Milwaukee Bucks 2018 - 2019

[tmwiese55]

First, it's out of shape relative for an NBA player. of course playing as much ball as he does he's generally in shape, we're talking relative to other NBA players.

 

I'd grant that I think Mid could be in better shape. I chalked a lot of this slacking/floating type stuff the last years up to our idiot coach playing him 38 mins a game. This year, they're smartly managing minutes and he's still floating or being lackadaisical too often. That said, it's almost impossible for us to say for sure if it's a conditioning thing or just attitude/effort or even just diminishing athleticism(for an already unathletic guy). As FV said, it COULD be true but us idiots here just can't KNOW for sure.

 

So, as a generally unathletic guy that might be slowing a bit you'd hope he'd put in the extra effort to get in even better shape than he is to compensate or just to make himself the best player he can be. Essentially CHL is just saying he coouuuld be better (and was before), it's really no different than saying Giannis would be better if he improved his FTs to 80% or if Bled trimmed one bonehead turnover per game. And that if it is due to lack of training/conditioning then it could be a bad sign once he puts his last 100 mil contract in the bank. Still, you have to just trust the judgment of management/Bud on this as people like us have no way of knowing.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I truly can’t see how you think he is out of shape when he’s been playing basketball for multiple hours everyday for at least 5 months straight to this point. I can’t believe that you think people that carry a little extra weight are just fat and out of shape. A guy that is 6’10 and weighs 235 and a guy that’s 6’10 and weighs 250 can be equally as effective basketball players and have the same stamina.

 

Simple. His effort and stamina used to be a lot better and he used to be a lot leaner with better definition and tone. He should still be in his prime. The fact that other people don't see it means nothing to me. It takes a trained eye to see an extra 5% body fat on a guy wearing a baggy uniform, so I already know that most people can't see it. I also know many examples of guys who nobody said was fat, but who then lost 10-15 pounds of baby fat and said it made a big difference. Heck, even Kobe did it. Did anyone know he could afford to lose some fat when he was in his 20's? Very few people recognized it, but compare pictures of his body and muscle fiber to prime Jordan/Pippen and you'll see the difference. And if you think an extra 10-15 pounds of dead weight doesn't make a difference, try playing with a 15 pound vest and then see how different it feels when you get to take it off.

 

Playing basketball so much doesn't mean you're in great shape, because you're obviously being compared directly with other people who play basketball just as much. It's all relative. No, I don't think he's fat and out of shape compared to you and me. I shouldn't have to clarify that. But his conditioning and tone leave a lot to be desired.

 

Here's an example of why it's so hard to see the extra fat Khris is carrying:

 

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[tmwiese55]

This was a big story a few years ago

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/lebron-carmelo-lose-weight-2014-8

[coolhandluke121]

This was a big story a few years ago

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/lebron-carmelo-lose-weight-2014-8

 

Yep. I remember constantly trying to tell people how so many players were carrying more fat than guys like Jordan and Pippen, but people just kept saying "they look fine and they're playing great." The point, however, is not that they weren't playing reasonably well but that they could play better - and most of those guys, even before they shed the extra pounds, were much more tone and energetic than Khris is now.

 

There's a certain range of effectiveness you're going to have given your talent, age, health, and experience. However, being at all out of shape and/or carrying extra weight is going to put you on the low end of that range every single time, whereas great conditioning will put you on the high end. And the difference is monumental in your overall effect on the team, despite the fact that superficial "box score" numbers don't change much.

[tmwiese55]

I mentioned this earlier too if people didn't know the story: https://www.stack.com/a/victor-oladipo-got-in-insane-shape-this-summer-now-hes-playing-like-a-superstar

[Pugger]

I dont think you can blame one guy when you lose to the Suns.

 

 

Well, if Middleton just has a bad night, not a absolutely horrible night, they win easily. You can always look at other plays, but I WOULD put the losses the last two games on Middleton.

 

Sorry but I can't agree with that. Mirotic was horrible last night too. And Giannis had 6 turnovers and he fouled out. The Bucks should easily be able to overcome a horrible shooting night by one guy but no one else picked up the slack. At the end of the day, they gave up 40+ points to Utah in the 4th and 38 points to the friggin Suns in the 4th. That doesn't have much to do with bad shooting on the other end.

 

Dear me, I'm glad I didn't see this one last night!

[coolhandluke121]

This was a big story a few years ago

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/lebron-carmelo-lose-weight-2014-8

 

Great share. That shows exactly what I'm talking about. Of course his experience helped too, but losing that much fat made a monumental difference in his performance... even though he didn't look fat or out of shape (if you didn't know what to look for) at all before.

 

I think this being a baseball forum has a lot to do with people not seeing the difference. NBA basketball is probably in the .005% of professions where that kind of body fat makes a huge difference, and MLB is obviously not. I also don't know how many people here have been in great enough shape to have experienced the difference, but that may be part of the reason it's so hard to make the point.

[FVBrewerFan]

This was a big story a few years ago

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/lebron-carmelo-lose-weight-2014-8

 

Great share. That shows exactly what I'm talking about. Of course his experience helped too, but losing that much fat made a monumental difference in his performance... even though he didn't look fat or out of shape (if you didn't know what to look for) at all before.

 

I think this being a baseball forum has a lot to do with people not seeing the difference. NBA basketball is probably in the .005% of professions where that kind of body fat makes a huge difference, and MLB is obviously not. I also don't know how many people here have been in great enough shape to have experienced the difference, but that may be part of the reason it's so hard to make the point.

 

No, it's not hard for you to make your point- you've made it. Problem is, you keep providing information to prove points everyone already agrees with.

 

1) We all know extra body fat can be hidden differently on different people. Sometimes it's very hard to see it.

 

2) We all acknowledge that it could have an effect on performance.

 

3) We all agree this COULD be true of Khris.

 

What you're missing is...

 

3) There's no proof Middleton has more body fat, and if he does if it has any significant effect on his play.

[coolhandluke121]

 

No, it's not hard for you to make your point- you've made it. Problem is, you keep providing information to prove points everyone already agrees with.

 

1) We all know extra body fat can be hidden differently on different people. Sometimes it's very hard to see it.

 

2) We all acknowledge that it could have an effect on performance.

 

3) We all agree this COULD be true of Khris.

 

What you're missing is...

 

3) There's no proof Middleton has more body fat, and if he does if it has any significant effect on his play.

 

This isn't what's happening at all. It may be what you're saying, but there's plenty of people acting like I'm completely pulling this out of my butt. The real issue is people acting like the absence of "proof" is evidence against the theory, even though the theory is overwhelmingly supported by the best available evidence. Furthermore, tmwiese linked several instances where similar theories were proved after the fact because the player literally admitted it, even though there was no "proof" at the time that it was happening.

 

If looking like he's gained weight and playing like he's out of shape isn't evidence that he's gained weight and is out of shape (by NBA swingman standards), then what is? I have to go measure his body fat% and give him conditioning tests? I mean, of course I haven't done that... but neither have the people saying this is not an issue. The bottom line is making the best possible conclusion given the evidence we have. It's one thing to say the overwhelming evidence is not quite "proof"; it's quite another to say the evidence is not evidence.

[stoutdude04]

I for one, am amazed that you can tell his body fat %(when it is so close) simply by watching him on tv/seeing him run/looking at stock photos online.

[coolhandluke121]

I for one, am amazed that you can tell his body fat %(when it is so close) simply by watching him on tv/seeing him run/looking at stock photos online.

 

I know you're being somewhat sarcastic but my eyesight and my ability to discern small differences is actually amazing by any measure. This is just an objective fact based on vision tests. I also have very intimate knowledge of the subtle differences when you go from, say, 5% body fat to 15% because I've been all over that range most of my adult life - even though most people couldn't tell the difference and I was pretty fit regardless.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

[RollieTime]

 

This is truly perfect!

[tmwiese55]

Yea I don't think the 'trust me I'm really good at this' argument is gonna go over to well on an internet message board, haha. this is just an unproveable thing from our perspective and all there is is best guess eye test on it. But yea, it's not crazy to look at Mid next to Bledsoe and Giannis and think that maybe he could tighten up the bod a bit and it could help his quickness. It's also to acknowledge we just don't know. Regardless, I think the point has been made and can moved onto something else.

 

they just had two bad losses in a row blowing big late leads, which hasn't been a problem this year. which also opened back up home court to Tor. Can't let it be a trend, come out strong vs indy this week and lock up HC

[coolhandluke121]

Yea I don't think the 'trust me I'm really good at this' argument is gonna go over to well on an internet message board, haha.

 

Except isn't that exactly what people are doing when they say they can't see it and therefore imply it's not there? Eyesight is not some subjective thing like intelligence. It's easily tested and objectively verifiable. I can't get over people trying to tell me that I don't see what I see just because they can't see it.

[tmwiese55]

Yea I don't think the 'trust me I'm really good at this' argument is gonna go over to well on an internet message board, haha.

 

Except isn't that exactly what people are doing when they say they can't see it and therefore imply it's not there? Eyesight is not some subjective thing like intelligence. It's easily tested and objectively verifiable. I can't get over people trying to tell me that I don't see what I see just because they can't see it.

 

No, they're saying they don't know one way or another as they can't tell and just eyeballing off TV is so hard. Whereas you're saying absolutely that you're right. But there is no way to prove to people online that you have some elite skill in this so it's pointless to try. Which is why it was mocked right away. Essentially, it should just be that in your opinion and best guess looking at pics/tv he could tone his body by 10-20 lbs and it would likely help him a bit as he ages. It's just impossible to prove it and for you to say proof is at that 'I'm awesome at it, trust me' just isn't gonna go very far. Maybe you pointing this out will make a few people look a bit closer though and come to the same conclusion, who knows. That's really all one can do.

[GAME05]

Kind of a moot point. He's not going to be on the team next year, anyway.

[FVBrewerFan]

Kind of a moot point. He's not going to be on the team next year, anyway.

 

Wow, what's going on around here, that's not necessarily true either. (Plus, it's not a moot point because he's still around THIS year.)

 

As for you, X-ray vision CHL...

 

I think we forget how different Middleton's role is this year compared to the past. He had the ball in his hand a ton before this year, and had no trouble getting off enough shots per game. Now this year the offense is very different, requires constant ball movement, and more scoring options on the floor.

 

If he has a few extra lbs, yea, that would keep him from performing at his best. But I don't think that's the main reason he's struggling. I think you even pointed out how he's used to the ISO game. That may cause him to sulk a bit on the defensive end of the floor, not a lack of energy. Doesn't that make just as much sense? Add to the fact he's seeing Bledsoe get an extension, other players around the league. Here I am, an All-Star, getting no love.

 

He's been very professional about everything, but we don't know how much any of that is weighing (forgive the pun) on his mind. But again, that makes as much sense as lack of energy. Plus, in my opinion at least, he has a great playoff series last year on both ends. And has had stretches last year and this year similar to that. So he can activate some sort of anti-fat energy for a week or two at a time? No, I think it's a case of what 90% of NBA players do- they play defense when they want to.

 

Look at Bledsoe. Was he fat before he came to Milwaukee? Probably not. He came into a good situation, and that has motivated him to play all-out most of the time. I just think the answer in most cases can be found in the head, not the extra junk in the trunk. Also understanding they aren't mutually exclusive. Ideally, any player should be in maximum physical shape.

[tmwiese55]

I don't believe Middleton can even sign an extension right now by rules, could be wrong though on that. Chances are he turned one down in the offseason though, so he really shouldn't be pouty about that unless of course it was insultingly low.

[Mr Southpaw]

Kind of a moot point. He's not going to be on the team next year, anyway.

 

If I had to bet today, I would agree with you. I think his ego is too big and the Bucks payroll is too small.

[Outlander]

Middleton may stay or he may go but the reality is the Bucks are trying to win a championship this year. Kind of hard to believe considering how bad they have been over the years but Middleton will be a huge part in determining if they get there.

[homer]

Yeah all the back and forth about Middleton is really about whether or not to sign him to an extension.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Wow, what's going on around here, that's not necessarily true either. (Plus, it's not a moot point because he's still around THIS year.)

 

As for you, X-ray vision CHL...

 

I think we forget how different Middleton's role is this year compared to the past. He had the ball in his hand a ton before this year, and had no trouble getting off enough shots per game. Now this year the offense is very different, requires constant ball movement, and more scoring options on the floor.

 

If he has a few extra lbs, yea, that would keep him from performing at his best. But I don't think that's the main reason he's struggling. I think you even pointed out how he's used to the ISO game. That may cause him to sulk a bit on the defensive end of the floor, not a lack of energy. Doesn't that make just as much sense? Add to the fact he's seeing Bledsoe get an extension, other players around the league. Here I am, an All-Star, getting no love.

 

He's been very professional about everything, but we don't know how much any of that is weighing (forgive the pun) on his mind. But again, that makes as much sense as lack of energy. Plus, in my opinion at least, he has a great playoff series last year on both ends. And has had stretches last year and this year similar to that. So he can activate some sort of anti-fat energy for a week or two at a time? No, I think it's a case of what 90% of NBA players do- they play defense when they want to.

 

Look at Bledsoe. Was he fat before he came to Milwaukee? Probably not. He came into a good situation, and that has motivated him to play all-out most of the time. I just think the answer in most cases can be found in the head, not the extra junk in the trunk. Also understanding they aren't mutually exclusive. Ideally, any player should be in maximum physical shape.

 

He has been doing this ever since he got his current 5 year, $70m (opt-out after 4) contract though.

 

Showed up lazy and out of shape in 2015. Got benched by Kidd about a month in for chucking and lack of defensive effort, an annual fall rite of passage at this point. That's when he earned the sarcastic "Khobe" moniker for his delusions about his isoball game. Fortunately he was young enough to get away with bad training habits, and he was back to his old self for the second half of the season. Played great, was all over the court on both sides of the ball, looked like a true all-around stud in the making.

 

Tore his hamstring that summer, which admittedly was a major blow. Came back before the season was over and I had to do a double-take because he had gotten kind of fat. I figured it was just because of the injury though, and assumed he would lose the extra weight with a full summer of being healthy and getting back to 100%. He played well on offense with his "old man game", but was slow and lethargic. Obviously it was excusable under the circumstances, but it's no excuse anymore. It's worth noting that the team got better when Jabari tore his ACL and Khris replaced him basically the same day. It's not that Khris is bad; it's that he could be so much better.

 

Next year, same thing. It was really disappointing because they had a chance to be pretty good and because he had plenty of time to get in better shape. He was looking better by the end of the season, and was moving around really well against Boston. His success in that series wasn't just about hitting shots, as an outside shooter will always have hot and cold streaks, but more about looking like his old self again. He had trouble staying in front of Brown and Tatum, but lots of swingmen do. It should also be noted that he was allowed to play as much isoball as he wanted, so that's not an excuse for his lethargy in the Kidd era.

 

I figured that was a good sign and he would come back in great shape for a contract year, but he still has these issues. You and others may be forgetting how good his defense was before this became an issue. It didn't show up in the box score and not as many people were paying attention to the Bucks in 2014-15. His defense was terrific. Now he looks like he's wearing concrete shoes. As for saying it may just be a mental thing, I would find that a more likely explanation if he didn't regularly look exhausted on the court. It's not exactly that he's not trying per se, it's that his legs seem to get heavy and he gets winded too easily to sustain the effort. Minutes are no longer an excuse, because Bud does a great job managing minutes. Having too much responsibility on offense is not an excuse either, because they have plenty of other options. He should be playing with much more energy and hustling more.

 

The lack of an extension is also not the issue. The CBA rules constrain an extension to a certain raise over his current salary, which is very low by modern standards.That's because they would technically be extending him with more than a year left on his current contract. The reason he's not getting one is because the maximum raise the Bucks could possibly give him is probably on the extreme low end of what he would get on the open market. He has to opt out and officially enter free agency to get anything close to market value. You can pretty much guarantee the Bucks would do back flips if he said he wants to sign an extension for the maximum amount they're allowed to give him right now, which I believe starts at a little more than $16m per season (it's been a while since I read the CBA though).

 

You and tmwiese have at least acknowledged that he probably could be in a little better shape. What I take exception to is people implying that I'm just making it up and pretending to see body fat and signs of poor conditioning that aren't there, or calling it confirmation bias. Why would I do that? What bias would I have in the first place? Most importantly, what's a more obvious, simpler, more likely explanation for why his defense has gone deteriorated so much since getting his current contract and why he has no muscle tone and looks so slow? He was never Westbrook as an athlete, but he was a lot better than this.

 

All that said, I would still keep him. I think he would be a hall-of-fame talent if he would get in great shape and embrace a role shooting off the ball more. I could see him being almost as good as Reggie Miller. Actually, screw that... I could see him being just as good. More importantly, they either spend the money on him, or they spend it on nobody. You can go over the cap to keep him, but you can't go over the cap to sign someone else to more than a minimum contract.

[coolhandluke121]

On a related note, we might need Khris to be more like the player he was against Boston last year just to get past them in the second round. Getting Hayward back to speed has been a case of taking 2 steps backward in attempt to take 3 steps forward later for them. They could be scary in the playoffs.

[tmwiese55]

I think all points have been made on KM body and training.

 

For the comments on that it won't matter, he's gone. I'd still bet very comfortably that he's back. First, this whole fear of him getting a "max" offer I think is way overblown. you don't think other teams are seeing the same issues we're seeing this year with him kind of just being ok, nothing special? I can't see a team lining up to immediately hand him 4/135ish. Maybe a team after striking out on others would get desperate and give him something close, but if you're him do you want to wait around for two weeks on the 10ish FAs above him in pecking order and risk all that? Plus chances are you'll be going to a non contending team even if it does work. Is that all worth it just for an extra couple mil, when it might never even come. Next thing you know you're taking a KCP 1 year deal. Bledsoe just set a bit of a precedent as well, if the Bucks offer him 100 mil at 12:01 how does he turn it down? Heck, I think he'd take a bit less, put in the bank and go live it up for a month while knowing he has more money than he'll ever spend and is on a contender next to Giannis for the next several years.

 

Someone commented on ego, there is literally nothing to support that notion. All the articles/comments he's pumped out the last few weeks around the ASB hype have said the exact opposite, and some behind the scenes stuff not seen before point to the opposite as well.

 

Then combine it with what I and CHL have pointed out on the Cap stuff, if they let him go they can't replace him.