Ranking the 40 man roster by trade value

[adambr2]

* Please don't take this as an endorsement or suggestion that we actually should or should not trade anyone. This is merely an exercise in valuation.

 

** Going for surplus value here, so contract matters. Equally productive starting pitchers, for instance, would be valued much differently for a 25 year old with 5 years control remaining than a 30 year old with 2 years and $30M remaining on his deal.

 

*** I just used the 40 man roster. Had to draw the line somewhere.

 

 

1: Hader

 

Is anyone else even really close? Hader checks about every box an organization could want -- cheap, controlled hardthrowing, elite reliever, with the possible bonus for a team to convert him to a starter. It's hard to peg down exactly what the Brewers would be willing to part with him for. I'd speculate that it would take a team with a top 5 prospect in all of baseball plus other pieces, or at least 3 or 4 top 50 pieces.

 

2: Yelich

 

You saw what we just gave up for him, so it's reasonable to imagine the return would be among the same lines right now, which was one of the bonus features of trading for Yelich -- he's basically a refundable asset the next 2 years or so if things go awry and shift back to rebuilding mode.

 

3-7: Knebel, Shaw, Arcia, Anderson, Davies

 

Here's where things start to get a lot more subjective and I'm sure there will be disagreement. All these players have significant attractions. All are well-controlled and range from very young to prime years. An ask centered around a top 50 or so prospect would not be unreasonable.

 

8-13: Santana, Woodruff, Jeffress, Peralta, Williams, Phillips

 

I want to throw Santana in the above group but it's become clear that corner OFers have been devalued. Woodruff still has value but probably a notch lower than his low top 100 prospect status based on MLB performance. Jeffress is just so hard to peg. He's dominant, he's cheap, he's controlled, he SHOULD be very valuable, but you can't help but think teams would be scared off by history at this point. You're probably looking at 2 or so prospects from the 8-15 level of an organization's system here, depending on the strength of the system.

 

14-23: Thames, Aguilar, Albers, Guerra, Suter, Nottingham, Dubon, Barnes, Diplan, Pina

 

Here's a whole slew of guys that I think probably put you in line for an organizational top 12 or a couple lottery tickets. Or if you're using them to buy, they might get you a decent rental to fill a hole of need. Obviously you get to this part of the field it's almost totally subjective -- you've got guys that are still prospects themselves, proven guys, just about everything.

 

24: Houser

 

I could not for the life of me decide whether Adrian belonged on the tier above or the tier below. So I put him on his own.

 

25-30: Broxton, Villar, Jennings, Perez, Lopez, Logan

 

These guys are worth very little. For the right fit on the right team, maybe you get a decent lottery ticket back that turns out to be the next Freddy Peralta. These guys don't have cost prohibitive tags which prevents them from being ranked even lower.

 

31-37: Asher, Saladino, Sogard, Wilkerson, Bandy, Choi, Franklin

 

These guys are worth nothing. If traded, they're the classic PTBNL or cash.

 

38-39: Cain, Chacin

 

Here's where "surplus value" makes things confusing, because these are good players, and Cain is a really good one. Yet, they both just signed FA contracts and are both performing at expected levels for that contract, making them really no more positive or negative than the day they signed. As I think we learned with the Marlins and Stanton, the larger the contract for a productive player, the tougher it is to determine value. Any return can depend on what we're willing to eat, what the market is at the time, etc. etc. I don't necessarily "rank" these guys as 38-39. It's just very difficult to determine their trade value.

 

40: Braun

 

Unfortunately he does belong in a category his own because he's the only player on the 40 with a clear cut negative surplus value. Still, that can be spun into a positive as some teams have a slew of such contracts on the roster -- we have one, which is indicative that the FO has been generally smart in the contracts they've handed out.

[Eye Black]

I really like the “trade value” exercise as a way of understanding the nuisances involved within each player’s value equation.

 

I do think Christian Yelich is close enough to Josh Hader for a debate. The past two seasons (2016 and 2017) Yelich has been listed overall at #23 and #27 respectively, in trade value across all of baseball as part of Fangraphs trade value series.

 

Obviously both are incredibly valuable because beyond the potential to be an elite talent, each is a controllable asset for many years. Yelich costs quite a bit more which may ultimately give Hader the edge. I do believe the overall risk is lower with Yelich (as almost always the case when comparing the longer term outlook between a position player and a pitcher). It is always possible Yelich’s career trajectory goes the way of Nick Markakis, but barring significant injury that appears to be his floor, in my opinion.

[Outlander]

I have to disagree on Chacin. I understand your thought process but if it is the trade deadline and he is 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA the Brewers can get something for him considering he is only owed about $7 million next year. Just don't believe that guys like Logan, Broxton, Franklin, Bandy, etc, would have more value than him. Would probably put him in the 14-23 category. Cain is a tough one because it is four more years and everybody would love to have him this year but things can change fast the next four years and his salary gets higher every year.

[pacopete4]

I feel like this was made just so you could put Braun last.

[adambr2]

I agree that Chacin has value. I just have a tough time grading guys who literally just signed FA contracts and so basically just determined their own break even point for surplus value.

 

And Eye Black when I really think about it Yelich is probably worth as much as Hader. I don't think I can argue with that. Just seemed right to me to put Hader on top since I would guess that he should/would fetch a higher total value than what we gave up for Yelich.

 

In retrospect, what we gave up for Yelich almost seems like a light return to me.

[adambr2]

I feel like this was made just so you could put Braun last.

 

It was a hard earned glory typing all that just to plug him in at 40.

 

But seriously, even if he was as good as Cain he would probably be 40, just the way it goes with the contract size. If he has an amazing career renaissance to AS form and gets dealt I'll gladly point it out.

 

Cain will probably replace Braun here in 3 years. I love Cain, and even like his contract but the writing is on the wall with his age and deal. The plus side is they'll never have to worry about his 10/5 kicking in.

[pacopete4]

I feel like this was made just so you could put Braun last.

 

It was a hard earned glory typing all that just to plug him in at 40.

 

But seriously, even if he was as good as Cain he would probably be 40, just the way it goes with the contract size. If he has an amazing career renaissance to AS form and gets dealt I'll gladly point it out.

 

Cain will probably replace Braun here in 3 years. I love Cain, and even like his contract but the writing is on the wall with his age and deal. The plus side is they'll never have to worry about his 10/5 kicking in.

 

I agree with your placement and reasoning. Just wanted to give you a little ribbing.

[LouisEly]

Interesting exercise. Generally agree, except for Chacin and Wilkerson. Wilkerson belongs on the line with Houser. Starting pitchers under control at pre-arb salaries have value. It's hard to comp as he has not been given much of an opportunity (except for a really good start against the Cardinals at the end of last season).

[StearnsFTW]

Yelich is a lot more valuable than Hader in my opinion. The control is only 1 year different. If Hader was a starter, I'd agree but he's not.

[wallus]

I feel like this was made just so you could put Braun last.

 

So who is the Vice President of the Braun fan club?

[pacopete4]

I feel like this was made just so you could put Braun last.

 

So who is the Vice President of the Braun fan club?

 

His mom.

[wallus]

Yelich is a lot more valuable than Hader in my opinion. The control is only 1 year different. If Hader was a starter, I'd agree but he's not.

 

Yelich costs a lot more and outfielders aren't bringing in a lot via trade. I think it could be argued that Hader is much more valuable; especially with an extra year of control.

[adambr2]

Yelich is a lot more valuable than Hader in my opinion. The control is only 1 year different. If Hader was a starter, I'd agree but he's not.

 

Top end, best of the best relievers fetch crazy good returns and Hader definitely falls into that category. The Cubs gave up the best prospect in baseball to rent Aroldis Chapman for 2 months. Hader is that tier of reliever only young and cheap and here for 6 years.

 

In a hypothetical world where we put Hader on the market today I would guess half the teams in baseball would want in on the bidding and he would fetch at least what we ended up giving up for Yelich IMO.

[3and2Fastball]

I think Cain belongs in the Top 10, probably Top 5, maybe 3rd overall. His contract isn't outrageous considering his production. He is a proven vet putting up excellent numbers.

[JosephC]

Good idea for a thread, I might try to come up with some values if I have the time this weekend.

 

Obviously just a complete guess, but I'd think most MLB GMs see Hader as a reliever. If so, Yelich likely has greater surplus value.

[StearnsFTW]

Yelich is a lot more valuable than Hader in my opinion. The control is only 1 year different. If Hader was a starter, I'd agree but he's not.

 

Top end, best of the best relievers fetch crazy good returns and Hader definitely falls into that category. The Cubs gave up the best prospect in baseball to rent Aroldis Chapman for 2 months. Hader is that tier of reliever only young and cheap and here for 6 years.

 

In a hypothetical world where we put Hader on the market today I would guess half the teams in baseball would want in on the bidding and he would fetch at least what we ended up giving up for Yelich IMO.

 

Yeah I thought about that after I said it. I think you guys are right. Look what the Yankees got for 2 1/2 years of Andrew Miller.

 

I think it's crazy, but it doesn't really matter what I think.

[adambr2]

It does sound crazy by traditional valuations, but relievers in baseball are kind of in the midst of a revolution.

 

Look at it in reverse. If the Braves came and offered Robert Acuna straight up for Hader, would you do it? I don't know that I would. I might need more.

 

I would do it straight up for Ohtani probably.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

It does sound crazy by traditional valuations, but relievers in baseball are kind of in the midst of a revolution.

 

Look at it in reverse. If the Braves came and offered Robert Acuna straight up for Hader, would you do it? I don't know that I would. I might need more.

 

I would do it straight up for Ohtani probably.

I’d absolutely accept Acuna for Hader, I doubt the Braves would. Acuna is a potential 5-6+ WAR franchise cornerstone, while Hader has been just absolutely great there’s a limited ceiling and impact in his role and also the whole fragility of pitching vs position players. I think it’s also relatively easier to find good to great relief pitchers than it is to find ~5 WAR position players.