and Luis Ortiz are all off the table in my world. Because of that, I would target short term rentals who won't cost a ton.

 

1. Wilson Ramos - C

2. Manny Machado or Jose Iglesias - SS

 

I'd offer Woodruff + an outfielder for Machado and if that's not enough (which it won't be) then I would turn my attention to Iglesias. We should be able to cobble enough production out of 2B between Villar, Miller and Perez.

 

Machado (even as a rental) will cost a ton.

 

As for your untouchables, I can understand the first 3 names but I need you to explain why Luis Ortiz.

 

Ortiz has yet to pitch 100 innings in ANY season so far and if I read his record correctly Ortiz will need to be added to the 40 man this off-season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft in Dec 2018. If he remains healthy, now maybe the time to move him while you can get some value in return.

 

The lack of innings aren't an issue with me because I view him as a future multi-inning reliever. There's no way the Brewers expose him to the Rule 5 draft because they would surely lose him. His FB / SL combo should play up very well out of the pen and could probably help us now if we really needed him. The Brewers lack an elite starting pitcher but the entire pitching staff could be above average if they don't foolishly trade it away. Peralta, Burnes and Ortiz all have the potential to be #3's or better with the floor of an above average reliever. And for the record, I believe Ortiz has the highest upside of the 3 because of his slider.

[MadThinker88]

The lack of innings aren't an issue with me because I view him as a future multi-inning reliever. There's no way the Brewers expose him to the Rule 5 draft because they would surely lose him. His FB / SL combo should play up very well out of the pen and could probably help us now if we really needed him. The Brewers lack an elite starting pitcher but the entire pitching staff could be above average if they don't foolishly trade it away. Peralta, Burnes and Ortiz all have the potential to be #3's or better with the floor of an above average reliever. And for the record, I believe Ortiz has the highest upside of the 3 because of his slider.

 

I will disagree with you over the issue of innings so far. Whatever his future role, the lack of innings is a concern because it has been due to injuries. It is has interrupted/ taken away from key development time so he could either be a mid-rotation starter or in the pen.

 

Now were the injuries a result of his conditioning? Maybe. I will not suggest its was 100% the cause of the various aliments Ortiz has suffered, but I will say I suspect his conditioning played a role in it. And that plays into another concern I have. Here is a player getting top prospect billing and lofty rankings and he could not find the internal motivation to make sure he did all he could to stay healthy and advance to bigger and better things (i.e. call up to the bigs). There are few things the players themselves can control but 2 items they can control are effort and willingness to learn/ change. When a developing player has issues with either of those, I look for ways to get that player away from the group of players that are putting in full effort and willing to learn change. As they say, one bad apple can ruin the bunch. Same idea holds with clubhouses and teams.

 

Now Ortiz no longer has that top prospect ranking as none of BA/ BP/ MLB Pipeline had him among the top 100 prospects at the start of the year (so his value has dropped since coming from Texas). At this point he is healthy and I think it perfect reasonable to question how long that will last since he already missed a month this season (4/23 thru 5/23/18). I believe he holds more value as a trade asset then for future use by the Crew. Better to capitalize on his value now before it drops even more.

[trwi7]

Ortiz was throwing 88-90 in his last start.

[adambr2]

To me I just don't get the concept of untouchable or off the table. You have to remain open to any opportunity or you could let good value pass you by. If we had untouchables, Christian Yelich wouldn't be a Brewer. We had an opportunity to add a really good player and we took it.

 

Hiura is the closest thing I would ever have to an untouchable, it would take something great. If the Marlins offered Realmuto for Hiura straight up, no other prospects involved, I can't promise I'd say no.

 

I can't promise I'd say yes, either. But I'd have a price on anyone.

[MadThinker88]

Ortiz was throwing 88-90 in his last start.

so he might not be fully healthy as he used sit in the mid-90s with his fastball...

[Montezuma]

It is apparent that the Brewers need much more than one pitcher to elevate our game/team. Our approach at the plate seems lost for many and I don't think I have to name them, since their batting averages have been played out not only in the media, but in this forum. Guys are pressing at the plate and the pitchers are missing their spots. What should DS target??? I have a feeling a meeting will be taking place in the Brewers office tomorrow to have a frank and honest assessment of our team.

[adambr2]

It is apparent that the Brewers need much more than one pitcher to elevate our game/team. Our approach at the plate seems lost for many and I don't think I have to name them, since their batting averages have been played out not only in the media, but in this forum. Guys are pressing at the plate and the pitchers are missing their spots. What should DS target??? I have a feeling a meeting will be taking place in the Brewers office tomorrow to have a frank and honest assessment of our team.

 

As long as HighHeat's source is there that's all that matters to me.

[TURBO]

It is apparent that the Brewers need much more than one pitcher to elevate our game/team. Our approach at the plate seems lost for many and I don't think I have to name them, since their batting averages have been played out not only in the media, but in this forum. Guys are pressing at the plate and the pitchers are missing their spots. What should DS target??? I have a feeling a meeting will be taking place in the Brewers office tomorrow to have a frank and honest assessment of our team.

 

As long as HighHeat's source is there that's all that matters to me.

 

 

Uggh. If I never see that fraud's name on this forum again, I'll be a happy man.

[Austin Tatious]

To me I just don't get the concept of untouchable or off the table. You have to remain open to any opportunity or you could let good value pass you by. If we had untouchables, Christian Yelich wouldn't be a Brewer. We had an opportunity to add a really good player and we took it.

 

Hiura is the closest thing I would ever have to an untouchable, it would take something great. If the Marlins offered Realmuto for Hiura straight up, no other prospects involved, I can't promise I'd say no.

 

I can't promise I'd say yes, either. But I'd have a price on anyone.

 

I wouldn't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers. Catcher is a premium position, fine. But, Hiura knows how to hit at a special level. You never know, if he avoids injury he could end up with 2,500 - 3,000 hits some day. I once said that about an injury prone Paul Molitor and my friends laughed at me. I haven't said that for any Brewer since...until now with Hiura.

 

I am not going to move that type of memorable hitter for a JT Realmuto. That would be a bitter disappointment if Stearns and Arnold did that. I really don't think they would.

[paul253]

DS should target a new hitting coach who can actually help these guys get over their struggles. Arcia has been horrid. It’s like he’s closing his eyes and swinging. Santana obviously has been bad. Pina. Braun. Sogard. Even Shaw’s numbers aren’t great. I realize these guys aren’t all exactly perennial all stars but how every one of those guys can be in a season long slump is beyond me.

 

I keep looking at our hitters and saying “look at these guys. They’ll get over it and be fine. We don’t need to add offense”, as well as looking at our pitchers and saying “look at these guys. Surely they’ll fall off at some point. We need to add a pitcher”. Yet here we are at the end of June and our pitchers are still pitching (mostly) well and our hitters are still (mostly) sucking it up.

[adambr2]

To me I just don't get the concept of untouchable or off the table. You have to remain open to any opportunity or you could let good value pass you by. If we had untouchables, Christian Yelich wouldn't be a Brewer. We had an opportunity to add a really good player and we took it.

 

Hiura is the closest thing I would ever have to an untouchable, it would take something great. If the Marlins offered Realmuto for Hiura straight up, no other prospects involved, I can't promise I'd say no.

 

I can't promise I'd say yes, either. But I'd have a price on anyone.

 

I wouldn't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers. Catcher is a premium position, fine. But, Hiura knows how to hit at a special level. You never know, if he avoids injury he could end up with 2,500 - 3,000 hits some day. I once said that about an injury prone Paul Molitor and my friends laughed at me. I haven't said that for any Brewer since...until now with Hiura.

 

I am not going to move that type of memorable hitter for a JT Realmuto. That would be a bitter disappointment if Stearns and Arnold did that. I really don't think they would.

 

The problem with this is that you're comparing a very known quantity in Realmuto, to a very unknown quantity in Hiura. Realmuto is probably the best overall catcher in baseball right now. If not, certainly top 3. It's incredibly early to project Hiura as a 2,500-3,000 hit guy. That's 1,000 more than where Braun is right now.

 

I'm not saying he can't, and his hit ability does seem very real. But he's not the first. 13 years ago Rickie Weeks looked like a potential superstar 2nd baseman. Sometimes it just doesn't work out, and that's the problem with valuing the unknown. Maybe Hiura comes up and hits .250 with a .325 OBP at this level. You just don't ever know.

 

You are right that you can't put Hiura and Realmuto in the same category as ballplayers -- Realmuto is a proven MLB star, Keston is not.

 

None of this is to say that you should value Realmuto more than Hiura. Far from it, I know there's a ton of upside in Keston's bat and that would be tough for me to part with as well.

 

Just saying -- you referred to Hiura as a memorable hitter, but at this point in time, he's a POTENTIAL memorable hitter. The known elite quantity costs more because it is known. Which is why Yelich cost much more than just Brinson despite Brinson's possible ceiling as a 30/30 player.

[adambr2]

DS should target a new hitting coach who can actually help these guys get over their struggles. Arcia has been horrid. It’s like he’s closing his eyes and swinging. Santana obviously has been bad. Pina. Braun. Sogard. Even Shaw’s numbers aren’t great. I realize these guys aren’t all exactly perennial all stars but how every one of those guys can be in a season long slump is beyond me.

 

I keep looking at our hitters and saying “look at these guys. They’ll get over it and be fine. We don’t need to add offense”, as well as looking at our pitchers and saying “look at these guys. Surely they’ll fall off at some point. We need to add a pitcher”. Yet here we are at the end of June and our pitchers are still pitching (mostly) well and our hitters are still (mostly) sucking it up.

 

I have no real idea how to evaluate Darnell Coles but I fail to see how replacing him could be a negative thing in any way.

 

Every young hitter in the lineup with the exception of Aguilar is drastically underperforming expectations.

 

The guy is in his 4th season and hasn't cranked out an offense over 20th in runs scored over a season. I can't see what positive benefit he is bringing to the table.

[YelichPosse]

I'd like DS to target Mark Loretta as hitting coach. That guy was a maximizer of minimal physical gifts, and is a smart fella to boot. I'd love to see a guy like him as the next hitting coach. Somebody who hit for good average and has the smarts like a Jeff Cirillo / Mark Loretta type. And yes, a former Brewer wouldn't hurt. Somebody who has been through the lean years and would like to see these hitters take the next step.

 

Not saying its all Cole's fault. BUT, it wouldn't hurt to make a change.

 

As for targets. Upgrade C.... Realmuto may be the only candidate in a true upgrade area. Ramos from TB? Although Salvador Perez would be a great "get" and i think there is something to be said about actually playing in a pennant race and what he could bring.

 

Upgrade SS... Now this is tough. Go for Escobar from MN? Go for the big fly and tough get like Andrelton Simmons? There aren't many great SS's out there.... lets be honest... Machado's asking price for a few month rental will be way too high... and to be completely honest... Baltimore is too stupid to take a good offer... will keep asking for the moon, and end up getting nothing in return for him walking... lol.

 

Upgrade SP... Stroman will cost a lot, BUT is injury prone. Reminds me of Ben Sheets... great stuff, can't stay on the mound. JA Happ maybe? Maybe a Cole Hammels and hope they eat some of the salary? Go overpay for Archer (who has either underperformed or been hurt also).... eek. I don't like the ideas here either.

 

As the time goes by the more I think we will stay close to pat... and hope that we can squeak in to the postseason.... I HOPE that's not the case... but I see a lot of high price tags for a lot of ???? marks....

[trwi7]

In what way is Stroman injury prone? He was called up in 2014 and they put him in the bullpen to start to keep his innings in check and he finished the season in the rotation. He had a freak ACL tear in spring training in 2015, came back late in the season and proceeding to pitch 200+ innings in 2016 and 2017.

[brewmann04]

I think the brewers FO will look to make a move before July 4

[YelichPosse]

In what way is Stroman injury prone? He was called up in 2014 and they put him in the bullpen to start to keep his innings in check and he finished the season in the rotation. He had a freak ACL tear in spring training in 2015, came back late in the season and proceeding to pitch 200+ innings in 2016 and 2017.

 

 

I would say missing that much time, and then this year, being out with "shoulder fatigue"... that broad term scares me and usually ends up being more by the end of the year. By definition he may not be "prone" but the fatigue word - personally - worries me especially with pitchers, when related to elbows and shoulders. That means something just is not right... and we don't need to drop 3-4 top prospects for a guy who may be a start or two away from a serious injury. Just my personal opinion - is all.

[YelichPosse]

I think the brewers FO will look to make a move before July 4

 

when they made the Sabathia deal wasnt that prior to the ASB and gave us 3-4 extra starts? That's what we really need. And would be the "best" way to do it if you're essentially over paying (just as the market seems this year).

[superfly]

High price tags is such a cliche. Every single year the prices are supposedly high, when in reality that is the going market rate for good talent. I don't think there is a defined timeline for when we're looking to deal, just waiting for the right FAIR opportunity to present itself.