At 81 games - looking at some numbers

[Jimbo]

I went to fangraphs and for each win picked out the player with the highest WPA ("Man of the Match") and each loss found the lowest WPA. Here is the summary:

Shaw 3.5-1

Hadar 3-0

Anderson 3-1

Chacin 3-1

Aguilar 2-0

Jeffress 2-0

Guerra 2-1

Albers 2-1

Braun 2-2

Yelich 2-2

Davies 1.5-2

Arcia 1-0

Miley 1-0

Peralta 1-0

Cain 1-1

Suter 1-1

Santana 0-1

Barnes 0-1

Hoover 0-1

Logan 0-1

Drake 0-2

 

Starters 11.5-5

Offense 11.5-7

Relievers 8-7

 

Also:

3 victories where the Win Prob < 10% at one point.

2 defeats where the Win Prob > 90% at one point.

[Oxy]

That is interesting. To be fair, I'd probably eliminate games where the final deficit was greater than 3 runs (unless the lead changed in the 7th+ inning, I suppose)

[Jimbo]

That is interesting. To be fair, I'd probably eliminate games where the final deficit was greater than 3 runs (unless the lead changed in the 7th+ inning, I suppose)

 

Keep in mind that someone allowed that three-run deficit to occur.

[TJseven7]

3.34 era couldn't have phathomed

4.08 runs... ditto.

 

If the era holds and the offense gets back to last years totals this teams very scary.

[sveumrules]

Cool idea, Jimbo. In the 14 games since your original post we have...

 

Braun 2-0 | Ji-man 1-0 | Yelich 1-0 | Shaw 1-0 | Guerra 1-0 | Jhoulys 1-0 | Domingo 1-1 | Davies 0-2 | Albies 0-2 | Aguilar 0-1

 

Which brings the season totals to...

 

Shaw 4.5-1

Chacin 4-1

Braun 4-2

Hader 3-0

Guerra 3-1

Anderson 3-1

Yelich 3-2

Jeffress 2-0

Aguilar 2-1

Albers 2-3

Davies. 1.5-4

Arcia 1-0

Miley 1-0

Peralta 1-0

Ji-man. 1-0

Cain 1-1

Suter 1-1

Santana. 1-2

Barnes 0-1

Hoover 0-1

Logan 0-1

Drake 0-2

 

Starters 13.5-7

Offense 17.5-9

Relievers 8-9

[TJseven7]

3.52 era +.18 (3.8 expected target)

4.39 runs +.31 (4.9 expected target)

 

+.87... closer. (1.1 expected target)

[Jimbo]

At the half-way point now.

 

Chacin 5.0-2.0

Shaw 4.5-1.0

Aguilar 4.0-1.0

Anderson 4.0-2.0

Braun 4.0-3.0

Peralta 3.0-0.0

Hadar 3.0-1.0

Guerra 3.0-1.0

Yelich 3.0-2.0

Jeffress 2.0-0.5

Suter 2.0-1.0

Albers 2.0-4.0

Davies 1.5-4.0

Arcia 1.0-0.0

Miley 1.0-0.0

Choi 1.0-0.0

Thames 1.0-0.0

Broxton 1.0-0.0

Cain 1.0-1.0

Santana 1.0-1.5

Jennings 0.0-1.0

Barnes 0.0-1.0

Hoover 0.0-1.0

Pina 0.0-1.0

Logan 0.0-2.0

Drake 0.0-2.0

 

Offense 21.5-10.5

Starters 18.5-9.0

Relievers 8.0-13.5

 

3 victories where the Win Prob < 10% at one point.

2 defeats where the Win Prob > 90% at one point.

 

Just for fun, I did this for the entire 1982 season to use as a benchmark. PM me for details.