2018-05-14: Brewers (Guerra) at Diamondbacks (Corbin) 8:40 PM CDT [Brewers win, 7-2]

[MNBrew]

He's also never been this hitter until just this year. It's still early and I'm still very inclined to believe it's just a bad slump rather than the end of good-hitting Ryan Braun.

[pacopete4]

Braun is a sunk cost. At this point the Brewers have more to gain by not playing him than simply saying "we're paying him, so we may as well play him."

 

The guy isn't "our best hitter when healthy", he's not even one of the five best hitters on this team anymore.

 

Advanced data says hold off on this hot take. But you have a right to your opinion.

 

 

At some point, results matter. Dude looks lost at the plate. I don't care about "exit velocity". Cool, he's hitting some hard foul balls and fly outs. He's OBP-ing about .270 and hitting 3rd, and playing every day that he doesn't have a stubbed toe or a tweaked hammy, and making outs 75% of the time in the 3 spot.

 

Well of course results matter. But it’s still very early to just simply have the take you’re doing right now. On anyone. Either the advanced data shows us there will be an adjustmemt in his numbers or they won’t and Counsell will make an adjustment down the road. Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

[wildcat83]

At least for tonight

 

Brewers Bullpen > Dbacks Bullpen

[xisxisxis]

Thankfully Braun was too stiff to play today, otherwise, tonight’s MVP would have been sitting on the bench...

That's your takeaway from this game? I gotta find the ignore feature on this site.

Put one hand on each shoulder palm side up... push up as hard as you can... once your head clears you should be able to find it...

[Eye Black]

I am a big believer in Taylor Williams developing into a very valuable piece in this bullpen by season’s end.

[wallus]

I am a big believer in Taylor Williams developing into a very valuable piece in this bullpen by season’s end.

 

I agree but I think he will give up a lot of homers.

[Bulldogboy]

I can see the Braun conversation from both sides. That said the track record is too long to be ignored and you just feel like if he can get it together this offense will be dynamic. It isn't in his contract to bat three though. If he needs to be moved down so be it.

[pacopete4]

If Williams stays away from walks, he will be just fine. Granted, you could say that about a lot of guys I suppose.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Well of course results matter. But it’s still very early to just simply have the take you’re doing right now. On anyone. Either the advanced data shows us there will be an adjustmemt in his numbers or they won’t and Counsell will make an adjustment down the road. Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

I'm not panicked at all. I'm just glad that there's better options to play than a 34 year old glass man who can't stay healthy and isn't the hitter he used to be. At the very least it's time for Counsell to take the guy out of the 3 spot when he plays.

[wildcat83]

Before this 10 game trip started if someone said they’d win 4 games I would’ve been ok with it. Not thrilled obviously but not terrible. Tough teams on a long trip. Now we’re there halfway through the trip.

[pacopete4]

 

Well of course results matter. But it’s still very early to just simply have the take you’re doing right now. On anyone. Either the advanced data shows us there will be an adjustmemt in his numbers or they won’t and Counsell will make an adjustment down the road. Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

I'm not panicked at all. I'm just glad that there's better options to play than a 34 year old glass man who can't stay healthy and isn't the hitter he used to be. At the very least it's time for Counsell to take the guy out of the 3 spot when he plays.

 

Counsell will let you know when it is time.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Well of course results matter. But it’s still very early to just simply have the take you’re doing right now. On anyone. Either the advanced data shows us there will be an adjustmemt in his numbers or they won’t and Counsell will make an adjustment down the road. Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

I'm not panicked at all. I'm just glad that there's better options to play than a 34 year old glass man who can't stay healthy and isn't the hitter he used to be. At the very least it's time for Counsell to take the guy out of the 3 spot when he plays.

 

Counsell will let you know when it is time.

 

It's already time.

[xisxisxis]

Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

Or, was the regression last year not due to injuries, but the beginning of his age related curve? Maybe Braun’s success was driven mostly by his talent and as his talent is fading he needs to adjust better than he has. How he adjusts to slower reflexes and bat speed may be the key to what happens the rest of this year and the next 2...

[pacopete4]

 

Counsell will let you know when it is time.

 

It's already time.

 

Now I hope he keeps him there just because of the way you’re acting. Too funny.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Counsell will let you know when it is time.

 

It's already time.

 

Now I hope he keeps him there just because of the way you’re acting. Too funny.

 

I'm glad you're amused.

[pacopete4]

Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

Or, was the regression last year not due to injuries, but the beginning of his age related curve? Maybe Braun’s success was driven mostly by his talent and as his talent is fading he needs to adjust better than he has. How he adjusts to slower reflexes and bat speed may be the key to what happens the rest of this year and the next 2...

 

 

Very well could be. At least a combination of this plus some hard luck. He definitely needs to get back to some better disciplined at bats but when I see things like:

 

-“Ryan Braun has a .250 BABIP which is basically a career low, on a 20.6 line drive percentage, which is almost a career high.”

-“Less subjectively, his average exit velocity thus far on liners and fly balls is 97.5 mph. That ranks 25th out of 379 hitters (min 25 AB). While exit velocity isn't exactly predictive, it does suggest his .250 BABIP is a load of crap.”

 

It makes me feel a heck of a lot better about his odds to come out of this slumber and help this team this season.

[SomewhereInTime]

Braun is a sunk cost. At this point the Brewers have more to gain by not playing him than simply saying "we're paying him, so we may as well play him."

 

The guy isn't "our best hitter when healthy", he's not even one of the five best hitters on this team anymore.

 

Advanced data says hold off on this hot take. But you have a right to your opinion.

 

 

At some point, results matter. Dude looks lost at the plate. I don't care about "exit velocity". Cool, he's hitting some hard foul balls and fly outs. He's OBP-ing about .270 and hitting 3rd, and playing every day that he doesn't have a stubbed toe or a tweaked hammy, and making outs 75% of the time in the 3 spot.

 

Did you see what Paul Goldschmidt's numbers look like so far this year? Give it more than a month for guys with proven track records.

[SomewhereInTime]

Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

Or, was the regression last year not due to injuries, but the beginning of his age related curve? Maybe Braun’s success was driven mostly by his talent and as his talent is fading he needs to adjust better than he has. How he adjusts to slower reflexes and bat speed may be the key to what happens the rest of this year and the next 2...

 

 

Very well could be. At least a combination of this plus some hard luck. He definitely needs to get back to some better disciplined at bats but when I see things like:

 

-“Ryan Braun has a .250 BABIP which is basically a career low, on a 20.6 line drive percentage, which is almost a career high.”

-“Less subjectively, his average exit velocity thus far on liners and fly balls is 97.5 mph. That ranks 25th out of 379 hitters (min 25 AB). While exit velocity isn't exactly predictive, it does suggest his .250 BABIP is a load of crap.”

 

It makes me feel a heck of a lot better about his odds to come out of this slumber and help this team this season.

 

Agreed

[young guns]

The Dbacks are terrified of a double steal, they don't take any chances

Was this pc's plan all along when he ran the double steal a few times early in the season. Now he gets a free steal every time it's first and third?

 

Stupid late game made me miss all the fun.

 

Have we passed them for best bullpen yet?

[adambr2]

I've seen the Goldschmidt comparisons a few times and its frankly just not a very good one. First and foremost Goldschmidt is 30, Braun is 34. While it would be possible to have an age related decline at 30 it's far far more likely at 34.

 

Secondly Goldschmidt's recent seasons have been far far better than Braun's. Even though Braun had good seasons in 2015 and 2016 Goldschmidt still blew those out of the water with seasons that Braun hasn't been at the level at in 6 years.

 

Thirdly Goldschmidt is at least still reaching base 34% of the time and is amazingly on pace for over 3 WAR while Braun is playing at below replacement level.

 

All that said, I have little doubt Braun will be better than this -- he is not THIS bad. Still, I think people need to significantly lower their expectations of Braun. People still see a franchise star when the reality is that his ceiling is probably at this point in his career much more that of an average corner outfielder who will carry the team offensively at times and also have terrible slumps at other times like right now.

[Pugger]

If Braun can't play, then Yelich needs to be in there, even if it is a "scheduled" day off.

 

I was really hoping to not see Perez in the outfield at all this year. Clearly that was wishful thinking.

 

Its almost getting so we'd rather have Perez out there instead of Braun...

[coolhandluke121]

Said it before, I’m glad the Brewers don’t panic like we do. It pays off a lot of the time.

 

Or, was the regression last year not due to injuries, but the beginning of his age related curve? Maybe Braun’s success was driven mostly by his talent and as his talent is fading he needs to adjust better than he has. How he adjusts to slower reflexes and bat speed may be the key to what happens the rest of this year and the next 2...

 

 

Very well could be. At least a combination of this plus some hard luck. He definitely needs to get back to some better disciplined at bats but when I see things like:

 

-“Ryan Braun has a .250 BABIP which is basically a career low, on a 20.6 line drive percentage, which is almost a career high.”

-“Less subjectively, his average exit velocity thus far on liners and fly balls is 97.5 mph. That ranks 25th out of 379 hitters (min 25 AB). While exit velocity isn't exactly predictive, it does suggest his .250 BABIP is a load of crap.”

 

It makes me feel a heck of a lot better about his odds to come out of this slumber and help this team this season.

 

I definitely agree with the person who said he's glad the Brewers don't rush to these decisions. I think they give players a fair amount of time before they make changes. Players would lose respect for management if they made impulsive decisions based on slumps.

 

That said, it's probably more than a slump for Braun. He's at that age where it would be more unusual for him to bounce back than it would for him to be a shell of his former self more often than not. More importantly, they probably have 5 guys who are significantly better than him right now at OF/1B... and if you know what I think of Aguilar's chances of maintaining his production (still at a .383 babip on lower hard contact rates than last year), you know how hard that is for me to say.

 

Lastly, the batted ball stuff is not the end-all, be-all. You need more context. His k% is a whopping 5% higher than his career averages, his k/bb ratio is 30% lower, and he often looks like a drunk softball player at the plate. What's going on is probably the same thing that happened to A-Rod towards the end:

 

lower bat speed ---> starting swing a split-second sooner ---> solid power on contact, especially with fastballs ---> respectable slugging

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut ----> swinging too soon on off-speed stuff ---> chasing bad pitches ---> horrible OBP ---> bad player

 

Don't hold your breath waiting for the babip and hard contact rates to give him some kind of huge boost.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Predict that Braun has about a month where he flat-out carries the offense.

[Pugger]

He's also never been this hitter until just this year. It's still early and I'm still very inclined to believe it's just a bad slump rather than the end of good-hitting Ryan Braun.

 

I hope you are right but it is rather sad watching him strike out so much.