WAR projections

[adambr2]

Just for fun -- as we all know WAR isn't perfect but it's just fun to see where guys would end up at the end of the season if you extrapolate out their current performances.

 

Cain - 5.1 fWAR, 7.8 bWAR, 6.5 avg

Yelich - 2.7 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, 3 avg

Aguilar - 3.7 fWAR, 3 bWAR, 3.4 avg

Shaw - 4.7 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR, 5.4 avg

Santana - 0.3 fWAR, 2 bWAR, 1.1 avg

Villar- 0.7 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR, 1.2 avg

Arcia - (-0.3) fWAR, 2 bWAR, 0.8 avg

Pina - 0 fWAR, (-0.3 bWAR), (-0.2) avg

 

For good measure, a couple of relievers:

 

Hader - 5.1 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR, 4.6 avg

Jeffress - 3 fWAR, 5.1 bWAR, 4.1 avg

[danzig6767]

The utter lack of any plate discipline by Arcia is maddening and he'll never have the level of a successful career he wants until this changes.

 

It's baffling to me because Arcia has to have been told about this issue numerous times and he has to watch video of himself constantly swinging at crap off the plate, leading to one out after another, yet he keeps doing it. Why, given how much money is on the line over his career?

[Eye Black]

Thanks for doing this, it is interesting to see where things stand at this point in the season.

 

Yelich - 2.7 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, 3 avg

Regarding Yelich, assuming he doesn’t have another DL stint this season I think these projections would be slightly higher, correct? He has played in 36 of the 48 games so far this season. If we assume he plays in the majority of the remaining games (lets say 110 of the 114 left) I believe his projected numbers would be 3.2 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR, 3.7 avg.

[JohnBriggs12]

The utter lack of any plate discipline by Arcia is maddening and he'll never have the level of a successful career he wants until this changes.

 

It's baffling to me because Arcia has to have been told about this issue numerous times and he has to watch video of himself constantly swinging at crap off the plate, leading to one out after another, yet he keeps doing it. Why, given how much money is on the line over his career?

 

This was the year I expected Arcia to move from exciting defensive player with a developing bat into a borderline All Star. If there's been a disappointment on this roster so far, he's it. He's actually regressed. He still has time and he's young, but I'd be sniffing around about what it would take to get Machado even as a rental. The stakes are high in 2018.

[FVBrewerFan]

The utter lack of any plate discipline by Arcia is maddening and he'll never have the level of a successful career he wants until this changes.

 

It's baffling to me because Arcia has to have been told about this issue numerous times and he has to watch video of himself constantly swinging at crap off the plate, leading to one out after another, yet he keeps doing it. Why, given how much money is on the line over his career?

 

If only it was as easy as telling a player not to swing at balls. Corey Hart would have been a multiple All-Star and Weeks may be in the HOF. It's like telling a pitcher he's at his best when he doesn't give up any walks or hits.

 

As for Arcia, they addressed one problem, getting rid of most of the pre-pitch movement. It's also obvious they're drilling opposite field into him. He just hits way too many ground balls, and I'm sure they've been working on that too.

 

Hitting consistently at the MLB level is tough, we all know that, but we have to remind ourselves it's VERY difficult. You see the start guys like Goldschmidt have, as one quick example. And he's an All-Star. Arcia does have a quick bat, so there's reason for hope. And, obviously, still very young. All you can do is keep working with him the cage and hope for the best. Maybe he gets hot later in the year, and in the playoffs.

[KeithStone53151]

Remember when all the Cubs fans were talking about all the WAR their SP were going to have?

 

Darvish -0.3

Quintana -0.1

Lester 0.5

Hendricks 0.7

Chatwood 0.8

 

I'm still waiting for their rotation to have the inevitable injury, they can bring that Tseng guy with the 7 ERA in AAA back up to start...

[KeithStone53151]

The utter lack of any plate discipline by Arcia is maddening and he'll never have the level of a successful career he wants until this changes.

 

It's baffling to me because Arcia has to have been told about this issue numerous times and he has to watch video of himself constantly swinging at crap off the plate, leading to one out after another, yet he keeps doing it. Why, given how much money is on the line over his career?

 

If only it was as easy as telling a player not to swing at balls. Corey Hart would have been a multiple All-Star and Weeks may be in the HOF. It's like telling a pitcher he's at his best when he doesn't give up any walks or hits.

 

As for Arcia, they addressed one problem, getting rid of most of the pre-pitch movement. It's also obvious they're drilling opposite field into him. He just hits way too many ground balls, and I'm sure they've been working on that too.

 

Hitting consistently at the MLB level is tough, we all know that, but we have to remind ourselves it's VERY difficult. You see the start guys like Goldschmidt have, as one quick example. And he's an All-Star. Arcia does have a quick bat, so there's reason for hope. And, obviously, still very young. All you can do is keep working with him the cage and hope for the best. Maybe he gets hot later in the year, and in the playoffs.

 

Let's all remember that Arcia is still 23. For every Lindor that comes up and sets mlb on fire, there's a guy that takes some time to find his groove. I hate to use a filthy cub as an example, but Rizzo was a very average 1b his first couple years before improving to a consistent 900 ops guy. With Arcia we've seen the glimpses, and I'm convinced that if his plate approach was similar to Villar's...he'd improve his OPS by 100 points. Easier said than done, but I think it's easier to improve a plate approach than to improve pure hitting ability.

[coolhandluke121]

Gomez and Segura looked every bit as bad as Arcia for a while there, but they had the hand-eye coordination, reflexes, bat speed, and decent gap power to turn it around. I'm giving it another 1.5 years before I think about moving on. If they can find a good stopgap in that time, fine, but I still think he's going to be a good player.

 

I remember when Lucroy was arguably the weak link in the 2011 lineup, too. It's growing pains IMO.

[KeithStone53151]

Gomez and Segura looked every bit as bad as Arcia for a while there, but they had the hand-eye coordination, reflexes, bat speed, and decent gap power to turn it around. I'm giving it another 1.5 years before I think about moving on. If they can find a good stopgap in that time, fine, but I still think he's going to be a good player.

 

I remember when Lucroy was arguably the weak link in the 2011 lineup, too. It's growing pains IMO.

 

Thanks, those are far better comps than Rizzo...especially segura.

[Eye Black]

Regarding Arcia, just a friendly reminder that things were looking fairly bleak for him through the first 50 games last season (albeit not quite as poorly as this year has been), and then in the month of June he proceeded to slash .326 BA/.370 OBP/.478 SLG. Not saying history will repeat itself, but I think it is worth remaining patient with him. I've resigned myself to the likelihood he will never be an upper half of the order hitter, but I think he will be able to at least get back closer to respectability.

[adambr2]

Thanks for doing this, it is interesting to see where things stand at this point in the season.

 

Yelich - 2.7 fWAR, 3.4 bWAR, 3 avg

Regarding Yelich, assuming he doesn’t have another DL stint this season I think these projections would be slightly higher, correct? He has played in 36 of the 48 games so far this season. If we assume he plays in the majority of the remaining games (lets say 110 of the 114 left) I believe his projected numbers would be 3.2 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR, 3.7 avg.

 

Yeah, that's a fair point on Yelich. Had he not missed some time he'd probably be more in that 3.5 pace which is pretty much exactly what we expected, perhaps slightly on the low side.

 

Cain and Shaw were pretty shocking to me to see. I realize Cain has been good, but his bWAR pace is worthy of MVP candidacy.

 

I also thought on the surface that there's been some regression with Shaw which doesn't appear to be the case at all.

[danzig6767]

The utter lack of any plate discipline by Arcia is maddening and he'll never have the level of a successful career he wants until this changes.

 

It's baffling to me because Arcia has to have been told about this issue numerous times and he has to watch video of himself constantly swinging at crap off the plate, leading to one out after another, yet he keeps doing it. Why, given how much money is on the line over his career?

 

If only it was as easy as telling a player not to swing at balls. Corey Hart would have been a multiple All-Star and Weeks may be in the HOF. It's like telling a pitcher he's at his best when he doesn't give up any walks or hits.

 

As for Arcia, they addressed one problem, getting rid of most of the pre-pitch movement. It's also obvious they're drilling opposite field into him. He just hits way too many ground balls, and I'm sure they've been working on that too.

 

Hitting consistently at the MLB level is tough, we all know that, but we have to remind ourselves it's VERY difficult. You see the start guys like Goldschmidt have, as one quick example. And he's an All-Star. Arcia does have a quick bat, so there's reason for hope. And, obviously, still very young. All you can do is keep working with him the cage and hope for the best. Maybe he gets hot later in the year, and in the playoffs.

 

Rickie Weeks actually walked a lot and Hart had somewhat decent plate discipline. One reason Arcia hits so many ground balls is the pitches he swings at out of the strike zone.

 

Perez is the same way. I think he has talent as a hitter and combined with his skill on the infield, he could be an everyday starter, but he just flat out refuses to make pitchers throw him more strikes. I just don't get why he won't change this glaring weakness when it impacts his career and earning power so much?

[istanbultaye]

Certainly, plate discipline, pitch recognition, eye for the strike zone are all things that can and should be developed by every player, but it is just a fact of life that some people are going to be better at it than others no matter how much effort they put into it. You can have all the natural physical talent in the world in terms of strength/quickness/bat speed, etc, but that is still limited by your talent in visual processing or whatever you want to call the stuff that has to happen in your brain to recognize the pitch etc. Arcia is young enough yet that he still has a good chance to improve significantly in that regards, but Perez is probably what he is in terms of plate discipline even if he were to put more effort (out of our view what he's doing in that regards).

[Eye Black]

The Brewers have played exactly 1/3 of their schedule and if we multiplied everyone’s current total by three...

 

Lorenzo Cain is on pace for 6.9 fWAR and 8.4 bWAR

 

Travis Shaw is on pace for 6.0 fWAR and 7.5 bWAR

 

Jesús Aguilar is on pace for 3.9 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR

 

Christian Yelich is on pace for 3.6 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR (doesn’t even account for the fact he missed 12 games)

 

Josh Hader is on pace for 5.1 fWAR and 4.5 bWAR

 

Jeremy Jeffress is on pace for 3.0 fWAR and 5.7 bWAR

 

There is certainly still a lot of season to go, but those are some impressive WAR totals.

[YelichPosse]

The Brewers have played exactly 1/3 of their schedule and if we multiplied everyone’s current total by three...

 

Lorenzo Cain is on pace for 6.9 fWAR and 8.4 bWAR

 

Travis Shaw is on pace for 6.0 fWAR and 7.5 bWAR

 

Jesús Aguilar is on pace for 3.9 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR

 

Christian Yelich is on pace for 3.6 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR (doesn’t even account for the fact he missed 12 games)

 

Josh Hader is on pace for 5.1 fWAR and 4.5 bWAR

 

Jeremy Jeffress is on pace for 3.0 fWAR and 5.7 bWAR

 

There is certainly still a lot of season to go, but those are some impressive WAR totals.

 

That's playoff team WAR combos there....

[shanedog19]

I realize the competition at 1B is stiff in the NL, but at what point does Aguilar warrant all-star consideration? I mean, 9 HR and 30 RBIs in 30 games is just incredible. At his present trajectory, he could be amongst the league leaders in both categories by July. Not to mention a .320 BA and .400 OBP to boot.

[Eye Black]

That's playoff team WAR combos there....

On a snowy day this winter when I was a little board I looked up the bWAR totals from players on every World Series team over the past decade. The bWAR formulas actually changed slightly this spring, so I had to go back and adjust some of the numbers. Below is every player on a World Series team since 2008 that had a bWAR of 3.0 or greater.

 

Note: For players traded mid-season the bWAR total is only what the player accumulated with the World Series team. A good example would be Yoenis Cespedes who had 6.3 bWAR in 2015, but only 2.3 of that total with the Mets. I listed the World Series Champion first for each year below.

 

2008

Phillies Position Players: Chase Utley (9.0); Jimmy Rollins (5.5); Shane Victorino (4.4); Jason Werth (3.7)

Phillies Pitchers: Cole Hamels (4.3)

 

Rays Position Players: Carlos Pena (5.1); Evan Longoria (4.8); Melvin (B.J.) Upton (3.3); Akinori Iwamura (3.1)

Rays Pitchers: James Shields (3.9); Scott Kazmir (3.8); Matt Garza (3.4)

 

2009

Yankees Position Players: Derek Jeter (6.6); Mark Texeira (5.3); Robinson Cano (4.5); Johnny Damon (4.2); Alex Rodriguez (4.2)

Yankees Pitchers: CC Sabathia (6.2); A.J. Burnett (4.5); Mariano Rivera (3.6); Andy Pettitte (3.4)

 

Phillies Position Players: Chase Utley (8.2); Jayson Werth (4.5); Ryan Howard (3.8); Shane Victorino (3.7)

Phillies Pitchers: J.A. Happ (4.2)

 

2010

Giants Position Players: Aubrey Huff (5.7); Andres Torres (5.3); Buster Posey (3.9)

Giants Pitchers: Matt Cain (4.1); Tim Lincecum (3.3); Jonathan Sanchez (3.3)

 

Rangers Position Players: Josh Hamilton (8.7); Nelson Cruz (4.1); Ian Kinsler (4.0)

Rangers Pitchers: C.J. Wilson (5.0); Colby Lewis (3.7)

 

2011

Cardinals Position Players: Albert Pujols (5.3); Matt Holliday (3.8); Lance Berkman (3.8)

Cardinals Pitchers: Chris Carpenter (3.5)

 

Rangers Position Players: Ian Kinsler (7.0); Adrian Beltre (5.6); Mike Napoli (5.5); Elvis Andrus (4.2); Josh Hamilton (3.8)

Rangers Pitchers: CJ Wilson (4.9); Matt Harrison (4.0); Alexi Ogando (3.6)

 

2012

Giants Position Players: Buster Posey (7.6); Melky Cabrera (4.8); Angel Pagan (4.2)

Giants Pitchers: Matt Cain (3.8)

 

Tigers Position Players: Miguel Cabrera (7.1); Austin Jackson (5.5); Prince Fielder (4.7)

Tigers Pitchers: Justin Verlander (8.1); Max Scherzer (4.4); Doug Fister (3.4)

 

2013

Red Sox Position Players: Dustin Pedroia (6.3); Shane Victorino (6.1); Jacoby Ellsbury (5.7); David Ortiz (4.4); Mike Napoli (4.0); Stephen Drew (3.1)

Red Sox Pitchers: Clay Buchholz (4.4); Koji Uehara (3.6); Jon Lester (3.0); John Lackey (3.0)

 

Cardinals Position Players: Matt Carpenter (6.5); Yadier Molina (6.1)

Cardinals Pitchers: Adam Wainwright (6.2); Shelby Miller (3.5)

 

2014

Giants Position Players: Buster Posey (5.4); Hunter Pence (3.8); Pablo Sandoval (3.4)

Giants Pitchers: Madison Bumgarner (3.9)

 

Royals Position Players: Alex Gordon (6.5); Lorenzo Cain (4.9); Salvador Perez (3.7)

Royals Pitchers: Wade Davis (3.7); Danny Duffy (3.6); James Shields (3.5); Yordano Ventura (3.2)

 

2015

Royals Position Players: Lorenzo Cain (7.2); Mike Moustakas (4.4); Eric Hosmer (3.6)

Royals Pitchers: Wade Davis (3.5)

 

Mets Position Players: Curtis Granderson (5.1)

Mets Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (5.2); Matt Harvey (4.8)

 

2016

Cubs Position Players: Kris Bryant (7.4); Anthony Rizzo (5.5); Addison Russell (4.1); Dexter Fowler (4.1); Ben Zobrist (3.7); Javier Baez (3.2)

Cubs Pitchers: Jon Lester (5.6); Kyle Hendricks (5.4); Jake Arrieta (3.7)

 

Indians Position Players: Francisco Lindor (5.9); Jason Kipnis (4.2); Jose Ramirez (4.1); Carlos Santana (3.2)

Indians Pitchers: Corey Klueber (5.8); Carlos Carrasco (3.1)

 

2017

Astros Position Players: Jose Altuve (8.3); Carlos Correa (6.3); George Springer (5.0); Josh Reddick (4.3); Martin Gonzalez (4.3); Alex Bergman (4.1)

Astros Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel (3.9); Brad Peacock (3.0)

 

Dodgers Position Players: Justin Turner (5.8); Corey Seager (5.6); Chris Taylor (4.8); Cody Berlinger (4.2); Yasiel Puig (3.7)

Dodgers Pitchers: Clayton Kershaw (4.9); Alex Wood (3.4); Kenley Jansen (3.0)

 

 

For comparison, the Brewers currently have eight players on pace for ≥ 3.0 bWAR. The position players are Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Jesús Aguilar, and Domingo Santana. The pitchers are Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader, and Junior Guerra.

[YelichPosse]

my goodness that is some awesome research. It looks like this current lineup would stack up nicely with most of those numbers.

[stalton]

Not the point of your wonderful research but I couldn't help but notice that the 2011 Cards had the lowest bWAR leader for WS winners. That team lucked into the playoffs (for the most part) and was insanely hot in the playoffs.

 

I'd love to see what other nuggets can be extrapolated.

[gregmag]

Really interesting data. Thank you!

[Eye Black]

One troubling feature among the position players is there is a significant divide in production between the top and bottom of the lineup. I don’t think success is sustainable with a stars and scrubs pool of position players.

 

Using Baseball Reference WAR four position players have combined for 9.7 bWAR this season: Cain (3.8 bWAR), Shaw (2.4 bWAR), Yelich (2.3 bWAR), Aguilar (1.2 bWAR).

 

The rest of the position players currently on the active roster have combined for 2.6 bWAR.

 

If you use Fangraphs instead the WAR total among those top four is 9.1 fWAR: Cain (3.4 fWAR), Shaw (2.1 fWAR), Yelich (2.0 fWAR), Aguilar (1.6 fWAR).

 

The rest of the position players on the current 25-man roster have combined for just 0.7 fWAR.

 

With Thames back in the fold he will continue to add value as well. The primary culprits that have failed to produce much above replacement level value (and in some cases below) thus far are Santana (0.7 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR), Braun (0.2 bWAR / 0.2 fWAR), Pérez (0.3 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR), Piña (-0.3 bWAR / -0.2 fWAR), Arcia (0.1 bWAR, -0.4 fWAR), Sogard (-0.6 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR)

 

I think this current roster has enough high end talent to be successful, but not enough quality position players around them. I don’t believe you can expect four players to account for more than 80% of the value going forward and maintain success. I hope they can add a couple of 1.0-2.0 WAR type position players at the deadline to plug the most glaring holes.

[JosephC]

Braun (0.2 bWAR / 0.2 fWAR), Pérez (0.3 bWAR, 0.1 fWAR)

 

How the mighty have fallen.

[istanbultaye]

considering how bad he was the first month and a half to two months, good job by Braun getting back (even slightly) to positive.