Green Bay 90-man Roster Review

[CheezWizHed]

Rather than my usual roster prediction thread, I decided to write-up a blurb on each individual player on the roster and their probability of making the roster. Then highlighted by "way to early" predictions. Sorry if that got really long.

 

QB (2-3) – Predicting 2

- Aaron Rodgers (110% chance): Annually the easiest roster prediction

- DeShone Kizer (75%): They didn’t trade for him to compete with Hundley. He is the new backup.

- Brett Hundley (25%) - could be traded, but after three years of work with MM, his accuracy beyond 10 yards is still garbage.

- Tim Boyle (5%) - 90% chance of the Practice squad however.

 

RB/FB (4-6) Predicting 5 unless they keep Kerridge instead of a third TE.

- Aaron Jones (100%): A real game changer if he stays healthy. Loved how he setup his runs last year.

- Jamaal Williams (100%): Between the tackles bruiser. Nice lighting and thunder complement to Jones.

- Ty Montgomery (100%): Still an enigma. A great season at RB two years ago, but not a “typical” RB. Could he be the third WR this year? Or backup Cobb in the slot?

- Aaron Ripkowski (90%) – Played much less than the years prior, but I can’t see them switching to a no-FB offense yet. Plus, without a blocking TE, he should be very confident.

- Davante Mays (50%): That big and that fast… he gets another year.

- Joe Kerridge (10%): Only real chance of sticking is an injury to Rip or as the third TE.

- Joel Bouagnon (1%): Similar size/speed as Mays, he might be able to compete.

 

WRs (5-7): Predicting 6

- Davante Adams (100%) – The default #1 WR right now. And the only one locked for the outside.

- Randall Cobb (100%) – Could possibly be his last year with the Pack?

- J’Mon Moore (95%) – Will we be saying “J’Mon man!” or “Moore! Give me Moore”? Either way, too much talent to not make the roster.

- Michael Clark (65%): A personal favorite of mine. Big and fast, but really raw last year. I’d guess that it really depends on if he develops at route running. Could be similar to Jimmy Graham as a WR-like TE.

- Equanimeous St. Brown (65%): The dark horse at WR. He has the skills but does he have the dedication to put in the work?

- Geronimo Allison (60%): His roster spot is not in his hands. Decent route runner, but I don’t see any more upside left. If he is passed for the #3 WR by J’Mon, I’d guess he gets cut to allow a higher upside guy to take the 4-6th spots.

- DeAngelo Yancey (40%) – Lost 15lbs and going into his second year. Will he make the big 2nd year jump or get stuck? With all the younger guys and being a “TT draft guy”, he will need a splash this year.

- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (40%): The new Trevor Davis with size. Speed to burn and size. But needs development on route running.

- Trevor Davis (25%) – Speed, but just hasn’t developed as a WR. With all the competition, I just don’t see him making it.

- Jake Kumerow (5%) – Local boy from Division III. Practice squad is really his only chance

- Colby Pearson (0%) – UDFA from last year that didn’t make the PS until McCaffrey was stolen off late in the season.

 

TEs (2-4): Three is normal, but not much here to chose from. Predicting 2 unless they trade/claim another.

- Jimmy Graham (100%): The Packers need to use him more as a Jordy replacement than Seattle did as a traditional TE.

- Lance Kendricks (100%) – Hopefully he has a resurgent second year with the Packers. Mainly because there is no one else…

- Emanuel Byrd, Kevin Rader, Ryan Smith, Robert Tonyan (10%): If they keep one from this group, your guess is as good as mine here… Might keep Kerridge (FB) as the third TE, but more likely the best blocker wins.

 

OL (9-10): Normally, we have kept 8-9 OL, but with uncertainty, they might hold onto 10. LT, LG, and C starters are locked down. RT might be open depending on Bulaga’s health and contract status. While RG is wide open for competition. Those positions and their backups leave the last 3-4 spots wide, wide open. Much will be decided on who steps up in their rookie or second years. I’m predicting 9.

- David Bakhtiari (100%): I admit it. I was wrong about him in the past. I didn’t think he could stick at LT.

- Lane Taylor (100%): Solid starter at LG keeps the left side consistent.

- Corey Linsley (100%): The only sure NFL talent at C on the roster.

- Justin McCray (100%): 75% chance of being the RG starter, but his flexibility to play RG and RT ensures a spot for him as a backup at least.

- Bryan Bulaga (75%): Could start the season on the PUP or be able to start. But in his absence, if someone looks good at RT, he could be cut. Refused a pay cut earlier this year and his cap number could seal his fate.

- Jason Spriggs (90%): Hasn’t lived up to his billing yet at T, but still growing. But if he has another TC last last year and someone else really steps up, he could be gone.

- Kyle Murphy (90%): Reminded me of Tausch last year. Not impressive physically, but a good player. A chance to start at RG and RT this year.

- Cole Madison (50%): Nice size/speed candidate for RG/RT. Has a chance to start at RG even. He looks like Josh Sitton, hopefully he plays like him.

- Lucas Patrick (50%): Filled in at G last year. And played well, but uninspiring. Has a chance to make a big 2nd year jump, but lots of physical talents going to push him this year.

- Kofi Amichia (40%): Highly athletic guard drafted last year but looked completely out of place last year with a lack of strength. Boom or bust candidate this year and my dark horse candidate at RG.

- Adam Pankey (25%): Played pretty well in TC last year. Could be a dark horse RT candidate.

- Austin Davis (25%): UDFA center from Duke. Has an outside chance to make the roster as a backup C but will probably need to show something at G too.

- Jacob Alsadek (10%): Massive T/G who was signed as a priority UDFA.

- Alex Light (10%): Another priority UDFA to try out at T/G

- Dillon Day (1%): Small center that won’t contribute at C, so versatility is against him.

- Kyle Meadows (0%): Big and slow tackle lottery pick.

 

DL (5-6): Pretty clear distinction between the top 5 and the rest. But I think they will keep 6.

- Mike Daniels (100%): Near All-Star should benefit from having team mates that can rotate.

- Kenny Clark (100%): Not putting up big numbers yet, but I think he is going to blowup this year. Still only 22 and going into his 3rd year.

- Muhammad Wilkerson (100%): I’m hopeful in a rejuvenation but at worst he should be an upgrade on the DL.

- Dean Lowry (90%): Not physically impressive but a smart player that maximized his effort. Good rotation player.

- Montravius Adams (90%): Showed very little in TC last year before getting hurt but has lots of physical gifts.

- James Looney (70%): Built as a 4-3 DE and doesn’t seem like a good match for a 3-4 defense, but maybe he can grow? But they drafted him so they must like him.

- Tyler Lancaster (50%): Big kid that might find a niche at NT on a team filled with DEs.

- Conor Sheehy (1%): Local favorite but will need a year at least.

- Filipo Mokofisi (1%): Non-Local favorite due to a fun name. But will also probably need a year.

 

LB (8-9) Another case where there a pretty clear 8 players and a gap to the rest. I’m guessing they keep a 9th as a development OLB.

- Clay Matthews (100%): It will be interesting to see what impact Pettine’s defense makes on his game. Clay certainly showed he has the speed last year. I can’t wait to see what some defensive creativity does for him.

- Nick Perry (100%): Is one healthy season too much to ask? Might be a cut risk due to health if we really had anyone pushing him.

- Vince Biegel (100%): Broken foot blew up his TC chances last year and I’m interested in seeing what he can bring in year 2.

- Blake Martinez (100%): Took a big step up last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wears the comm helmet as the leader of the defense this year.

- Oren Burks (100%): Third round pick is a lock to make the roster. Will he be raw or will he contribute as a dime backer?

- Jake Ryan (90%): Still a good 1st and 2nd down LBer with run support. Solid but nothing splashy. Not many people pushing him for that role, so little chance that he doesn’t make it.

- Reggie Gilbert (80%): A lot of positive comments in the offseason about him. It’s taken a couple years but we might see some impact this year.

- Kyler Fackrell (65%): I thought he played better last year than advertised but doesn’t seem to be improving much either way. Solid backup and ST player. At risk to lose out to someone with some upside but that isn’t a given seeing what is behind him.

- Chris Odom (50%): He stuck around all year last year so they seem to like him. But didn’t really do anything last year and will need to show something to make it this year.

- Kendall Donnerson (10%): Drafted. Massive athlete but not a player yet. Certainly, will be on the PS if not the 53-man roster.

- Parris Bennett (1%): Not an athlete, but a ball-player. ILB with a nose for the ball.

- Naashon Hughes (1%): Edge rushers always get a little extra attention.

- CJ Johnson (0%): Development ILB candidate. Played one year in college.

- Greer Martini (1%): Decent size and ok speed. Has a chance.

- Marcus Porter (1%) – Division II ILB with good measurables, but probably will need a year to transition.

- Ahmad Thomas (1%): Has some skills but limited athleticism.

 

DB (9-10). Nine players are pretty clear and the 10th really up in the air.

- HHCD (100%): Best combination of experience and youth in the entire backfield. Play receded last year but I expect a huge rebound under Pettite.

- Kevin King (100%): I thought he would be rawer last year than he actually was but ran right with the leagues best WRs. A year of strength conditioning could make him very interesting.

- Jaire Alexander (100%): First round picks make the roster. Expected to be the nickel or dime CB.

- Josh Jackson (100%): Second round picks make the roster too. I don’t expect much the first year. He played a lot of zone at Iowa and might take some time to adjust.

- Josh Jones (100%): Targeted to be starting safety this year. Look for big improvements on last year.

- Kentrell Brice (100%): Competing with Jones at safety this year, he complements JJ’s in the box strengths with better coverage.

- Tramon Williams (100%): Senior statesmen still has something left in the tank. Tramon’s role is simple: #1: mentor the young pups. #2: Start until they are ready.

- Davon House (90%): Played well when healthy last year but wasn’t healthy as much as needed.

- Lenzy Pipkins (75%) UDFA from last year that came on strong and looked like he belongs. But needs to improve and beat out tougher competition this year.

- Quinten Rollins (40%): Never quite fit in but showed promise. Injury last year might have slowed down his marginal speed. Might transition to safety.

- Marwin Evans (40%): Great ST player that isn’t making much of a defensive impact. More competition this year makes it tough for him to make it.

- Donatello Brown (10%): Had some moments in TC. Has a chance if he makes a big second year jump. Being 28 (same age as House!) already plays heavily against him.

- Josh Hawkins (10%): Again, he has his moments but his upside is probably limited.

- Raven Greene (10%): UDFA with some ball-hawking tendencies. Probably a PS target however.

- Herb Waters (5%): Raw player making the transition from WR for the last two years. Maybe it clicks this year.

- Demitri Goodson (0%): Never before has a player stuck around and contributed so little. This is the year for good byes.

- Jermaine Whitehead (0%): Been around a couple years with minimal impact.

 

ST: 3.

- Mason Crosby (100%): Kickoff skills are marginal, but not much else to complain about.

- Hunter Bradley (99%): You don’t draft a LS to cut him. He hopefully will be worth it…

- JK Scott (100%): I’m not a fan of drafting a punter especially when the one you had was pretty good. But it seemed like everyone in the team knew something we didn’t. Vogel didn’t even bother to fight for the position.

- Zach Triner (1%): Bradley will need to really flop for any chance here.

[LouisEly]

Should Lucas Patrick be bolded? You have 9-10 OL but only eight are bolded and only 52 bolded overall, so I'm guessing Patrick is the last.

 

I'd bold Evans instead of Rollins, as that would make four safeties. I don't think they go seven corners and three safeties. I also think that it's an even battle right now between Rollins, House, and Brown for the sixth corner spot. If even, for cap purposes they might go with the smaller cap number in Brown but in the end health will determine which of those three get the last spot. Whitehead is the fifth safety; he was activated off of the PS when Brice went on IR. If there's an injury at safety there is a good chance he makes the roster; he started 33 games at Auburn, which is not easy to do.

 

Because of the question marks with the health of Bulaga and Spriggs, I'd give Madison more like a 90% chance to make the roster.

[CheezWizHed]

Lucas Patrick: Correct. If I only made one mistake in that whole thing, I did well!

 

Evans vs Rollins: I'm guessing that Rollins is put at safety this year. He was never the fastest guy and injuries will slow him a bit more. Evans, while extremely fast, can't quite make any non-ST impact on the team.

 

RT: Whomever can handle RT, even in a back-up mode, would greatly increase their chances of sticking. Even better if they can stop-gap LT. I'm just not sure Madison can do either one. Murphy has shown it. Even Spriggs has shown he is ok (just not to high 2nd round expectations). Pankey is another to watch this year.

- I'm probably under on Madison as a 5th round pick, but they have been cut in the past. Plus there is a lot of competition at that spot.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Too many 100%. I don't think it's impossible that someone big like Cobb or Matthews is cut in camp. Not likely, but I don't think either of those guys for example are 100%. Lance Kendricks definitely isn't anymore.

 

Nobody likes drafting a punter but I don't think people understand just how rare of a talent JK Scott is. Some punters struggle to adapt to the NFL speed but if he does this could be an all-time great type who plays for 20 years. The guy is a total freak of nature and his accuracy and power are unprecedented at the best football program in the NCAA. Vogel was competent, but I think they saw a chance to get a really special punter.

[CheezWizHed]

If you think Cobb, Matthews or Kendricks have a chance at being cut anymore, I don't think you are really looking at what we have behind them. Earlier in the offseason, I could've seen it, but not anymore. Kendricks might be at 90% now, but even signing Lewis means that we only have 3 NFL caliber TEs and a bunch of UDFAs. Sure one might come out of nowhere and Lance flops. But the chances are low.

 

I hope Scott really is "rare". Scouting reports gushed about ability to drop it inside the 20, but didn't really complement his strength. And you can go look at the history of drafting punters... Yes, its the main way to get a pro-bowl caliber guy, but there are more busts than booms when drafting one.