Milwaukee Bucks 2018 - 2019

[coolhandluke121]

I misspoke. It would be closer to $50m in cap space if you renounce everyone. In practice, the $40m is accurate because of cap holds on Brogdon and a pick and vacant roster spots. I forgot that I had already subtracted those, changing $50m to $40m as opposed to changing $40m to $30m as I implied. I apologize.

 

The substance of my post and the benefits of retaining your own free agents is hardly affected by this mistake. Being able to keep Brogdon would be a certainty, rather than something with a hint of doubt, but you still wouldn't be able to keep any of the others.

[trwi7]

The Bucks are 1 win shy of last year's win total at the all-star break.

[FVBrewerFan]

Irsan is making a case for keeping his minutes when Mirotic starts playing. I think they go big more often. Brown hasnt shown much lately, Wilson either really. Havent been awful or anything bit Mirotic's minutes have to come from somewhere.

[coolhandluke121]

Yeah, it makes sense that a contender would play Mirotic and Ersan over Brown and Wilson. Experience counts for a lot. Ersan always seems to shake off his prolonged slumps at this time of year, and Mirotic is just a terrific player for the modern NBA.

 

I think Wilson is going to be really good, but he looks too unsure of himself on offense. By contrast, Brown has no self-doubt and it's easy to love his approach, but I think he's got a bad case of chasing the ball too much. By the end of a possession, he's often completely out of position and somebody on the other team is taking a wide open 3. I think that's why adjusted on/off stats are so unkind to him despite him looking okay to a casual observer. BBIQ matters a lot and I'm not sure he has it. Ruben Patterson comparisons come to mind when I watch him play.

[brwrsfan]

He'll probably cut into a combination of Snell, Wilson and Brown. Which makes perfect sense. That said, I think all 3, particularly Wilson will be have roles come playoff times. Wilson can bring energy, defense and rebounding off the bench, if only for a few minutes. Stunning to write that after his first season here.

[FVBrewerFan]

BBIQ matters a lot and I'm not sure he has it. Ruben Patterson comparisons come to mind when I watch him play.

 

I think BBQ matters a lot to Sterling, pretty rare to see an NBA guard with a gut.

 

Question about what you have outlined above. What if Middleton, Bledsoe, Lopez don't accept the Bucks' offer and go somewhere else? Can the Bucks then use that salary slot/exemption to sign a FA?

[coolhandluke121]

I think BBQ matters a lot to Sterling, pretty rare to see an NBA guard with a gut.

 

Question about what you have outlined above. What if Middleton, Bledsoe, Lopez don't accept the Bucks' offer and go somewhere else? Can the Bucks then use that salary slot/exemption to sign a FA?

 

That's my only real concern. As long as the Bucks make competitive offers, I consider it pretty unlikely. There's just so much incentive on both sides to stay with the same team. Guys that walk usually have serious reasons for wanting to leave. By the way, you left Mirotic off that list, but they inherited his Bird Rights so he will have a cap hold and all the benefits that entails as well.

 

Even if one of them leaves, you still have to renounce free agent rights to several of the others to clear meaningful cap space. So no, they can't just use the $19.5 cap hold on Khris to sign someone else if Khris leaves. If Khris leaves, then the $19.5m cap hold is gone, but you still don't have any cap space because of the cap holds on Bledsoe, Brogdon, Mirotic, and the MLE (which is likely earmarked for Lopez). It's better to view the $19.5 cap hold as a placeholder giving you the right to go over the cap to keep Khris, but not to replace him.

 

The only way to justify an outside free agent is if you have reason to believe at least two of your unrestricted free agents want to leave even if you make competitive offers. And even if two of them want to leave, you have to make sure you're getting someone better than the other two combined. Not all the sparkly free agents out there are better than Bledsoe + Khris combined.

 

at BBQ. Can't believe I didn't think of that.

[long ball]

The more I read up on Middleton from the national media it feels like he definitely get a max deal. So if he's going to get max offers from other teams, there's really no reason imo for the Bucks to try and negotiate a minimal savings on his deal. Just offer him the max and I'm pretty sure he'll stay because he's got a good situation and financial incentive to stay.

 

The Bucks obviously really value Middleton. He and Giannis were the two players to meet with Bud before the hire. They view him as a franchise cornerstone.

[tmwiese55]

Max is 35ish mill. I'm still really skeptical he gets that, the people saying it are the same ones who were saying Jabari was gonna get 100 mil last offseason. Now, I know Khris is getting a legit 4 year big deal from someone, but this isn't the the cap boom of 3 years ago where every team has the space for it. I think if you offer him 4/100 at 12:01 he'd be crazy to say No while waiting to see what happens with the other top FAs in the pecking order above him. Maybe counter back at 4/110 and call it a day, then go party for a month straight.

[wallus]

Middleton is not worth the max. Just say no.

[FVBrewerFan]

Middleton is not worth the max. Just say no.

 

Then who takes his place? Brown? Wilson? Either of those options would be a big drop off.

[long ball]

CHL already laid this all out. They aren't going to be able to add the amount of talent to this team by renouncing their free agents.

 

If they don't keep or add enough talent to be finals contenders Giannis isn't going to sign that super max. Getting Giannis to sign that super max is really the only thing that matters and if he decides to leave this team is back to square one regardless.

[wallus]

Middleton is not worth the max. Just say no.

 

Then who takes his place? Brown? Wilson? Either of those options would be a big drop off.

 

This would be the 5 year max contract (approximately):

 

32.7

35.316

37.932

40.548

43.164

 

Use the MLE or draft a shooter with the first round pick. That contract would cripple the franchise moving forward. I like Khris and would love him back but that money is insane. I would sign the other FA's assuming they are asking for much more reasonable compensation. I'm not sure how much Mirotic (yes I know they don't play the same position) will be looking for but he seems like a much better value moving forward.

 

I'm not a huge Snell fan but we are already overpaying him and he could be a last resort starter. He shoots the three well; granted on frustratingly low volume. I would prefer to increase the usage of other guys if that is the option. Our bench is incredibly deep with DDV not even being active most nights.

[coolhandluke121]

With Khris, I think it's always been about conditioning and work ethic. He started coming to camp out of shape as soon as he got his 5-year, $70m contract. He wasn't even 25. That's a huge red flag. I see that getting worse, not better. It's taking him longer and longer to play his way into shape every season.

 

That said, this is the only real issue. Basically everything can be directly or indirectly explained by his poor conditioning. There is no issue with his ability or impact when he plays with energy. The people who characterize him as overrated or a B- talent are probably the same people who love guys who can dunk easily dunk from inside the circle or have a wicked crossover, regardless of their actual impact on the court. His skills are great for today's NBA, and anonymous surveys of professional talent evaluators always put him in the top 30-40 of the entire league. He lacks those wow plays, but so did Paul Pierce... and he has a lot more in common with Pierce than the guys like Klay Thompson and Richard Hamilton he's often compared to. Those guys are plenty good, but they can't carry an offense the way Khris can when he's not being sluggish.

 

That's why it's a real conundrum. Personally I wouldn't bet on him being "worth" his next contract, because he has shown up to camp out of shape every single year since his last extension. But I'd bet on him to be a whole hell of a lot better than Snell or Brown, and that's what matters. I mean we're not paying his salary, right?

[nate82]

With Khris, I think it's always been about conditioning and work ethic. He started coming to camp out of shape as soon as he got his 5-year, $70m contract. He wasn't even 25. That's a huge red flag. I see that getting worse, not better. It's taking him longer and longer to play his way into shape every season.

 

That said, this is the only real issue. Basically everything can be directly or indirectly explained by his poor conditioning. There is no issue with his ability or impact when he plays with energy. The people who characterize him as overrated or a B- talent are probably the same people who love guys who can dunk easily dunk from inside the circle or have a wicked crossover, regardless of their actual impact on the court. His skills are great for today's NBA, and anonymous surveys of professional talent evaluators always put him in the top 30-40 of the entire league. He lacks those wow plays, but so did Paul Pierce... and he has a lot more in common with Pierce than the guys like Klay Thompson and Richard Hamilton he's often compared to. Those guys are plenty good, but they can't carry an offense the way Khris can when he's not being sluggish.

 

That's why it's a real conundrum. Personally I wouldn't bet on him being "worth" his next contract, because he has shown up to camp out of shape every single year since his last extension. But I'd bet on him to be a whole hell of a lot better than Snell or Brown, and that's what matters. I mean we're not paying his salary, right?

 

Not sure where you are getting this information on Middleton for conditioning. Work ethic hasn't been an issue either. I haven't found a single article mentioning Middleton being out of shape.

[Mr Southpaw]

Middleton is not worth the max. Just say no.

 

Then who takes his place? Brown? Wilson? Either of those options would be a big drop off.

 

This would be the 5 year max contract (approximately):

 

32.7

35.316

37.932

40.548

43.164

 

Use the MLE or draft a shooter with the first round pick. That contract would cripple the franchise moving forward. I like Khris and would love him back but that money is insane. I would sign the other FA's assuming they are asking for much more reasonable compensation. I'm not sure how much Mirotic (yes I know they don't play the same position) will be looking for but he seems like a much better value moving forward.

 

I'm not a huge Snell fan but we are already overpaying him and he could be a last resort starter. He shoots the three well; granted on frustratingly low volume. I would prefer to increase the usage of other guys if that is the option. Our bench is incredibly deep with DDV not even being active most nights.

 

I like looking at the numbers and making my opinion from there. The top max is 5 years for about $200 million? Earlier someone said 4 years at about $110 should get it done. I think that is very reasonable. Almost doubling your salary is getting a lot of respect and shows that you still know who this team revolves around (w/o GA this team is not finals material).

 

Max contract ($200 million, no way on this earth) Reserved for the Freaks.

$150/5, I am very uncomfortable about year five.

$120/4, I am feeling better.

$110/4, very reasonable, I think this is about where it should be.

$100/4, I am very happy, under budget.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Not sure where you are getting this information on Middleton for conditioning. Work ethic hasn't been an issue either. I haven't found a single article mentioning Middleton being out of shape.

 

It's from watching him play. I'm sorry but I don't know how much more obvious it could be. He's a total slug to start every season, and has had at least one benching at some point for total lack of effort in the first few months of every season. That's a stamina thing. By the end of the year, he's usually playing pretty well again.

 

You can also see it in his body. These baggy uniforms can easily hide an extra 15-20 pounds of fat on a 6'7" person. That much fat only adds a few mm to the exposed parts of his arms and calves, so you won't see it if you're not looking carefully.

 

Doesn't matter if nobody says it. Nobody said it about Redd either. I remember trying to say he was too fat for years and people argued. He didn't look fat for an average person, but he was fat for a perimeter player. Then he finally admitted he was playing at 20% body fat for a few years and that's why he couldn't defend or rebound anymore. When Jabari was fat, the team photo-shopped him*. Teams hide this stuff. Players don't rat each other out. Even Anthony Mason wasn't called out for it publicly, and he was 330 pounds when he came to his first camp with the team.

 

*https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/3sgy67/the_milwaukee_bucks_use_photoshop_to_conceal/

 

There's no credibility to suggesting this is not an issue. It's literally an impossible conclusion if you're actually paying attention. He doesn't want to run off the ball, has lost a ton on defense (used to be one of the very best in the entire league), has to dribble with his back to the defender to save energy, and loves posting up for iso mid-range 2's because it doesn't require much effort.

 

This is not a normal progression for a professional athlete in his 20's with good off season conditioning and work habits:

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[nate82]

So based on nothing got it.

[RollieTime]

I think it’s pretty common for people to be pretty skinny when they are 16-21 year old and begin to bulk up when they are 22-25. Part of it could be his diet, but it’s also the maturation process of people reaching that age.

 

Stating that lack of effort and stamina go hand in hand with him being benched is false in my opinion. Lack of effort is throwing the ball away and not getting back on D to help out, not crashing the boards, not diving for a loose ball, letting a guy shoot an open shot and not getting out on him. That’s a lack of effort that Bud must of seen from Middleton and benched him for it. If it was stamina related, wouldn’t it make more sense to have him playing to build up his stamina? It’s also possible that Middleton has an attitude that Bud wanted to set straight and showed the team he isn’t going to tolerate that on this team.

 

I don’t see Middleton putting his back to the guy as a lack of effort and poor stamina either. I think that’s his way of protecting the ball. Him shooting a bunch of mid range 2’s isn’t because of stamina either. He lacks elite quickness and can’t beat a ton of guys to the basket. He relies on a quick first step and getting to his spot and pulling up. He’s a good mid range shooter, so I don’t see the issue here either. He has to play to his strengths and he does that.

[coolhandluke121]

If you can't see how much body fat he's added and how tired he gets when he plays, I can't make you see it. Guys do bulk up in their 20's, but not at the expense of tone.

[Jenkins5]

If you can't see how much body fat he's added and how tired he gets when he plays, I can't make you see it. Guys do bulk up in their 20's, but not at the expense of tone.

 

Filling out & bulking up are two completely different things & genetics/body type have a lot to do with it. He has filed out like Durant (but shorter). He is a 6’7 ectomoph body type who plays an endurance long twitch sport.... Not sure how much body building & research you have done on topic but his body will mature & add weight naturally but unless he is intentionally trying to get bigger by comunsuming very high amount of calories & adjust workouts to do so, muscle mass is hard to put on or keep on. That includes tone. In track he’d be an 800-1600m runner. Not sure if you have ever seen them before but they are thinner, some tone & skinny fat at worse...great athletes but body type & sport makes it very difficult to add muscle. He’s not fat or over weight. If he has extra weight it’s more natural fill out weight which is a mix or muscle and maybe few more percent of fat but not much. The size he has added still has him playing defense at high level & even if it’s not all solid weight, it helps him be more physical. I don’t think he is soft, he’s still pretty lean but again like Durant he’s not overly toned.

 

Overall, I respectfully completely disagree with most you have said about him. I haven’t noticed or read anything ever to support thought that he is carrying too much bad weight, in poor condition, or that he’s been benched due to any of that. However, everyone sees things differently.

[coolhandluke121]

Filling out & bulking up are two completely different things & genetics/body type have a lot to do with it. He has filed out like Durant (but shorter). He is a 6’7 ectomoph body type who plays an endurance long twitch sport.... Not sure how much body building & research you have done on topic but his body will mature & add weight naturally but unless he is intentionally trying to get bigger by comunsuming very high amount of calories & adjust workouts to do so, muscle mass is hard to put on or keep on. That includes tone. In track he’d be an 800-1600m runner. Not sure if you have ever seen them before but they are thinner, some tone & skinny fat at worse...great athletes but body type & sport makes it very difficult to add muscle. He’s not fat or over weight. If he has extra weight it’s more natural fill out weight which is a mix or muscle and maybe few more percent of fat but not much. The size he has added still has him playing defense at high level & even if it’s not all solid weight, it helps him be more physical. I don’t think he is soft, he’s still pretty lean but again like Durant he’s not overly toned.

 

Overall, I respectfully completely disagree with most you have said about him. I haven’t noticed or read anything ever to support thought that he is carrying too much bad weight, in poor condition, or that he’s been benched due to any of that. However, everyone sees things differently.

 

Durant doesn't lack definition though. He doesn't get tired on a regular basis and stop getting through screens or moving off the ball. This is not some theoretical thing or exercise sciene. I can easily see the extra body fat on Khris. The irony of pointing out that he's an ectomorph is that having such a slender frame just makes it much harder to see the extra fat a guy has added. They simply don't look big, but sometimes it's there. Henson was the same way. It's subtle but you can see extra fat between his biceps and his rotator cuff, or in his hips and glutes when he walks.

 

I have a very similar experience. I was always 140-150 pounds, ran 5-minute miles in college, had about 5% body fat, and wasn't particularly weak either (could bench 185 several times). I am 40 now and I've gained close to 20 pounds of fat. When I tell people I've gotten fatter, they just say it's ridiculous because I look skinny. I used to think they were just trying to be nice (I've always hated how people deny a person's experience that way), but now I realize many of them really can't see it. I still look slender and fit to an untrained eye but believe me, I am a shell of my former self. The effect on my energy levels and stamina and the wear and tear on my joints is absurd. People with frames like mine just should not add fat, period. It's a dramatic difference. And I see exactly that with Khris every time he plays. I at least didn't let that happen until my early 30's, and I'm not even remotely a professional athlete.

 

I would bet my salary Khris has conditioning issues and would be a lot better if he stayed in better shape in the off season. I still think he's the 3rd-best player on the team, but this is a concern going into his next contract because his natural metabolism is only getting slower. It's been an issue since he got his current contract.

[LouisEly]

I am 40 now and I've gained close to 20 pounds of fat. When I tell people I've gotten fatter, they just say it's ridiculous because I look skinny. I used to think they were just trying to be nice (I've always hated how people deny a person's experience that way), but now I realize many of them really can't see it. I still look slender and fit to an untrained eye but believe me, I am a shell of my former self. The effect on my energy levels and stamina and the wear and tear on my joints is absurd.

That is as much a function of turning 40 as it is the 20 lbs you've gained, particularly the energy and stamina. For me it was ~38. I'm about 10-15 lbs lighter than when I was 38, and my energy and stamina are definitely lower than when I was 38. There's a reason even the most elite athletes retire in their late 30's. The body just can't do what it used to, particularly recovery and energy.

[coolhandluke121]

That is as much a function of turning 40 as it is the 20 lbs you've gained, particularly the energy and stamina. For me it was ~38. I'm about 10-15 lbs lighter than when I was 38, and my energy and stamina are definitely lower than when I was 38. There's a reason even the most elite athletes retire in their late 30's. The body just can't do what it used to, particularly recovery and energy.

 

Sure, that's part of it. Wasn't really making a point about age though. Just pointing out that it's hard to tell when a person with a very slender frame has added too much body fat. People keep saying Khris doesn't look like he's gotten fat at all, and people say the same thing about me, but it's plainly visible if you know what to look for. I've noticed some of the most athletic people can tell right away, whereas weekend warriors and regular people can't. Maybe the fact that this is more of a baseball forum explains why people have trouble discerning the difference, because Khris's body fat and conditioning would hardly make a difference in baseball.

 

Age, excess weight, and conditioning are all factors. Khris is very sluggish and lethargic compared to before his current contract. He's lost a lot of agility. He often gets some of it back towards the end of the season (last year's playoffs for example, or his run at the end of 2016). Combine that with the thin layer of excess fat he's carrying and it paints a clear picture of someone who uses the regular season to get in shape, as opposed to being ready to go at the start of training camp.

 

As for "never hearing anything about", when did anyone ever hear about it with Redd, Bogut, or Jabari? Teams, players, and coaches never talk about this until after the fact. It's frankly embarrassing. Plenty of fans noticed it, but you still never heard about it from anyone but them.

[homer]

If you can't see how much body fat he's added and how tired he gets when he plays, I can't make you see it. Guys do bulk up in their 20's, but not at the expense of tone.

 

I think there's some confirmation bias at work here. Just playing the number of minutes he plays in games would get him in decent shape not to mention practice time.