Will the brewers win 90 games

[brewerswinNLcentral]

i think they will.

they are 10 games over already even with multiple injuries

make that SIXTEEN games over against the whole schedule other than the cubs

we have very good hitting everywhere but catcher and SS.

The bullpen is lights out and the starters are pretty good

i fully expect us to trade for a starting pitcher and/or catcher by the trading deadline

i think i predicted 88 wins so i think 90 is doable

[xisxisxis]

You want to know if we think the Brewers will win EXACTLY 90 games?

[Eye Black]

You want to know if we think the Brewers will win EXACTLY 90 games?

I’ll take the field.

[KCBrewerfan34]

They are going to win 110

[xisxisxis]

I'd take the field too!

 

The brewers are 29-19 and on pace for 97.875 total wins.

 

Their Pythagorean W/L is 26-22 which puts us on a pace for 87.75 total wins.

 

It's early so 27 wins now would project to 91.125 total wins and 28 wins now would project to 94.5 total wins. So a lot of variance in projecting out from here simply based on the current standings.

 

I'd expect some regression from our bullpen, some regression due to run differential and some regression because not-Braun has been better than Braun, but CC will likely go all-in on Braun...

 

My best guess given what we have done, how the pitching and offense looks, no more injuries and a return to near 2017 Jimmy Nelson is that the Brewers are in the 91-92 win range.

 

Fangraphs is projecting a final record of 82-80 driven by a huge regression in the pitching staff (3.69 RA/g now to 4.57 RA/g for the remainder) and a modest improvement in offense (4.04 RS/G to 4.25). Given Davies has been down for 2 weeks, Nelson hasn't returned, and Suter/Woodruff have been only marginally effective, they must think the Brewers bullpen has been completely lucky and they will fall off a cliff. I'm the last poster to be accused of Brewer goggles, but that is just a completely idiotic conclusion/projection for the brewers pitching staff. They are projecting the offense to be better than the defense in 2018 and the pitching to be worse in 2018 than 2017. I don't see it...

[MrTPlush]

Honestly the bullpen has notable regression and is a massive reason we are 10 over. With regression we probably float around .500. The offense and starters will have to pick up the slack to push us over 90 wins. I think they could do it...think. I also think notable July additions are likely.

 

I’d still predict 86 wins. The pitching staff is worrisome.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

the brewers could win 80 games 85 games or 90 some games

most of the games will be close games that come down to a certain hit here or a strike there

we are a winning team that

wins tight games and has a great bullpen

the only thing i am pretty sure about is we wont be a [crappy] team that wins 65-70 games

i am just curious what people think based on the track record, which is ten games over .500

if we duplicate that over the next 114 games

[TURBO]

Why are people so gung ho on a new catcher? I've seen it pop up in several threads.

 

I'm fine with Pina, I think he does great job with our pitching staff. It goes un noticed in the stats, but I truly feel he is part of the reason our pitching has been so good.

 

I would LOVE a new back-up catcher, but I don't think we need a starting backstop as badly as a lot of people do.

[Tbadder]

Each of these scenarios seem reasonable. I can see each working and I think Stearns is smart enough to know the same. So I agree, the bullpen regresses, the offense improves somewhat, which mitigates some of the loss. But I’ve got a feeling Knebel will reassert himself fully and so some of that bullpen regression will be lessened. Plus, as far as the bullpen goes there’s still arms like Houser in the minors who could come up and make a difference, and so the regression could be lessened further.

 

Nelson is the problem. I just can’t see him coming back and being the same guy. God, I hope I’m wrong but I’m skeptical, but say he does well then it’s Katy bar the door as far as I’m concerned. Hitting wise: I’m begging CC to just give Villar the at bats. So 90? Not sure, but my prediction has picked up to 87 from 85.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

pina hits like a pineapple this year but lord can

that guy eight ball it to second base or what

another great win..that chump ump almost cost us the game

the last one was literally a perfect pitch and he still called it a ball

rock went nuts and so did CC and knebel

[Jenkins5]

Still to young in season today but winning as many games as possible early is important to give you wiggle room to struggle later. Baseball is all about streaks. Your team gets hot & cold. Right now we are hot. Without Boone Logan’s two blenders we would be 11-1 in last 12. Comes down to how long we can stay hot before we hit that next funk & how quick we can snap out of it. Trick to baseball, never get swept & avoid 1-3 four game series. Those are the absolute killers. You are dropping 2-4 games in standings in 2-4 days.

 

Right now, we need to get through home series & May hot. No easy task. Still got Dbacks tomorrow. Mets for 4 who have Thor, DeGrom, and a bullpen who are throwing really good right now. Then Cardinals are the Cards who Brewers never have easy time handling.

 

Best case to finish month

Take 1 more from Dbacks, 3 from Mets, 2 from Cards

6-2 for 36-21 on the season

 

Most likely

5-3 or 4-4 for 35-22 or 34-23

 

Possible

3-5 for 33-24

 

Hope not

2-6 for 32-25

 

Come June, I’m much more optimistic of a 90 win season 14-15 games above .500 entering June as to 7 to 9 games over. We will get cold eventually. Build up that cushion as much as possible first.

[Jenkins5]

National League is tough this year! Only 3 bad teams really in Marlins, Reds, Padres. Dodgers are not as bad as they have played. They could rip off a huge hot streak at any point when they get more healthy. Right now Central teams are tough with Cards, Cubs, Pirates combined 16 games over .500. Cubs & Cardinals both have had plenty of issues of their own. Not going to be easy.

 

American League though....outside of the 4 teams in the West & the Yankees & Red Sox...what a joke two months that has been.... lot of subpar baseball. Put Brewers in AL Central right now, I say they win 95+

[owbc]

First team in the NL to 30 wins. I’ll jump on the hype train—this team rides the bullpen to 90+ wins and potentially a deep playoff run. Lots in common with the recent Royals teams that defied projections. Outperforming the Pythagorean is expected with a good bullpen and there is no reason to expect regression if the bullpen can keep it up and some of the other key pieces return.

 

At the point the low bar for the season would be a 1 game exit in the Wild Card. Anything less than playoffs would be a major disappointment.

[MadScientist]

September 14th

 

Oh wait, I thought this thread was *when* will the Brewers win 90 games.

[StearnsFTW]

Why are people so gung ho on a new catcher? I've seen it pop up in several threads.

 

I'm fine with Pina, I think he does great job with our pitching staff. It goes un noticed in the stats, but I truly feel he is part of the reason our pitching has been so good.

 

I would LOVE a new back-up catcher, but I don't think we need a starting backstop as badly as a lot of people do.

 

Couldn't agree more. Pina is a huge part of this team's success. Same as last year. There is no reason that this pitching staff should be as effective as it is based solely on talent. Pina and Johnson deserve a lot of credit.

[YelichPosse]

Why are people so gung ho on a new catcher? I've seen it pop up in several threads.

 

I'm fine with Pina, I think he does great job with our pitching staff. It goes un noticed in the stats, but I truly feel he is part of the reason our pitching has been so good.

 

I would LOVE a new back-up catcher, but I don't think we need a starting backstop as badly as a lot of people do.

 

Couldn't agree more. Pina is a huge part of this team's success. Same as last year. There is no reason that this pitching staff should be as effective as it is based solely on talent. Pina and Johnson deserve a lot of credit.

 

Agreed , I have no problem with Pina. I do, however have a problem with Bandy as he's OFFENSIVE with the bat, and OFFENSIVE behind the plate. haha. I think we have AAA options far better but that's my opinion. I mean Arizona has 3 catchers I'd rather have than Bandy... lol.

[YelichPosse]

Brewers will win 89 games, and host the wild card game vs. St. Louis and FINALLY get their number and send them home for the winter.

[YelichPosse]

National League is tough this year! Only 3 bad teams really in Marlins, Reds, Padres. Dodgers are not as bad as they have played. They could rip off a huge hot streak at any point when they get more healthy. Right now Central teams are tough with Cards, Cubs, Pirates combined 16 games over .500. Cubs & Cardinals both have had plenty of issues of their own. Not going to be easy.

 

American League though....outside of the 4 teams in the West & the Yankees & Red Sox...what a joke two months that has been.... lot of subpar baseball. Put Brewers in AL Central right now, I say they win 95+

 

 

Holy COW! Put the Brewers in the AL Central, they clinch July 1st. lol. But seriously they could win 100 in that division!

[StearnsFTW]

Why are people so gung ho on a new catcher? I've seen it pop up in several threads.

 

I'm fine with Pina, I think he does great job with our pitching staff. It goes un noticed in the stats, but I truly feel he is part of the reason our pitching has been so good.

 

I would LOVE a new back-up catcher, but I don't think we need a starting backstop as badly as a lot of people do.

 

Couldn't agree more. Pina is a huge part of this team's success. Same as last year. There is no reason that this pitching staff should be as effective as it is based solely on talent. Pina and Johnson deserve a lot of credit.

 

Agreed , I have no problem with Pina. I do, however have a problem with Bandy as he's OFFENSIVE with the bat, and OFFENSIVE behind the plate. haha. I think we have AAA options far better but that's my opinion. I mean Arizona has 3 catchers I'd rather have than Bandy... lol.

 

Yes. Bandy is terrible.

 

And in my original post I was speaking about the talent of the starting pitching, not the bullpen.

[FVBrewerFan]

They will win 91.5 games, but lose the division to the surprising Reds. But they beat the Cardinals in a one game WC playoff at Miller Park by turning the scoreboard ribbons up to 11. What happens after that is too soon to tell.

[3and2Fastball]

Why are people so gung ho on a new catcher? I've seen it pop up in several threads.

 

I'm fine with Pina, I think he does great job with our pitching staff. It goes un noticed in the stats, but I truly feel he is part of the reason our pitching has been so good.

 

I would LOVE a new back-up catcher, but I don't think we need a starting backstop as badly as a lot of people do.

 

 

I think a lot of Brewers fans are used to the old way of doing things, where you cram as much offense as you can into every position possible, regardless of how awful the player is on defense.

 

Pina & Arcia have been phenomenal this season. Defense wins championships.

[pacopete4]

For me, I've just wanted to see Pina in the backup role if we could acquire a guy like Realmuto. You can't tell me that this team wouldn't be better off with Realmuto catching 100-110 games while Pina catches 50-65. We all know what it would take to get Realmuto so this probably isn't super realistic anyways. Pina is a nice catcher and I'm really hoping he can continue his success at the plate because it makes him that much more valuable.

[adambr2]

For me, I've just wanted to see Pina in the backup role if we could acquire a guy like Realmuto. You can't tell me that this team wouldn't be better off with Realmuto catching 100-110 games while Pina catches 50-65. We all know what it would take to get Realmuto so this probably isn't super realistic anyways. Pina is a nice catcher and I'm really hoping he can continue his success at the plate because it makes him that much more valuable.

 

Exactly, it has a lot more to do with how good Realmuto is, who is also lauded for his work with a pitching staff and defensive talents. It's not a knock on Pina per se, just an opportunity for a massive upgrade at the position to have Realmuto as your starter and Pina as your backup.

 

It's not like JT is some defensive hack, he can do both. Pina is a nice defender and everything and so is Arcia and it's nice to have that. But they're also big reasons that the offense was such a disaster for the first 6 weeks of this season. Long-term it would be nice to get a big offensive upgrade, its tough having 6-9 as a black hole in your lineup. We are in a great spot right now team-wise but its scary to think how bad our offense would be if Stearns has stood pat in the OF in the offseason and not gone out and gotten Cain and Yelich.

[StearnsFTW]

Pina's offense is not good. I feared last year was an anomaly, and it appears as though it was. If he can just be *decent*. .300 OBP and .400 SLG and he's fine. At .250/.300/.400 he's a major plus. Has some work to get there though.

 

Realmuto is not realistic for me. He's a very good player, but I personally wouldn't want to give up what it would take to get him. Which I think is similar to what it took to get Yelich.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not ready to call us likely 90 game winners yet. This run of good play needs to extend a bit longer...as we likely will have a rough stretch at some point.